To’o bainhira Fundu Petrolíferu sei lori Timor-Leste?

Ami foin publika kapitulu akademiku ida ne'e iha Tetum.  Bele hetan iha artigu tomak iha ne'e, ka English version here.

Abstratu

Daudauk ne’e petróleu no gas fornese liu 95% reseita estadu no kuatru-kintu (4/5) hosi Timor-Leste nia GDP. Rendimentu hosi esportasaun riku-soin naun renovavel petróleu kanaliza liu ba Fundu Petróleu ne’ebé iha ona billaun $15. Iha espetasaun lubuk katak saldu no lukru investimentu Fundu Petróleu nian sei selu atividade estadu nian hafoin kampu petróleu no gas maran ona, ne’ebé bele akontese iha 2020 karik projetu Greater Sunrise kontinua la ba oin. Infelizmente, Fundu Petróleu bele maran iha tinan lima tan hafoin tempu ne’ebá.

Papél ida ne’e deskreve modelu ida atu halo projesaun to’o bainhira loos Fundu Petrolíferu bele finansia atividade estadu nian. Modelu ne’e inkorpora dadus istóriku no projesaun nian, inklui despeza rekurrente no kapitál, reseita doméstika, empréstimu no nia tusan, rendimentu petróleu, no retornu investimentu hosi Fundu Petróleu. Modelu ne’e fó lisensa atu muda parametru no mós atu antisipa presu mina iha merkadu, taxa de jurus no opsaun ba dezenvolve Sunrise.

Probabilidade katak Fundu Petróleu bele hotu iha dékada ida nia laran fó sinál urjente ba ita atu dezenvolve ekonomia naun-petróleu Timor-Leste, aumenta reseita doméstiku no uza fundu públiku nian ho matenek.

Informasaun klean liu iha English, ho ligasaun ba dokumentu no planilla

Konvite ba diskusaun Orsamentu Estadu 2015 no Sustentabilidade Fiskál

Foin daudauk ne’e, Governu hala’o ona sira nia workshop “Yellow Road” internal atu diskute planu orsamentál ba tinan fiskál 2015. La’o Hamutuk hanoin katak importante tebes mós ba públiku tomak atu bele iha informasaun ne’ebé nato’on kona-ba sá polítika fiskál ba 2015 ne’ebé  deside ona atu halo ba Timor-Leste nia futuru. Tanba ne’e, ami konvida ita-boot sira atu bele partisipa iha Enkontru Públiku ho tema Orsamentu Estadu 2015 no Sustentabilidade Fiskál ne’ebé realiza iha:

Loron    : Kuarta Feira, 11 Juñu 2014
Oras       : 08.45-12.00
Fatin      : Aula Asosiasaun HAK, Farol, Dili

08:45    Rejistrasaun   

09:00    Introdusaun 
09:15    Aprezentasaun Panorama Ekonomiku no Politika Fiskal Timor-Leste (mos PDF)             husi Helder Lopes, Koordenador Politika Ekonomia, Ministériu Finansa
09:50    Aprezentasaun Sustentabilidade Fiskál ba Timor-Leste (mos PDF)

             husi Charles Scheiner, Peskizadór, La’o Hamutuk
10:25    Diskusaun  
12:00    Enserramentu  
Ita bele hetan aprezentasaun no PDF rua husi enkontru ida ne'e husi ligasaun iha leten ka iha ne'e.

Can the Petroleum Fund Exorcise the Resource Curse from Timor-Leste?

This blog was updated on 27 February 2015

La'o Hamutuk recently circulated a referenced academic paper which describes the resource curse in Timor-Leste and, sadly, concludes that the Petroleum Fund is inadequate to keep the nation from falling into dire poverty in less than 20 years. Read the September 2014 paper on-line or download the February 2015 update of the paper as a PDF. 

Australian National University published a two-page "In Brief" summary of this paper in July 2014, and Timor-Leste's Ministry of Finance issued an eight-page response a few weeks later. We hope they will give similar attention to the completed, updated paper.

Contents

•   Oil swamps the economy.
•   Oil fuels the state machinery.
•   The Sovereign Wealth Fund saves petroleum revenues.
•   Spending grows quickly, but not always wisely.
•   The resource curse has many faces.
•   This petro-state doesn’t have much petrol.
•   There isn't much time.
•   Notes
•   References and bibliography

Abstract

Oil and gas exports provide about 95% of state revenues and three-fourths of GDP, making Timor-Leste one of the most petroleum-dependent countries in the world. Although this fuelled double-digit GDP growth from 2007 through 2011, poverty and inequality are increasing. Current development plans are unlikely to rescue Timor-Leste’s people from the resource curse which distorts planning, governance, decision-making and politics, leading to neglect of non-petroleum investments, especially agriculture and human resources.

Income from exporting non-renewable petroleum wealth is channeled through a Petroleum Fund which contains US$17 billion. Although Timor-Leste’s currently active oil and gas fields may be dry by 2020, many believe that earnings from Petroleum Fund investments will continue to pay for state activities. Unfortunately, La’o Hamutuk’s model shows that the Petroleum Fund may be empty within five years after that.

The prospect that the Petroleum Fund could be gone in a decade underscores the urgency to develop Timor-Leste’s non-oil economy, increase domestic revenue and use public funds wisely. The Petroleum Fund may have created an illusion of economic security that allowed avoiding difficult decisions and challenging tasks.

LH ba Prezidente TMR: Favor veto Lei Komunikasaun Sosiál

[Link to this blog in English]

Iha loron 6 Maiu 2014, Parlamentu Nasionál aprova ona Lei Komunikasaun Sosiál ne’ebé sei limita diretu Konstitusional ba liberdade espresaun no imprensa. Liu semana tolu ona. Parlamentu seidauk haruka ba Prezidente Taur Matan Ruak, ne’ebé sei iha loron 30 atu promulga ka veto lei ne’e bainhira nia simu ona.

Iha 29 Maiu, Lao Hamutuk no organizasaun sira seluk husu ba Prezidente atu veto lei, “tanba Lei ne’e sei estraga demokrasia no direitus umanu, esklui ema barak nia direitu ba liberdade espresaun, fó de’it podér ba grupu ida de’it atu fó lisensa ba ema balu no limita ema seluk atu fahe informasaun. Ami konsidera ida ne’e viola Konstituisaun no Konvensaun Internasionál ba Direitu Sivíl no Polítika."

Karta ne’e iha Tetum no Ingles, no mós informasaun no analiza sira bele hare online iha internet. Tuir mai rezumu hosi karta.

LH to President TMR: Please Veto Media Law

[liga ba artigu ida ne'e iha Tetum]

On 6 May, Timor-Leste's Parliament passed a law which would severely restrict Constitutional rights of freedom of speech and of the press. More than three weeks later, they have not yet sent the law to President Taur Matan Ruak, who will have 30 days to sign or veto the law when he receives it.

On 29 May, La'o Hamutuk and other organizations urged the President to veto the law, "because it will harm democracy and human rights, restrict many people's rights to freedom of expression, and give power to a single group to issue a few licenses while limiting other people's rights to share information. We believe this violates Timor-Leste’s Constitution and the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights."

Update: On 25 June, 50 days after they passed it, Parliament sent the proposed media law to President Taur Matan Ruak, who has to decide whether to sign or veto it. Download the latest version here.  On 14 July, TMR asked the Court of Appeals to give him an advisory opinion on whether it is Constitutional. On 11 August, the Court advised the President that several articles of the proposed law did indeed violate Timor-Leste's Constitution, and he transmitted their opinion to Parliament on 19 August.  More detailed and updated information is on La'o Hamutuk's website.

The civil society letter is online in Tetum or English translation, as well as information and analysis. The following is abridged from the letter:

Mai Selebra Hamutuk / Come Celebrate Together

Ami kontente tebes se kolega sira bele mai partisipa La’o Hamutuk nia aniversariu no diskusaun ho tema “Fronteira Maritima” hamutuk ho ami iha La’o Hamutuk nia edifisiu.

We are very happy to invite our friends to come together to celebrate La'o Hamutuk's anniversary in a discussion about Maritime Boundaries at La'o Hamutuk's office ... and a party.

Loron Kinta, 22 Maiu 2014

Thursday, 22 May 2014

 

Ajenda
14.00-16.30: Aprezentasaun no diskusaun nakloke ho tema “Fronteira Maritima”
16.30-16-45: “Tinan sanulu resin hat ezisténsia La’o Hamutuk nian” liafuan husi staff no belun La’o Hamutuk nian
16.45-19.30:Han hamutuk no palku nakloke

Schedule 
14:00-16:30: Presentation and open discussion about "Maritime Boundaries"
16:30-16:45: Brief comments from staff and friends on "Fourteen years of La'o Hamutuk"
16:45-19:30: Eat, drink and make music together, and enjoy!


Ami ne’ebe Konvida,Adilsonio, Alexandra, Armindu, Celestino, Charlie,  Ines, Francisco, Juvinal, Luciana, Mariano, Odete, Rosmenio

Private Public Consultations

Although many people are discussing Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) as a new model for developing infrastructure in Timor-Leste, Private Public Consultations (PPCs) have been with us for a long time. One example is the "Public Consultation" announced by the National Petroleum Authority (ANP) and Ministry of Petroleum and Mineral Resources on this banner, which has been displayed across from the Foreign Ministry for about a week.

The meetings will discuss draft Technical Regulations for oil and gas operations off Timor-Leste's south coast, in the Exclusive Area not shared with Australia. The detailed rules can protect (or endanger) workers, revenues and the environment. These regulations, hundreds of pages long,   are critically important in balancing the cost-cutting, profit-seeking incentives of the companies against the human, financial and ecological responsibility of Timor-Leste's government to safeguard against such dangers.  When a similar consultation was held in 2008 on Technical Regulations for the Joint Development Area, La'o Hamutuk identified many areas which needed improvement, and we would like to be able to help this time as well. Since then, offshore oil disasters like Deepwater Horizon and Montara have been sharp reminders of the need for effective regulation.

After we saw ANP's banner, we asked them for the draft regulations, so that we could prepare for the consultation. A day later, they declined to share the documents, but did send us an invitation (left) and agenda (right). We are posting them to encourage others to join the Dili workshop, which will be at Delta Nova on Wednesday, 14 May from 08:30 - 16:00.  Four hours of presentations will be followed by 45 minutes of questions and answers.

La'o Hamutuk does not have experts on staff who can thoroughly analyze complex technical documents; we rely on experienced international volunteers.  The ANP also required outside help, and they contracted Gaffney, Cline & Associates who presented a draft in 2011, which ANP has been studying for nearly two years.

After such a long process, ANP knows that it takes time to understand these documents and give useful input. The late notice for the consultation, with no substantive information, raises doubts about its purpose. So we asked:

"Wouldn't the consultation be more effective if people had a chance to read the drafts before the workshop, and perhaps to discuss them with others to get wider and wiser input?  Or is this really a socialization, where ANP will explain what they have already decided to do, rather than expecting to modify the drafts based on people's suggestions during the consultation process?"

In response, ANP promised that "the ANP will continue receive public opinion/feedback or submissions after the workshop."  We hope that they will modify the regulations to incorporate the suggestions they receive, and that this PPC is more than pro-forma.

Update, 13 June: A week after we wrote this blog, ANP posted the draft regulations and other materials at http://www.anp-tl.org/webs/anptlweb.nsf/vwAll/PUBLIC%20CONSULTATION. They "highly encourage" and "greatly appreciate" public participation in this consultation, and recently extended the time for written submissions from 14 to 30 June. To make a submission or to ask for more information, contact anp.konsultasaunpubliku@anp-tl.org.

Update 1 July: La'o Hamutuk has made a web page about this consultation process, including the submission we gave to ANP yesterday. The main points of our submission include:

• Timor-Leste’s interests are broader than simply maximizing production of oil and gas, but encompass state revenues, environment, sustainable development, and minimizing risks of injury, damage or corruption.
• Many provisions on environment, health and safety should be improved, including those discussing management of discarded materials, legal frameworks, minimizing risks, banning flaring, defining “best practice” and “reasonably practical,” health and safety committees and audits, sanctions, and protecting against companies’ negligence or malfeasance.
• Before onshore exploration begins, local communities need more consultation and protection.
• Timor-Leste should receive more money from extracting our oil and gas, and not be so generous to the companies.
• All revenues – taxes, royalties, fees, penalties – must be deposited into the Petroleum Fund as required by the Petroleum Fund Law.
• Transparency is generally ignored and sometimes prohibited by these draft regulations and contracts, and needs more attention, requirement and protection.
• Even though local content is unlikely to be a significant element in building Timor-Leste’s non-oil economy, it needs better definition and clearer requirements.
• Obligatory monetary “contributions” from companies are inappropriate, as they violate budgetary and democratic processes.