tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4865792164550550384.post7577798605215298658..comments2024-01-05T03:39:19.759+09:00Comments on La'o Hamutuk: Key issues in the 2012 State BudgetTimor-Leste Institute for Development Monitoring and Analysishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16199752710172148153noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4865792164550550384.post-9476755015337184792012-06-25T11:39:11.381+09:002012-06-25T11:39:11.381+09:00Hi, Doug -
Thanks for your response, although I&#...Hi, Doug -<br /><br />Thanks for your response, although I'm not sure how useful it is to continue to discuss a preliminary analysis of the 2012 State Budget we wrote eight months ago. We subsequently wrote a detailed submission to Parliament; the budget has been amended and enacted; and the year it applies to is half over, with $534 million having been spent to date.<br /><br />We haven't looked into off-budget funding; in any event it will be much smaller than the GSB, as donor support is less than 15% of the combined sources budget in 2012. I'm not sure what speculation you're referring to. If you mean money which was allocated in the budget for one thing being spent on something else, this certainly does happen, but is beyond the scope of this blog posting. We were writing about the Government's budget that had been proposed to Parliament the week before, not about the entire state finances process.<br /><br />Regarding your last paragraph, we think budget execution is an in appropriate measure of state performance, whether high or low. If something stupid was put into the budget, it shouldn't be executed. Nor should money be wasted or stolen in an effort to achieve a 100% execution score. Service delivery and results are much more useful measures.<br /><br />In any event, our web page on the 2012 state budget now includes much more information, including links to the full-year 2011 and first-quarter 2012 budget execution reports published by the Ministry of Finance. It also has updated versions of the graphs that prompted the original discussion, based on executed rather than budgeted numbers for 2011. Check it out at <a rel="nofollow">http://www.laohamutuk.org/econ/OGE12/10OJE2012En.htm</a>.<br /><br />As you may be aware, the public window (Budget Transparency Portal) into Freebalance's system was out of service for months (it appears to be fixed today, but I haven't yet explored it in depth), and the Procurement Portal is dead in the water. Do you know what the problem is? See <a rel="nofollow">http://laohamutuk.blogspot.com/2012/05/lh-urges-more-effective-tl-transparency.html</a>.<br /><br />Keep in touch,<br />CharlieTimor-Leste Institute for Development Monitoring and Analysishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16199752710172148153noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4865792164550550384.post-398770318846032432012-06-25T00:02:48.564+09:002012-06-25T00:02:48.564+09:00Keep up the good work in analyzing available infor...Keep up the good work in analyzing available information. Visualization is first class and presents your point of view effectively. The public policy discussion from your organization is valuable, in my opinion. It shows the positive effects of civil society using data and analysis to influence policy. In particular, your analysis about results/outcomes is the kind of work that we rarely see in developed countries. <br /><br />Nevertheless, there are some areas from the blog entry and your response that needs more analysis.<br /><br />The budget documents do not answer the question that I asked (your last line). I'm not speculating on what the budget document might contain because off-budget funding is not part of the budget. Off-budget funding can skew any analysis of budget information. There is all sorts of speculation, as you know, about the funds spent off-budget in Timor-Leste. Your answer is as speculative as my question. Let's hope that IATI and other elements of aid transparency, like the Aid Transparency Portal (developed by Development Gateway) gives us better information than we have now.<br /><br />Maybe I'm reading more into the comments than I should. I'm concerned about the notion that it is somehow bad fiscal discipline that governments spend close to 100% of their budget. Yet: this is considered a good practice as demonstrated by PEFA assessment criteria.Doug Haddenhttp://www.freebalance.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4865792164550550384.post-21555255414684296402011-10-10T14:55:50.542+09:002011-10-10T14:55:50.542+09:00Thanks, Doug. There's much more information o...Thanks, Doug. There's much more information on our web site than we put in this blog entry. Regarding development partner funding (Budget Book 5), donors have committed $188.9 million in ODA for 2012, which is less than 10% of the combined sources budget of $1,952 million. This has declined somewhat over the past few years (it's $84 million less than for 2011), but nowhere near as much as the expenditures of state funds has increased ($457 million since last year).<br /><br />As the graph at the top of the blog explains, we use budget execution data for years through 2010, and planned figures for 2011 and 2012, as they haven't been executed yet. The just-published RDTL report to the Fragile States conference next month says "Significant improvements have been made in budget execution in recent years. In 2006/2007 the Government had a budget execution rate of 48.9% on a budget of USD 328.6 million. In 2008 the rate rose to 79%, an increase of 30%. In 2009, results again improved in line with administrative reforms. The budget execution rate across government as of January 29, 2010 was 89%" (the more up-to-date Budget documents say 91% for 2010). If this trend continues, there will not be much difference between budgeted and executed figures in 2011 and 2012, so the distinction is less important.<br /><br />Regarding donor spending on health and education, Budget Book 5 indicates that donors REDUCE their support for these sectors between 2011 and 2012: Education fell from $43.2 million to $29.6 million, while health dropped from $21.0 million to $16.8 million. Part of this decrease is probably because some donors have not reported their complete 2012 plans yet. Also, Cuba's significant and essential support for health is not included in the government's reporting of donor spending.<br /><br />La'o Hamutuk encourages people interested in the budget to read the documents, rather than speculate about what they might contain.<br /><br />-- Charlie Scheiner, La'o HamutukTimor-Leste Institute for Development Monitoring and Analysishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16199752710172148153noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4865792164550550384.post-50599039011331061192011-10-08T05:21:07.355+09:002011-10-08T05:21:07.355+09:00This is some good analysis. However, there could b...This is some good analysis. However, there could be a lot of missing information based on off-budget donor funding.<br /><br />The total amount spent in the country be development partners may be on the decline. So, there may not be the significant increases in net expenditures as shown in the graph as the government takes on more of the spending burden. Of course, the donor off-budget funds may have remained the same, so the analysis holds true.<br /><br />It's not clear whether you are using budget plan data or budget execution data. The government has not fully executed the budget in the past.<br /><br />The reduction in education and health spending should be of concern. But, is there donor off-budget spending in these sectors? Perhaps donors have reduced the security spending and moving to these sectors.Doug Haddenhttp://www.freebalance.com/blognoreply@blogger.com