Mai Enkontru Publiku kona-ba Projetu Tasi Mane

 Link to this blog article in English 

Projetu Tasi Mane nia Implikasaun ba Timor-Leste nia Ekonomia no Sosiedade

Kinta, 22 Outubru 2015    9:00–12:30
  Auditorium Liceu UNTL, Kaikoli, Dili

Timor-Leste nudár nasaun ne’ebé depende maka’as ba reseita mina-rai iha mundu: 73% estadu nia reseita iha 2014 mai hosi fa’an mina no gas, no 20% tan hosi reseita investimentu ne’ebé hosi Fundu Petrolíferu. Iha 2014, reseita petrolíferu tun 40% kompara ho tinan kotuk tanba folin mina-rai mundiál tun maka’as, no mós produsaun ne’ebé tun 24% tanba rezerva mihis ona – nivel produsaun másimu ita hetan iha 2012, hafoin ne’e komesa tun, no sei kontinua tun bainhira Kitan remata nia produsaun iha tinan ida ne’e, enkuantu Bayu-Undan remata depois tinan lima tan.

Planu Estratéjiku Dezenvolvimentu 2011-2030 fó informasaun balun kona-ba Projetu Tasi Mane – Suai Supply Base, Refinaria Betano, LNG Plant Beaçu, no Auto-estrada Costa Súl. La’o Hamutuk fó preokupasaun boot ba projetu ne’e nia viabilidade ekonómika, impaktu meiu ambientál no sosiál sira ohin no ba futuru. Ami diskute ona ho ema balun hosi Governu, sosiedade sivíl no ajénsia internasionál sira, no haree katak ema barak iha preokupasaun hanesan ami.

Timor-Leste tama ona iha ‘malisan rekursu’ – katak estadu sira ne’ebé depende ba rekursu naun-renovavel, dala barak falla atu dezenvolve fonte rendimentu seluk tanba sira hanoin katak mina-rai sei nunka maran. Sira mós falla atu hadi’ak povu nia moris tanba la investe iha saúde, edukasaun no servisu esensiál sira seluk. Ita nia rekursu mina-rai sai maran, no agora iha ema barak ne’ebé mak rekoñese ona katak ita tenke diversifíka ita nia ekonomia atu salva ita nia an hosi dependénsia ba mina-rai.

Timor-Leste tenke halo avaliasaun kle’an liu tan kona-ba karik Projetu Tasi Mane ne’e sei fó vantajen ba povu Timor-Leste – projetu ne’e nia kustu billaun barak atu implementa, ne’ebé nia fonte sei ma hosi parte boot Timor-Leste nia riku soin mina-rai no gas. Projetu ne’e sei hamenus prioridade estadu nian ba saúde, edukasaun, sanitasaun no agrikultura, buat sira ne’ebé mak esensiál atu hadi’ak ita nia povu nia moris, dezenvolve ita nia rekursu umanus no dezenvolve ekonomia non-oil. Aleinde ne’e, projetu ne’e uza rai barak ne’ebé importante ba agrikultura, no ida ne’e sei hamenus produsaun agrikultura, no ita nia dependénsia ba importasaun hosi rai li’ur sei kontinua.

Enkontru públiku ne’e envolve aprezentasaun hosi Francisco Monteiro, Prezidente TimorGAP, no Juvinal Dias hosi La’o Hamutuk, no hafoin ne’e diskusaun. Ita aprende kona-ba TimorGAP nia planu no estratéjia sira. La’o Hamutuk fahe nia perspetiva kritika (PowerPoint ka PDF), no partisipante nain 150 halo diskusaun ba oras rua.

Come to a public meeting about the Tasi Mane Project

 Liga ba artigu ida ne'e iha Tetun

The Implications of the Tasi Mane Project for Timor-Leste’s Society and Economy

Thursday, 22 October 2015    9:00 – 12:30
Auditorium, UNTL Liceu campus, Kaikoli, Dili

Timor-Leste is one of the most petroleum dependent countries in the world: sales of oil and gas made up 73% of state revenues in 2014, and another 20% came from the investment of past oil income. However, in 2014, oil revenues fell by 40% compared to the previous year. This was partly a result of the fall in global oil prices, but was also largely due to the fact that production levels fell by 24% in the same period. Our oil is running out – production peaked in 2012, and will continue to fall as Kitan ends production this year, and Bayu-Undan ends around five years after that.

The Tasi Mane Project – the Suai Supply Base, Betano Refinery, Beaçu LNG Plant and South Coast Highway – is discussed in the national Strategic Development Plan 2011-2030. However, La’o Hamutuk has serious concerns about the economic feasibility of this project, as well its current and future environmental and social impacts. We have discussed this issue with people in Government, civil society and international agencies, and many of them share our concerns.

Timor-Leste is falling into the ‘resource curse’ – where states who depend on extracting non-renewable resources neglect sustainable alternative economic sectors because decision-makers believe that oil will last forever. They also fail to improve their people’s well-being by under-investing in public health, education and other essential services. As our oil deposits run out, more and more people inside and outside Government recognize that we must escape from petroleum dependency by diversifying the economy.

We need to consider carefully whether the Tasi Mane petroleum infrastructure project moves us in this direction – it will cost billions to implement, a significant fraction of Timor-Leste’s finite oil and gas wealth. This takes money away from health care, education, sanitation and agriculture, all of which are essential for improving quality of life, strengthening human resources and growing the non-oil economy. Also, these projects will take up valuable agricultural land, reducing productivity and continuing dependency on imports.

The following paragraph was revised after the meeting.

This public meeting began with presentations by Francisco Monteiro, President of TimorGAP and Juvinal Dias of La’o Hamutuk, followed by two hours of lively discussion among the 150 participants. They heard TimorGAP’s plans and dreams, as well as La’o Hamutuk's skeptical perspective (PowerPoint or PDF).

TL kontinua iha nivel insufisiente ba Indise Transparénsia Orsamentál

Link to this blog in English

OBS 2015: Timor-Leste kontinua iha nivel insufisiente ba Indise Transparénsia Orsamentál – Governu kontinua taka informasaun ne’ebé sidadaun sira presiza atu komprende no influensia uza osan públiku nian.

Relatóriu global ida ne’ebé independente tebes hetan katak Timor-Leste kontinua limita fahe informasaun ba públiku no haklekar sai katak sistema kontabilidade orsamentál nasaun nian ne’e fraku teb-tebes.

International Budget Partnership (IBP) nia relatóriu ba Open Budget Survey 2015 fó sai katak Timor-Leste falla atu aumenta maka’as nia esforsu ba transparénsia nian kona-ba fahe nia informasaun orsamentál ba nia sidadaun sira. Ne’e mak relatóriu ba dala lima hosi IBP, relatóriu ida ne’ebé independente tebes iha mundu, ne’ebé mai hosi survey ne’ebé komparativu duni kona-ba transparénsia orsamentál, ho partisipasaun sidadaun, no instituisaun monitorizasaun sira ne’ebé independente iha prosesu orsamentál. Kombinasaun hosi komponente sira ne’e mak sai tiha pillar importante ba sistema kontabilidade orsamentál nian.

Hosi avaliasaun ba nasaun 102, Survey 2015 nee hetan katak Timor-Leste seidauk hadi’ak natoon atu muda sai hosi kategoria médiu iha Índise Orsamentál ne’ebé Nakloke “Open Budget Index (OBI)”, ne’ebé uza kritériu sira ne’ebé internasionalmente koñesidu atu fó pontuasaun transparénsia nian ho eskalaun hosi 0-100. Nasaun ne’ebé hetan pontu 61 ba leten iha OBI mak bele konsidera nudár nasaun ne’ebé fornese informasaun ba públiku ho sufisiente.

Timor-Leste nia pontuasaun OBI nian iha 41, katak Governu nia informasaun orsamentál ba públiku limitadu tebes. Governu la fó informasaun ne’ebé sufisiente ba sidadaun sira atu nune’e sira bele komprende didi’ak orsamentu no mós atu halo Governu sai kontavel. Timor-Leste iha fatin kategoria médiu iha OBS 2010 no 2012 tanba Governu la publika Pre-Budget Statement (Envelope Fiskál no Orsamentu Sirkulár), Analiza Semestral ba Orsamentu (Mid-Year Review), no la iha inkonsistensia ba publikasaun Relatóriu Trimestral (In Year Report) no Matadalan Sidadania nian.

“Bainhira Governu laiha kontabilidade iha nia orsamentu rasik, entaun susar tebes ba povu Timor-Leste atu bele garante katak sira nia osan ne’e sei uza ba sira nia moris di’ak,” tenik Juvinal Dias, Peskizadór ba asuntu ekonomia no rekursu naturais iha La’o Hamutuk, ne’ebé hala’o peskiza ba Timor-Leste. “Governu loloos tenke publika relatóriu orsamentál trimestral no annual nian tuir tempu, loke partisipasaun públiku nian ba prosesu preparasaun orsamentál nian, no prosesu diskusaun orsamentál labele taka ba públiku, hanesan tinan rua ikus ne’e hala’o hosi Komisaun Eventual.”

Jerálmente, OBS 2015 ne’e hetan katak nasaun 98 hosi nasaun 102 ne’ebé hetan avaliasaun ne’e menus sistema ida ne’ebé adekuadu atu asegura katak osan povu nian ne’e uza tuir dalan ne’ebé efisiente no efikás. Nasaun 98 ne’e falla iha mínimu pillar kontabilidade nian ida hosi pillar tolu seluk (transparénsia, partisipasaun públiku, no fiskalizasaun ne’ebé forte); no nasaun 32 hosi nasaun 98 hirak ne’e monu iha pillar tolu ne’e tomak. Sistema kontabilidade orsamentál ne’ebé fraku tebes iha mundu tomak hatudu hela ameasa ba implementasaun akordu internasionál sira ne’ebé importante, hanesan Nasoins Unidas nia Meta Dezenvolvimentu Sustentável ne’ebé hein atu deside iha Konferénsia Klimátika iha Paris iha 2015.

Iha Pillar primeiru Transparénsia, iha nasaun 24 de’it mak lakon eskalaun ida hosi eskalaun hat ne’ebé iha. Sira nia pontuasaun ne’e liu 60 hosi 100 iha OBI, no nasaun hirak ne’e fó informasaun ne’ebé sufisiente ba nia sidadaun sira ne’ebé bele ajuda sira hodi tau matan ba Governu ne’ebé uza povu nia osan. Ne’e aviza mai ita katak, nasaun 78 seluk , inklui Timor-Leste, ne’ebé fó informasaun orsamentu ne’ebé insufisiente sai uma ba 68% populasaun mundu nian. Nasaun 17 hosi nasaun sira ne’e mak la fó informasaun natoon ka laiha duni informasaun orsamentál ba sira nia sidadaun.

Maski nune’e, estudu ne’e identifika katak transparénsia orsamentál ne’e jerálmente hetan mudansa – deskobrevimentu foun sira ne’e konsistente ho relatóriu anterior sira. Rata-rata pontuasaun OBI nian sa'e to 45. Iha duni progresu ne’ebé forte, partikulármente entre nasaun no rejiaun balu ne’ebé antes ne’e la transparente, inklui Repúblika Kyrgyz (ne’ebé nia OBI ne’e sa’e besik dala tolu), Tunisia (nia OBI efetivamente sa’e dala haat), no Áfrika Osidentál Française.

Bainhira ita junta tiha nasaun sira ne’ebé nia transparénsia fraku ne’e sai ida, ne’e hanesan hamenus oportunidade partisipasaun no tau matan povu nian. Ho pontu 60 ka menus iha parte survey ida ne’e, iha nasaun 95 hosi nasaun 102 mak falla atu fó oportunidade ba partisipasaun públiku nian. Tuir mai, survey mós hetan katak peskiza lejizlativa nian no kapasidade analitiku, no mós kualidade sistema garantia iha maioria órgaun auditoria nian ne’e fraku, hodi fó ameasa ba abilidade instituisaun tau matan sira atu bele efikás hodi asegura povu nia osan.

Timor-Leste nia pontuasaun 10 kona-ba oportunidade ne’ebé Governu fó ba partisipasaun públiku nian iha prosesu orsamentál nian. Ho hanoin atu haforsa Timor-Leste nia instituisaun fiskalizasaun formal sira, pontuasaun ba lejizlatura iha 45 no pontuasaun ba instituisaun supreme ba audit nian ne’e 83. Figura sira ne’e bele hetan mudansa di’ak liután bainhira Governu envolve partisipasaun povu nian bainhira prepara orsamentu estadu nian, Parlamentu tenke garante katak diskusaun no debates orsamentál ne’e sai nakloke liu, katak la uza ona Komisaun Eventual atu deside orsamentu estadu nian. Aleinde ne’e, Governu tenke publika relatóriu audit Tribunal das Contas nian kompletu ne’ebé inklui deklarasaun finanseiru sira ba públiku.

Bainhira ita kombina pillar tolu ne’e tomak, iha de’it nasaun hat hanesan Brazil, Norwegia, Áfrika du Súl no Estadus Unidus mak fó transparénsia orsamentál ne’ebé sufisiente, estabiliza oportunidade ne’ebé sufisiente ba partisipasaun públiku nian no iha instituisaun formal sira ne’ebé halo fiskalizasaun ne’ebé adekuadu.

Pelu kontráriu, survey ne’e hetan katak nasaun 32 mak la sufisiente iha pillar tomak kontabilidade nian. Númeru nee inklui nasaun lubuk ne’ebé konsistente hodi la fó ka laiha duni informasaun orsamentál nian, hanesan: Aljeria, Bolivia, Cambodia, Xina, Giné Equatorial, Fiji, Iraq, Myanmar, Qatar, no Saudi Arabia.

“Públiku presiza asesu ba informasaun orsamentál no oportunidade atu partisipa iha prosesu orsamentál nian. Fiskalizasaun hosi lejizlatura sira no instituisaun auditoria sira ne’ebé la’o hamutuk ne’e sei kontribui ba uza osan povu nian sai kontavel liu,” tenik Warren Krafchik, Diretór Ezekutivu International Budget Partnership. “Haburas órgaun evidénsia nian indika ‘check and balance’ fó rezultadu di’ak ba povu, espesialmente sira ne’ebé kiak ka vulneravel tebes.”

Maski nune’e, progresu substansial bele atinje lalais. Porezemplu, survey hetan katak maioria nasaun sira ne’ebé menus transparente ne’e loloos prodús sira nia informasaun orsamentál ne’ebé signifikante ba sira nia uzu internal; rezultadu boot bele hetan liu hosi kustu ki’ik ida liu hosi publika dokumentu sira ne’e iha Governu nia website.

Meius no mekanizmu atu estabelese pillar kontabilidade orsamentál hirak ne’e loloos iha liman hela. Maibé ikus mai, atu promove transparénsia, partisipasaun no fiskalizasaun ne’e besik sempre fila ba kestaun vontade polítika.

“Timor-Leste nia progresu ne’ebé fraku ne’e fó preokupasaun boot ba ita nia sistema orsamentál nasionál nian atu sai transparente no kontavel liu,’ hateten Juvinal Dias. “Governu tenke foti pasu sira tuir mai atu bele halo mudansa ida ne’ebé rápidu liu hanesan publika informasaun orsamentál nian ba públiku, loke oportunidade ba partisipasaun povu nian iha prosesu halo orsamentu estadu no haforsa fiskalizasaun orsamentál nian hosi órgaun lejizladór no auditoria nian”.

Ita boot bele download verzaun PDF artigu ida ne'e iha Ingles ka Tetum, ka relatoriu global ka Timor-Leste husi Open Budget Survey tinan 2015 iha Ingles.

TL falls short on budget transparency index

Liga ba artigu ida ne'e iha lingua Tetum

Timor-Leste falls short on global budget transparency index—the government continues to deny citizens the information needed to understand and influence the use of public money

Major independent global report finds that Timor-Leste continues to make only limited information available to the public and reveals that overall country budget accountability systems are deficient 

Timor-Leste failed to increase the amount of national budget information it provides to citizens enough to be considered sufficiently transparent, according to the International Budget Partnership’s Open Budget Survey 2015. The report, the fifth of its kind, is the world’s only independent, comparative survey of budget transparency, citizen participation, and independent oversight institutions in the budgeting process. Combined these components are the main pillars of accountable budget systems.

Assessing 102 countries around the world, the 2015 Survey finds that Timor-Leste has yet to improve enough to move out of the middle category on the Open Budget Index, or OBI, which uses internationally recognized criteria to give each country a transparency score on a 100-point scale. For a country to be found to be providing the public with sufficient information, it needs to score above 60 on the OBI.

Timor-Leste’s OBI score of 41 means that the government makes limited budget information publicly available, it does not provide citizens with sufficient information to fully understand the budget and hold the government to account. Timor-Leste has placed in the middle category in the 2010 and 2012 rounds of the Open Budget Survey because the government is not publishing Pre-Budget Statements (Fiscal Envelope and Circular Budget) or Quarterly Budget Analysis (Mid-Year Review), and there have been inconsistencies in the publication of the Quarterly Reports (In Year Report) and the Citizen Budget.

“When the Government lacks accountability in its budget, it is very difficult for the people of Timor-Leste to be able to guarantee that their money will be used to improve their lives,” said Juvinal Dias, Researcher on Economy and Natural Resources with La’o Hamutuk, which conducted the research for Timor-Leste. “The Government should publish quarterly and annual budget reports on time, and open the budget preparation process for public participation – the discussion process for the budget should not be closed to the public, as the Ad-Hoc Committee has done for the last two years.”

Overall, the Open Budget Survey 2015 finds that 98 of 102 countries surveyed lack adequate systems for ensuring that public funds are used efficiently and effectively. The 98 countries fall short on at least one of the pillars of accountability (transparency, public participation, and strength of oversight); 32 of these fall short on all three. The widespread lack of strong budget accountability systems poses a threat to the implementation of critical international agreements, such as the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals and the international agreement that is expected at the 2015 Paris Climate Conference.

On the first pillar of transparency, a mere 24 countries—less than one in four— score over 60 out of 100 on the OBI and thus provide citizens with sufficient information to enable them to monitor the government’s use of public money. Alarmingly, the remaining 78 countries, including Timor-Leste, that provide insufficient budget information are home to 68% of the world’s population. Seventeen of these countries provide scant or no budget information to their citizens.

However, the study finds that budget transparency is generally improving—a finding consistent with previous reports. The average OBI score has increased to 45. Progress was particularly robust among some countries and regions that were previously not as transparent, including the Kyrgyz Republic (its OBI nearly tripled), Tunisia (its OBI effectively quadrupled), and Francophone West Africa.

Compounding the widespread lack of transparency that nonetheless remains is a similar lack of opportunities for public participation and oversight. With scores of 60 or less on this part of the survey, 95 of 102 countries fall short in providing opportunities for public participation. Further, the survey finds that legislative research and analytic capacity, as well as quality assurance systems in most national audit bodies, are lacking, severely compromising the ability of oversight institutions to be effective guardians of the public purse.

Timor-Leste scored 10 on the opportunities the government provides for public participation in budget processes. With regard to the strength of Timor-Leste’s formal oversight institutions, the score for the legislature was 45 and the score for the supreme audit institution was 83. These could be improved if the government encouraged the public participation in the preparation of the budget, if Parliament guarantees that budget discussions and debates are more open, and if the Eventual Commission can no longer make the final decision on the budget. In addition, the Government must publish complete audit reports for the Court of Accounts, including financial declarations to the public.

Combining all three pillars, only four countries, Brazil, Norway, South Africa, and the United States, provide sufficient budget transparency, establish sufficient opportunities for public participation, and have adequate formal oversight institutions.

In contrast, the survey finds that 32 countries are insufficient on all three pillars of accountability. These include a number of countries that have consistently provided scant or no budget information at all: Algeria, Bolivia, Cambodia, China, Equatorial Guinea, Fiji, Iraq, Myanmar, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia.

“The public needs access to budget information and opportunities to participate throughout the budget process. Coupled with oversight by legislatures and audit institutions this contributes to a more accountable use of public money,” said Warren Krafchik, Executive Director of the International Budget Partnership. “A growing body of evidence indicates such budgetary checks and balances yield better outcomes for people, especially those who are poor or vulnerable.”

However, substantial progress can be achieved quickly. For instance, the survey finds that most of the least transparent countries actually produce significant budget information for their internal use; major gains could be made at little cost by just posting these documents on the government website.

The means and mechanisms to establish these budget accountability pillars are readily at hand. Ultimately, advancing transparency, participation, and oversight almost always comes down to a question of political will.

“Timor-Leste’s lack of progress in making our national budget systems more transparent and accountable is of great concern,” said Juvinal Dias. “The government should take the following steps toward rapid improvement: make budget information available to the public; make opportunities available for public participation in the budget process; and strengthen fiscal oversight by the legislator and auditor.”

Download a printable PDF version of this article in English or Tetum, or the global or Timor-Leste-specific reports from the 2015 Open Budget Survey in English.

Come Discuss Agriculture in Timor-Leste's economy

Invitation to a Public Meeting and Discussion

The role of agriculture sector in the economic development of Timor-Leste

Speakers

• Sr. Estanislau A. da Silva, Minister of State and Coordinator of Economic Affairs and Minister of Agriculture and Fisheries
• Guteriano Neves, Researcher at the Research and Analysis Department, Presidential office
• Maxi Tahu, La’o Hamutuk

Date: 7 August 2015

Time: 09.00 to 12.30

Venue: Centro João Paulo II, Comoro - Dili

Contact La’o Hamutuk on 3321040; 77237176 or 77336307 ka  if you need more information

Konvite ba Enkontru Publiku no Diskusaun

Setor Agrikultura nia papel iha dezenvolvimentu ekonomia Timor-Leste nian

Orador sira

• Ministro Estadu Koordenador Asuntu Ekonomia no Ministru Agrikultura no Peska, Sr. Estanislau A. da Silva
• Guteriano Neves, Peskizador Departementu Peskiza no Analiza Presidencia da Republika
• Maxi Tahu, La’o Hamutuk.

Loron: 7 Agostu 2015

Horas: 09.00 - 12.30

Fatin: Centru Joao Paulo II, Comoro – Dili

Se presiza informasaun liu tan bele kontaktu La’o Hamutuk iha 3321040; 77237176 ka 77336307

Riches beyond imagination

Last week, Timor-Leste’s Ministry of Finance proudly proclaimed that “Timor-Leste Takes 87th Place Among Richest Countries in the World.” The announcement was based on a recent article in Global Finance Magazine (also PDF) which used International Monetary Fund (IMF) projections to compare 184 nations. It found that Timor-Leste’s 2013 economy, adjusted for population and local prices, was larger than more than half of the world’s countries.

Unfortunately, the article is outdated and incorrect, as it relied on data published more than two years ago. According to the latest IMF World Economic Outlook published in April 2015, Timor-Leste ranked 122nd (not 87th) in the world in 2013, and is expected to fall six more places in 2014. In the rosy picture relayed by the Ministry of Finance, Timor-Leste is richer than China, Indonesia, Cabo Verde and Fiji. However, current IMF data shows that we are poorer than all of these, although our economy is still proportionally larger than Guinea-Bissau and several ASEAN countries.

We all wish that Timor-Leste’s people were less poor, but wishing doesn’t make it so. We encourage policy-makers to base their decisions on evidence, and not to believe their own public relations. It will take smart thinking and hard work to bring Timor-Leste out of poverty.

Global Finance based its rankings on Gross Domestic Product per capita (GDP pc) adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity (PPP). This number represents the total value of all goods produced and services provided in a given country in a year, divided by the population. In order to compare with other countries, the figure is adjusted for cost of living and currency exchange rates. For example, if goods are cheaper in Timor-Leste than in most countries, adjusting for purchasing power would increase our GDP pc (PPP). The magazine’s article explains this in more detail.

For 2013, Global Finance said that Timor-Leste’s GDP pc (PPP) was $10,784, although it admits that everything after 2009 is an estimate. However, the newer IMF report (which uses estimates after 2011) says it was $5,581. We believe that the more recent estimate is lower because we now have better data and estimates of purchasing power parity.

La’o Hamutuk is concerned that GDP does not reflect the lives of our communities, and we agree with Global Finance that “It is important to notice that GDP is not a perfect measure to describe the well-being and quality of life of populations… In fact, GDP is often considered imperfect even to measure overall economic strength.” By counting dollars instead of people, this indicator shows the wealth enjoyed by the more affluent part of the population, and ignores those who have no money. In addition, about 80% of Timor-Leste’s GDP comes from oil and gas, which employs hardly any people and whose money all goes to the state (which saves part of it while spending some on projects and programs). Furthermore, inflation and prices in Timor-Leste are volatile and different from our neighbors, and therefore adjustments for Purchasing Power Parity may not be accurate.  Global Finance points out that “PPP estimates for developing countries are often rough approximations.”

The Ministry and the magazine based their articles on the IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) published in April 2013, which acknowledged that data after 2009 were estimates. However, the IMF updates these figures annually. During the last two years, government and international agencies have improved their understanding of Timor-Leste’s economy, as shown in reports from the Directorate-General of Statistics, the IMF and others. The April 2015 WEO tells a different story, and we don’t understand why the Ministry didn’t use the most recent information available.

In visual terms, the graph at right shows how Timor-Leste’s rank compared with other countries has changed over time, representing the percentage of countries each year which had a lower GDP per capita PPP than Timor-Leste. The outdated Ministry data are the blue line, and the newer IMF figures are in red. Solid lines are based on actual data, while dashed lines are projections.

In the more recent information, we can see a disturbing trend – Timor-Leste’s ranking has been dropping since 2011 and is expected to continue to fall. This is not surprising -- Timor-Leste’s oil income is declining, while the world has recovered from the 2008-2009 global economic crisis.

Last June, Timor-Leste’s Directorate-General for Statistics (DGS) published new GDP data in its report on National Accounts 2000-2013, but it came out too late to be included in the April 2015 IMF report. DGS found that Timor-Leste’s GDP per capita dropped 16.8% from 2012 to 2013, without adjusting for purchasing power. This trend, which is likely to get worse as oil and gas reserves are depleted and petroleum prices stay low, means that the April 2015 IMF WEO probably overestimates the country’s 2013 GDP, making the Ministry of Finance and Global Finance articles even more distant from reality.

The Ministry was lucky (or persistent) to find an article describing Timor-Leste’s economy in a positive light. The internet has many tabulations like http://www.worldsrichestcountries.com/, and Timor-Leste is always far down the list. Although a few people may take perverse pride in the fact that some countries’ economies are even poorer than ours, the citizens of the Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste – especially impoverished rural residents whose lives are not reflected in these statistics – deserve better.

Bobby Boye's damage to Timor-Leste

Last April, Nigerian-American Bobby Boye admitted to a U.S. court that he defrauded Timor-Leste of $3.5 million dollars, and he will be sentenced in October.  As part of his plea bargain, Boye agreed to to “make full restitution [to Timor-Leste] for all losses resulting from the offense of conviction or from the scheme, conspiracy, or pattern of criminal activity underlying the offense.”  La'o Hamutuk has published a detailed history of Boye's crime and record at http://www.laohamutuk.org/econ/corruption/Boye/14BoyeCase.htm. We just wrote to the prosecutors, estimating what Boye's scheme cost Timor-Leste, and the following is an abridged version of our letter.

15 July 2015

To: Shirley Uchenna Emehelu and Barbara Ward
Office of the U.S. Attorney, New Jersey, USA

As we wrote to the U.S. Attorney nearly one year ago, La’o Hamutuk is a Timor-Leste civil society organization which has followed the activities of Bobby Boye since 2010. After his arrest, La’o Hamutuk published Boye’s long history of  deceit, scams, crimes and occasional sanctions -- forgery, false medical leave claims, disqualification from stock exchange trading, lying on employment applications, fraudulent bankruptcy and  criminal conviction for embezzlement. We believe that the Court should understand the full scope of his conspiracy, which extends far beyond the wire transfers to his non-existent company.

Congratulations on getting Bobby Boye to admit that he defrauded Timor-Leste and to agree to “make full restitution [to Timor-Leste] for all losses resulting from the offense of conviction or from the scheme, conspiracy, or pattern of criminal activity underlying the offense.” We encourage you to share evidence so that Timor-Leste and Norwegian authorities can appropriately enforce their laws, exposing Boye’s conspiracy and making it more difficult for a future fraudster to emulate his misdeeds.

Although the amount of money that Boye admitted that he wired totals $3,510,000, the cost of his scheme to Timor-Leste is many times larger -- our estimate is $176,080,000. We hope that you will impose a sentence which provides restitution to the people of Timor-Leste, more than half of whom live below the poverty line. Timor-Leste is one of the poorest and most oil-export-dependent countries on earth, and our petroleum reserves will soon be exhausted. The losses from Boye’s crimes further cripple inadequate education, health care and other basic services.

Boye laid the foundation for his fraud over several years, obtaining his position through lies and carefully plotting to gain officials' confidence, Even today, Timor-Leste continues to pay for his crimes.

Boye prompted Timor-Leste to make dubious tax assessments against international oil companies, knowing that the companies would pay under protest before they appealed. He then boasted that he had brought in hundreds of millions of dollars in new revenues and promised billions more, thereby “proving” his skills and the incompetence of his predecessors, and earning the unquestioning trust of Timor-Leste officials. The scheme also reinforced his recommendation for Timor-Leste to tighten its tax regulations, opening the way for the fraudulent contracts and wire transfers resulting from his conspiracy.

The companies' appeals of these tax assessments are pending arbitration rulings in Singapore, and Timor-Leste may lose most or all of them. In addition to having to return the payments, Timor-Leste could be ordered to pay interest, legal costs and perhaps penalties. Timor-Leste has also spent millions of dollars to hire attorneys in an effort to limit the damage from Boye’s actions.

Boye’s scheme has inflicted or will inflict financial losses in excess of one hundred and seventy million dollars, as estimated in this table.

Note 4: Although we do not know the exact amount assessed, ConocoPhillips' recent SEC Report says:

“ConocoPhillips served a Notice of Arbitration on the Timor-Leste Minister of Finance in October 2012 for outstanding disputes related to a series of tax assessments. As of March 31, 2015, ConocoPhillips has paid, under protest, tax assessments totaling approximately $237 million, which are primarily recorded in the “Investments and long-term receivables” line on our consolidated balance sheet. The arbitration hearing was conducted in Singapore in June 2014 under the United Nations Commission on International Trade Laws (UNCITRAL) arbitration rules, pursuant to the terms of the Tax Stability Agreement with the Timor-Leste government. Post-hearing briefs from both parties were filed in August 2014. We are now awaiting the Tribunal’s decision. Future impacts on our business are not known at this time.”

ConocoPhillips owns 57% of the Bayu-Undan joint venture, so other partners’ assessments are about $179 million more. Boye also assessed 

back taxes from other companies, including $25 million paid under protest by Woodside Australian Energy in relation to a different project.

Bobby Boye probably does not have sufficient assets to make restitution for all of these losses. However, he should not be allowed to replicate his 2004 scam, when he concealed $250,000 in stolen money while convincing a Bankruptcy Court to release him from $100,000 in personal debts. Timor-Leste’s losses are 700 times greater than Boye’s previous embezzlement, and its people will suffer far more from non-restitution than the shareholders of the company he stole from a decade ago.

In addition to these financial losses, Boye’s crimes caused incalculable damage to the rule of law in Timor-Leste. Last October, Timorese leaders blamed the impending loss of Boye-initiated tax cases on Portuguese prosecutors and judges in Dili District court. A Parliamentary resolution used “the set of legal proceedings, under which the contractors on oil exploration Bayu-Undan sued the State in more than 50 complex processes related with international taxation matters and those procedures has been brought before the national court as well” to validate then-Prime Minister Xanana Gusmão’s breach of separation of powers by illegally firing all non-Timorese judges and prosecutors, undermining the Constitution of this young democracy.

Another inestimable loss resulting from Boye’s scheme is the time and attention it took from many high-level Timorese officials, including the Prime Minister, Minister of Finance, Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources, and Minister of State for the Council of Ministers. This reduced their credibility and their effectiveness to carry out other responsibilities. It also damaged public confidence in and efficacy of revenue collection, especially from the oil and gas activities which provide more than 90% of the nation’s income.

In addition, this conspiracy has damaged Timor-Leste’s reputation in the international investment community, making it more difficult to attract the businesses and capital needed to develop the country. At the same time, Timor-Leste has been marked as a possible easy target for scammers and thieves who want to steal part of the country’s $17 billion Sovereign Wealth Fund.

We do not know who else was complicit in Boye’s crimes. The only person who has been named so far is Tiago Guerra, a Portuguese consultant and businessman who lived next to Boye in Dili. Last October, Guerra was arrested for money-laundering, imprisoned for six months without charges, and is still barred from leaving the country. However, Guerra has not yet been tried, while other co-conspirators enjoy impunity and may continue to steal from the country’s citizens.

Note 7, added 23 July: After this letter was delivered, we realized that the preceding paragraph is misleading. La'o Hamutuk did not intend to write that Tiago Guerra conspired with Bobby Boye, or that Guerra is guilty of criminal activity. Although Guerra was arrested and imprisoned for nearly nine months and is still barred from leaving Timor-Leste, no formal legal charges have been filed against him. Guerra maintains his innocence and has not had a chance to defend himself in court. Like everyone else, he should be presumed innocent until proven guilty. In a democratic nation under rule of law, “suspicion” that someone is involved in money-laundering does not justify violating their rights. La'o Hamutuk is not aware of any evidence which links Tiago Guerra with Bobby Boye’s crimes, and we did not mean to imply that the two were co-conspirators.
     However, we wonder if the state's pursuit of Guerra without proper legal process diverts attention from others who were complicit in Boye’s crimes and may still be in positions to steal from the country's citizens. On 20 July, Dili District Court sentenced the former Minister of Education to seven years in prison in a separate corruption case, reminding everyone that some Timorese public officials abuse public property for private gain. We continue to encourage a thorough investigation to find out who was involved with Boye's conspiracy.

Judge Wolfson’s recent acceptance of your request to delay sentencing until October allows time to develop a more complete and accurate accounting of “all losses resulting from the offense of conviction or from the scheme, conspiracy, or pattern of criminal activity underlying [Boye’s] offense,” for which he has agreed to “make full restitution.” We hope that you will make a determined, effective effort to convince the judge to implement that part of the plea agreement.

Thank you very much for your attention to this letter and to this case.

Sincerely,

Juvinal Dias             Adilson da Costa Junior          Charles Scheiner

Researchers at La’o Hamutuk