TL slightly improves in UNDP Human Development Index

For more information, including detailed explanations, links and tables, see La'o Hamutuk's web page on this report, no mos iha Tetum.

Since 1990, the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) has issued its Human Development Report almost every year. The edition published on 14 March 2013 is entitled The Rise of the South: Human Progress in a Diverse World, and includes important trends and examples of developing countries in the South improving the lives of their people. In addition to the thematic discussion and a wealth of statistical data on health, education, gender, economics and other aspects of human society, the UNDP calculates a “Human Development Index” (HDI) for each country. The HDI combines life expectancy, education (years of school enrollment) and income (Gross National  Income/GNI per capita) to produce a composite measure of human development.

The new report, based mainly on data from 2011, calculates a 2012 HDI for Timor-Leste of 0.576. UNDP categorizes Timor-Leste in the "medium human development group," ranking 134th of 187 countries with data. See UNDP's Timor-Leste-specific press release, statistical summary and explanatory note which provides detail for the general discussion in the previous paragraph. We also posted UNDP's global data spreadsheet (slightly enhanced by La'o Hamutuk). It is a gold mine with data on hundreds of indicators for nearly 200 countries and territories.

Although Timor-Leste moved up 13 rank positions compared with last year's 2011 report, UNDP cautions not to compare reports published at different times. Using a revised methodology and updated data for prior years, UNDP recalculated Timor-Leste's 2011 HDI to be 0.571, and our 2010 HDI is now 0.565. Timor-Leste's ranking did not change; we ranked 134 out of 187 countries in 2010, 2011 and 2012. LUSA and other media reported this incorrectly, but UNDP had explained it clearly.

The slight HDI improvement over the last two years is largely because GNI (gross national income per capita, adjusted for inflation) increased from $4,700 to $5,400 between 2010 and 2012, and because people are living a little longer. Three-fourths of our GNI is petroleum revenues, which do not go directly to Timorese individuals. The larger HDI gains since 2000 and 2005 reflect that oil revenues were zero in 2000 and have increased five-fold since 2005, as the green dotted line on the graph above shows.

UNDP also calculates a Multi-Dimensional Poverty Index (MPI) for each country, representing the percentage of people living in households where at least one person is deprived of education, health or standard of living. Based on data from the 2009/2010 Demographic and Health Survey, UNDP calculated that 68.1% of Timor-Leste's people live in multidimensional poverty, with an additional 18.2% "vulnerable to multiple deprivations." In other words, six out of every seven Timor-Leste citizens face major obstacles to improving their lives, which creates a huge challenge for Government, international agencies, civil society organizations and our people.

Some local media inaccurately reported that UNDP had said that 68.1% of Timor-Leste's people live below the poverty line. These press reports angered the Minister of Finance, who abruptly cancelled two meetings with UN agencies.

UNDP recognizes that income is not the best measure of human development, so they also calculate a non-income HDI based only on health and education, which was .569 for Timor-Leste in 2012. When ranked in comparison with other countries, Timor-Leste ranks 29 places better on income than our HDI ranking, meaning that our people have lower human development than other countries with the same cash income.

The Human Development Report also measures how much inequality there is in each country, and Timor-Leste's inequality-adjusted Human Development Index is .386, 33% lower than our HDI when inequality is not considered. Because many other impoverished countries are also very unequal, our ranking only drops three places when inequality is considered.

Our web page includes a table with data for Timor-Leste and a few other countries from the 2013 Human Development Report, as well as links to additional data from UNDP.

Timor-Leste people tell U.S. to close Guantanamo prison

During the last few weeks, people all over the world have been asking the United States Government to close the illegal prison it operates on a U.S. military base in Guantanamo, Cuba. Although many detainees have been released, the U.S. still imprisons 166 human beings -- all men, all Muslim -- in Guantanamo, many for more than eleven years. None of them has been convicted in a judicial process, and their imprisonment violates U.S. and international law, as well as the fundamental principle of "innocent until proven guilty."

For more than fifty days, more than 100 of the prisoners have been on hunger strike. Many human rights activists are fasting in solidarity with them. Although starving themselves may be the only way the prisoners still have to express themselves, people outside Guantanamo's cells also have other means.

English

Tetum

In Timor-Leste, about 30 people wrote a letter to President Barack Obama to appeal that the prison be closed immediately, its inmates released and compensated for the severe violations to their human rights. They also demanded that people who committed crimes related to their illegal arrest, imprisonment and torture at Guantanamo be brought to justice.

They also wrote to Timor-Leste President Taur Matan Ruak and other public officials in Tetum, at right. This letter asks the Head of State to ask the United States, in Timor-Leste's name, to free all Guantanamo prisoners, close the prison because it violates human rights principles, and compensate the victims and ask their countries to welcome them back. Based on Timor-Leste's history, and its ratification of international human rights conventions, the signers hope that President Taur Matan Ruak will represent Timor-Leste's people's request to show solidarity with the Guantanamo prisoners.

When signers of the letter to President Obama delivered it to the U.S. embassy, the embassy respected their freedom of expression and an embassy official graciously accepted the letter and will forward it to the White House. Organizers had spoken with Ambassador Judith Fergin in advance, and she asked Timor-Leste's police to allow the peaceful protest, notwithstanding Timor-Leste's law which bans protests within 100 meters of government and embassy facilities.

Atauro Island, across the sea behind the demonstrators, was used by Portuguese and Indonesian occupiers of Timor-Leste as a political detention center.  Indonesia sent more than 6,000 Timorese people there, where they were often held for many years without charges, just as in Guantanamo. Today, everyone in Atauro is free, and the island is a farming/fishing community and an ecotourism resort.

Has TL become a problem child?

The lead editorial in the March 2013 Petroleum Economist is about Timor-Leste, entitled "Going for Broke." Although an annual subscription to the magazine is very expensive, you can download the complete editorial here or read it below.

The article discusses the failure of Timor-Leste's oil revenues to improve the lives of our people, observing that Timor-Leste, a former "poster child for developing nations" for petroleum management, now "better resembles a problem child."

La'o Hamutuk wrote the same warning one year ago, blogging that Timor-Leste is going for broke. We explained that current spending trends (which were not significantly altered in the 2013 state budget) could empty the Petroleum Fund even before Bayu-Undan is exhausted around 2024. Petroleum Economist is less tactful, urging Prime Minister Xanana Gusmão to "be pragmatic and focus on ensuring Sunrise is developed and the revenues are used to underwrite the sustainable, long-term development of Timor-Leste’s non-oil economy. If this does not come to pass, it is hard to avoid the conclusion that Timor-Leste is a failed state-in-waiting."

People pay $2,160 per year to subscribe to this highly-respected, 80-year-old publication because they value the information it contains. We hope that such a credible, prestigious medium will help wake people up to the reality that petroleum wealth is often more of a curse than a blessing.

The complete text of Petroleum Economist's editorial follows.

TL’s wealth: for the past or for the future?

[Liga ba post ida ne'e iha lingua Tetum]

On 5 March 2013, the NGO Belun organized a workshop at Delta Nova, Dili, to launch Belun researcher Constantino Brandão’s report on the social impact of the administration process for veterans’ pensions, (Tetum or English). The event also included a panel discussion and a presentation from La’o Hamutuk researcher Juvinal Dias about the National Impact of Benefits for Former Combatants (PDF Tetum or English, PowerPoint Tetum or English).

La’o Hamutuk explained that 95% of state revenues, including those which pay for veterans’ pensions, come from unsustainable petroleum reserves. Timor-Leste’s limited oil and gas resources are not enough to finance state activities over the long term. When the state spends a lot on one sector, other sectors lose money.

The 2013 state budget appropriates $96 million for veterans’ pensions, which are escalating much faster than health or education expenditure.  Between 2008 and 2012, the Government spent about $199 million for pensions and scholarships for veterans, $24 million for emergency projects that veterans received, and $14 million for ceremonies, cemeteries and the Resistance Museum. In addition, veterans received more than 100 infrastructure projects worth around $78 million between 2010 and 2012.

According to an internal Finance Ministry document that La’o Hamutuk received, the Government expects to continue to pay veterans and their descendants until 2122. This document describes a reference case, which will spend $2.8 billion of Timor-Leste’s resources on veterans’ pensions. If the number of veterans increases and the minimum wage goes up, the Government could expend more than $7 billion for veterans. The Finance Ministry estimates that Timor-Leste’s total petroleum wealth is around $26 billion.

Today Timor-Leste confronts high inflation, around 11% during 2012. We have almost no domestic economy which can absorb state spending which circulates in the country.

In addition to inflation, Timor-Leste’s natural resources are very limited, and the Bayu-Undan and Kitan gas and oil fields will be empty in the next decade. In that decade our population will be larger, with the many children born after 1999 entering the labor force, and Timor-Leste will need to pay for state activities including physical and human development, public transfers, and repayment of debts which we began to incur last year.

Even more worrisome, during 2010-2012 state expenditures increased 31% per year, and our domestic revenues and return on Petroleum Fund investments remain small. If we continue in this direction, the Petroleum Fund will be empty by 2020. Without oil money, what will Timor-Leste use to pay veterans’ benefits? It would be better to invest in educating our children than to spend on former combatants.

La’o Hamutuk suggests that the policy for transferring public funds to veterans should be based on our nation’s economic reality, so that it will benefit our domestic economy rather than stimulating inflation and increasing the burden on poor people who are not among these beneficiaries.

TL nia riku soin: ba pasadu ka futuru?

[Link to this page in English]

Iha 5 Marsu 2013, NGO Belun organiza workshop ida iha Salaun Delta Nova, Dili, hodi lansa sira nia relatóriu peskiza kona-ba impaktu sosiál husi prosesu administrasaun pensaun ba veteranu sira, husi peskizadór Constantino Brandão husi Belun (English ka Tetun). Iha okaziaun ida ne’e, iha painél diskusaun no mós sesaun aprezentasaun hosi Juvinal Dias, peskizadór La’o Hamutuk kona-ba Impaktu Nasionál husi Benefísiu ba Antigu Kombatente sira (PDF Tetum ka English, Powerpoint Tetum ka English).
 
La’o Hamutuk aprezenta katak 95% hosi despeza estadu nian, inklui pensaun veteranu nian, mai hosi rekursu petrolíferu ida ne’ebé la sustentável. Timor-Leste nia rekursu rasik la barak atu bele finansia atividade estadu nian ba tempu naruk, nune’e bainhira estadu prioritiza setór ida, nune’e setór sira seluk lakon rekursu.

Iha tinan 2013, Governu aloka tokon $96 ba pensaun veteranu sira nian, gastu ida ne’e nia kreximentu lalais liu kompara ho despeza estadu nian ba setór edukasaun no saúde. Entre 2008 to’o 2012, maizumenus Governu aloka ona tokon $199 ba pensaun no bolsu estudu ba veteranu sira, tokon $24 ba projetu emerjénsia veteranu sira hetan, no tokon $14 ba seremonia, cemeterio no muzeu rezisténsia. Aleinde ida ne’e, entre 2010 to 2012, liu projetu infrastrutura atus ida ho nia valor maizumenus tokon $78 mak benefisia ona veteranu sira. 

Iha dokumentu internal hosi Ministériu Finansas nian ne’ebé La’o Hamutuk hetan, hatudu katak Governu halo hela projesaun atu selu veteranu sira no sira nia oan to’o tinan 2122. Dokumentu ne’e ilustra ho kazu referénsia ida katak Governu sei gastu biliaun $2.8 hosi total riku-soin Timor-Leste hodi selu pensaun ba veteranu sira. Nune’e bainhira númeru veteranu sira ne’e aumenta, no iha mudansa ba nivel saláriu mínimu nian, Governu sei gasta maizumenus biliaun $7 ka liu ba veteranu sira. Ministériu Finansas estimatiza katak Timor-Leste nia riku soin petróleu tomak maizumenus biliaun $26.

Situasaun ne’ebé Timor-Leste enfrenta mak, nivel inflasaun iha Timor-Leste sa’e maka’as, maizumenus 11% durante tinan 2012. Timor-Leste besik laiha kriasaun ekonomia rai-laran ida atu bele absorve gastu husi estadu ne’ebé sirkula iha rai-laran.

Aleinde inflasaun, Timor-Leste mós nia rekursu naturais limitadu tebe-tebes, iha dékada oin mai, ita nia kampu mina-rai Bayu-Undan no Kitan laiha ona. Iha dékada ida ne’e populasaun Timor-Leste mós aumenta, labarik sira ne’ebé foin moris hafoin 1999 sei tama ba kampu laboral, no Timor-Leste presiza rekursu atu finansia atividade estadu inklui selu ba dezenvolvimentu fíziku no umanu, transferénsia públiku inklui atu selu nia tusan ne’ebé ita hahú halo dezde 2012 liu ba.

Iha kazu ne’ebé ekstrimu liu mak, dezde 2010-2012 nivel despeza orsamentu estadu nian sa’e 31%/tinan, no ita nia reseita doméstiku no retornu investimentu Fundu Petrolíferu nafatin ki’ik. Situasaun ida ne’e mak karik la’o hela de’it, ita nia Fundu Petrolíferu sei maran iha 2020. Karik mina-rai maran tiha, saida mak Timor-Leste bele uza atu selu veteranu sira iha futuru? Di’ak liu atu investe atu eduka ita nia oan duke gasta ba antigu kombatante sira.

La’o Hamutuk sujere atu polítika transferénsia ba veteranu sira tenke bazeia ba situasaun ekonómiku rai laran, katak sei fó benefísiu ba ekonomia rai laran hodi la hamosu inflasaun ida ne’ebé boot hodi fó naha todan ba sira ne’ebé kiak no la’ós parte hosi benefisiariu sira.

Ad hoc committee proposes budget revisions

The closed ad-hoc Parliamentary Committee on the 2013 State Budget presented its proposals to Parliament on 14 February, as summarized in the table at left. Their total budget is $150 million smaller than the Government's December proposal, as shown in these revisions in the budget law (also Portuguese).  The most significant changes are:

1. Reduce the Contingency Fund by $8 million, although this potential saving is reallocated to other expenditure lines.

2. Reduce generator fuel expenditures by $17 million, reallocating $15 million of this to road maintenance.

3. Reduce appropriations to the Infrastructure Fund by $150 million (see table at right). The largest cuts are:

• Electricity (cutting $50 million from $174 million originally proposed by Government)
• MDG housing and sanitation (cutting $42 million from $88 million proposed)
• Roads (cutting $29 million from $116 million proposed)
• Public buildings (cutting $8 million from $29 million proposed).

4. Apply $261 million of the cash balance in the treasury (which stood at $819 million at the end of 2012, largely because of excessive transfers from the Petroleum Fund, as shown in the graph at left) instead of raising new revenue or additional transfers from the Petroleum Fund.

5. Reduce planned withdrawals from the Petroleum Fund during 2013 from $1,197.8 million to $787 million, the amount estimated as the sustainable income (ESI).

The budget revision also includes $43 million in additions and reductions to spending from the Consolidated Fund. Items greater than $0.5 million not listed above are as follows: 

Additions

• $3.0m for PDID (small local infrastructure projects)
• $2.0m for PNTL Medals and district petty cash
• $2.0m for CNE subsidies for political parties
• $1.5m for the Los Palos - Lore Road (via the Infrastructure Fund)
• $1.3m for Atsabe and Maliana churches
• $1.0m for Special Economic Zones (ZEE)
• $1.0m for Parliamentary cars
• $1.0m for cooperatives
• $1.0m for Dili District Prosecutor
• $0.9m for rehabilitating Suai Prison
• $0.8m for the new Timor-Leste Cooperation Agency (foreign aid)
• $0.7m to build Dili District Court
• $0.6m for Metinaro ossuary
• $0.5m for CPLP Economic Forum
• $0.5m to pay Singapore hospital bills

Reductions

• $21m in Infrastructure Fund cuts in other sectors (see table above)
• $9.4m of $18.8m reappropriated for unfinished PDD-1 projects
• $3.3m of $18m allocated for the Civil Society Fund under the P.M.
• $2.0m of $10m allocated for "Impact of Special Regimes" in the contingency fund
• $0.5m from Parliamentary travel

The deferral of $150 million in Infrastructure Fund projects will have a significant impact on the State Budget for 2014 and beyond, but Parliamentarians have not received information on how much, or on how much will have to be transferred from the Petroleum Fund from 2014 on.  The Tasi Mane project, which was untouched to show unity to Australia and the oil companies, will also have a huge impact on future budgets.

Update 19 February: Thanks to the efficiency of closed-door processes, the Parliamentary plenary approved the budget on 18 February, two days early, by unanimous vote.  The only amendments were those agreed by the ad hoc committee.

Konvite ba media briefing kona ba Tratadu CMATS

Ita boot bele hetan aprezentasaun husi briefing ida ne'e hanesan PowerPoint ka PDF. 
You can download an English translation of the presentation from this briefing as PowerPoint or PDF.

Loron 23 Fevreiru 2013 sei sai data inísiu ba Timor-Leste ka Australia atu halo notifikasaun hodi termina Tratadu CMATS (Certain Maritime Arrangements in the Timor Sea/Aranjamentu Maritima balu iha Tasi Timor) hafoin tratadu ne’e vigora dezde 2007.  Ita boot bele hetan informasaun baziku iha ne’e iha Tetum no English, ka iha ne'e ho detallu liu.

Durante ne’e iha kobertura barak hosi media kona-ba asuntu CMATS ne’e, no La’o Hamutuk hakarak atu apoiu jornalista sira hodi hatene liu tan informasaun kona-ba vantajen no dezvantajen karik Timor-Leste termina Tratadu CMATS. Nune’e ami hakarak konvida ita-boot sira husi Media ne’ebé interese atu komprende asuntu ne’e atu bele mai tuir briefing no diskusaun ne’ebé sei realiza iha:
Loron    Kinta-Feira,  21 Fevreiru 2013
Fatin     La’o Hamutuk, Rua dos Martires da Patria, Bebora, Dili, Timor-Leste
Horas   Tuku 14.00 to 16.45

Bele konfirma ita-boot sira nia partisipasaun ba +670 7734-8703 ka juvinal@laohamutuk.org.

La'o Hamutuk sei organiza enkontru ida tan ba públiku kona ba tópiku CMATS no fronteira maritima iha semana ida ka rua. Bainhira ami konfirma data no fatin, ami sei fahe informasaun klaru.