TL kontinua iha nivel insufisiente ba Indise Transparénsia Orsamentál

Link to this blog in English

OBS 2015: Timor-Leste kontinua iha nivel insufisiente ba Indise Transparénsia Orsamentál – Governu kontinua taka informasaun ne’ebé sidadaun sira presiza atu komprende no influensia uza osan públiku nian.

Relatóriu global ida ne’ebé independente tebes hetan katak Timor-Leste kontinua limita fahe informasaun ba públiku no haklekar sai katak sistema kontabilidade orsamentál nasaun nian ne’e fraku teb-tebes.

International Budget Partnership (IBP) nia relatóriu ba Open Budget Survey 2015 fó sai katak Timor-Leste falla atu aumenta maka’as nia esforsu ba transparénsia nian kona-ba fahe nia informasaun orsamentál ba nia sidadaun sira. Ne’e mak relatóriu ba dala lima hosi IBP, relatóriu ida ne’ebé independente tebes iha mundu, ne’ebé mai hosi survey ne’ebé komparativu duni kona-ba transparénsia orsamentál, ho partisipasaun sidadaun, no instituisaun monitorizasaun sira ne’ebé independente iha prosesu orsamentál. Kombinasaun hosi komponente sira ne’e mak sai tiha pillar importante ba sistema kontabilidade orsamentál nian.

Hosi avaliasaun ba nasaun 102, Survey 2015 nee hetan katak Timor-Leste seidauk hadi’ak natoon atu muda sai hosi kategoria médiu iha Índise Orsamentál ne’ebé Nakloke “Open Budget Index (OBI)”, ne’ebé uza kritériu sira ne’ebé internasionalmente koñesidu atu fó pontuasaun transparénsia nian ho eskalaun hosi 0-100. Nasaun ne’ebé hetan pontu 61 ba leten iha OBI mak bele konsidera nudár nasaun ne’ebé fornese informasaun ba públiku ho sufisiente.

Timor-Leste nia pontuasaun OBI nian iha 41, katak Governu nia informasaun orsamentál ba públiku limitadu tebes. Governu la fó informasaun ne’ebé sufisiente ba sidadaun sira atu nune’e sira bele komprende didi’ak orsamentu no mós atu halo Governu sai kontavel. Timor-Leste iha fatin kategoria médiu iha OBS 2010 no 2012 tanba Governu la publika Pre-Budget Statement (Envelope Fiskál no Orsamentu Sirkulár), Analiza Semestral ba Orsamentu (Mid-Year Review), no la iha inkonsistensia ba publikasaun Relatóriu Trimestral (In Year Report) no Matadalan Sidadania nian.

“Bainhira Governu laiha kontabilidade iha nia orsamentu rasik, entaun susar tebes ba povu Timor-Leste atu bele garante katak sira nia osan ne’e sei uza ba sira nia moris di’ak,” tenik Juvinal Dias, Peskizadór ba asuntu ekonomia no rekursu naturais iha La’o Hamutuk, ne’ebé hala’o peskiza ba Timor-Leste. “Governu loloos tenke publika relatóriu orsamentál trimestral no annual nian tuir tempu, loke partisipasaun públiku nian ba prosesu preparasaun orsamentál nian, no prosesu diskusaun orsamentál labele taka ba públiku, hanesan tinan rua ikus ne’e hala’o hosi Komisaun Eventual.”

Jerálmente, OBS 2015 ne’e hetan katak nasaun 98 hosi nasaun 102 ne’ebé hetan avaliasaun ne’e menus sistema ida ne’ebé adekuadu atu asegura katak osan povu nian ne’e uza tuir dalan ne’ebé efisiente no efikás. Nasaun 98 ne’e falla iha mínimu pillar kontabilidade nian ida hosi pillar tolu seluk (transparénsia, partisipasaun públiku, no fiskalizasaun ne’ebé forte); no nasaun 32 hosi nasaun 98 hirak ne’e monu iha pillar tolu ne’e tomak. Sistema kontabilidade orsamentál ne’ebé fraku tebes iha mundu tomak hatudu hela ameasa ba implementasaun akordu internasionál sira ne’ebé importante, hanesan Nasoins Unidas nia Meta Dezenvolvimentu Sustentável ne’ebé hein atu deside iha Konferénsia Klimátika iha Paris iha 2015.

Iha Pillar primeiru Transparénsia, iha nasaun 24 de’it mak lakon eskalaun ida hosi eskalaun hat ne’ebé iha. Sira nia pontuasaun ne’e liu 60 hosi 100 iha OBI, no nasaun hirak ne’e fó informasaun ne’ebé sufisiente ba nia sidadaun sira ne’ebé bele ajuda sira hodi tau matan ba Governu ne’ebé uza povu nia osan. Ne’e aviza mai ita katak, nasaun 78 seluk , inklui Timor-Leste, ne’ebé fó informasaun orsamentu ne’ebé insufisiente sai uma ba 68% populasaun mundu nian. Nasaun 17 hosi nasaun sira ne’e mak la fó informasaun natoon ka laiha duni informasaun orsamentál ba sira nia sidadaun.

Maski nune’e, estudu ne’e identifika katak transparénsia orsamentál ne’e jerálmente hetan mudansa – deskobrevimentu foun sira ne’e konsistente ho relatóriu anterior sira. Rata-rata pontuasaun OBI nian sa'e to 45. Iha duni progresu ne’ebé forte, partikulármente entre nasaun no rejiaun balu ne’ebé antes ne’e la transparente, inklui Repúblika Kyrgyz (ne’ebé nia OBI ne’e sa’e besik dala tolu), Tunisia (nia OBI efetivamente sa’e dala haat), no Áfrika Osidentál Française.

Bainhira ita junta tiha nasaun sira ne’ebé nia transparénsia fraku ne’e sai ida, ne’e hanesan hamenus oportunidade partisipasaun no tau matan povu nian. Ho pontu 60 ka menus iha parte survey ida ne’e, iha nasaun 95 hosi nasaun 102 mak falla atu fó oportunidade ba partisipasaun públiku nian. Tuir mai, survey mós hetan katak peskiza lejizlativa nian no kapasidade analitiku, no mós kualidade sistema garantia iha maioria órgaun auditoria nian ne’e fraku, hodi fó ameasa ba abilidade instituisaun tau matan sira atu bele efikás hodi asegura povu nia osan.

Timor-Leste nia pontuasaun 10 kona-ba oportunidade ne’ebé Governu fó ba partisipasaun públiku nian iha prosesu orsamentál nian. Ho hanoin atu haforsa Timor-Leste nia instituisaun fiskalizasaun formal sira, pontuasaun ba lejizlatura iha 45 no pontuasaun ba instituisaun supreme ba audit nian ne’e 83. Figura sira ne’e bele hetan mudansa di’ak liután bainhira Governu envolve partisipasaun povu nian bainhira prepara orsamentu estadu nian, Parlamentu tenke garante katak diskusaun no debates orsamentál ne’e sai nakloke liu, katak la uza ona Komisaun Eventual atu deside orsamentu estadu nian. Aleinde ne’e, Governu tenke publika relatóriu audit Tribunal das Contas nian kompletu ne’ebé inklui deklarasaun finanseiru sira ba públiku.

Bainhira ita kombina pillar tolu ne’e tomak, iha de’it nasaun hat hanesan Brazil, Norwegia, Áfrika du Súl no Estadus Unidus mak fó transparénsia orsamentál ne’ebé sufisiente, estabiliza oportunidade ne’ebé sufisiente ba partisipasaun públiku nian no iha instituisaun formal sira ne’ebé halo fiskalizasaun ne’ebé adekuadu.

Pelu kontráriu, survey ne’e hetan katak nasaun 32 mak la sufisiente iha pillar tomak kontabilidade nian. Númeru nee inklui nasaun lubuk ne’ebé konsistente hodi la fó ka laiha duni informasaun orsamentál nian, hanesan: Aljeria, Bolivia, Cambodia, Xina, Giné Equatorial, Fiji, Iraq, Myanmar, Qatar, no Saudi Arabia.

“Públiku presiza asesu ba informasaun orsamentál no oportunidade atu partisipa iha prosesu orsamentál nian. Fiskalizasaun hosi lejizlatura sira no instituisaun auditoria sira ne’ebé la’o hamutuk ne’e sei kontribui ba uza osan povu nian sai kontavel liu,” tenik Warren Krafchik, Diretór Ezekutivu International Budget Partnership. “Haburas órgaun evidénsia nian indika ‘check and balance’ fó rezultadu di’ak ba povu, espesialmente sira ne’ebé kiak ka vulneravel tebes.”

Maski nune’e, progresu substansial bele atinje lalais. Porezemplu, survey hetan katak maioria nasaun sira ne’ebé menus transparente ne’e loloos prodús sira nia informasaun orsamentál ne’ebé signifikante ba sira nia uzu internal; rezultadu boot bele hetan liu hosi kustu ki’ik ida liu hosi publika dokumentu sira ne’e iha Governu nia website.

Meius no mekanizmu atu estabelese pillar kontabilidade orsamentál hirak ne’e loloos iha liman hela. Maibé ikus mai, atu promove transparénsia, partisipasaun no fiskalizasaun ne’e besik sempre fila ba kestaun vontade polítika.

“Timor-Leste nia progresu ne’ebé fraku ne’e fó preokupasaun boot ba ita nia sistema orsamentál nasionál nian atu sai transparente no kontavel liu,’ hateten Juvinal Dias. “Governu tenke foti pasu sira tuir mai atu bele halo mudansa ida ne’ebé rápidu liu hanesan publika informasaun orsamentál nian ba públiku, loke oportunidade ba partisipasaun povu nian iha prosesu halo orsamentu estadu no haforsa fiskalizasaun orsamentál nian hosi órgaun lejizladór no auditoria nian”.

Ita boot bele download verzaun PDF artigu ida ne'e iha Ingles ka Tetum, ka relatoriu global ka Timor-Leste husi Open Budget Survey tinan 2015 iha Ingles.

TL falls short on budget transparency index

Liga ba artigu ida ne'e iha lingua Tetum

Timor-Leste falls short on global budget transparency index—the government continues to deny citizens the information needed to understand and influence the use of public money

Major independent global report finds that Timor-Leste continues to make only limited information available to the public and reveals that overall country budget accountability systems are deficient 

Timor-Leste failed to increase the amount of national budget information it provides to citizens enough to be considered sufficiently transparent, according to the International Budget Partnership’s Open Budget Survey 2015. The report, the fifth of its kind, is the world’s only independent, comparative survey of budget transparency, citizen participation, and independent oversight institutions in the budgeting process. Combined these components are the main pillars of accountable budget systems.

Assessing 102 countries around the world, the 2015 Survey finds that Timor-Leste has yet to improve enough to move out of the middle category on the Open Budget Index, or OBI, which uses internationally recognized criteria to give each country a transparency score on a 100-point scale. For a country to be found to be providing the public with sufficient information, it needs to score above 60 on the OBI.

Timor-Leste’s OBI score of 41 means that the government makes limited budget information publicly available, it does not provide citizens with sufficient information to fully understand the budget and hold the government to account. Timor-Leste has placed in the middle category in the 2010 and 2012 rounds of the Open Budget Survey because the government is not publishing Pre-Budget Statements (Fiscal Envelope and Circular Budget) or Quarterly Budget Analysis (Mid-Year Review), and there have been inconsistencies in the publication of the Quarterly Reports (In Year Report) and the Citizen Budget.

“When the Government lacks accountability in its budget, it is very difficult for the people of Timor-Leste to be able to guarantee that their money will be used to improve their lives,” said Juvinal Dias, Researcher on Economy and Natural Resources with La’o Hamutuk, which conducted the research for Timor-Leste. “The Government should publish quarterly and annual budget reports on time, and open the budget preparation process for public participation – the discussion process for the budget should not be closed to the public, as the Ad-Hoc Committee has done for the last two years.”

Overall, the Open Budget Survey 2015 finds that 98 of 102 countries surveyed lack adequate systems for ensuring that public funds are used efficiently and effectively. The 98 countries fall short on at least one of the pillars of accountability (transparency, public participation, and strength of oversight); 32 of these fall short on all three. The widespread lack of strong budget accountability systems poses a threat to the implementation of critical international agreements, such as the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals and the international agreement that is expected at the 2015 Paris Climate Conference.

On the first pillar of transparency, a mere 24 countries—less than one in four— score over 60 out of 100 on the OBI and thus provide citizens with sufficient information to enable them to monitor the government’s use of public money. Alarmingly, the remaining 78 countries, including Timor-Leste, that provide insufficient budget information are home to 68% of the world’s population. Seventeen of these countries provide scant or no budget information to their citizens.

However, the study finds that budget transparency is generally improving—a finding consistent with previous reports. The average OBI score has increased to 45. Progress was particularly robust among some countries and regions that were previously not as transparent, including the Kyrgyz Republic (its OBI nearly tripled), Tunisia (its OBI effectively quadrupled), and Francophone West Africa.

Compounding the widespread lack of transparency that nonetheless remains is a similar lack of opportunities for public participation and oversight. With scores of 60 or less on this part of the survey, 95 of 102 countries fall short in providing opportunities for public participation. Further, the survey finds that legislative research and analytic capacity, as well as quality assurance systems in most national audit bodies, are lacking, severely compromising the ability of oversight institutions to be effective guardians of the public purse.

Timor-Leste scored 10 on the opportunities the government provides for public participation in budget processes. With regard to the strength of Timor-Leste’s formal oversight institutions, the score for the legislature was 45 and the score for the supreme audit institution was 83. These could be improved if the government encouraged the public participation in the preparation of the budget, if Parliament guarantees that budget discussions and debates are more open, and if the Eventual Commission can no longer make the final decision on the budget. In addition, the Government must publish complete audit reports for the Court of Accounts, including financial declarations to the public.

Combining all three pillars, only four countries, Brazil, Norway, South Africa, and the United States, provide sufficient budget transparency, establish sufficient opportunities for public participation, and have adequate formal oversight institutions.

In contrast, the survey finds that 32 countries are insufficient on all three pillars of accountability. These include a number of countries that have consistently provided scant or no budget information at all: Algeria, Bolivia, Cambodia, China, Equatorial Guinea, Fiji, Iraq, Myanmar, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia.

“The public needs access to budget information and opportunities to participate throughout the budget process. Coupled with oversight by legislatures and audit institutions this contributes to a more accountable use of public money,” said Warren Krafchik, Executive Director of the International Budget Partnership. “A growing body of evidence indicates such budgetary checks and balances yield better outcomes for people, especially those who are poor or vulnerable.”

However, substantial progress can be achieved quickly. For instance, the survey finds that most of the least transparent countries actually produce significant budget information for their internal use; major gains could be made at little cost by just posting these documents on the government website.

The means and mechanisms to establish these budget accountability pillars are readily at hand. Ultimately, advancing transparency, participation, and oversight almost always comes down to a question of political will.

“Timor-Leste’s lack of progress in making our national budget systems more transparent and accountable is of great concern,” said Juvinal Dias. “The government should take the following steps toward rapid improvement: make budget information available to the public; make opportunities available for public participation in the budget process; and strengthen fiscal oversight by the legislator and auditor.”

Download a printable PDF version of this article in English or Tetum, or the global or Timor-Leste-specific reports from the 2015 Open Budget Survey in English.

Come Discuss Agriculture in Timor-Leste's economy

Invitation to a Public Meeting and Discussion

The role of agriculture sector in the economic development of Timor-Leste

Speakers

• Sr. Estanislau A. da Silva, Minister of State and Coordinator of Economic Affairs and Minister of Agriculture and Fisheries
• Guteriano Neves, Researcher at the Research and Analysis Department, Presidential office
• Maxi Tahu, La’o Hamutuk

Date: 7 August 2015

Time: 09.00 to 12.30

Venue: Centro João Paulo II, Comoro - Dili

Contact La’o Hamutuk on 3321040; 77237176 or 77336307 ka  if you need more information

Konvite ba Enkontru Publiku no Diskusaun

Setor Agrikultura nia papel iha dezenvolvimentu ekonomia Timor-Leste nian

Orador sira

• Ministro Estadu Koordenador Asuntu Ekonomia no Ministru Agrikultura no Peska, Sr. Estanislau A. da Silva
• Guteriano Neves, Peskizador Departementu Peskiza no Analiza Presidencia da Republika
• Maxi Tahu, La’o Hamutuk.

Loron: 7 Agostu 2015

Horas: 09.00 - 12.30

Fatin: Centru Joao Paulo II, Comoro – Dili

Se presiza informasaun liu tan bele kontaktu La’o Hamutuk iha 3321040; 77237176 ka 77336307

Riches beyond imagination

Last week, Timor-Leste’s Ministry of Finance proudly proclaimed that “Timor-Leste Takes 87th Place Among Richest Countries in the World.” The announcement was based on a recent article in Global Finance Magazine (also PDF) which used International Monetary Fund (IMF) projections to compare 184 nations. It found that Timor-Leste’s 2013 economy, adjusted for population and local prices, was larger than more than half of the world’s countries.

Unfortunately, the article is outdated and incorrect, as it relied on data published more than two years ago. According to the latest IMF World Economic Outlook published in April 2015, Timor-Leste ranked 122nd (not 87th) in the world in 2013, and is expected to fall six more places in 2014. In the rosy picture relayed by the Ministry of Finance, Timor-Leste is richer than China, Indonesia, Cabo Verde and Fiji. However, current IMF data shows that we are poorer than all of these, although our economy is still proportionally larger than Guinea-Bissau and several ASEAN countries.

We all wish that Timor-Leste’s people were less poor, but wishing doesn’t make it so. We encourage policy-makers to base their decisions on evidence, and not to believe their own public relations. It will take smart thinking and hard work to bring Timor-Leste out of poverty.

Global Finance based its rankings on Gross Domestic Product per capita (GDP pc) adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity (PPP). This number represents the total value of all goods produced and services provided in a given country in a year, divided by the population. In order to compare with other countries, the figure is adjusted for cost of living and currency exchange rates. For example, if goods are cheaper in Timor-Leste than in most countries, adjusting for purchasing power would increase our GDP pc (PPP). The magazine’s article explains this in more detail.

For 2013, Global Finance said that Timor-Leste’s GDP pc (PPP) was $10,784, although it admits that everything after 2009 is an estimate. However, the newer IMF report (which uses estimates after 2011) says it was $5,581. We believe that the more recent estimate is lower because we now have better data and estimates of purchasing power parity.

La’o Hamutuk is concerned that GDP does not reflect the lives of our communities, and we agree with Global Finance that “It is important to notice that GDP is not a perfect measure to describe the well-being and quality of life of populations… In fact, GDP is often considered imperfect even to measure overall economic strength.” By counting dollars instead of people, this indicator shows the wealth enjoyed by the more affluent part of the population, and ignores those who have no money. In addition, about 80% of Timor-Leste’s GDP comes from oil and gas, which employs hardly any people and whose money all goes to the state (which saves part of it while spending some on projects and programs). Furthermore, inflation and prices in Timor-Leste are volatile and different from our neighbors, and therefore adjustments for Purchasing Power Parity may not be accurate.  Global Finance points out that “PPP estimates for developing countries are often rough approximations.”

The Ministry and the magazine based their articles on the IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) published in April 2013, which acknowledged that data after 2009 were estimates. However, the IMF updates these figures annually. During the last two years, government and international agencies have improved their understanding of Timor-Leste’s economy, as shown in reports from the Directorate-General of Statistics, the IMF and others. The April 2015 WEO tells a different story, and we don’t understand why the Ministry didn’t use the most recent information available.

In visual terms, the graph at right shows how Timor-Leste’s rank compared with other countries has changed over time, representing the percentage of countries each year which had a lower GDP per capita PPP than Timor-Leste. The outdated Ministry data are the blue line, and the newer IMF figures are in red. Solid lines are based on actual data, while dashed lines are projections.

In the more recent information, we can see a disturbing trend – Timor-Leste’s ranking has been dropping since 2011 and is expected to continue to fall. This is not surprising -- Timor-Leste’s oil income is declining, while the world has recovered from the 2008-2009 global economic crisis.

Last June, Timor-Leste’s Directorate-General for Statistics (DGS) published new GDP data in its report on National Accounts 2000-2013, but it came out too late to be included in the April 2015 IMF report. DGS found that Timor-Leste’s GDP per capita dropped 16.8% from 2012 to 2013, without adjusting for purchasing power. This trend, which is likely to get worse as oil and gas reserves are depleted and petroleum prices stay low, means that the April 2015 IMF WEO probably overestimates the country’s 2013 GDP, making the Ministry of Finance and Global Finance articles even more distant from reality.

The Ministry was lucky (or persistent) to find an article describing Timor-Leste’s economy in a positive light. The internet has many tabulations like http://www.worldsrichestcountries.com/, and Timor-Leste is always far down the list. Although a few people may take perverse pride in the fact that some countries’ economies are even poorer than ours, the citizens of the Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste – especially impoverished rural residents whose lives are not reflected in these statistics – deserve better.

Bobby Boye's damage to Timor-Leste

Last April, Nigerian-American Bobby Boye admitted to a U.S. court that he defrauded Timor-Leste of $3.5 million dollars, and he will be sentenced in October.  As part of his plea bargain, Boye agreed to to “make full restitution [to Timor-Leste] for all losses resulting from the offense of conviction or from the scheme, conspiracy, or pattern of criminal activity underlying the offense.”  La'o Hamutuk has published a detailed history of Boye's crime and record at http://www.laohamutuk.org/econ/corruption/Boye/14BoyeCase.htm. We just wrote to the prosecutors, estimating what Boye's scheme cost Timor-Leste, and the following is an abridged version of our letter.

15 July 2015

To: Shirley Uchenna Emehelu and Barbara Ward
Office of the U.S. Attorney, New Jersey, USA

As we wrote to the U.S. Attorney nearly one year ago, La’o Hamutuk is a Timor-Leste civil society organization which has followed the activities of Bobby Boye since 2010. After his arrest, La’o Hamutuk published Boye’s long history of  deceit, scams, crimes and occasional sanctions -- forgery, false medical leave claims, disqualification from stock exchange trading, lying on employment applications, fraudulent bankruptcy and  criminal conviction for embezzlement. We believe that the Court should understand the full scope of his conspiracy, which extends far beyond the wire transfers to his non-existent company.

Congratulations on getting Bobby Boye to admit that he defrauded Timor-Leste and to agree to “make full restitution [to Timor-Leste] for all losses resulting from the offense of conviction or from the scheme, conspiracy, or pattern of criminal activity underlying the offense.” We encourage you to share evidence so that Timor-Leste and Norwegian authorities can appropriately enforce their laws, exposing Boye’s conspiracy and making it more difficult for a future fraudster to emulate his misdeeds.

Although the amount of money that Boye admitted that he wired totals $3,510,000, the cost of his scheme to Timor-Leste is many times larger -- our estimate is $176,080,000. We hope that you will impose a sentence which provides restitution to the people of Timor-Leste, more than half of whom live below the poverty line. Timor-Leste is one of the poorest and most oil-export-dependent countries on earth, and our petroleum reserves will soon be exhausted. The losses from Boye’s crimes further cripple inadequate education, health care and other basic services.

Boye laid the foundation for his fraud over several years, obtaining his position through lies and carefully plotting to gain officials' confidence, Even today, Timor-Leste continues to pay for his crimes.

Boye prompted Timor-Leste to make dubious tax assessments against international oil companies, knowing that the companies would pay under protest before they appealed. He then boasted that he had brought in hundreds of millions of dollars in new revenues and promised billions more, thereby “proving” his skills and the incompetence of his predecessors, and earning the unquestioning trust of Timor-Leste officials. The scheme also reinforced his recommendation for Timor-Leste to tighten its tax regulations, opening the way for the fraudulent contracts and wire transfers resulting from his conspiracy.

The companies' appeals of these tax assessments are pending arbitration rulings in Singapore, and Timor-Leste may lose most or all of them. In addition to having to return the payments, Timor-Leste could be ordered to pay interest, legal costs and perhaps penalties. Timor-Leste has also spent millions of dollars to hire attorneys in an effort to limit the damage from Boye’s actions.

Boye’s scheme has inflicted or will inflict financial losses in excess of one hundred and seventy million dollars, as estimated in this table.

Note 4: Although we do not know the exact amount assessed, ConocoPhillips' recent SEC Report says:

“ConocoPhillips served a Notice of Arbitration on the Timor-Leste Minister of Finance in October 2012 for outstanding disputes related to a series of tax assessments. As of March 31, 2015, ConocoPhillips has paid, under protest, tax assessments totaling approximately $237 million, which are primarily recorded in the “Investments and long-term receivables” line on our consolidated balance sheet. The arbitration hearing was conducted in Singapore in June 2014 under the United Nations Commission on International Trade Laws (UNCITRAL) arbitration rules, pursuant to the terms of the Tax Stability Agreement with the Timor-Leste government. Post-hearing briefs from both parties were filed in August 2014. We are now awaiting the Tribunal’s decision. Future impacts on our business are not known at this time.”

ConocoPhillips owns 57% of the Bayu-Undan joint venture, so other partners’ assessments are about $179 million more. Boye also assessed 

back taxes from other companies, including $25 million paid under protest by Woodside Australian Energy in relation to a different project.

Bobby Boye probably does not have sufficient assets to make restitution for all of these losses. However, he should not be allowed to replicate his 2004 scam, when he concealed $250,000 in stolen money while convincing a Bankruptcy Court to release him from $100,000 in personal debts. Timor-Leste’s losses are 700 times greater than Boye’s previous embezzlement, and its people will suffer far more from non-restitution than the shareholders of the company he stole from a decade ago.

In addition to these financial losses, Boye’s crimes caused incalculable damage to the rule of law in Timor-Leste. Last October, Timorese leaders blamed the impending loss of Boye-initiated tax cases on Portuguese prosecutors and judges in Dili District court. A Parliamentary resolution used “the set of legal proceedings, under which the contractors on oil exploration Bayu-Undan sued the State in more than 50 complex processes related with international taxation matters and those procedures has been brought before the national court as well” to validate then-Prime Minister Xanana Gusmão’s breach of separation of powers by illegally firing all non-Timorese judges and prosecutors, undermining the Constitution of this young democracy.

Another inestimable loss resulting from Boye’s scheme is the time and attention it took from many high-level Timorese officials, including the Prime Minister, Minister of Finance, Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources, and Minister of State for the Council of Ministers. This reduced their credibility and their effectiveness to carry out other responsibilities. It also damaged public confidence in and efficacy of revenue collection, especially from the oil and gas activities which provide more than 90% of the nation’s income.

In addition, this conspiracy has damaged Timor-Leste’s reputation in the international investment community, making it more difficult to attract the businesses and capital needed to develop the country. At the same time, Timor-Leste has been marked as a possible easy target for scammers and thieves who want to steal part of the country’s $17 billion Sovereign Wealth Fund.

We do not know who else was complicit in Boye’s crimes. The only person who has been named so far is Tiago Guerra, a Portuguese consultant and businessman who lived next to Boye in Dili. Last October, Guerra was arrested for money-laundering, imprisoned for six months without charges, and is still barred from leaving the country. However, Guerra has not yet been tried, while other co-conspirators enjoy impunity and may continue to steal from the country’s citizens.

Note 7, added 23 July: After this letter was delivered, we realized that the preceding paragraph is misleading. La'o Hamutuk did not intend to write that Tiago Guerra conspired with Bobby Boye, or that Guerra is guilty of criminal activity. Although Guerra was arrested and imprisoned for nearly nine months and is still barred from leaving Timor-Leste, no formal legal charges have been filed against him. Guerra maintains his innocence and has not had a chance to defend himself in court. Like everyone else, he should be presumed innocent until proven guilty. In a democratic nation under rule of law, “suspicion” that someone is involved in money-laundering does not justify violating their rights. La'o Hamutuk is not aware of any evidence which links Tiago Guerra with Bobby Boye’s crimes, and we did not mean to imply that the two were co-conspirators.
     However, we wonder if the state's pursuit of Guerra without proper legal process diverts attention from others who were complicit in Boye’s crimes and may still be in positions to steal from the country's citizens. On 20 July, Dili District Court sentenced the former Minister of Education to seven years in prison in a separate corruption case, reminding everyone that some Timorese public officials abuse public property for private gain. We continue to encourage a thorough investigation to find out who was involved with Boye's conspiracy.

Judge Wolfson’s recent acceptance of your request to delay sentencing until October allows time to develop a more complete and accurate accounting of “all losses resulting from the offense of conviction or from the scheme, conspiracy, or pattern of criminal activity underlying [Boye’s] offense,” for which he has agreed to “make full restitution.” We hope that you will make a determined, effective effort to convince the judge to implement that part of the plea agreement.

Thank you very much for your attention to this letter and to this case.

Sincerely,

Juvinal Dias             Adilson da Costa Junior          Charles Scheiner

Researchers at La’o Hamutuk

Oil running out is reality, not propaganda

Download this letter as a PDF in Tetum or English.

An open letter to their Excellencies, Members of Parliament Sra. Brigida Correia, Sr. Arão Noe, Sra. Jacinta Abu Pereira and Sr. Adriano do Nascimento

Dili, 15 June 2015

On 13 April, CJITL published an article titled Timor-Leste Will ‘Sink’ in 2016 when Kitan Oil Field will be empty (Timor Leste Sei ‘Mout’, Tinan 2016 Kampu Mina Kitan Sei Maran). The article was based on an interview with La’o Hamutuk researcher Charles Scheiner, who said that, “there is a possibility that Timor-Leste’s money will run out in the future, because the State depends mainly on oil revenues to sustain the country’s economy. The country might sink because there hasn’t been enough investment to develop sustainable sources of revenue”.  On 17 April, La’o Hamutuk published Timor-Leste’s Oil and Gas are Going Fast.

After these articles were published, some Members of Parliament did recognize that our oil will indeed run out eventually. However, others responded by saying that people should not believe La’o Hamutuk’s analysis. Deputada Brigida Correia said that “La’o Hamutuk NGO’s staff are not technical people who can know when the oil will run out. They don’t do clear research...”

La’o Hamutuk’s goal is simply to help the public to know accurate information about petroleum and gas reserves and production, as well as about Timor-Leste’s fiscal policies, based on facts and evidence, rather than listening to political speeches which lack solid factual basis. We would like to take this opportunity to point out that La’o Hamutuk’s articles and commentary are based on data and reports published by the National Petroleum Authority (ANP), Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI), the Ministry of Finance, and the Central Bank of Timor-Leste (BCTL).

This is why we are convinced that our oil and gas will run out, which will impact the future sustainability of Timor-Leste’s economy:

• The Bayu-Undan oil field, which began production in 2003, reached peak production levels in 2012, after which it began to decline, with production expected to end in 2020. The Ministry of Finance’s report in Book 1 of the original 2015 General State Budget, Table 2.6.3.1.2, page 60 (English version), confirms that production in the Joint Petroleum Development Area (JPDA) will fall to zero by 2021. It also says that by 2018 production levels will have fallen to half the production level during 2006-2013. This document also shows that as of 2015, 75% of these natural resources have already been converted into financial assets.
  
  
• The Kitan oil field began production in 2011. Revenue from Kitan dropped 85% between 2013 and 2014, because the reserve is almost depleted. Kitan will provide revenue only until 2016, according to Book 1 of the 2015 General State Budget.
  
  
• During 2014, revenues from oil and gas were 40% lower than in 2013. This happened because total production of oil and gas fell by 24% between 2013 and 2014, as well as due to the fall in the price of Brent crude on the world market. The income from these reserves has already dropped drastically.
  
  
• After 2016, only Bayu-Undan will provide revenue to Timor-Leste, but it will not be at 2012 levels. Unless the Greater Sunrise gas field is developed quickly, there won’t be any oil and gas fields furnishing revenue to Timor-Leste after 2020.
  
  
• Furthermore, the recently-published Ministry of Finance/General Directorate of Statistics (DGE) National Accounts 2000-2013 report shows that oil GDP between 2012 and 2013 fell sharply. Although this report shows a small increase in non-oil GDP, this will become increasingly difficult to maintain as Government and development partners’ spending decreases.

Additionally, we recall that companies drilled many test wells companies in the JPDA and Timor-Leste’s exclusive area since Timor-Leste restored its independence in 2002, but unfortunately, Kitan was the only commercially viable discovery.

Today, a few oil companies are still looking for new fields in the Timor Sea. The Kuda Tasi/Jahal field does contain petroleum, but at this point the companies do not believe it contains enough recoverable oil to justify their investment.

The ANP publishes monthly production data on their website which is consistent with what La’o Hamutuk and the Ministry of Finance have published. During 2014, the JPDA produced an average of 136,000 barrels per day, compared with 179,000 bbl/day in 2013, and 202,000 bbl/day in 2012.

We understand that people working in the petroleum sector are responsible to promote their sector in order to encourage oil companies to invest. However, political decision-makers should not confuse these public relations with the reality that our non-renewable oil resources will run out. We emphasize that Timor-Leste is not an oil-rich nation.

Although Timor-Leste’s petroleum leaders often say that more oil and gas will be found, we should consider that the oil companies have more information and more objective analysis than the ANP or TimorGAP about the potential of the natural resources in the Timor Sea. We would like to share a few points about the history of oil exploration in Timor-Leste:

• Kitan is the only commercial discovery since 1997, even though many test wells and extensive seismic exploration have been conducted.
  
  
• In 2006, when the Government held bidding rounds for new offshore exploration in the JPDA and Timor-Leste’s exclusive area, no companies already involved in the area submitted bids. This is the only bidding round Timor-Leste has held so far.
  
  
• Since 2010, the Government has planned to hold another bidding round, but oil companies have not shown interest, so it has been repeatedly postponed. We should not hold a bidding round if no companies want to participate.

La’o Hamutuk is a Timor-Leste institute that was founded in 2000 by Timorese and international activists who, during the Indonesian military occupation, stood in solidarity with all the people of Timor-Leste in their fight for independence.

La’o Hamutuk’s principal role is to monitor and analyze the development process in Timor-Leste, with the vision that “The people of Timor-Leste, women and men, of current and future generations, will live in peace and contentment. They will control a transparent, just and sustainable development process which respects all people’s cultures and rights. All citizens will benefit from Timor-Leste’s resources, and will accept the responsibility for protecting them.” The people of Timor-Leste should actively participate in the development process, giving ideas and suggestions and helping make decisions that are transparent and accountable.

This vision compels us to facilitate communication between the people and our leaders by researching, analyzing and sharing accurate, fact-based information which relates to Timor-Leste’s people’s lives.

We believe that everyone has the right to objective and clear information which reflects reality. La’o Hamutuk’s fundamental principle to provide this kind of information to Timor-Leste’s people.

Thank you.

Juvinal Dias    Charles Scheiner    Pelagio Doutel    Adilson da Costa    Niall Almond

Natural Resources and Economy Researchers at La’o Hamutuk

Sosiedade Sivíl ba Enkontru Parseiru Dezenvolvimentu - Ekonomia

Link to this article in English, ka ba PDF bele print

Komentáriu Sosiedade Sivíl ba Enkontru Parseiru Dezenvolvimentu Timor-Leste iha 2015

Setór Ekonomia

Ho oportunidade ida ne’e, ami hakarak foka sai ami nia rekomendasaun atu bele dezenvolve estratéjia ekonómiku ida ba Timor-Leste, ne’ebé ho maka’as ami husu ba Parseiru Dezenvolvimentu, hamutuk ho Governu Timor-Leste, atu suporta hodi bele hadi’ak kualidade moris ba povu Timor-Leste tomak, ohin no aban-bainrua nian.

Nudár sombriña ba organizasaun sosiedade sivíl sira iha Timor-Leste, FONGTIL apresia ba esforsu hosi Parseiru Dezenvolvimentu sira ne’ebé kontinua fó suporta ba nasaun ida ne’e, no ami espera katak tulun sira ne’e bele ajuda duni povu Timor-Leste.

Durante ne’e, Parseiru Dezenvolvimentu barak mak konkorda ho ami nia observasaun no rekomendasaun sira katak dalan dezenvolvimentu ohin loron nian ne’e la sustentável. Infelizmente, normálmente ami rona ida ne’e iha konversa privadu ka lee iha ita-boot sira nia dokumentu internal nian, duke rona ka hare iha ita-boot sira nia deklarasaun iha públiku. Ami enkoraja ita-boot sira atu lalika subar realidade moris ne’ebé ita-boot sira hare no hatene kona-ba diresaun polítika Timor-Leste nian, maibé sai nakloke no barani liu tan, hodi nune’e bele ajuda ami nia na’i-ulun sira atu bele responde ba ami nia preokupasaun no rekomendasaun sira. Timor-Leste enfrenta dezafiu barak atu bele hasees-an hosi dependensia ba esportasaun petróleu ne’ebé limitadu tebes, no ami presiza tulun hotu atu enfrenta dezafiu ida ne’e.

Banku Mundial no Ministériu Finansas nia relatóriu konjunta kona ba Public Expenditure Review: Infrastructure ne’ebé publika iha fulan Marsu liu ba, esplika katak:

Moras Olanda hamenus kresimentu ekonomia ba tempu naruk nian … maioria kona-ba kresimentu ekonomia ne’ebé hetan bele esplika hosi hasa’e despeza no investimentu Governu nian, ho investimentu setór privadu nian ne’ebé la’o neineik. ...... Kresimentu iha setór sira ne’ebé la direitamente depende ba despeza Governu nian maibé depende ba dezenvolvimentu infrastrutura sira ne’ebé eziste ona atu halo produsaun sei nafatin ki’ik. Dezde 2007, setór agrikultura nia produsaun totál tun ona.

Maski relatóriu ida ne’e la ko’alia direitamente ka espesífiku hanesan esbosu anterior sira, ami hare katak hanoin ida ne’e hanesan mós ho preokupasaun sira ne’ebé organizasaun sosiedade sivíl sira foti dezde tinan hirak liu ba, bainhira Timor-Leste falla atu dezenvolve nia ekonomia lokál ida ne’ebé bele prodús sasán sira ne’ebé bele kompete ho sasán importasaun nian, no mós fakar povu nia osan barak hodi “investe” ba projetu sira ne’ebé folin karun, kualidade fraku, no hare ba sei la fornese retornu ne’ebé signifikante.. Buat sira ne’e akontese tanba Timor-Leste prefere liu atu sadere nia moris ba rendimentu “rentista” hosi mina-rai no gas, evita nesesidade atu hetan rendimentu alternativu ka la kuidadu hodi jere povu nia osan ho kuidadu. Impaktu ida ne’ebé boot liu hosi ”malisan rekursu” ida ne’e sei kona Timor-Leste maizumenus 2026, tinan lima hafoin kampu mina-rai Bayu-Undan, ne’ebé nia produsaun másimu nian iha 2012 ne’e sai maran tiha.

Maski ami komprende katak dala barak Governu lakohi atu hare ita-boot sira nia relatóriu sira ne’ebé foka sai duvida ka sujere mudansa ba iha sira nia desizaun, maibé ida ne’e la signifika katak ita boot sira atu labele hateten loloos no halo sensura ba realidade ne’ebé Timor-Leste enfrenta hela.

Ami mós enkoraja Governu atu publika dokumentu sira ho pontualidade, loos no kompletu. Maski ami kontente katak Portal Transparensia foin lalais ne’e hahú fali, maibé ami triste katak Governu prevene atu publika IMF nia relatóriu Article IV tinan kotuk, no mós Konta Nasional hosi 2013 seidauk publika no Governu hasai komparisaun ho tinan pasadu hosi Labor Force Survey. Ami espera katak relatóriu sensu no Living Standards Survey sei publika ho lalais, kompletu no loos, atu fornese evidénsia hodi ajuda Governu atu bele halo polítika ida ne’ebé matenek no fo rezultadu di’ak.

Rendimentu petróleu no gas sei kontinua tun.

Povu Timor-Leste moris iha nasaun ida, entre nasaun sira seluk ne’ebé depende maka’as ba esportasaun petróleu iha mundu. Iha 2014, 73% reseita estadu nian ne’e mai hosi fan petróleu no gas, no 20% seluk mai hosi retornu investimentu Fundu Petrolíferu nian.

Infelizmente Timor-Leste pasa ona nia rendimentu no produsaun másimu iha 2012. Durante 2014, Timor-Leste nia rendimentu hosi petróleu menus 40% kompara ho rendimentu ne’ebé ita hetan iha 2013, tanba rezerva petróleu no gas hosi kampu Bayu-Undan no Kitan hahú mihis ona no tanba presu mina-rai ne’ebé tun. To’ ohin loron, liu 74% hosi rezerva kampu rua ne’e ita supa hotu ona.

Gráfika ida ne’e hatudu produsaun no reseita ida ne’ebé tun maka’as dezde 2012, no liña pontilhada verde hosi 2015 hatudu sai projeksaun reseita nian ne’ebé fahe hosi Ministériu Finansas iha sira nia workshop ba Jornadas Orcamentais iha semana rua liubá.

Daudauk ne’e, Governu halo esforsu ida ne’ebé maka’as atu harii infrastrutura petróleu nian iha kosta súl Timor-Leste nian ho esperansa katak indústria petróleu iha rai maran Timor-Leste nian ne’e bele sei estimula dezenvolvimentu kampu servisu no ekonomia nian. Kada tinan, Orsamentu Jerál Estadu nian tinan-tinan aloka ona osan tokon barak ba projetu ida ne’e, no mós sei foti rai produtivu komunidade nian ba agrikultura nian. Maski nune’e, atu kompleta komponente sira hosi projetu ambisiozu ida ne’e, ita sei presiza investimentu osan billaun barak tan, no hare ba nia benefísiu la justifika nia kustu, risku no impaktu sosiu-ambiental nian.

Timor-Leste dezeñu projetu Tasi Mane ida ne’e bazeia ba espetasaun katak petróleu no gas natural hosi kampu Greater Sunrise nian ne’ebé nia prosesamentu sei halo iha rai maran Timor-Leste nian. Infelizmente, kompañia ho Governu Timor-Leste seidauk iha konkordansa oinsá atu dezenvolve kampu ne’e, no Australia lakohi atu diskute fronteira maritima ida ne’ebé permanente, nune’e kampu ne’e la hahú produsaun molok Fundu Petróliferu maran ona. Timor-Leste labele sadere nia ami nia futuru ba posibilidade deskobrimentu foun ba kampu mina-rai seluk, no Greater Sunrise, maski depois disputa ne’e rezolve ona, ne’ebé sei la fornese reseita natoon atu finansia ita nia rai doben ida ne’e, ne’ebé sei la’o hakat hela no dezenve hela. iha dékada ida oin mai, nasaun ida ne’e sei bele hasoru krize finansiál ida ne’ebé ita labele evita ona, sei la iha osan atu selu ba servisu báziku hanesan edukasaun, polísia, saúde, bee moos no estrada sira.

Ukun na’in sira, espesialmente sira ne’ebé servisu iha setór petróleu, fila-fila hateten katak kampu mina-rai rua ne’e sei la maran no hein hela atu hetan tan rezerva foun, maibé ita labele nega realidade ida ne’e ita hasoru hela. Timor-Leste iha ona urjénsia atu buka fontes servisu, ekonomia no rendimentu ida liu hosi husi dezenvolve setór ekonomia produtivu naun petróleu hanesan agrikultura, turizmu no indústria ki’ik. Nune’e, husi ohin ba oin, ita presiza duni mudansa ida ne'ebé radikál liu iha diresaun nasaun ne’e nian hodi prepara an atu ba hasoru tempu oin mai ne’ebé sei laiha rendimentu mina-rai.

Osan Mina-rai la to’o atu finansia ita nia orsamentu.

Hosi 2003 to ohin loron, Timor-Leste konverte ona nia riku soin billaun $20 ne’ebé ita gasta ona billaun $6, no billaun ida tan sei gasta iha tinan 2015 nia rohan. Aleinde ne’e mós, ita hetan liu tokon $2.7 durante tinan sanulu hosi investimentu Fundu Petroleu iha ekidade no obligasaun internasional nian. Iha Marsu 2015 nia rohan, ita nia Fundu Petrolíferu nia saldu hamutuk billaun $16.82 kompara ho saldu billaun $16.58 iha Setembru 2014 nian. Ne’e aumentu de’it 1.4%, hodi hatudu ba ita katak ita labele ona atu depende ba investimentu Fundu Petrolíferu no reseita hosi kampu Bayu-Undan no Kitan nian.

Durante tinan hitu kotuk ne’e, Timor-Leste gasta ona billaun $6.6, ne’ebé billaun $5.7 ne’e finansia hosi Fundu Petróliferu. Maski eskalasaun orsamentu ne’ebé lalais hosi 2007-2012 la’o neineik, maibé despeza ne’ebé ezekuta durante 2014 sa’e 28% kompara ho tinan 2013, no despeza rekurrente nian sa’e 26%. Karik projetu sira ne’ebé dezeñu ona ka la’o hela daudauk ne’e implementa duni, orsamentu sei sa’e maka’as iha tinan sira oin mai, no ida ne’e sei sai at liu tan bainhira ita selu ita nia tusan.

Karik gastu estadu ida ne’e nafatin la’o tuir lala’ok orsamentál nian ohin loron, Fundu Petrolíferu sei automatikamente tun maka’as iha 2017, maski ita bele hetan kresimentu double digit ba rendimentu doméstiku anuál nian, no Fundu ne’e sei hotu duni lalais tinan lima hafoin produsaun hosi Bayu-Undan remata iha 2020.

Maski ikus mai Greater Sunrise bele fó osan, provavelmente entre billaun $15-$20 durante tinan 20, maibé ida ne’e sei la natoon atu finansia Timor-Leste nia orsamentu estadu. Ita nia populasaun ne’ebé aumenta maka’as, ne’ebé sei presiza estadu atu gasta osan barak tan ba fornesimentu servisu sira ne’ebé ho kualidade di’ak. Aleinde ne’e, sei gasta osan barak tan mós atu funsiona no halo manutensaun ba infrastrutura fíziku sira ne’ebé ita harii ona.

Iha fulan kotuk, Ministériu Finansas halo sira nia Jornadas Orçamentais atu deside envelope fiskál ba 2016 hamutuk ho billaun $1.3. Ami apresia tebes ba pasu di’ak ida atu hamenus despeza estadu nian, maski ida ne’e sei difisil atu implementa lahó halo desizaun polítiku ida ne’ebé difisil mos. Ami espera katak Parseiru Dezenvolvimentu sira bele ajuda Governu hodi hadi’ak liu tan jestaun finanseiru públiku nian atu nune’e, despeza estadu nian iha futuru bele efikás liu tan no mós tau valor ba despeza ne’ebé ita halo. Ami mós espera katak osan sira ne’ebé bele poupa tan liu hosi kansela tiha proposta projetu sira ne’ebé hafoin halo analiza ba kustu, benefísiu, risku no estudu viabilidade nian ne’ebé objetivu no kompletu, ne’ebé hetan katak laiha razaun ka la realistiku atu implementa, hodi nune’e bele aloka fali osan, rekursu umanus no espasu polítika ba programa ne’ebé fó rezultadu sira ne’ebé sustentável, ekitavel no realistiku mai ami nia populasaun.

Non-oil GDP kontinua estagnadu.

Iha enkontru Parseiru Dezenvolvimentu iha 2014, no mós enkontru sira seluk antes, ami sempre subliña katak importante tebes atu dezenvolve setór ekonomia produtivu hanesan agrikultura, turizmu no indústria ki’ik hodi bele troka ekonomia mina-rai ne’ebé sei hotu iha tinan lima oin mai.

Ami hare katak Parseiru Dezenvolvimentu sira nia relatóriu sira, inklui Governu nian, rekoñese duni katak Timor-Leste nia setór ekonomia naun petróleu stagnadu. Maski GDP la’ós meius ne’ebé di’ak atu sukat dezenvolvimentu ekonómika (tanba meius ne’e sukat osan de’it, la sukat povu, liu liu povu kiak ne’ebé barak), maibé ami la iha dadus seluk. Iha 2012, ita nia GDP naun petróleu iha billaun $1,246 ka 22% hosi total GDP Timor-Leste nian. Maski nune’e, metade hosi númeru GDP naun petróleu ne’e mai hosi despeza estadu (osan mina-rai) ba konstrusaun no administrasaun públiku nian. Bainhira kresimentu iha despeza estadu nian neineik, kresimentu GDP naun petróleu nian mós neineik; GDP total tun tanba rendimentu petróleu mós tun. Tabela iha liman los hatudu karak Governu no Instituisaun Finansial Internasionál sira nia figura ba GDP naun petróleu no GDP total nia kresimentu ne’ebé tun tanba realidade tuir duni projeksaun no estimatizasaun nian.

Foin lalais, ami haree estatístika sira kona-ba empregu ne’ebé halo ami sente urjénsia boot liu. Tuir Peskiza kona ba Atividade Negósiu iha Timor-Leste 2013, empregu iha setór privadu tun tiha durante 2012-2013, no iha tempu hanesan povu Timor-Leste ne’ebé tama ba kampu servisu na’in tinan-tinan hamutuk ema na’in 18,000. Bainhira Governu implementa sira nia promete sira atu hadi’a sira nia servisu funsionáriu públiku sira, nune’e funsionáriu iha setór públiku bele tun. Povu sira, parseiru dezenvolvimentu sira no Governu mós tenke servisu hamutuk hodi kria empreza sira ne’ebé mak bele suporta ita nia família, ekonomia no estadu. Ida ne’e difisil liu duke fahe kontratu estadu nian ba kompañia privadu lokál sira.

Dala ida tan, ami bolu parseiru dezenvolvimentu sira nia atensaun atu kontinua bolu governu Timor-Leste atu fó liu prioridade ba dezenvolve setór ekonomia naun petrolíferu ne’ebé produtivu duké dezenvolve infrastrutura no megaprojetu sira ne'ebé karun, sei foti rai agrikultura barak, estraga ambientál, kria kampu servisu uitoan no halo Timor-Leste hodi lakon nia oportunidade atu dezenvolve nia setór importante.

Setor produtivu ne'ebé importante atu dezenvolve

Iha 2014 Timor-Leste nia balansu komérsiu hatudu katak nasaun ki’ik ne’e gasta tokon $526 atu importa sasán merkadorias sira, no ita nia rendimentu hosi atividade esportasaun iha de’it tokon $ 14 ne’ebé 95% mai hosi fan kafé. Ita iha defisit merkadoria iha 2014 hamutuk tokon $511, númeru ida ne’ebé atu hanesan ho figura iha 2013.

Agrikultura maka setór produtivu importante ida ne'ebé bele dudu ekonomia Timor-Leste nian, tanba setór ne’e envolve povu barak liu no prodús ai-han ne’ebé importante loos atu bele hamenus dependensia ba ai-han importa. Tanba ne'e ami konkorda ho ema barak nia hanoin katak setór Agrikultura tenke sai prioridade, no mós ami preokupa kona-ba ema balun hosi sidade la apresia toos na’in subsistensia. Maibé modelu dezenvolvimentu agrikultura ida ne'e oras Timor-Leste adopta la refleta Timor-Leste nia realidade no nesesidade. Ho rai agrikultura ne'ebé ki’ik, 60% uma kain iha rai entre 0.5-2.0 há, 40% rai lolon, modelu agrikultura ida ne'ebé ami hanoin soi liu ba Timor-Leste mak modelu agrikultura familiar eskala ki’ik kombina ho aplikasaun teknolojia no siénsia ne'ebé apropriadu. Produsaun tenke orienta ba responde nesesidade uma laran, rai laran hafoin mak rai li’ur.

Kona ba turizmu ami fiar katak Timor-Leste sei hetan benefísiu boot liu husi setór turizmu bainhira ita preserva didi’ak ita nia riku soin natural no kulturál sira. Timor-Leste sei iha liu vantajen atu kompete ho nasaun viziñu sira atu atrai turista sira ne'ebé hakarak koko esperiénsia foun, dada iis anin fresku iha foho sira, asiste kultura tradisionál sira, koko hahán lokál no moris hamutuk ho komunidade lokál. Ho modelu turizmu ne'e, komunidade sira sei hetan benefísiu liu, no bele evita perigu sira hosi turizmu masa no bainaka ‘elite’ sira.

Ami hanoin katak programa atu harii indústria ki’ik sira hanesan prosesamentu ai han, halo fábrika ki’ik sira ne’ebé nia material primer bele mai hosi Timor-Leste, aumenta produsaun rai laran, no hamenus importasaun nudár polítika diversifikasaun ekonomia ida ne’ebé urjente. Ami husu ita-boot sira, nudár parseiru ba dezenvolvimentu ba Timor-Leste atu mós adopta prinsípiu dezenvolvimentu ekonomia lokál duke depende ba sasán importasaun hosi rai li’ur.

Obrigado barak. 

Ita boot bele hetan informasaun no  dokumentu sira tan husi TLDPM 2015 iha ne'e.