Akontesimentu Ekonomia Global fó impaktu boot ba Timor-Leste

Bele download PDF or link to English version.  Atualiza iha loron 14 no 31 Marsu; hare iha kraik.

Hahú husi 2015, Timor-Leste nia reseita estadu iha dependénsia ba rendimentu husi investimentu osan ne’ebé rai iha Fundu Petrolíferu, la’ós ona osan husi royalties no taxa husi ekstrasaun no esportasaun mina no gás.

Haree ba kondisaun dependénsia ba investimentu ne’e, La’o Hamutuk deside atu buka hatene oinsá mudansa ekonomia no merkadu finanseiru global sei afeta ba kapasidade no estabilidade finanseira husi governu Timor-Leste nia operasaun sira. Maske ita labele influénsia eventu ida ne’e, ita presiza komprende kona-ba eventu sira ne’e.

Artigu ne’e hanesan analiza prelimináriu kona-ba oinsá mudansa sira ne’ebé foin mosu lalais ne’e – husi 12 Fevreiru too 12 Marsu – fó impaktu ba ita nia Fundu Petrolíferu (FP).

Presu ekidade tun

Merkadu ekidade (asoens / stocks) iha Estadus Unidus no nasaun sira seluk tun kuaze 26% durante loron 30 ikus ne’e. Fundu Petrolíferu iha ekidade ho valór kuaze biliaun $6.6 iha fin 2019.  Tanba ne’e, ita lakon kuaze biliaun $1.7 valór merkadu husi ita nia asoens. Maibé, merkadu sempre iha flutuasaun (tun-sa’e), no ita la presiza fa’an ita nia asoens sira agora. Se situasaun iha merkadu sai di’ak fali (hanesan akontese iha 2019), ita sei lakon osan ki’ik liu, maibé se merkadu kontinua tun (hanesan akontese iha 2008), ita sei lakon osan barak liu tan.

Timor-Leste nia Fundu Petrolíferu mak úniku iha mundu ne’ebé la lakon osan durante krize ekonómiku global iha 2008, tanba ita la investe iha asoens. (Nasaun Noruega lakon kuaze biliaun $90.) Iha 2010, bainhira halo revizaun ba lei Fundu Petrolíferu hodi bele uza Fundu ne’e barak liu ba sosa asoens, La’o Hamutuk husu “Oinsá Governu Timor-Leste bele responde ba preokupasaun publiku no politikus nain sira seluk wainhira ita nia fundu nia kapital sei lakon tamba deit labele kontrola merkadu, ka tamba desizaun ida be ladiak husi jestor eksternal ida? Oinsa ita bele asegura katak ita sei la sosa bainhira presu sae no fan bainhira nia presu tun?”

Mezmu ita la fa’an ita nia asoens, balansu iha FP nafatin uza atu kalkula Rendimentu Sustentável Estimativa (RSE) ne’ebé determina osan montante hira mak bele foti ho sustentável husi Fundu Petrolíferu. Redusaun biliaun $1.7 iha balansu FP sei hamenus RSE kuaze tokon $51 – kuaze dala-rua despeza estadu nian ba agrikultura kada tinan.

Taxa funan (taxa de juros) tun

Fundu Petrolíferu barak liu mak investe iha títulu husi governu sira, inklui biliaun $7.9 (iha fin 2019) iha títulu ne’ebé fó sai husi Tezouru Estadu Unidus nian, no biliaun $1.6 iha nasaun seluk. Taxa rendimentu ba médiu-prazu iha títulu Estadu Unidus nian tun too menus husi metade nivel uluk nian. Tinan kotuk, Fundu Petrolíferu hetan tokon $420 iha funan no dividendu,3 no ida ne’e bele tun too tokon $200 se bainhira taxa hirak ne’e kontinua hanesan agora ne’e. Se sira ne’e tun ba nafatin, Timor-Leste sei simu funan no dividendu ki’ik liu tan.

Presu mina tun

Maski esportasaun mina no gás la sai ona hanesan Timor-Leste nia fonte rendimentu prinsipál (no karik sei para total iha tinan tolu nia laran), Fundu ida ne’e nafatin sei simu reseita balu husi esportasaun mina no gás. Tinan kotuk, Ministériu Finansa projeta katak reseita husi mina no gás iha 2020 sei too tokon $595, bazeia ba espetasaun presu mina Brent nian, $62 kada barríl. Maibé, iha 13 Marsu presu mina mak $33 kada barríl. Se presu estabiliza nafatin iha maizumenus $35, reseita petróleu iha 2020 sei la too metade husi Ministériu nia projesaun, no RSE sei tun kuaze tokon $12. Se presu tun liu tan, nia impaktu sei aat liu tan.

Presu mina ne’ebé ki’ik, sei limita dezenvolvimentu petróleu iha mundu tomak, inklui Timor-Leste. Se presu kontinua ki’ik nafatin, projetu sira se fó lukru menus ba kompañia sira, no Bayu-Undan bele para produsaun lalais liu duké 2022, tuir saida mak sira planu ona. (Ida ne’e akontese ona ba Kitan iha 2015).

Kompañia no investór sira sei avalia fila fali valor ekonomia husi kada projetu iha futuru – inklui esplorasaun iha rai maran (onshore), Buffalo, Chuditch, Greater Sunrise no Tasi Mane – iha posibilidade atu atraza ka kansela. Avizu atu oferese fatin ba halo projetu (bidding round) ne’ebé ANPM daudaun ne’e halo hela sei hetan interese menus liu, tanba kompañia sira lakohi atu hahú ka investe iha projetu foun bainhira sira laiha serteza katak sira sei hetan lukru. 

Konkluzaun

Se presu no taxa funan nian ne’ebé diskute iha leten la sai aat liu (ka di’ak liu) durante tinan ida ne’e nia laran, too tinan 2020 nia rohan Timor-Leste nia investimentu Fundu Petrolíferu sei lakon loloos (net loss) kuaze biliaun $1.5. Ida ne’e biliaun rua menus manán tokon $640 ne’ebé Ministériu Finansa estimatiza iha proposta orsamentu 2020 nian. Aleinde ne’e, royalty no taxa husi mina no gás sei ki’ik liu tokon $300 husi saida mak Governu projeta ona ‘ho prudente.’ Lakon hirak ne’e bele kontinua iha tinan hirak tuir mai.

Tinan kotuk, La’o Hamutuk estimatiza katak Fundu Petrolíferu bele mamuk iha 2028, mezmu se ita la uza Fundu ne’e hodi selu ba kustu kapitál projetu Tasi Mane nian. Se tendénsia global ne’e mantén nafatin, FP sei mamuk lalais liu tan tinan balu.

Governu VIII sesante hakarak foti tokon $250 husi Fundu Petrolíferu tanba funsionamentu ba mákina estadu labele kontinua se laiha osan. Hahú iha Janeiru (hanesan iha 2018), despeza estadu ne’ebé la’o neineik hafraku ekonomia iha territóriu Timor-Leste, halo ema kiak sira sai kiak liu tan. Redusaun maka’as atividade ekonomia hatudu katak populasaun sira depende maka’as ba estadu nia despeza husi Fundu Petrolíferu – no hatudu frakeza boot husi ita nia ekonomia.

Ameasa ne’ebé oras ne’e mosu ba Fundu ne’e nia ezisténsia médiu-prazu la’ós buat foun ida, no bele sai aat liu tan tanba mudansa klimátika no redusaun iha balansu Fundu nian. Ameasa hirak ne’e fó hanoin fali mai ita katak Timor-Leste iha urjénsia tebes atu diversifika nia ekonomia ne’ebé la’ós petróleu ka investimentu. Ita liu ona tempu ita tenke investe iha ita nia labarik sira nia saúde no edukasaun, ho nune’e ita nia produtividade, sustentabilidade no ekonomia ne’ebé ekitável – agrikultura, indústria ki’ik no eko-turizmu – bele hakbiit ita nia povu sira atu bele moris ho prospero. Ida ne’e mak dalan úniku atu atinje Fundu Petrolíferu nia objetivu atu benefisia jerasaun sira tuir mai.

Glosáriu:

• Royalty: rendimentu ne’ebé estadu hetan husi produsaun mina no gas iha tasi okos ka rai maran.
• Ekidade: asoens (stocks) ne’ebé investe iha kompañia sira, fa’an iha merkadu internasionál
• Títulu: Hanesan instrumentu ba rendimentu fiksa ne’ebé reprezenta fó empréstimu ruma, espesialmente ba Governu E.U. no nasaun sira seluk
• Dividendu: distribuisaun ne’ebé rekompensa husi lukru balu ne’ebé kompañia na’in hetan no selu balu ba na’in husi asoens. 
• Kustu Kapitál: despeza ne’ebé tenke halo atu harii projetu ida

Atualiza 14 Marsu 2020

Ami hakerek artigu iha leten iha loron 13 Marsu 2020, bazeia ba presu no taxa sira bainhira oras negósiu remata iha loron Kinta, 12 Marsu. Loron ida tuir mai, númeru tolu ne’ebé ita uza atu halo projesaun sira hadi’ak uitoan, no montante ne’ebé Fundu Petrolíferu sei lakon agora mak biliaun $1.8, menus husi lakon biliaun $2.3 ne’ebé ami kalkula horiseik. Númeru sira ne’e sei muda loron-loron, no bele sai di’ak liu ka aat. Ita-boot bele hetan dadus husi:

• S&P 500 índise ba merkadu ekidade (2,711 iha 13 Marsu): https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/spx/charts
• Taxa rendimentu husi títulu iha Tezouru Estadus Unidus (0.74% iha 13 Marsu): https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield
• Presu spot mina Brent ($34.69 iha 13 Marsu): https://www.exchangerates.org.uk/commodities/live-oil-prices/BRT-USD.html

Atualiza 31 Marsu 2020

Trimestre ikus mak monu iha fulan ida ne’e nia rohan, situasaun merkadu asoens iha Estadus Unidus aat liu dezde 2008. Situasaun iha Fundu Petrolíferu hetan aat liu iha 23 Marsu nia laran, maibé hafoin di’ak uitoan iha fulan ne’e nia rohan, to’o hanesan ho nivel ida ne’ebé artigu ida ne’e orijinálmente hakerek. Se bainhira situasaun ne’e nafatin la iha mudansa durante periodu 2020, balansu Fundu iha tinan ikus sei iha kuaze biliaun $1.9 menus liu kompara ho saida mak espekta iha inísiu tinan ida ne’e. (Artigu orijinál uza 12 Fevereiru hanesan referénsia; hahú husi pontu inísiu ne’e lakon ona rendimentu kuaze biliaun $2.1.)

Relatóriu mensal BCTL iha fulan Fevreiru hatudu balansu Fundu ne’ebé tuun ba tokon $344 durante fulan Fevreiru. Maske relatóriu fulan Marsu nian seidauk hasai, La’o Hamutuk estimatiza katak ida ne’e sei tuun ba tokon $500.

Ba Timor-Leste, bainhira folin mina ne’ebé kontinua tuun sei sai preokupasaun boot liu tan, no peritu sira hanoin katak ida ne’e bele tun to’o menus $20/barríl. Reseita husi kampu Bayu-Undan durante 2021-2023 sei menus husi montante tokon $260 hanesan ne’ebé sira antisipa ona. Ba tempu naruk, projetu petróleu ne’ebé iha planu hahú tiha ona – inklui Buffalo, atividade iha rai laran, Chuditch no Greater Sunrise – sei labele hetan lukru sufisiente atu justifika sira nia kapitál investimentu, no sei la kontinua atu dezenvolve; atu hanesan mós ho projetu sira iha mundu tomak ne’ebé kanseladu.

Atualiza 1 Maiu 2020

Durante fulan Abril, merkadu asoens iha Estadus Unidus sa’e maka’as liu kompara ho fulan sira seluk durante tinan 33 nia laran, ne’ebé konsege rekupera fila fali maizumenus 60% husi lakon sira ne’ebé akontese iha médiu Fevereiru too iha semana datolu Marsu. Tanba impaktu ekonomia husi surtu sei kleur atu remata, analista sira preokupa katak rekuperasaun ne’e sei la kontinua.

Mina nia folin no taxa funan iha títulu Estadu Unidus tuun uitoan durante Abril. Se situasaun hanesan iha 30 Abril kontinua nafatin too tinan 2020 nia rohan, balansu Fundu Petrolíferu ne’e nian iha tinan nia rohan sei menus liu maizumenus biliaun $1.25 husi espetasaun iha inísiu tinan ida ne’e.

Balansu Fundu Petrolíferu iha fin Marsu mak biliaun $17.03, tuun tokon $476 durante fulan Marsu, no tokon $663 ki’ik liu kompara ho balansu iha inísiu 2020. Laiha levantamentu osan iha fulan Marsu. Embora balansu ba fulan Abril sa’e (dadus seidauk disponivel), manán hirak ne’e sei limita fali ho levantamentu tokon $250 atu finansia Fundu Espesiál Covid-19 no funsionamentu regular governu nian.

Maske situasaun merkadu asoens rekupera fali husi pontu ida ki’ik liu, ida ne’e nafatin sei tuun-sa’e no bele tuun liu tan, tanba surtu Covid-19 ne’e sei kontinua ba fulan barak tan.

Ba Timor-Leste, mina nia folin ne’ebé kontinua tuun ho la serteza sai preokupasaun boot ba oin, no peritu barak espekta mós katak folin mina kontinua no bele ki’ik liu $20/barrel ba fulan ka tinan balu. Rendimentu ne’ebé sei mai husi Bayu-Undan iha 2021-2023 sei la too tokon $260 ne’ebé projeta ona. Ba tempu naruk, projetu petroleum ne’ebé iha ona planu – inklui Buffalo, rai leten, Chuditch no Greater Sunrise – dalaruma sei la fó lukru nato’on atu justifika investimentu kapitál no bele la realiza; projetu sira hanesan ne’e barak iha mundu tomak mak kansela ona. Fundu Petrolíferu tokon $650 ne’ebé fó empresta ba TimorGap atu bele sosa asoens iha kampu Greater Sunrise nian, ne’ebé nafatin tama iha konta balansu, dalaruma sei la selu fila fali.

Aleinde ne’e, nasaun barak mak prolonga ka adia sira nia avizu atu oferese fatin ba esplorasaun (bidding round), maski ANPM nafatin iha esperansa no atu hetan aplikasaun molok fulan Outubru.

Balansu iha Fundu Petrolíferu sei tuun liu tan iha 2020 – tanba retornu negativu investimentu nian no levantamentu estraordináriu hodi responde ba surtu Covid-19 – no dalaruma sei laiha tan rendimentu petrolíferu hodi aumenta fila fali ba Fundu Petrolíferu. Oinsá Timor-Leste sei finansia nia governu hafoin buat hotu fila fali ba “normal”?

Atualiza 1 Junu 2020

Global economic developments hit Timor-Leste hard

Download English PDF of this article ka verzaun Tetum husi iha ne'e

See updates through 1 June below, with current graphs.

Since 2015, Timor-Leste’s state revenues have depended on income earned from investing the money saved in the Petroleum Fund, rather than on royalties and taxes from extracting and exporting oil and gas.

In this investment-dependent condition, La’o Hamutuk decided to look into how global economic and financial market changes will affect the financial capacity and stability of Timor-Leste’s government operations. Although we cannot influence these events, we need to understand them.

This article is a preliminary analysis of how recent changes – from 12 February to 12 March 2020 – are impacting our Petroleum Fund (PF).

Falling equity prices

Equity (stock) markets in the U.S. and other countries dropped about 26% during the last 30 days. The PF owned about $6.6 billion in equities at the end of 2019. Therefore, we have lost about $1.7 billion in the market value of our stocks. However, the market is very volatile, and we do not need to sell our stocks right now. If the market bounces back (as it did in 2019), we will lose less money, but if it continues to fall (as it did in 2008), we could lose a lot more.

Timor-Leste’s Petroleum Fund was the only one in the world which didn’t lose money during the 2008 global economic crisis, because we were not invested in stocks. (Norway lost about $90 billion.) In 2010, when the Petroleum Fund Law was being revised to allow more of the Fund to be used to buy stocks, La’o Hamutuk asked "How will Timor-Leste’s Government respond to opposition and public concern when the principal of the Petroleum Fund loses value due to market forces outside their control, or because of a poor decision by an external manager? How can we make sure that we don’t buy when prices are high and sell when they are low?"

Even if we don’t sell the stocks, the balance in the PF is used to calculate the Estimated Sustainable Income (ESI) guideline for how much can be withdrawn sustainably from the Petroleum Fund. A fall of $1.7 billion in the Fund’s balance reduces ESI by $51 million – about twice as much as the State spends on agriculture every year.

Falling interest rates

Most of the Petroleum Fund is invested in government bonds, including $7.9 billion (as of the end of 2019) in those issued by the United States Treasury, and $1.6 billion in other countries.  Yield rates of medium-term U.S. bonds have dropped to less than half of their previous levels. Last year, the Petroleum Fund received $420 million in interest and dividends, and this could drop to $200 million if rates stay where they are.  If they fall further, Timor-Leste will receive even less in interest and dividends.

Falling oil prices

Although oil and gas exports are no longer Timor-Leste’s main source of income (and may end entirely in about three years), the Fund still receives some revenue from them. Last year, the Ministry of Finance projected that oil and gas revenues in 2020 would be $595 million, based on an expected Brent oil price of $62 per barrel. However, on 13 March the price was $33. If prices stabilize at around $35, petroleum revenues in 2020 will be less than half of what the Ministry projected, and the ESI would drop by about $12 million. If they fall further, the impact will be even more severe.

Low oil prices will restrict petroleum development across the globe, including in Timor-Leste. If they stay low, projects will be less profitable for companies, and Bayu-Undan could stop production even earlier than 2022, as is currently planned. (This happened with Kitan in 2015.)

Companies and investors will reassess the economics of every future project – including on-shore exploration, Buffalo, Chuditch, Greater Sunrise and Tasi Mane – possibly leading to delays or cancellations. The bidding round that ANPM is currently conducting may attract less interest, because companies hesitate to embark on or invest in new projects when they are uncertain that they will make money.

Conclusion

If the prices and interest rates discussed above don’t get any worse (or better) during the rest of this year, by the end of 2020 Timor-Leste’s Petroleum Fund’s investments will have a net loss of about $1.5 billion, more than two billion lower than the $640 million gain the Ministry of Finance estimated in the proposed 2020 budget. In addition, oil and gas royalties and taxes will be $300 million less than the Government ‘prudently’ projected. The losses could continue in future years.

Last year, La’o Hamutuk projected that the Petroleum Fund could be empty by 2028, even if it is not used to pay capital costs of the Tasi Mane project. If current global trends persist, this will happen several years sooner.

The outgoing VIII Government intends to withdraw $250 million from the Petroleum Fund because the machinery of the state cannot continue to function without it. Since January (as in 2018), slower state spending has weakened Timor-Leste’s entire economy, making poor people even poorer. This reduced economic activity underscores how much our population depends on the state spending money from the Petroleum Fund – and how weak the rest of our economy is.

The recent threats to the Fund’s medium-term survival are not new, and could become even worse due to climate change and the reduced balance in the Fund. They remind us that Timor-Leste urgently needs to diversify its economy away from petroleum and investments. It is long past time to invest in our children’s health and education so that our productive, sustainable and equitable economy – agriculture, light industry and eco-tourism – can enable our people to survive and thrive. That is the only way to achieve the Petroleum Fund’s promise to benefit future generations.

Update, 14 March 2020

The above article was written on 13 March 2020, based on prices and yield rates at the close of business on Thursday 12 March. The following day, all three indices used in these calculations improved, and the drop in Petroleum Fund revenues became $1.8 billion, less than the $2.3 billion loss we calculated the day before. These numbers will change every day, and could get better or worse. The data is available at:

• S&P 500 Stock Market Index (2,711 on 13 March): https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/spx/charts
• U.S. Treasury Bond Yields (0.74% on 13 March): https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield
• Brent oil price ($34.69 on 13 March): https://www.exchangerates.org.uk/commodities/live-oil-prices/BRT-USD.html

Update, 31 March 2020

The end of the month was the end of the quarter, the worst for the U.S. stock market since 2008. The situation for the Petroleum Fund got much worse around 23 March, but recovered slightly by the end of the month, to about the same level as when the article above was originally written. If things stay unchanged for the rest of 2020, the Fund's balance at the end of the year will be about $1.9 billion less than was expected at the beginning of the year. (The previous article used 12 February as a reference; from that starting point the lost income is about $2.1 billion.)

The monthly BCTL report for February showed a drop in the Fund balance of $344 million during that month. Although the March report is not yet released, La'o Hamutuk estimates that it will show a further drop of $500 million.

For Timor-Leste, the continuing fall of the oil price is a more lasting worry, and many experts expect it to drop well below $20/barrel. Bayu-Undan's remaining revenue in 2021-2023 will be much less than the $260 million that has been projected. For the longer term, other petroleum projects on the drawing board -- including Buffalo, onshore, Chuditch and Greater Sunrise -- may not be profitable enough to justify the capital investment, and may not happen at all, as many other oil projects and contracting rounds around the world are being cancelled.

Update, 1 May 2020

During April, the U.S. stock market had its strongest month in 33 years, recovering about 60% of its losses between mid-February and the third week of March.

Oil prices and interest rates on U.S. bonds fell only slightly during April. If things stay as they were on April 30 for the rest of 2020, the Fund’s balance at the end of the year will be about $1.25 billion less than was expected at the beginning of the year.

The Petroleum Fund Balance at the end of March was $17.03 billion, a drop of $476 million during the month, and $663 million lower than at the beginning of 2020. No money was withdrawn in March. Although the balance went up to $17.60 billion in April, gains were limited by a $250 million withdrawal to finance the Covid-19 Special Fund and regular government operations.

Here’s how the components of the calculations in this blog did during the first four months of 2020. Although the stock market has recovered from its lowest point, it is still very volatile and could fall further, as the Covid-19 pandemic will continue for months.

For Timor-Leste, the continuing erratic drop in the oil price is a more lasting worry, and many experts expect that it could stay at or below $20/barrel for months or years. Bayu-Undan’s remaining revenue in 2021-2023 will be much less than the $260 million that had been projected. For the longer term, petroleum projects on the drawing board -- including Buffalo, onshore, Chuditch and Greater Sunrise -- may not be profitable enough to justify their capital investment and may not happen at all; similar projects around the world are being cancelled. The Petroleum Fund’s $650 million loan so that TimorGAP could buy participation in Greater Sunrise, which is still counted in its balance, may never be repaid.

In addition, many countries are extending or delaying their bidding rounds for new oil and gas exploration, although ANPM still hopes to get bids before October.

The Petroleum Fund balance will fall far in 2020 -- from negative investment returns and from extraordinary withdrawals to cope with the pandemic -- and there may not be any more petroleum revenues to replenish it. How will Timor-Leste finance its government after things return to “normal”?

Update, 1 June 2020

During May, the U.S. stock market continued to improve, in spite of major problems in the U.S. and global economies. Oil prices also recovered a little, although they remain about half of what they were at the start of the year. Interest rates on U.S. Treasury Bonds dropped slightly during the month. As the economic impacts of the pandemic are far from over, analysts worry that the rebound might not continue.

Proposta Orsamentu Jerál Estadu ba tinan fiskál 2020

Iha 15 Outubru 2019, Governu submete proposta OJE 2020 no Exposição de Motivos, depois loron balun fornese livru sira Orsamentu Jerál Estadu 2020 nian ba Parlamentu Nasionál. Komisaun permanente sira PN nian finaliza nia audiénsia ho Governu, Instituisaun estadu relevante inklui Sosiedade Sivíl. 

Paresér sira hotu husi instituisaun oin-oin inklui Sosiedade Sivíl nia, entrega hotu ona ba komisaun sira relevante no mós halo diskusaun durante audiénsia. Komisaun C  aprova no entrega relatóriu paresér ba Prezidente Parlamentu Nasionál iha dia 21 Novembru 2019. Hafoin adiamentu, PN sei hahú reuniaun plenária Parlamentár iha loron 2 Dezembru, hodi halo diskusaun no votasaun iha jeneralidade (dia 2-4 Dezembru), espesialidade, no votasaun final global iha dia 18 Dezembru 2019.

Montante Orsamentu Jerál Estadu ba tinan fiskál 2020 hamutuk biliaun $1,950. Nudár Orsamentu jerál ne’ebé besik hanesan iha Orsamentu Retifikativu tinan fiskál 2016 nian, boot liu iha istória Timor-Leste nian. Reprezentante Ministériu Finansa iha La’o Hamutuk nia enkontru públiku hatete se kreximentu OJE kada tinan kontinua hanesan kreximentu 2019-2020, FP bele mamuk iha 2027 kuandu Timor-Leste nia nivel despeza la’o nafatin ho montante hanesan agora, Timor-Leste nia Fundu Petrolíferu bele mamuk durante tinan 8 tuir mai, ne’ebé sei hotu iha 2027.

Finansiamentu ba OJE 2020 mak tuir mai ne’e:

• t$1,466 husi Fundu Petróleu (besik liu dala tolu RSE t$537)
• t$   200 husi 'carryover' husi 2019 (85% ne’ebé mai ona husi Fundu Petróleu )
• t$     73 husi empréstimu, atu selu fali iha futuru
• t$   210 husi reseita doméstika.

Despeza husi osan ne'e aloka ba kategoria sira tuir mai:

• t$241 ba saláriu no vensimentu (aumenta 13% kompara ho 2019)
• t$738 ba bens no servisu (aumenta 56% kompara ho 2019 - balu atu selu dívida ba kombustivel)
• t$458 ba transferénsia públiku (aumenta 26% kompara ho 2019)
• t$  53 ba kapitál menór (aumenta 69% kompara ho 2019)
• t$386 ba kapitál dezenvolvimentu (la inklui empréstimu) (aumenta 23% kompara ho 2019)
• t$  73 ba empréstimu ba kapitál dezenvolvimentu (hamenus 16% kompara ho 2019)

La’o Hamutuk nia rekomendasaun ne’ebé inklui ona ba Submisaun no hato’o durante iha audiénsia ho Komisaun C PN mak tuir mai ne’e:

• Ami husu ba membru Parlamentu Nasionál atu hare no kuidadu ba definisaun sira ba despeza husi OJE 2020. Liuliu ba aumentu hirak ne’ebé signifikante maka’as hanesan iha transferénsia publika liu Ministériu Petróleu no Minerais no mós aumentu iha Fundu Kontrapartidas.
• Proposta OJE 2020 ne’ebé sei fó impaktu ba Timor-Leste ninia sustentabilidade orsamentál no ameasa durasaun Fundu Petrolíferu nian. Ami husu atu Parlamentu Nasionál tetu didi’ak proposta OJE 2020 antes halo desizaun.
• Presiza haforsa no hametin sistema monitorizasaun no kontrolu atu nune’e bele asegura implementasaun ba programa sira la’o ho efisiénsia no efetivu hodi garante katak fó duni no maximiza benefísiu konkretu ba povu Timor-Leste.
• Ami sujere atu kontinua investe iha setór produtivu sira hanesan Agrikultura Familiar, Turizmu komunitária, indústria ki’ik sira ne’ebé bele redús kiak, malnutrisaun, dezempregu, no redús dependénsia ba importasaun.
• Investe iha rekursus umanu liu husi hadi’ak kualidade setór sira hanesan edukasaun, saúde, bee no saneamentu hodi bele asegura povu Timor-Leste sai povu ida ne’ebé saudável, matenek no produtivu.
• Suspende despeza ba projetu Tasi Mane no avansa ba estudu independente ida ne’ebé bele halo estudu avaliasaun ba kustu tomak, risku, benefísiu husi projetu ne’e rasik.
• Husu ba membru Parlamentu Nasionál atu la aprova envelope tokon $750 ba akordu empréstimu foun iha 2020, se bainhira Governu la fó esplikasaun detallu kona ba empréstimu sira ne’e ba saida, hodi halo saida no oinsá ho atu selu fila fali.

Relatóriu Komisaun sira ne’ebé Komisaun C Permanente Parlamentu Nasionál elabora no fahe ba deputadu sira, rekomenda asuntu barak atu Governu no Plenária Parlamentu Nasionál konsidera. Ami rejista pontu importante balun hanesan tuir mai ne’e:

1. Komisaun D husu atu bele redús signifikante OJE 2020 , sira temi biliaun $1.3, $1.4 ka $1.6. Komisaun ne’e mós husu atu redús planu despeza iha kategoria bens no servisu no transferénsia públiku ne’ebé konsidera nudár ejazeradu. Sira mós sujere atu la’ós redús de’it osan maibé bele hadi'ak kapitál umanu iha Nasaun. Sira mós preokupa katak Fundu Petrolíferu nia gastu, nia paradeiru ba de’it iha konsumu (BS no TP) la’ós investe husi kapitál dezenvolvimentu.
2. Komisaun C rekoñese katak atualmente reseita doméstiku atu selu de’it ba kategoria saláriu vensimentu mós la too. Komisaun C nia preokupasaun hanesan ho saida mak La’o Hamutuk preokupa katak iha planu Governu nia hatete prioridade ba setór infrastrutura, setór ekonómiku no sosiál hanesan saúde, edukasaun no agrikultura, konteúdu husi alokasaun la komprova deklarasaun ka planu Governu nian. Dehan mós proposta OJE 2020 viola rejime jurídiku aprovizionamentu tanba transfere ba munisipiu no jestaun projetu no investimentu too tokon $5. Komisaun mós rekomenda atu Governu halo espesifikasaun alokasaun ba ANPM, IPG no sira seluk. Rekomenda atu aprova diploma legal própriu kona-ba Orsamentu Seguransa Sosiál.
3. Iha relatóriu no rekomendasaun sira husu atu redús no elimina viajen estranjeiru sira ne’ebé la’ós de’it atu gasta osan maibé la ajuda esforsu sira doméstiku nia ba hadi’a Nasaun.
4. Infelizmente, Komisaun sira Parlamentu Nasionál la inklui preokupasaun sira kona-ba risku sira ne’ebé sei husik hela ba Timor-Leste husi projetu Tasi Mane no Greater Sunrise, gastu desnesesariu, transparénsia husi Fundu Kontrapartida.
5. Komisaun sira mós la temi katak despeza sira barak liu sei ba projetu boot no rekorente ka iha administrasaun públiku duke gasta ba dezenvolvimentu Nasaun ne’ebé nia efeitu direta ba ekonomia Nasaun nian no ajuda ema kiak sira iha area rural. 

Bele hetan informasaun no dokumentu seluk relevante ba prosesu no konteúdu OJE 2020 husi  http://www.laohamutuk.org/econ/OGE20/19OGE20.htm. Parlamentu Nasionál muda ona kalendáriu ba diskusaun OJE iha jeneralidade, espesialidade no final global hanesan temi iha leten. Razaun muda kalendáriu ida ne’e mak relatóriu paresér komisaun sira nian seidauk finaliza.

Hakarak klarifika informasaun ruma bele liga ba ami; +670-3321040, no +670-77234330.

Konvite nakloke ba públiku no media sira kona-ba diskusaun Proposta OJE 2020

La’o Hamutuk, Fongtil no Core Group Transparency-CGT sei realiza enkontru Públiku ida kona-ba Proposta orsamentu Jerál Estadu ba tinan fiskál 2020. Oradór sira mai husi Ministériu finansa, Partidu Opozisaun iha Parlamentu Nasional no Sosiedade Sivíl. Enkontru Públiku ne’e sei realiza iha kinta feira dia 3 Outubru 2019 iha Salaun Katedrál Bebora DILI, tuku 9 too remata iha lorokraik, ho han meudia. 

Komité Revizaun Polítika-KROP finaliza ona diskusaun kona-ba Orsamentu Jerál Estadu 2020 iha dia 23 Setembru 2019. Relatóriu KROP nian liga ho OJE 2020 konsellu Ministru apresia da uluk ona iha dia 27 setembru no sei aprova iha dia 2 Outubru 2019.

Bele mai partisipa no halo diskusaun kona-ba liña jerál Orsamentu Jerál Estadu 2020 nian ho oradór sira, bele rona informasaun, dadus sira, medida Orsamentais sira ne’ebé Governu diskute ona no bele konfirma ho reprezentante husi Ministériu Finansa ho difikuldade no preokupasaun sira no bele rona observasaun no sujestaun sira Sosiedade Sivíl nian, bele mós rona perspetiva Bankada Opozisaun FRETILIN nian relasaun ho ezekusaun no Proposta OJE 2020.

Nudár pasu inísiu atu parte hotu bele fahe informasaun, hetan informasaun, diskusaun no konfirmasaun no ajuda ita hotu bele iha koñesimentu ba partisipa di’ak liu tan iha pasu sira tuir mai, liu-liu bele intende no partisipa iha debate sira iha públiku bainhira diskusaun Orsamentu la’o iha Parlamentu Nasional bainhira Governu submete ona ba, iha loron 15 Outubru.

Mai, mai, bele aprende, bele rona, bele konfirma/husu no sei iha esplikasaun husi oradór sira no bele estabelese ligasaun konstrutivu entre Governu, sosiedade sivíl no partisipante sira seluk durante enkontru públiku. Bele hetan informasaun balun relasaun ho proposta Orsamentu Jerál Estadu 2020 iha ne’e; http://www.laohamutuk.org/econ/OGE20/19OGE20.htm, inklui aprezentasaun sira husi enkontru publiku ida ne'e.

Obrigadu barak ba atensaun no Partisipasaun. Celestino Gusmão, 77432621

Prémiu Solidariedade ba Saskia / Solidarity Prize to Saskia

Komité Popular fó Prémiu Solidariedade ba Saskia!

[English follows below]

Dia 10 Setembru 2019, Komité Popular ne’ebé organiza Konferénsia Solidariedade iha dia 27,28 no 29 Agostu 2019, oferese Prémiu Solidariedade ba mana Saskia Kouwenberg ba kontribuisaun boot ne’ebé nia halo ona ba Rai Doben Timor-Lorosa’e. Prémiu Solidariedade ne’e entrega husi Irma Maria de Lourdes Martins Cruz “Mana LU” no Prezidente Komité 12 Novembru Sr. Gregório Saldanha iha Balide, Centro Nasional Chega!

Nudár ema barak hatene, mana Saskia mak lori sai ba rai li’ur filmajen ne’ebé Jornalista Max Stahl halo ba masakre Santa Cruz iha tinan 1991. Mana Saskia lori filmajen ne’e ho maneira barani no determinadu tebes, ikus mai filmajen ida ne’e konsege loke koñesimentu iha nasaun barak no muda prioridade povu no nasaun boot nian kona-ba Indonézia no loke dalan ba Timor-Lorosa’e nia libertasaun.

Mana Saskia mós ativista solidariedade ne’ebé apoiu Timor-Leste ba tinan barak, iha Australia no Netherlands. No mós koordenadóra iha ba Projetu Observadór husi International Federation for East Timor (IFET-OP) iha 1999, Mana Saskia sempre hamriik hamutuk iha povu Timor-Leste nia sorin hamutuk ho kolega solidariedade sira seluk durante tinan barak hodi luta ba auto determinasaun rai doben nian.

Hafoin Konsulta Popular mana Saskia mós involve iha konsultasaun, peskiza no diskusaun sira atu harii organizasaun La’o Hamutuk iha tinan 2000.

Obrigadu barak, mana Saskia, kolega Solidariedade Internasionál tomak, ita-boot sira sempre hetan fatin iha uma Timor-Leste nian. Defende nafatin justisa no solidariedade Umana iha mundu rai Klaran!

As Lutas Kontinuam!

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People’s Committee gives Solidarity Prize to Saskia

On 10 September 2019, the People’s Committee which organized the Solidarity Conference on 27-29 August offered the Solidarity Prize to Saskia Kouwenberg for her huge contribution to the beloved land, Timor-Leste. The Prize was presented by Sr. Maria de Lourdes Martins Cruz “Mana LU” and the President of the 12 November Committee, Mr. Gregório Saldanha at the Centro Nasional Chega! in Balide.

As many people know, Saskia was the one who brought the film of the 12 November 1991 Santa Cruz massacre, made by journalist Max Stahl, to the rest of the world. Saskia’s determined and courageous carrying the film awakened many people worldwide to the reality of Indonesia’s occupation, moving national priorities and opening the way for Timor-Leste’s liberation.

Saskia was a solidarity activist who supported Timor-Leste for many years, in Australia and the Netherlands, and was a coordinator of the International Federation for East Timor Observer Project (IFET-OP) in 1999. Saskia always stood together with the Timorese people, alongside other solidarity friends, in the long struggle for this country’s self-determination.

After the 1999 Referendum, Saskia was involved in the consultations, research and discussions which led to the formation of the La’o Hamutuk organization in 2000.

We greatly appreciate mana Saskia and all international solidarity colleagues. You will always have a home in Timor-Leste. Continue to defend justice and human solidarity throughout the world!

The struggles continue!

Konvite ba Konferénsia Solidaridade no Espozisaun Fronteira Maritima

Konvite ba públiku, kona-ba Konferénsia Solidariedade no Espozisaun kona-ba Fronteira Maritima

English translation below

Loron 30 Agostu 2019, mak marka kompletamente tinan 20 Konsulta Popular, ida ne’ebé Povu Timor-Leste barani hasai obrigatóriu Indonézia nia militár husi Timor liu husi votasaun. Ikus mai Timor-Leste atinje ukun rasik an hafoin luta naruk no sofrementu oin-oin.

Grupu sosiedade sivíl no Movimentu Kontra Okupasaun Tasi Timor-MKOTT sei komemora konsulta popular no selebra vitória luta ba Fronteira Maritima.

Sei realiza Konferénsia Solidariedade iha dia 28 no marxa iha dia 29, ne’ebé sei diskute asuntu esensiál sira relasaun ho auto determinasaun no justisa sosiál (video).

MKOTT mós sei realiza espozisaun ida hodi selebra ba vitória no refleta fali luta naruk ne’ebé Povu Timor-Leste liu hodi buka Fronteira Maritima entre Australia no Timor-Leste. Ami enkoraja atu ema hotu bele mai partisipa iha Konferénsia no bele mai vizita espozisaun MKOTT nian iha Asosiasaun HAK, Farol, Dili.

MKOTT mós fa’an faru ne’ebé hakerek Solidariedade ba belun di’ak Bernard Collaery no Witness K, ita-boot sira bele sosa ho $20, nudár kontribuisaun ba MKOTT hodi selu ba nesesidade sira espozisaun nian no servisu sira seluk ne’ebé MKOTT presiza halo tan.

Obrigadu barak. Bele liga ba; Celestino Gusmão: 77432621

Invitation to the public to Solidarity Conference and Exhibition about Maritime Boundaries

30 August 2019 marks the 20th anniversary of the Popular Consultation (referendum), in which the people of Timor-Leste bravely voted to force the Indonesian military occupation to leave. At last, Timor-Leste achieved independence after a long struggle and much suffering.

Civil Society groups and the Movement Against the Occupation of the Timor Sea (MKOTT) will commemorate the Popular Consultation and celebrate the victory in the struggle for a maritime boundary.

There will be a Solidarity Conference on 28 August and a march on 29 August, with discussion of essential issues related to self-determination and social justice.

MKOTT is also holding an exhibition to celebrate the victory and reflect on the long struggle through which the people of Timor-Leste achieved a maritime boundary between Australia and Timor-Leste. We encourage everyone to participate in the conference and to visit MKOTT's exhibition at the HAK Association in Farol, Dili.

MKOTT is also selling T-shirts to express solidarity with our good friends Bernard Collaery and Witness K. You can buy them for $20, as a contribution to MKOTT which will help pay for the exposition and other work.

Thank you very much.

Informasaun sala no faktu sira kona-ba projetu Greater Sunrise

Link to this blog in English       Download hanesan PDF

Iha fin Setembru 2018, Timor-Leste no ConocoPhillips fó sai katak kompañia ConocoPhillips sei fa’an nia partisipasaun 30% iha Konsórsiu Greater Sunrise nian ba Timor-Leste ho tokon $350. Hafoin fulan ida tuirmai, Shell konkorda atu fa’an ninia partisipasaun 26.56% ho tokon $300 tan. Timor-Leste debate hela lei no orsamentu hodi bele implementa ba tranzasaun sira ne’e.

Tanba akontesimentu sira ne’e, hamosu diskusaun ho artigu oin-oin ne’ebé hakerek husi jornalista sira, ukun na’in no matenek na’in sira. Infelizmente komentáriu barak la fó kontextu loloos no inklui informasaun ne’ebé laloos. La’o Hamutuk publika lista ne’e iha kraik kona-ba kompriensaun públiku sira ne’ebé sala ho faktu sira ne’ebé relevante, hodi ajuda públiku atu komprende di’ak liután asuntu ida ne’e. Ami espera katak artigu ne’e sei hadi’ak liu kualidade no halo loos iha reportajen oin mai.

Hodi hetan informasaun tan iha Inglés, ne’ebé atualizadu regulármente, kona-ba projetu Sunrise no Timor-Leste nia partisipasaun, haree iha http://www.laohamutuk.org/Oil/Sunrise/18SunriseBuyout.htm. Blog ida ne'e atualiza iha loron 8 Marsu 2019.

Kompriensaun sala	Faktu loloos
Timor-Leste sei sosa partisipasaun (ka stock / ekidade / ações / asaun / saham) iha ConocoPhillips no Shell.	Kompañia sira ne’e konkorda ona atu fa’an sira nia parte iha Konsórsiu Sunrise nian ba Timor-Leste. Modelu negósiu hanesan ne’e la’ós sai buat ne’ebé foun iha indústria petróleu nian. Maibé, atu hola parte iha konsórsiu la hanesan bainhira ita sosa kompañia ida nia partisipasaun ka stock ne’ebé fasil atu fa’an fila fali lahó obrigasaun tan. Partisipante sira iha konsórsiu hanesan ne’e iha kompromisu ona atu investe dolar biliaun balun tan no mós fahe responsabilidade hodi jere projetu. Bainhira troka na’in husi konsórsiu ne’e, tenke hetan aprovasaun husi partisipante sira seluk. Iha mundu tomak poténsia ba projetu petróleu barak mak iha lukru aas liu duké Greater Sunrise. Nune’e, posibilidade boot katak kompañia lejítimu sira ho esperiénsia sei la iha interese iha Sunrise bainhira sira la hetan benefísiu espesiál.
Negósiu sira ne’e hatudu katak kompañia boot sira tau fiar ba Timor-Leste nia kapasidade hodi kaer projetu Sunrise.	Shell no ConocoPhillips sei la envolve tan iha projetu Sunrise. Sira kontente hodi simu Timor-Leste nia osan bainhira sira husik projetu ne’ebé sei la dezenvolve tuir dalan ne’ebé sira fiar bele hetan lukru boot liu.
Pipa husi Sunrise to’o Beaçu ne’e teknikamente la posivel.	Maski karik ne’e loos iha tinan 15 liubá, ohin-loron ema hotu konkorda katak bele dada pipa gas hakat liu iha tasi okos Timor Trench (trinxeira), parte tasi nian ne’ebé kle’an no naruk tebes entre Sunrise no Beaçu. Maibé, ida ne’e sei karun liu no iha risku boot liu duké modelu dezenvolvimentu sira seluk.
La presiza halo análize ka komparasaun ba opsaun alternativu hodi dezenvolve Sunrise.	La’o Hamutuk fiar katak dezenvolvimentu sira ba oin presiza maximiza benefísiu ba povu Timor-Leste, no iha tempu hanesan presiza minimiza kustu no risku. Opsaun hotu ne’ebé iha posibilidade presiza haree didi’ak husi peritu independente sira, hodi nune’e bele foti desizaun ne’ebé bazeia ba ekonomia husi projetu. Proponente sira ne’ebé hakarak dada pipa ba Beaçu seidauk fó sai ba públiku (ka seidauk halo) komparasaun atuál ho opsaun sira seluk, ezemplu hanesan dada pipa ba planta LNG Darwin ne’ebé eziste hela ka planta LNG namlele, no ita la hatene publikasaun hanesan ne’e iha ona ka lae.
Timor-Leste nia investimentu tomak iha projetu ida ne’e mak tokon $650.	Partisipante sira iha konsórsiu iha responsabilidade atu selu sira nia parte husi kustu kapitál no kustu operasaun ba projetu ne’e, atu simu fila fali parte husi nia lukru. Ida ne’e iha adisionál ba tokon $650 hodi sosa partisipasaun 56.56%, Timor-Leste sei presiza atu investe tan biliaun $10 resin hodi fasilita produsaun ba mina no gas husi Sunrise.
Presiza muda lei hodi negósiu fa’an-sosa sira ne’e bele la’o ba oin.	Sosa partisipasaun iha Sunrise bele la’o ho lei ne’ebé en vigor, nune’e la presiza halo alterasaun ba Lei Atividade Petrolíferu no. 13/2005.
Prezidente veta partisipasaun iha projetu Sunrise.	Prezidente la veta ba partisipasaun iha konsórsiu ne’e, tanba lejizlasaun ne’ebé aprezenta ba nia la inklui partisipasaun ne’e. Nia veta lei ida ne’ebé atu altera Lei Atividade Petrolíferu 13/2005, alterasaun ida ne’e fó dalan ba investimentu TimorGap nian atu mai diretamente husi Fundu Petrolíferu. Parte ida ne’e kontradís ho Lei Fundu Petrolíferu 9/2005 (ne’ebé altera tiha ona iha 2011). Maske nune’e, hafoin Parlamentu ultrapasa veto ne’e, Prezidente promulga sai Lei 1/2019, no lei ida ne’e agora daudaun sei pendente hela iha tribunál. Seidauk iha proposta lejizlasaun atu finansia dolar biliaun balun ba investimentu ne’ebé projetu Sunrise sei presiza.
Timor-Leste presiza altera Lei Atividade Petrolíferu hodi nia bele sai na’in ho partisipasaun liu 20% iha projetu petrolíferu.	TimorGAP (kompañia públiku Timor-Leste nian) sai ona na’in ba partisipasaun 50% iha Kontratu rua Fahe Produsaun (KFP/PSC) iha rai maran, 100% iha PSC S0-15-01 iha tasi, no 24% iha PSC JPDA 11-106 iha tasi. Lei ne’ebé eziste daudaun la prevene Timor-Leste atu sai na’in ba 30% ka liu iha Sunrise, tanba limita 20% la aplika ba sosa partisipasaun.
Presiza dois tersu (deputadu/a na’in 44) ka maioria simples (deputadu/a na’in 33) husi Parlamentu hodi revoga Prezidente nia veta.	Ita bele debate tópiku ida ne’e; Konstituisaun la klaru tanba asuntu prinsipál sira, inklui Orsamentu Estadu 2019, presiza 2/3 husi deputadu/a sira ne’ebé marka prezensa, maibé asuntu sira seluk presiza de’it maioria absoluta husi Parlamentu. Iha loron 10 fulan Janeiru, Membru Parlamentu na’in 41 vota a favór hodi kontra Prezidente nia veta ba alterasaun Lei Atividade Petrolíferu (iha ema ida de’it mak vota kontra, no Fretilin abandona plenária). Maske tuir mai  prezidente promulga duni lei ne’e, no Membru Parlamentu na’in 23 agora kontesta hela lei nia konstitusionálidade no legalidade iha Tribunál de Rekursu.
Akordu fa’an-sosa sira mak komplikadu liu; nune’e Kámara Kontas iha Tribunal la bele halo avaliasaun.	Lejizlasaun ne’ebé propoin sei hasai kontratu hotu-hotu no dokumentu legal seluk ne’ebé liga ba petróleu husi fiskalizasaun previa Kámara Kontas nian sei nafatin iha futuru. Ne’e la limita ba akordu fa’an-sosa, ka ba Sunrise, maibé bele mós aplika ba akordu finansiál ba projetu saida de’it ne’ebé iha relasaun ho petróleu. Iha fulan Dezembru, Reprezentante Espesiál Xanana Gusmão hateten sai liu husi GMN-TV katak akordu fa’an-sosa mak komplikadu tebes ba Kámara Kontas atu bele kompriende, no Timor-Leste tenke fiar relatóriu ne’ebé taka ba públiku “Due Diligence/Uji Kelayakan” sira husi PriceWaterhouseCoopers (PWC). La’o Hamutuk fiar katak akordu sira nia kustu no kompleksidade mak sai razaun tanbasá presiza duni transparénsia, kontrolu ho balansu, no revizaun independente previa ba akordu sira-ne’e.
Públiku bele asesu akordu fa’an-sosa no relatóriu “Due Diligence” sira.	Maski Reprezentante Espesiál ho fiar an tebes ko’alia ba públiku iha Sentru Konvensaun Dili (iha televizaun nasionál) katak dokumentu sira ne’e dokumentu públiku, maibé dokumentu sira seidauk bele asesu husi públiku, maski La’o Hamutuk halo pedidu tiha ona ba TimorGAP no Gabinete Fronteira Maritima hodi hetan dokumentu sira ne’e.
Lei Fundu Petrolíferu en vigor ne’e permite uza parte husi Fundu ne’e hodi investe ba Sunrise.	Artigu 15.1 husi Lei Fundu Petrolíferu No. 9/2005 ne’ebé altera ona iha tinan 2011 temi espesifikamente katak investimentu hotu husi Fundu ne’e tenke iha rai li’ur. Parágrafu seluk iha Artigu 15 temi katak másimu 5% bele uza ba ‘investimentu elegíveis seluk’ (ez. buat seluk husi títulu no ekidade sira), no mós katak la bele halo investimentu liu 3% ba kompañia ida. Maski alterasaun ba Lei Atividade Petrolíferu loke posibilidade ba halo investimentu husi Fundu ba TimorGAP, ne’e la altera Lei Fundu Petrolíferu. Dalan seluk atu hetan osan hodi sosa partisipasaun husi Sunrise mak liu husi aloka ba Orsamentu Estadu, ne’ebé kuaze 90% mai husi Fundu Petrolíferu. Orsamentu Estadu 2019 dahuluk ne’ebé pasa ona husi Parlamentu inklui tokon $650 ba ConocoPhillips no Shell. Maske nune’e hafoin Prezidente veto tiha orsamentu ne’e,  Parlamentu hasai alokasaun refere. Alokasaun orsamentál di’ak mak liu husi meius transparente, demokrátiku no legal atu uza Fundu Petrolíferu hodi selu parte husi Projetu Sunrise, sem estraga seguransa no akontabilidade husi Fundu Petrolíferu no la kria konfuzaun entre despeza no investimentu.
Timor-Leste sei presiza selu multa ba kompañia sira se karik seidauk selu pagamentu iha fulan Marsu 2019 nia rohan.	Akordu ho ConocoPhillips dehan katak se tokon $350 seidauk selu iha fulan Marsu nia rohan, Timor-Leste sei selu funan (la’ós multa) kada fulan ba balansu ne’ebé seidauk selu, 5% funan anuál. Entre Novembru 2018 no Janeiru 2019, Timor-Leste hetan retornu anualizadu 9.3% husi Fundu Petrolíferu, tan ne’e karik Timor-Leste bele hetan benefísiu finansiál husi investimentu Fundu Petrolíferu se ita rai osan iha Fundu no selu depois. Ita seidauk hatene katak iha deadline ka lae, bainhira mak presiza selu. Ita la hatene se iha prazu fiksu hodi halo pagamentu ka lae. Pagamentu ba Shell iha prazu to’o fulan Marsu 2020.
Osan hotu ne’ebé kompañia sira no Timor-Leste investe iha Projetu Sunrise sei hetan fila fali, ho aumenta tan 127%, hanesan saida mak akontese ba kompañia sira ne’ebé investe iha Bayu-Undan. (Atu dehan katak bainhira halo investimentu $100 sei simu osan fali $227).	Parte husi fraze ne’e mak loos. Maski nune’e, Bayu-Undan nia rejime taxa hetan dezeña hodi prioritiza kompañia nia interese duké governu nian, no Sunrise sei la presiza uza sistema hanesan ne’e. Mezmu karik Sunrise uza regra sira ne’ebé hanesan, regra sira ne’e sei aplika de’it ba investimentu iha kampu (upstream), no sei la aplika ba sosa partisipasaun, ka ba pipa no planta LNG. Bainhira fa’an gas, osan sira ne’e sei uza hodi selu fali investidór sira. Timor-Leste sei hetan 56.56% husi ne’e, ho fahe restu montante ba investidór sira seluk. Osan ne’ebé selu fali ba investidór sira sei hamenus totál taxa ne’ebé Timor-Leste sei simu husi produsaun mina no gas Sunrise nian. Nune’e karik kustu kapitál ne’ebé boot liu sei la fó benefísiu ba Estadu.
Timor-Leste simu ona liu biliaun $5 tanba halo diversifikasaun ba Fundu Petrolíferu nia investimentu iha ekidade internasionál hahú iha tinan 2012.	Entre inísiu 2013 no fin 2018, Fundu Petrolíferu simu ona biliaun $1.95 husi osan funan, no dezde uluk se Timor-Leste  investe de’it iha títulu sira osan simu ne’e sei ho montante hanesan de’it. Investimentu ba asoens sira aumenta nia valór ba biliaun $1.97 durante periodu ne’ebá, no durante ne’e folin ba asoens globál sira di’ak tebes. Iha periodu hanesan, Fundu Petrolíferu mós simu biliaun $6.93 husi reseita mina no gas no lakon biliaun $0.64 tanba iha mudansa iha valór troka-moeda iha merkadu internasionál.
Projetu Sunrise sei hetan susesu tanba Timor-Leste nia lider sira hakarak tebes atu halo ne’e sai susesu.	Karik Timor-Leste hetan finansa ho kustu ne’ebé ki’ik no risku ne’ebé ki’ik, ho dezeñu, konstrusaun no jestaun Projetu Greater Sunrise nian la’o ho perfeitu, sei nafatin iha fatór balu ne’ebé Timor-Leste labele kontrola. Sunrise sei prodús LNG ba tinan 25, no folin gas naturál bele tun maka’as bainhira fonte sira ne’ebé la konvensional (hanesan fracking ka perfurasaun sízmiku ba rai maran) kontinua aumenta, ou bainhira enerjia renovavel troka mina no gas. Konsekuénsia sira husi mudansa klimátika bele rezulta iha nasaun sira atu halo taxa (ka bandu) sunu mina no gas, ne’ebé bele hafraku Sunrise nia ekonomia. La iha serteza ba buat hirak ne’e, maibé iha risku ne’ebé sériu.
Karik projetu ne’e hetan aprovasaun lalais liu, Greater Sunrise sei fó reseita nato’on ba Timor-Leste lalais hodi prevene Fundu Petrolíferu tun ba zeru iha maizumenus tinan sanulu ba oin.	La’o Hamutuk halo estimasaun katak Timor-Leste nia Fundu Petrolíferu bele mamuk iha 2027, maski karik Estadu la gasta ka investe iha Projetu Sunrise. Karik Timor-Leste uza Fundu hodi investe (diretamente ka liu husi Orsamentu Estadu) iha Sunrise no Tasi Mane, iha posibilidade katak Fundu sei mamuk iha tinan hirak mai molok 2027. Se karik buat hotu-hotu tuir planu, proponente sira Projetu Sunrise nian iha espetativa ba produsaun atu hahú iha tinan 2026 nia rohan. Maski nune’e, bainhira haree tuir esperiénsia husi Bayu-Undan no projetu sira seluk, ita bele haree reseita boot la mai to’o tinan rua hafoin produsaun komesa hala’o. Ne’e tanba foufoun produsaun bele la’o neineik no iha tempu hanesan investidór sira tenke hetan fila fali sira nia osan inan. Karik Projetu Sunrise implementa ho perfeitu, Timor-Leste sei enfrenta austeridade – situasaun laiha osan sufisiente atu selu ba servisu báziku. Só bele prevene ne’e bainhira halo diversfikasaun ekonomia ho lalais iha setór sira ne’ebé la’ós mina.
Karik Greater Sunrise la prodús reseita no lukru ne’ebé tuir espetasaun, instituisaun ne’ebé finansia projetu (liu-liu Xina) bele fó sansaun todan ba Timor-Leste.	Ida ne’e halo ema preokupa, no iha posibilidade katak ne’e loos. Bainhira Kámara Kontas revee akordu empréstimu sira, ne’e sei hamenus perigu ida ne’e. Iha nasaun balu, inklui Sri Lanka, Myanmar no Angola, akordu empréstimu obriga produsaun-na’in sira ba mina no gas tenke fa’an fali ba sira nia kreditór sira ho folin baratu liu duké folin merkadu nian, ka fó dalan ba ajénsia emprestido̒r internasionál sai na’in ba infrastrutura xave. Maski nune’e, se karik projetu hetan lukru boot duni, Timor-Leste sei la presiza asina akordu ne’ebé obriga kondisaun todan ba Timor-Leste - no, se karik projetu la hetan susesu, di’ak liu la implementa projetu.
Ita tenke halo parte hotu husi Projetu Tasi Mane ne’ebé proposta hela hodi lori pipa Sunrise mai Timor-Leste.	Pipa Greater Sunrise no Projetu LNG, presiza infrastrutura iha kampu tasi-laran Sunrise nian; presiza mós pipa gas nian iha tasi okos no planta LNG, no kais ba ró boot sira iha Beaçu. La presiza auto-estrada iha kosta súl, refinaria iha Betano ka base fornesimentu lojistiku iha Suai (Suai Supply Base). Karik kansela no la kontinua ho komponente projetu sira seluk, ne’e la kria obstákulu tékniku ka ekonómiku atu kontinua projetu Beaçu LNG. Komponente ida-idak husi Projetu Tasi Mane tenke deside tuir ninia prosesu keta-ketak, ho análize independente no imparsiál ba kustu, benefísiu no risku.