Wikileaks: Governu Estadus Unidus no Timor-Leste

[Link to this blog entry in English.]

Iha semana balun liu ba, Wikileaks publika sira nia koleksaun tomak husi kabela eletronika konfidensial nian liu 250,000 ne’ebe sira hetan husi Departamentu Estadu (Ministeriu Negocios Estrangeiros) Estadus Unidus nian. Dokumentus sira ne’e nudar fontes ka janela ne’ebe molok ne’e nunka mais akontese kona-ba Governu Estadus Unidus nian, liu-liu nia embaixada sira, ba observa no influensia nasaun sira seluk.

Website Wikileaks nian susar atu asesu (no server balun blokeia website ne’e, inklui server sira iha Departamentu Estadu nian rasik), tamba ne’e La’o Hamutuk publika sai lista husi kabela eletronika 391 ne’ebe iha relasaun ba Timor-Leste. Ami liga ba tekstu kompletu nian no publika tiha balun ne’ebe interesante liu iha format PDF ne’ebe bele download.

Kabela eletronika sira ne’e husi inisiu 2006 to’o iha inisiu 2010, hatudu katak Estadus Unidus iha interaksaun ho Timor-Leste iha dalan balun ne’ebe interesante, inklui diskusaun barak ho partisipantes nivel altu iha krize 2006. Ida be’e foun liu mak, Embaixada Estadus Unidus nian fo korajem ba boa-governasaun, sustentabilidade no justisa. Maibe iha tempu ne’ebe hanesan, Estadus Unidus husu ba Timor-Leste atu suporta pozisaun Estadus Unidus nian ba asuntu sira hanesan Kuba no Mudansa Klimatika ne’ebe dalaruma kontrariu ho povo Timor nia hakarak.

Embaixador Hans Klemm hatudu hodi halo advokasia ida ba rai ida ne’e, hodi husu ba Washington atu kansela Alerta de Viagem iha Setembru 2008, no halo advokasia atu kontinua fundu MCC nian ba Timor-Leste. Nia no Embaixada iha Jakarta husu ba ofisiais Indonezia no Timor-Leste atu fo dalan ba prosesu julgamentu tribunal nian ba lider milisia Maternus Bere ne’ebe hetan tiha ona akuzasaun, no konsistente ho Konstituisaun no lei. Estadus Unidus mos diskoraje ho kriminalizasaun ba defamasaun no uza perdaun ba ema barak, no lei amnestia nian ne’ebe hanesan atu kua tiha direitus umanus no estadu de direitu demokratiku.

Maske iha balun mak preokupa liu atu uza rumores no gosip iha kabela eletronika ida ne’e ba sira nia vantajem politiku, ka atu defende sira nia an hodi kontra observasaun honestu nian, La’o Hamutuk espera katak kabela eletronika sira ne’e sei uza ho konstrutivu liu, iha dalan ne’ebe obyektivu. Por ezemplu, ami kontente atu hare kabela ida husi fin de tinan 2008, Projeitu boot no aprovisionamentu governu iha Timor-Leste, ekspresa preokupasaun barak ne’ebe hanesan ho sira ne’ebe La’o Hamutuk preokupa kona-ba projeitu eletrisidade nasional:

Wikileaks: U.S. Govt and Timor-Leste

A few weeks ago, Wikileaks published their entire collection of more than 250,000 leaked U.S. State Department cables on the internet. They are an unprecedented window into how the U.S. Government, especially its embassies, observes and influences other countries.

The Wikileaks website can be difficult to access (and is blocked by some servers, including those of the State Department itself), so La'o Hamutuk has posted the list of 391 cables related to Timor-Leste. We link to all the full texts and have posted some of the most interesting ones as downloadable PDFs.

The cables, from early 2006 through early 2010, show that the U.S. has interacted with Timor-Leste in some interesting ways, including many discussions with high-level participants in the 2006 crisis.  More recently, the U.S. embassy has encouraged good governance, sustainability, and justice. At the same time, it urged Timor-Leste to support U.S. positions on issues such as Cuba and Climate Change which may be contradictory to the Timorese people's wishes.

Ambassador Hans Klemm appears to have been an advocate for this country, urging Washington to cancel its travel warning in September 2008, and encouraging the continuation of MCC funding for Timor-Leste. He and the U.S. embassy in Jakarta urged Indonesia and Timor-Leste officials to allow the prosecution of indicted militia leader Maternus Bere to proceed, consistent with the Constitution and the law.  The U.S. also discouraged criminalizing defamation and the widespread use of pardons and the amnesty law as undercutting human rights and the rule of law.

Although some are rushing to use the occasional rumors and gossip in the cables to their political advantage, or to defend themselves against honest observations, La'o Hamutuk hopes that they will be used in more constructive, objective ways. For example, we're glad to see that a cable from the end of 2008, Major Projects and Government Procurement in Timor-Leste, expressed many of the same concerns that La'o Hamutuk has been raising about the national electricity project:

Thoughts for the regional EITI Conference in Dili

On 25-26 August, the Government of Timor-Leste hosted a regional conference of the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI), attended by civil society, government representatives, oil companies and development partners from Asia, the Fragile States, and elsewhere. For more information on EITI and the conference, click here.

La'o Hamutuk observed that much time was given to appreciation and congratulations, with little discussion of the hard work needed to avoid the "resource curse," or of recent developments in Timor-Leste which make it more likely that our finite, non-renewable petroleum wealth may be misused. We distributed some thoughts to participants near the end of the conference -- click here for our 5-page statement in Tetum or English or continue for an edited version, with links and graphics.

Hanoin balu ba konferensia rejional EITI iha Dili

Iha loron 25-26 Agustu, Governu Timor-Leste sai uma nain ba konferensia rejional Inisiativa Transparensia iha Industria Ekstrativa (EITI), partisipa husi sosiedade sivil, reprezentante Governu, kompania petroleu no parseiru dezenvolvimentu husi Azia, Estadu Frajil, no sira seluk tan. Atu hetan informasaun tan kona-ba EITI no konferensia ne’e, klik iha ne’e.

La’o Hamutuk observa katak tempu barak uza atu ba halo apresiasaun no kongratulasaun, ho diskusaun oituan ba servisu boot ne’ebe presiza atu evita “Malisan Rekursu,” ka dezenvolvimentu atual iha Timor-Leste ne’ebe bele halo ita nia rekursu nau-petroleu ne’ebe limitadu ne’e  uza lalos. Ami fahe hanoin balu ba partisipantes sira bainhira konferensia ne’e besik atu remata. Klik iha ne’e atu hetan ami nia statementu ho pajina 5 iha Tetum ka Ingles ka kontinua atu hetan versaun hadika nian, ho ligasaun no grafiku balun.

LH observations for Donors' Conference

La'o Hamutuk distributed some ideas to the Development Partners meeting, along with our initial comments on the Strategic Development Plan. The following is the introduction and extracts from our statement; the full text is on our website.

For more than a decade, La’o Hamutuk, as a Timor-Leste civil society organization, has been observing and analyzing the activities of Timor-Leste’s development partners and decision-makers as this nation emerges from war and occupation into peace and democracy.

La’o Hamutuk appreciates your hard work to make international assistance to Timor-Leste more effective, and we have observed improvement since 2000. During that time, the global aid community has learned lessons.

We have written a separate paper with our preliminary observations on the Strategic Development Plan.  This paper complements that one. Some of our comments refer to the “Principles for Good International Engagement in Fragile States and Situations,” but we are writing specifically about Timor-Leste.

Main points

• Please understand Timor-Leste’s complete context.
• Ongoing impunity makes this democratic state more fragile.
• Timor-Leste is a petro-state without much petroleum.
• External debt will make Timor-Leste more fragile.
• The Resource Curse is a key element of Timor-Leste’s context and fragility.
• Security is more than the “security sector.”
• Statebuilding is not the only objective.
• Prioritize prevention with long-term planning and earlier-warning analysis.

LH nia komentariu kona-ba Planu Estratejiku Dezenvolvimentu

[This page in English]

Ida ne’e nudar sumário husi analiza inisial ba Planu Estratejiku Dezenvolviment (Ing ka Port.). Maske ami simu planu ne’e deit iha loron lima kotuk, Governu ezizi katak Parlamentu atu aprova planu ne’e ohin loron, tamba ne’e ami prepara komentariu atu informa sira nia diskusaun no Enkontru Parseiru Dezenvolvimentu. Ami nia komentariu pajina 14 ne’e (also English) inklui pontus importante tuir ma, aleinde atu foka sai omisoes, erru no asumsaun invalidu sira:

• Planu Estratejiku Dezenvolvimentu (PED) ne’e nudar dokumentus importante, no halo mudansa barak ba versaun ne’ebe sirkula iha tinan kotuk. Maske, ne’e dokumentus boot, ho ideias foun barak, ne’ebe presiza duni diskusaun ida ne’ebe klean molok hetan aprovasaun. Ami hare katak ida ne’e iresponsavel katak Konsellu Ministru aprova planu ne’e hafoin ekontru kalan tomak, no ida ne’e sei sai inkonstitusional  ba Parlamentu atu aprova planu ne’e menus semana ida hafoin sira simu esbosu ne’e husi Governu.
• Planu ne’e inklui fokus ba kapital sosial nian, laos deit infraestrutura fiziku hanesan diskusaun sira ne’ebe akontese iha tinan balun liu ba. Ami hein katak orsamentu futuru nian sei refleita ba ida ne’e, no osan balun husi 52% Orsamentu Jeral Estadu 2011 ne’ebe aloka ba infraestrutura fiziku nian sei aloka fila fali ba edukasaun no saude.
• Ami aseita katak planu ida ne’e laos orsamentu ida, maibe planu ne’e presiza ba atu liu fali mehi ida, no tenke inklui informasaun barak tan kona-ba oinsa atu finansia kustu planu ne’e no osan sira ne’e mai husi ne’ebe. Partikularmente, ami preokupa liu katak PED sei finansia liu husi halo divida, maibe iha dokumentu ne’e iha deit referensia oan ida, ne’ebe la spesifiku.
• PED ne’e totalmente ignora tiha defisit komersiu Timor-Leste nian ne’ebe maka’as tebes ne’e, ho prioridade oituan atu hamenus importasaun. Ida ne’e inklui mos informasaun sala kona-ba matrikula eskola nian, inflasaun no dependensia ba petroleu. Ne’e optimistiku ne’ebe injustifikavel kona-ba posibilidade deskobrimentu kampu mina-rai nian iha futuru, exportasaun ba ASEAN, redusaun kresimentu populasaun nian.
• PED tenke fokus liu ba infraestrutura humana no intelektual ba edukasaun (konstrusaun seidauk sufisiente), hadiak kualidade no mos kuantidade edukasaun, no suporta nesesidade Timor-Leste no ita nia povo sira, laos deit empregadores ne’ebe posivel.
• Diskusaun pozitivu kona-ba protesaun ambiental iha PED ne’e hetan ameasa husi numeru  projeitu ne’ebe perigozu ba ambiental ne’ebe dadauk ne’e lao hela lahoo analiza ba impaktu ambiental.
• Analiza, informasaun no prioridade tan tenke foka ba enerzia renovavel.
• Lei ba rai tenke rekonhese injustisa kolonial, sistema titulu nian labele fo amesa ba direitu rai nian ka halo diskriminasaun hasoru rikeza agrikultor kiak sira. Presiza liu tan konsultasaun kona-ba lei ba Rai, no Lei no PED tenke konsidera valor lolos husi rai ba povo sira, laos deit nia util ba investor sira.
• Justisa Ekonomiku ba povo tomak, laos deit eradikasaun ba pobreza extrema, maibe tenke sai planu ekonomiku ida ne’ebe objektivu.
• Agrikultura tenke promove soberani aihan. Agrikultura organiku, sustentavel, hamoris produtu sura ba konsumu lokal, tenke hetan prioridade, no agrikultor sira tenke involve iha kualker nivel atu halo desizaun ka implementasaun nian. “Revolusaun Matak” Modelo industrial, agrikultura ho entrada altu sei fo impaktu negativu ba tempu naruk
• Timor-Leste presiza vizaun ida ne’ebe luan kona-ba dezenvolvimentu ekonomia. Desde iha ne’eba iha konsensu katak Timor-Leste presiza atu muda husi dependensia ba petroleu iha longo prazu, ami sente la diak katak prosesamentu petroleu mak uniku dezenvolvimentu industrial ne’ebe diskute. Oinsa ho prosesamentu agrukultura nian, ka industria kiik sira atu troka produtu sira ne’ebe importa? Kapital industria petroleu ne’ebe intensivu sei fo servisu oituan ba ema hotu, inklui Timor oan sira. Aloka ita nia intelektual hotu no rekursu finanseiru ba seitor petroleum obstrui mudansa ba ekonomia naun-petroleu hafoin rezerva mina-rai no gas hotu iha tinan 13 tan
• Prosesu dadaun atu halo revizaun ba Lei Fundu Petroleu, kria kompania mina-rai nasional TimorGAP, investe maka’as iha estudu fisibilidade  ba Koridor Petroleu Tasi Mane kontrariu ho tarjeitu planu nian no halo dependensia ba petroleu ida ne’ebe at liu tan no ameasa husi instabilidade ekonomia tempu naruk nian. Sira presiza atu realiza ho kuidadu liu, no iha ekilibru kontra ideias no nesesidade husi seitor seluk
• Aumenta turismu presiza esforsu ne’ebe maka’as duke hari infraestrutura fiziku.
• Investimentu seitor privadu sira tenke fo benefisiu, laos atu uza hotu rekursu povo nian. Kua taxa, zona ekonomia special no favour seluk ba bisnis estranjeiru nian imposivel atu produs vantazem ba ita nia povo. Investimentu estadu nain iha atividade bisnis nian, hanesan Tasi Mane no importasaun fos, presiza analiza ida ne’ebe kuidadu husi nia kustu no benefisiu nian.
• Planu seitor seguransa tenke serve ba interese nasional, rekursu umanu no orsamental ne’ebe gasta ona ba F-FDTL bele aloka fila fali bainhira ameasa husi rai-liur kiik
• Jestaun seitor publiku no boa-governasaun sei haforsa liu tan husi dezenha strutura institusional atu luta kontra korupsaun, no haforsa sistema-luan Governu nian ba orsamentu, aprovizionamentu, kontratu, salariu no informasaun publika nian iha ajensia estadu tomak nia laran.
• Maske seksaun makroekonomiku ne’e diak liu ona duke esbosu primeiru, maibe ida ne’e nafatin iha frakeza, no presiza fokus liu tan ba natureza rendimentu riku-soin rekursu naun renovavel. Grafika ne’e onestu liu tan kona-ba dependensia petroleum, inflasaun, kresimentu populasaun no planu ba gastus no imprestimus iha futuru hodi finansia planu ida ne’e.
• Ita labele fiar katak Timor-Leste bele atinzi real, longu prazu, GDP naun-petroleu annual nuan iha 11.3%, liu fali nasaun sira seluk nia istoria dadaun. Exepsaun Xina, nasaun sira ho performa diak liu tan atinzi deit 6.5%-7.5% no ne’e la imazinavel atu ekspeta Timor-Leste bele iha kresimentu dala rua liu fali buat ne’ebe sira bele. Nivel rapida atual nian eskalada  husi gastus publiku nian, motor principal ba ita nia ekonomia, imposivel atu sustentar.

Informasaun seluk, inklui proposta PED no tekstu tomak husi ami nia komentariu, bele hetan iha La’o Hamutuk nia pajina web iha Ingles no Tetum.

LH comment on Strategic Development Plan

[Pajina ida ne'e iha Tetum.]

This is a summary of La’o Hamutuk’s initial analysis of the proposed Strategic Development Plan (SDP) (also Portuguese). Although we only received the 230-page document only five days ago, the Government demands that Parliament approve it today, so we hope to inform their discussion and the Development Partners Meeting. The following are important points in our 13-page commentary (also Tetum), which also identifies omissions, errors and invalid assumptions in the SDP:

• The Strategic Development Plan (SDP) is an important document, and is greatly improved over the version circulated last year. However, it is a large document, with many new ideas, and deserves thorough discussion before being enacted. We find it irresponsible that the Council of Ministers approved it after an all-night meeting, and it would be unconstitutional for Parliament to approve it less than a week after they received it.
• The Plan includes a welcome focus on social capital, not only physical infrastructure as pervaded last year’s discussions. We hope that future budget priorities reflect this, and that some of the 52% of the 2011 State Budget allocated to physical infrastructure will be redirected to education and health.
• We agree that a plan is not a budget, but it needs to be more than a dream, and should include more information about what it will cost and where the money will come from. In particular, we are concerned that the SDP will be financed by taking out loans, but there is only a passing reference to this in the document, with no specifics.
• The SDP totally ignores Timor-Leste’s mammoth trade deficit, with little priority to reducing imports. It includes incorrect information about school enrollment, inflation, and petroleum dependency. It is unjustifiably optimistic regarding possible future oil discoveries, exports to ASEAN, reducing population growth,.
• The SDP should focus more on human and intellectual infrastructure for education (buildings are not enough), improving the quality as well as the quantity of education, and supporting the needs of Timor-Leste and our people, not just possible employers.
• The SDP’s positive discussion of environmental protection is threatened by a number of environmentally dangerous projects currently underway with no environmental review.
• More analysis, information and priority should be given to renewable energy.
• Land laws must recognize colonial injustices, and titling systems should not endanger land rights or discriminate against cash-poor farmers. More consultation is needed on the Land Law, and the Law and the SDP should consider the true value of land for people, not only its use by investors.
• Economic justice for all our people, not only the eradication of extreme poverty, should be the plan’s economic objective.
• Agriculture should promote food sovereignty. Organic, sustainable agriculture, growing products for local consumption, should be the priority, and farmers must be involved at every level of decision-making and implementation. The “Green Revolution” model of industrial, high-input agriculture has severe negative impacts in the long term.
• Timor-Leste needs a broader vision of economic development. Since there is consensus that Timor-Leste needs to move away from oil-dependency in the long-term, we are disappointed that petroleum processing is the only industrial development discussed. What about agricultural processing, or light industry to replace imported products? The capital-intensive oil industry will provide few jobs for anyone, including Timorese. Allocating most of our intellectual and financial resources to the petroleum sector obstructs moving to a non-oil economy after oil and gas reserves are used up in 13 years.
• Current processes to revise the Petroleum Fund Law, create the TimorGAP national oil company, and invest heavily in feasibility studies for the Tasi Mane Petroleum Corridor contradict the goals of the plan and exacerbate our dependence on petroleum and the danger of long-term economic instability. They need to be undertaken with more care, and balanced against ideas and needs of other sectors.
• Increasing tourism requires more effort than merely building physical infrastructure.
• Private sector investment should provide benefit, not use up people’s resources. Tax cuts, special economic zones and other favors for foreign businesses are unlikely to produce advantages for our people. State investment in business activities, such as Tasi Mane and rice importation, needs more careful analysis of its costs and benefits.
• The security sector plans should serve the national interest. Human and budgetary resources spent on F-FDTL can be reallocated as external threats become smaller.
• Public Sector management and good governance will be strengthened by designing institutional structures to resist corruption, and by having all state agencies use strengthened, government-wide systems for budgeting, procurement, hiring, salaries and public information.
• Although the Macroeconomics section is better than earlier drafts, it is still weak, and needs more focus on the temporary nature of non-renewable resource wealth revenues. It should be more honest about oil dependency, inflation, population growth and plans for future spending and borrowing to finance this plan.
• It is inconceivable that Timor-Leste can achieve real, long-term, annual non-oil GDP growth of 11.3%, higher than any country in recent history. Other than China, the best performing countries have grown 6.5% - 7.5%, and it is wishful thinking to expect Timor-Leste to grow nearly twice as fast as they could. Current rapidly escalating levels of public spending, the primary driver for our economy, are impossible to sustain.

Additional information and analysis, including the proposed SDP and the full text of our comments, is available from La’o Hamutuk’s website in English and Tetum, which we will continue to update.