Understanding Timor-Leste's context

To follow the first Fragile States Principle, “Take Context as the Starting Point,” one must understand the context. Timor-Leste’s General Directorate of Statistics (GDS/DGE, formerly the National Statistics Directorate), under the Ministry of Finance, recently published several important reports which help make this possible. We hope that people inside and outside the Government will use them well, and that they will inform the discussions at next week’s Timor-Leste and Development Partners Meeting, next month’s Timor-Leste Studies Association conference, and future policy planning and implementation.

Because the GDS website has some technical problems, La’o Hamutuk posted these reports on our website (click on each heading to download the report). At present they are mainly in English; we will add Tetum versions as they become available.

2011 Household Income and Expenditure Survey

Between January 2011 to January 2012, GDS interviewed 4,800 households across Timor-Leste (about 2.6% of the total) about their cash and in-kind income and expenditures, as well as other topics. The results, the first for this country, are an invaluable window into people’s lives and Timor-Leste’s economy. The Government delayed publication of the HIES report for a year, removing the calculation of the Poverty Line (to avoid comparison with 2007, when 49.9% of Timor-Leste’s people lived on less than 88 cents/day), but a great deal of useful data remains. Here are a few tidbits:

• The mean (average) monthly income per person is $93 in urban households and $50 in rural ones.
• Less than one-fourth of this is from wages; in rural areas more than half is from agriculture.
• The median per capita monthly income (including in-kind income and imputed rent) is $40 ($24 in Oecusse), meaning that half of Timor-Leste’s people get by on less than $1.33 per day. [With 34% overall inflation from 2007 to 2011, the poverty line is significantly higher than 2007’s 88¢/day.]
• The richest 10% receives nearly 14 times as much income as the poorest 10%.

• Urban people spend more than twice as much as rural people, even when the value of food obtained by labor or barter is included. More than half of rural people spend less than a dollar a day.
• Rural people spend 78% of their household budget on food, of which less than 40% is bartered or produced by themselves.
• 57% of all wage income is paid by the Government.
• Urban households consume four times as much fish and dairy as rural ones, and twice as much meat and vegetables, but rural people eat more rice, tubers and roots.
• Urban households spend seven times as much on beer as rural ones, although rural people spend more on locally-produced alcohol.
• The HIES report also discusses education, age, health, possessions, hunger, crime, smoking, transportation, social benefits, ceremonies and many other issues.

2000-2011 National Accounts

This report, the second of its kind, estimates the size of each component of Timor-Leste’s economy using three methods: production, expenditure and income. In addition to calculating the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and watching it grow over time, the NA report shows money coming into and out of the country, as well as the contribution and trends of various sectors. Among its interesting revelations:

• 80.5% of our GDP in 2011 came from oil and gas extraction. The non-oil GDP was $1.1 billion in current prices, out of a total of $5.8 billion.
• Of the non-oil GDP, 21% was from construction, 20% from public administration, 19% from trade, 17% from agriculture, 8% from real estate and 15% from all other sectors.
• Total non-oil GDP increased 12% from 2010 to 2011. In that time, agriculture shrank by 20% while (mostly state-financed) construction grew by 40% and public administration grew by 25%.
• During 2011, Timor-Leste exported $34 million in goods (excluding oil) and $77m in services, for a total export income of $111 million.
• During 2011, we imported $325 million in goods and $1,033m in services (excluding the oil sector), for a balance of payments deficit of $1.25 billion, 16% higher than in 2010.

2011 Business Activities Survey

GDS interviewed a sample of 1,073 of the 5,273 business registered in Timor-Leste, excluding the petroleum sector but including all large companies operating here, and compared the responses with their 2010 study. Among the interesting results:

• 58,200 people were employed by the private sector at the end of 2011, 75% whom were male, out of a total working age population of more than 600,000.
• Between 2010 and 2011, the number of women employed increased by only 7% while the number of men increased 25%. (This is partly from the large increase in the construction sector, but the gender bias is in most sectors.)

• Although business profits increased by 39% over 2010 (to $355 million), capital expenditure (investing to make the business grow) dropped by 13%. Dili-based businesses re-invested only 9% of their profits in 2011 (down from 20% in 2010), while companies in the districts re-invested 55% (up from 26% in 2010). Although this is partly because foreign companies are primarily registered in Dili, investment was less than 20% of profit in every sector of the economy.

Series 2 Consumer Price Index

Although GDS has sampled prices and published the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for many years, in late 2012 they used the HIES to redesign their methodology, changing the way data is collected, the weights given to different types of products, and publishing separate CPIs for Dili and the rest of Timor-Leste. They recently released reports for the first four months of 2013, the first using the new methodology. These reports and GDS’s explanatory papers are on La’o Hamutuk’s website; future reports will be accessible from the GDS website.

The new reports from the General Directorate for Statistics contain a wealth of data (as does their end-of-2012 Quarterly Statistical Indicators brochure), but there are other sources of useful information. La’o Hamutuk also recently published Mari Alkatiri’s presentation on the proposed Oecusse Special Economic Zone, the Finance Ministry’s Yellow Road Workshop documents describing Timor-Leste’s fiscal situation, and some of the tender and EIA documents for the Suai Airport, Suai Supply Base, and the first phase of the Suai-Beaçu highway. We welcome additional information from all sources.

Presidential concerns about the State Budget

At the end of February, President of the Republic Taur Matan Ruak promulgated the RDTL General State Budget for 2013. At the same time, the President wrote a letter and memorandum to Members of Parliament, expressing his concerns, including about budget execution rates, expensive speculative projects, inflation, low allocation for human development, the Tasi Mane project and unemployment. Many of his suggestions address the same issues as La'o Hamutuk's submission to Parliament.

Although the President's office did not make his letter public, La'o Hamutuk obtained it from Parliament and is making it available in Portuguese and our unofficial English translation, which follows (links and graphics added by La'o Hamutuk).

President of the Republic
GENERAL STATE BUDGET (GSB) FOR 2013
General Notes and Recommendations

1. The President notes that the rate of execution of the State Budget for 2012 will have been about 70%, and this corresponds to spending of approximately USD $1,200 million. In the GSB for 2013, the Ad-hoc Committee submitted an alternative proposal (to the initial proposal of $1,797.5 million) of $1,647 million. This proposal was approved with 64 votes in favor and 1 abstention.

2. Of the total value of the Infrastructure Fund planned for 2012, only 49% of the funds were spent. If you exclude the funds for the electrification project of the country, the rate of execution of the Infrastructure Fund in 2012 was significantly lower: 29%.

3. The total expenditures of the 2013 State Budget are $1,647.519 million, which was reduced by $155 million (-8.3%) from the Government’s initial proposal. This reduction is mainly achieved through reduced expenditure on Development Capital / Infrastructure (-$135 million) and a decrease of $20 million in spending on goods and services. The reduction in goods and services is due to the fact that this budget will be approved 2 months later than what the law determines (1 January 2013).

4. “The $1,501.219 million fiscal deficit of the state budget”, “is financed with $787 million from the Petroleum Fund, $43.6 million through the use of public credit” (soft loans from international donors), “$409.8 million in the balance carried forward from Special Funds” (mainly the Infrastructure Fund), and “$260.8 million from the balance in the Treasury Account.”

5. The President welcomes the reduction in the amount of the state budget compared with last year. However, taking into account the history of low rates of execution,  the President draws attention to the urgent need to complete the execution of this budget. There appears to have been a high tone of optimism in the definition of expenses to carry out, especially for projects that end up not being executed.

6. The President notes that the relative abundance of financial resources has given rise to speculative projects with inflated prices with significantly prejudice to the public interest.

7. The President welcomes the statements made by Members of Parliament as well as the affirmation of the Prime Minister, with respect to the functions of supervision and monitoring of project execution through quarterly meetings to take place between the Parliamentary Standing Committees and the respective members of the Government. The President believes that these actions will better protect the national interest.

8. Average annual rates of inflation reached 13.5% in 2011 and 11.8% in 2012. The President hopes that this GSB can contribute to reducing  inflation that the country has suffered during the last two years. These values greatly reduce the purchasing power of civil servants, mainly those who earn lower wages, and especially citizens with low incomes.

9. The President notes that, on the one hand, in the structure of expenditure in this State Budget, 46% is allocated to the construction of infrastructure, prioritizing spending on electrification of the country, road reconstruction and the Tasi Mane project. On the other hand, there is much less spending in key areas of human development -- education receives only 5.6%, health receives 3.7% -- and agriculture, which involves about 80% of the population, gets only 1.5% of the total budget.

10. The President welcomes the special allocation for Oecusse. However, he regrets the lack of a budget for the “planning” of Dili, the capital of the Republic which welcomes the diplomatic community and is the main gateway to the Country.

11. Regarding the Tasi Mane project on the South Coast, the President understands the reasons that appear to justify not having changed the intended amount. However, he would like to see a public explanation of the reasons for allocating these funds, in particular when compared with other expenses with obvious social utility. For example, two kilometers of highway are likely to cost $20 million and the budget allocated to agriculture is about $25 million.

12. The President was informed that losses caused by illegal fishing amount to more than $200 million per year. The President regrets not finding an adequate response to this problem in this budget, which continues to affect the potential for national fishing.

13. With regard to domestic revenues, the President hopes that the efforts of the Executive for better tax administration and collection of taxes, duties and other revenues will be effective. The President intends to urge firm measures to combat tax evasion and capital flight, which will allow for greater prudence in using money from the Petroleum Fund.

14. Responding to unemployment is an unavoidable necessity. The President hopes that this GSB can generate more permanent jobs, contributing to a significant reduction in poverty that affects more than 50% of households in the interior of our Country. The President also hopes that this budget will contribute to a tangible decrease in the asymmetry between the capital Dili and other districts.

LH asks Australia to respect Timor-Leste's sovereignty

The Australian Parliament recently published 72 submissions to its Inquiry on Australia's relationship with Timor-Leste to the website of the Subcommittee on Foreign Affairs.  La'o Hamutuk was the only Timor-Leste organization to write to the Committee, and we raised the following points.

• Our relationship should be based on mutual respect for sovereign and human rights.
• Timor-Leste’s proximity to Australia is an opportunity, not a risk.
• We appreciate Australian support since 1999, but history still haunts our peoples, as does Australia’s continued theft of Timor-Leste’s oil and gas resources.
• Australia’s generous assistance can meet our people’s needs more effectively by prioritizing human security and reducing unnecessary overhead.
• Timor-Leste and Australia should settle our maritime boundary based on current international law and good-faith arbitration or negotiation, including use of legal processes.
• Australian military forces should be more forthcoming and accountable when their activities here injured or killed Timor-Leste citizens.
• Ties between our peoples provide good examples for better links between our states.

The text of our submission follows, or download a PDF here. We also wrote a background sheet and updated information about our unresolved maritime boundary.

Celebrate La'o Hamutuk's 13th anniversary!

Please join us to celebrate thirteen years of Walking Together with La'o Hamutuk. Although both the nation and the organization have come a long way since 2000, the journey continues.  We invite our friends and colleagues to celebrate our anniversary on

Friday, 24 May 2013

3:00-6:00 pm

La'o Hamutuk's office, Bebora, Dili

Ho laran ksolok ami konvida belun sira hodi mai hamutuk ho ami atu selebra aniversario La'o Hamutuk ba dala 13 iha:

Sesta, 24 Maiu 2013

Oras 15.00-18.00 OTL

Edifisiu La'o Hamutuk, Bebora Dili

Suai Supply Base: benefit or boondoggle?

The centerpiece of Timor-Leste’s Strategic Development Plan is the Tasi Mane Project (TMP), a corridor of petroleum infrastructure along the southwest coast of this country which includes a supply base in Suai (Covalima district), refinery in Betano (Manufahi district), LNG plant in Beaçu (Viqueque district) and a highway to connect them.

This article summarizes La’o Hamutuk’s extensive new web page on the Suai Supply Base (SSB), the first component of TMP. That page has more information, documents, analyses, presentations, maps and graphics, and will be updated regularly.
English: http://www.laohamutuk.org/Oil/TasiMane/13SSBen.htm
Tetum: http://www.laohamutuk.org/Oil/TasiMane/13SSBte.htm

The main project in Suai will be a port (breakwater and jetties), storage yard, warehouses, offices, fuel tank farm, helipad and future industrial park in Kamanasa Suco, Covalima District. Its 1,113 hectares are almost entirely agriculture land, a sacred area for local inhabitants.

In addition to the Supply Base itself, the Covalima components of the Tasi Mane project will include an expansion of Suai airport, a 208-hectare “Nova Suai” new town to house workers from the project, and a divided highway that will eventually go 150 km to Beaçu.

The project originally included a seaport in Suai Loro, which was cancelled because it would have been redundant with the port in the Kamanasa Supply Base, which can also serve as a cargo terminal.

The Supply Base will be built, owned and operated by Timor-Leste’s state-owned oil company TimorGAP and their subcontractors, with estimated operating costs of $8 million per year.

Supply Base construction will be phased over many years, but TimorGAP plans to fence in the entire area in Kamanasa and exclude local use, perhaps as soon as the end 2013.

The rest of this blog posting discusses key issues about the Suai Supply Base, including

• History and current status
• Project cost -- which has multiplied by 14 in less than three years
• Environmental Impact Assessment, including documents and information gaps
• Rough estimate showing that the SSB may not recover its investment
• Suai community views and the recent land transfer

Ho informasaun ita forte - desentraliza ba

Link to this blog in English.

La’o Hamutuk foin publika edisaun foun ba ami nia Referénsia DVD-ROM (mós Ingles) ho kapasidade 4GB hosi informasaun ne’ebé mai hosi ami nia website, blogue, download hosi website prinsipál Governu nian no relatóriu barak kona-ba Timor-Leste, rejiaun no mós mundiál.

Maiór parte material hirak ne’e bele hetan iha ami nia website. Maibe, asesu internet iha Timor-Leste ki’ik liu no karun liu iha mundu, tanba ne’e ami halo material sira ne’e ho formatu ida ne’ebé fasil ba ema atu hetan no uza no la presiza ba asesu iha internet.

DVD ne’e ami atualiza hodi uza ba treinamentu ne’ebé ami foin halo daudauk ne’e ba jornalista sira kona-ba Fonte Informasaun (mós iha Ingles), treinamentu ne’ebé FOTI-Timor-Leste organiza. Treinamentu ida ne’e foka ba informasaun barak no luan liu kona-ba Timor-Leste ne’ebé bele hetan hosi Governu no fonte seluk. 

Dezde tinan kotuk ne’e, La’o Hamutuk fó ona treinamentu no aprezentasaun sanulu resin ba grupu no instituisaun lubuk kona-ba OJE no ekonomia Timor-Leste, fronteira maritima ho Australia, projetu Tasi Mane, Orsamentu Responsivu ba Jéneru, Portal Transparénsia, Transparénsia, pensaun Veteranu, polítika fini no tópiku sira seluk. Ami mós foin atualiza ami nia aprezentasaun kona-ba Rights and Sustainability in Timor-Leste’s Development (Ingles). Versaun Tetun sei mai.

Ho hanoin atu halo material ne’e bele asesu hosi ema barak, ami publika aprezentasaun sira ne’e iha ami nia pájina foun iha ami nia website – PowerPoint no PDF, Ingles no Tetun. Bele download no uza ba. Karik ita boot hakarak peskizadór La’o Hamutuk nian ida bele fó treinamentu ruma, ka aprezenta ba grupu ka eventu ruma, bele kontaktu ami iha info@laohamutuk.org ka +670-3321040.

Information is power - decentralize it

Liga ba pajina ida ne'e iha Tetum

La'o Hamutuk has just published a new edition of our Reference DVD-ROM (also Tetum) with 4 gigabytes of information from our website and blog, downloads of key government websites, and many reports about Timor-Leste, the region and the world.

Most of this material is available on the web, including on La'o Hamutuk's site. However, internet access in Timor-Leste is among the scarcest and most expensive in the world, so we're making it available in this format for people without easy access to internet.

The DVD was updated for a training we gave to journalists on Sources of Information (also Tetum), organized by FOTI-Timor-Leste.  This training describes a wide variety of information available on Timor-Leste from Government and other sources.

During the past year, La'o Hamutuk has given more than a dozen trainings and presentations to a wide range of groups and institutions on Timor-Leste's budget and economy, maritime boundaries with Australia, the Tasi Mane project, Gender-responsive Budgeting, the Procurement Portal, Transparency, Veterans' pensions, seed policy and other topics.  We just updated our flagship presentation Rights and Sustainability in Timor-Leste's Development. (A Tetum version is forthcoming.)

In order to make this material available to more people, we link to the presentations from a new page on our website -- PowerPoint and PDF files, English and Tetum. Please download and use them. If you would like a La'o Hamutuk researcher to present to a training, group or event, contact us at info@laohamutuk.org or +670-3321040.