20 July 2018

Ohin, PN sei vota kona ba transferensia husi FP / Parliament decides on Petrol. Fund transfer today

Ohin dadeer, sei iha plenária estraordináriu iha Parlamentu Nasional atu debate no deside kona ba proposta lei husi Governu ne’ebé autoriza transferénsia tokon $140 husi Fundu Petrolíferu atu finansia atividade estadu sira ba Jullu no Agostu. La'o Hamutuk suporta proposta ida ne'e, tanba proposta ne'e la halo mudansa ba lei sira ne’ebé estabelese tiha ona. Bele le'e liu tan kona ba asuntu iha ne'e.

This morning, an extraordinary Parliamentary plenary meeting will debate and vote on  Government's proposal to authorize a special transfer of $140 million from the Petroleum Fund to finance state activities during July and August. La'o Hamutuk supports this proposal, which does not change existing laws and complies with the letter and the spirit of Timor-Leste's solid system for managing money from oil and gas exports, as well as with recommendations we recently discussed with Parliament.

The proposed law, with explanatory materials, is here in English or Portuguese. Read more about this issue and our analysis.

14 May 2018

Eleisaun Antesipada fó maioria ba AMP

La’o Hamutuk husi inísiu tau matan ba Eleisaun Antesipada no bele hato’o relatóriu ba rezultadu final ne’ebé bazeia ba CNE nia tabulasaun (sura) husi sentru votasaun hotu. Ami sei publika analiza detalladu liu iha loron hirak oin mai.

Rezultadu mak tuirmai ne’e:
  • AMP: 49.6% = kadeira 34.
  • Fretilin: 34.2% = kadeira 23.
  • PD: 8.1% = kadeira 5.
  • FDD: 5.5% = kadeira 3.
Kada partidu no koligasaun seluk ne’ebé la konsege hetan kadeira iha Parlamentu, hanesan MSD, MDN, PEP no PR, hetan menus husi 1% husi totál votu.

Parlamentu foun sei inklui feto na’in 22 no mane na’in 43, maibé númeru rua ne'e bele muda se ema balu rejeita kadeira.

Lista iha sorin loos hatudu sé de’it mak eleitu husi koligasaun AMP nian, ne’ebé hetan maioria, no lista iha sorin karuk hatudu kandidatu husi partidu opozisaun sira. Bele click iha lista sira atu bele haree klaru no moos liután.

Maluk sira bele mós download iha PDF lista kandidatu husi partidu polítiku sira ne’ebé sei tuur iha Parlamentu. Se kandidatu balu rejeita atu simu kadeira, sira seluk (ne’ebé iha naran marka ho kinur) sei muda ba leten hodi troka sira.

La’o Hamutuk simu ho ksolok Membru Parlamentu hotu ne’ebé foin eleitu, no ami hato’o parabéns ba sira. Ami espera buat di’ak de’it ba sira bainhira sira simu knaar hodi estabelese polítika no programa sira ne’ebé bele serbí povu timoroan tomak, liuliu sira ne’ebé presiza liu tulun.

Husi inísiu bainhira Timor-Leste hetan ukun rasik an, La’o Hamutuk enkoraja no suporta sira ne’ebé foti desizaun atu promove dezenvolvimentu ne’ebé sustentável no justu hodi atinje direitu umanu ho justisa. Timor-Leste sei hasoru dezafiu barak, no ami prontu ajuda Parlamentu foun ne’e atu haree no responde ba dezafiu hirak ne’e efetivamente.

13 May 2018

Early election gives majority to AMP

La'o Hamutuk has been following the Early Parliamentary Election and can report final results, based on CNE's tabulation from all polling centers. We will post a more detailed analysis in a few days.

The results are:
  • AMP: 49.6% = 34 seats.
  • Fretilin: 34.2% = 23 seats.
  • PD: 8.1% = 5 seats.
  • FDD: 5.5% = 3 seats.

Each of the four other parties and coalitions on the ballot -- MSD, MDN, PEP and PR -- got less than one percent of the vote.

The new Parliament will include 22 women and 43 men, although this could change if some  decline to take their seats. 

The list at right shows who was elected from the AMP coalition, which has a majority, while the list at left shows the opposition parties. Click on either list to see it larger and clearer.

You can also download a PDF list of the people who will be in Parliament from each political party. If some winners decide not to take their seats, others (behind the orange rectangles) will move up to substitute for them.

La'o Hamutuk welcomes all the newly-elected Members of Parliament, and we wish them well as they undertake their duties to establish policies and programs which serve all the people of Timor-Leste, especially  those most in need.

Since before Timor-Leste restored its independence in 2002, La'o Hamutuk has encouraged and supported decision makers to  advance sustainable, equitable development while achieving human rights and justice. Timor-Leste faces major challenges, and we are ready to help the new Parliament address them effectively.

19 April 2018

Learning from our past to craft educational policy


Education is often presented as the fundamental hope of the nation. It is the pathway to success, the way to change our lives for the better. La’o Hamutuk believes that education is indeed critical to ensuring a strong future for our nation, finding solutions to the problems we face, and building unity and security. La’o Hamutuk has long advocated for increased funding to the national education sector; spending on education has long been low compared to other countries, and has steadily declined since 2014.

We also realize that it takes more than money to make education strong and effective. Its success also depends on what is taught, how it is taught, good management and accountability, and agreement about the ultimate purposes of education.

Public discussions often compare past systems to the present, offering potential models to follow, at least in part. In general, these comparisons focus on the Portuguese or Indonesian systems, which we’ll explore below. First, let’s examine more closely the literacy and education campaigns of Fretilin in 1974 and 1975.

1974-1975 Literacy campaigns


These literacy campaigns, led by Vicente ‘Sahe’ Reis and Mau Lear, were non-formal, but the first Timorese-led model for national education. Even though Indonesia’s invasion prevented the development of a formal national education system, it is still helpful to examine the purpose and methods of these early campaigns, and to imagine together what they might have led to.

Fretilin’s literacy and education campaigns were for students of all ages and drew inspiration from African anti-colonial writer Amilcar Cabral and Brazilian educator Paulo Freire. Amilcar Cabral encouraged those lucky few who had been educated under colonialism to use their privileges to serve the people, rather than using them to continue a system of domination.[1] Paulo Freire, in his famous book Pedagogy of the Oppressed, describes schools where teachers are viewed as the holders of all knowledge and students are meant to listen, copy, memorize and repeat what the teacher says. Freire names this as the oppressive "banking model" where students are like empty vessels which the teacher fills. This model serves to maintain a present order, imposing the values and culture of the dominant class in order to pacify, control, and dominate.

In contrast to the "banking model", Freire described another model where students are active participants in the learning process , as agents of their learning and as full human beings who bring with them their own experiences, knowledge and emotions. Whereas the banking model keeps students in their socio-economic place, the new model liberates by helping people to become critical, creative, active and responsible members of society.

The Fretilin literacy manual of 1974-1975
Fretilin’s literacy campaign was an “integral part of Fretilin’s political program during the campaign for independence”.[2] It had multiple goals including:
  • empowering all Timorese by teaching them to read and write
  • decolonizing people’s thinking so that everyone could be actively involved in democratic self-governance
  • building national unity. The vision was of a literate, politically aware and engaged population, ready to work together with respect and discipline for a better future.
In practice, Fretilin allowed any local language to be used to teach literacy, but gave Tetum a special status because more than half of Timorese at the time spoke Tetum, making it the closest thing to a lingua franca. Portuguese, in contrast, was spoken by a very small percent of the population. A basic literacy manual was developed in Tetum, and used in a highly coordinated grassroots literacy campaign, which was tragically cut short by the Indonesian invasion and occupation, though due to extraordinary efforts it continued for several years in the mountains.

The methodology for teaching literacy in 1974-75 focused on
  1. identifying the relation between letters and sounds (decoding)
  2. making meaning from the combination of letters
  3. linking that meaning to oneself and the surrounding environment and its political reality.
The simple method empowered people not only to read words, but to express their personal reality, analyze the colonial system, and aspire to and take action toward a more just future. Though Fretilin’s constitution of the time designated Portuguese as the official language, they chose Tetum and allowed for local languages to be used for the literacy and education campaigns because the goal focused on meaningful discourse and problem-solving.

Education under Salazar's Portugal


During most of colonial Portuguese presence here, only children of Europeans (mestiços and assimilados) were given access to formal education; later, sons of liurai were added to this elite group. Only in the 1940s, under an agreement between the Salazar regime and the Catholic Church, were more Timorese given the chance to study at “rudimentary schools” whose main tasks were “civilizing” and “acculturating Timorese elites to Portuguese culture.”[3] The purpose of schools being to control and keep people in their place, methods of instruction were therefore highly authoritarian and followed the "banking model". Only about 10% of the Timorese population ever went to school under the Portuguese colonial system, and Portuguese was the only language permitted. Tetum and other local languages were strictly banned from schools and teachers focused on Portuguese or European culture, philosophy, science, geography and literacy. School discipline was militaristic and corporal punishment was routine. Teachers’ presentations mirrored the Portuguese colonial perspective, with little respect for Timorese traditions, geography or culture.

These characteristics of the colonial Portuguese education system were the logical result of the fascist Salazar government which also suppressed self-expression and critical thinking in continental Portugal. Sahe and Mau Lear rejected the discrimination and elitism of the colonial school system and sought an egalitarian, liberation-based model for the people of Timor-Leste.

Some people today romanticize the old colonial schools, saying they were models of discipline, knowledge and learning, where students successfully learned many important facts and skills, including how to read, write, speak and even struggle for national liberation using the Portuguese language. Although there is no doubt that key independence leaders learned many things at these schools, what they learned about liberation, democracy and self-determination came primarily from their own experience, wisdom and searching, inspired by student group discussions in Portugal, where many of them studied, and the popular education movements occurring within Portugal’s colonies in Africa.

Education during the Indonesian occupation


While schooling under Indonesia used many of the same authoritarian, violent discipline methods, it followed a radically different model with a different purpose. The purpose of education under Indonesia was primarily to convince Timorese that they were Indonesians. Whereas Portugal’s colonial policy had been to teach only a small elite, Indonesia built new schools across the country to be able to implement a policy of mass indoctrination.

Like Portugal, Indonesia also denied the inclusion of Timorese culture, history, geography and language in schools; their goal was to impose an Indonesian identity. The slogan “Bahasa menunjukan bangsa” or “Language as the identity of the nation” shows how important language was viewed in the process of nation-building. Top academic students here were identified and sent off to study in Jakarta or elsewhere in order to serve the political structure in place.

Some people also like to romanticize Indonesian schools, viewing them as a model for quickly and effectively teaching a language which most people in the society didn’t know. Some admire the successful transmission of Indonesian nationalist propaganda via schools, while others argue that even though the colonial messages of these older systems were not good, we can learn from the methods which instilled nationalist ideology and good discipline in students. The argument seems to accept non-democratic, authoritarian and even violent methods as acceptable means to produce disciplined, patriotic members of society.

Sahe and Mau Lear knew that the method of instruction is as important as the content. Respect and discipline were key values taught in these literacy and education campaigns: respect for each person’s experience and perspective, respect for the needs of the group. Discipline was presented as taking personal responsibility, working hard, and following the principles of democracy not because someone is holding a stick over you, but because you understand this is what is best for the common good.

Current goals for education


Today, we must carefully debate and consider the purpose of education in the Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste. At different levels of schooling, the purpose will be different. We’ll focus here on the preschool and primary school curriculum, as there is current debate around this, and it represents the foundation for all higher levels of schooling.

The Constitution mandates the state to provide free, compulsory primary schooling for all Timorese, however, it does not specify the purpose of this schooling. Schools must give all children the power that comes from literacy, and be allowed to express themselves. We must build communities of learners within schools, set up democratic processes of inquiry and investigation, and teach critical thinking, self-reliance, practical application of skills learned to build on what we know and deepen and broaden our thinking and analysis.

Language policy in education


In terms of language policy, the goal has been decided in the Constitution: Article 13 reads: “1. Tetum and Portuguese are the official languages of the Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste.  2. Tetum and other national languages will be valued and developed by the State.”  The goal in primary school should be to build a strong base for students to understand both languages. The message of the colonizers was always that Tetum and other local languages were backward and uncivilized. Still today, many parrot this message that Tetum is not advanced like Portuguese and will only hold students back.

In fact, Tetum is currently being used to teach and work in technical subjects including physics and geology up to university level. The National Institute of Linguistics has designated clear methods to adapt any word from Portuguese into Tetum, making it natural and easy to borrow modern technical terms while continuing to make use of a grammar and usage familiar to students. Every language can be used to describe the observations and ideas of its speakers. There is no way to scientifically or linguistically measure the “modern-ness” or “backwardness” of a language.

Kenyan writer Ngugi wa Thiong’o, in his book Decolonizing the Mind, describes the language of the colonizer as a “cultural bomb” – a tool for imperialism – but also as a powerful weapon of resistance for colonized peoples. “The effect of the cultural bomb is to annihilate a people’s belief in their names, in their languages, in their environments, in their heritage of struggle, in their unity, in their capacities and ultimately in themselves.” [4]

Thiong’o writes that the purpose of modern education should be to decolonize the minds of people, and a starting place for this is the restoration of the relationship between mental development and the environment of the home and local community.  The goal of modern schooling in democratic nations should be to serve everyone, to ensure every child achieves a basic level of success in school, not only a small elite, and to build skills for democratic participation, not cowering obedience. Language then, including a former colonial language, can be used to empower.

First grade reader, National Curriculum 2015

Crafting good policy now and for the future


The primary curriculum rolled out in 2015 uses Tetum as the first language of literacy, allowing for other local languages to be used orally for students who do not understand either Tetum or Portuguese. Just as in the 1974-75 literacy campaigns under Fretilin, students are taught the relationship between letters and sounds, the process of decoding, and from there, they consider meaning and the connection to their lives and needs. According to the 2015 Census:
  • 30% of children aged 5-9 have Tetum Prasa as their first language
  • 0.08% of them have Portuguese as their first language.
  • 80% of all people in Timor-Leste have Tetum Prasa as a first, second or third language
  • 5.4% have Portuguese as a first, second or third language.
Using Tetum means that more students are successful, that their parents can be involved, that they can express themselves well. Starting with Tetum also ensures that more children will have the language base they need to successfully learn Portuguese well.[5]

Democratic, non-violent models of discipline in schools exist and are in action now in many schools, thanks to initiatives like the Child Friendly Schools Initiative and the 2015 curriculum. When students are involved in making classroom rules, they tend to take responsibility to uphold them. When classroom activities are interesting and varied, discipline problems tend to be fewer. When the punishment or consequences of "bad" behavior are restorative and meaningful, they are more likely to teach valuable lessons, as opposed to building resentment and increasing drop-out rates.

Our schools can be both democratic and disciplined; they can empower individuals to meet their potential, while also teaching each child to work effectively in a group and to value collective goals and work. The current purpose of schools remains similar to that of Sahe and Mau Lear: liberation from ideas and practices that oppress and discriminate, safeguarding against further exploitation, and empowerment through building skills in communication, critical thinking, and collective action. Today, our goals must also include building strong language skills for a multilingual society, laying a foundation for effective research, analysis, innovation, development and the ability to put theory into practice; to apply one’s knowledge to solve real-life problems.

Aprende husi pasadu hodi konstrui polítika edukasaun

Edukasaun mak esperansa fundamentál ba nasaun, dalan ba susesu, maneira ne’ebé ita bele hadi’a ita-nia moris. La’o Hamutuk fiar katak edukasaun mak buat importante duni hodi asegura futuru di’ak ba nasaun, hodi hetan solusaun ba problema sira-ne’ebé ita enfrenta, no hodi harii unidade no seguransa.

Kleur ona La’o Hamutuk halo advokasia atu aumenta orsamentu ba sektór edukasaun nasionál; realidade mak orsamentu ba edukasaun kleur ki’ik bainhira kompara ho nasaun sira seluk, no nia tun tinan ba tinan dezde 2014. Ami mós hatene katak aumenta osan de’it la bele halo sektór edukasaun forte no efetivu. Edukasaun nia susesu depende mós ba saida mak hanorin, oinsá hanorin, jestaun di’ak, akontabilidade no konkordánsia kona-ba edukasaun nia objetivu prinsipál.

Bainhira mosu duni diskusaun públiku, dala barak ema temi sistema iha Timor-Leste nia istória hodi halo komparasaun ba situasaun agora, no karik hanesan modelu atu tuir, ka tuir parte balu. Baibain komparasaun sira-ne’e foka ba sistema sira iha tempu Portugál ka Indonézia, ne’ebé ami sei klarifika iha kraik ne’e. Maibé molok haree buat ne’e, mai ita haree didi’ak kampaña literasia (alfabetização ka prosesu ensinu-aprendizajen ba lee no hakerek) no edukasaun Fretilin nian iha tinan 1974 no 1975.

Kampaña literasia 1974-1975 nian


Kampaña sira-ne’e, ne’ebé lidera husi Vicente ‘Sahe’ Reis no Mau Lear, la’ós edukasaun formál, maibé nu’udar dahuluk Timoroan harii modelu ida ba edukasaun nasionál. Maski invazaun husi Indonézia prevene sira atu bele dezenvolve sistema ne’e to’o nivel formál nasionál, maibé interesante nafatin analiza sira-nia métodu no objetivu husi kampaña uluk sira-ne’e, no imajina hamutuk buat ne’ebé karik sira bele dezenvolve, karik invazaun la mosu.

Fretilin nia kampaña literasia no edukasaun hato’o ba estudante ho kualkér idade no foti inspirasaun husi buat ne’ebé autór anti-koloniál mak hakerek, inklui Amilcar Cabral husi Guinea-Bissau no Kabuverde no Paulo Freire husi Brazil. Amilcar Cabral enkoraja sira-ne’ebé sorte atu hetan edukasaun liuhosi sistema koloniál tenke uza sira-nia priviléjiu sira atu serve povu, envezde uza priviléjiu sira atu kontinua sistema dominasaun.[1]  Paulo Freire, iha ninia livru Pedagogia do Oprimido, deskreve eskola iha ne’ebé ema haree manorin (profesór) sira nu’udar ema ne’ebé hatene hotu no estudante nia knaar atu rona, kopia, dekor no repete de’it buat ne’ebé manorin sira hato’o. Freire fó naran ba sistema hanesan ne’e ‘modelu banku’, tanba estudante sira hanesan kaixa mamuk ne’ebé manorin tenke enxe to’o nakonu. Modelu ne’e serve atu mantén orden atuál, hodi impoin valór no kultura husi sosiedade nia klase dominante atu pasifika, kontrola no domina ema seluk.

Freire foti modelu ida seluk husi modelu banku ne’e, modelu ida-ne’ebé haree estudante sira mak partisipante ativu iha prosesu aprendizajen, ajente ba sira-nia aprendizajen rasik, ne’ebé lori sira-nia esperiénsia, matenek no emosaun rasik. ‘Modelu banku’ ne’e buka de’it atu hametin estudante iha ninia fatin sosio-ekonómiku, maibé modelu foun ne’e liberta ema liuhosi ajuda sira sai membru sosiedade sira-ne’ebé kriativu, ativu, krítiku no responsavel.

Kampaña literasia Fretilin nian mak “parte integrál hosi Fretilin nia programa polítiku durante kampaña ba ukun rasik-an.”[2] iha objetivu oioin, inklui:
  • hakbiit Timoroan hotu-hotu liuhosi alfabetizasaun, hakerek no lee;
  • dekolonializa ema-nia hanoin hodi ema hotu-hotu bele envolve ativamente iha ukun rasik-an demokrátiku; no
  • harii unidade nasionál. Sira-nia vizaun katak Timoroan hotu-hotu bele lee no hakerek, iha konxiénsia ba polítika, hola parte iha prosesu governu, no prontu atu serbisu hamutuk ho respeitu no dixiplina ba futuru ida-ne’ebé di’ak liu.

Iha prátika, Fretilin fó lisensa atu uza lian lokál naran, maibé tau tetun iha pozisaun espesiál tanba tempu ne’e maioria Timoroan ko’alia tetun, nune’e tetun sai hanesan língua franca. Momentu ne’e, parte ki’ik husi Timoroan sira mak ko’alia lia-portugés. Manuál literasia ne’ebé sira dezenvolve iha tetun uza kampaña literasia populár ne’ebé koordena di’ak, maski tenke para bainhira Indonézia tama no okupa Timor-Leste. Liu hosi esforsu estraordináriu, kampaña ne’e kontinua nafatin durante tinan balu iha ai-laran.

Metodolojia ne’ebé Fretilin uza iha 1974-75 hodi hanorin lee no hakerek mak foka liu ba
  1. identifika relasaun entre soletra no lian (deskodifika)
  2. kria signifikadu husi kahur letra sira
  3. halo ligasaun entre signifikadu ne’e no ema nia an rasik no meiu ambiente iha ne’ebé nia hela ba, hamutuk ho ninia realidade polítika.
Métodu simples ida-ne’e fó kbiit ba ema la’ós atu bele lee liafuan de’it, maibé atu mós espresa sira-nia realidade rasik, no analiza sistema koloniál, no mós fó inspirasaun atu bele halo asaun ba futuru ne’ebé justu liu. Maski Fretilin nia konstituisaun iha tempu ne’ebá identifika portugés hanesan lian ofisiál, sira hili tetun, no mós uza lian lokál seluk iha kampaña literasia no edukasaun, tanba sira-nia objetivu foka liu ba diskusaun analítiku ho malu no rezolve problema.

Edukasaun iha Salazar nia okos


Durante kuaze tempu koloniál portugés tomak, só oan sira husi ema europeu (mestiços no assimilados) mak hetan asesu ba edukasaun formál; tempu ruma, oan-mane sira husi liurai mak hetan mós inklui iha grupu elite ne’e. Só iha dékada 1940, liuhosi akordu entre rejime Salazar no igreja katólika, Timoroan balu seluk mak hetan oportunidade atu estuda iha “ensinu rudimentár” ne’ebé iha objetivu atu “siviliza” no “hatoman elite Timoroan sira ba kultura portugés.”[3]  Hanesan objetivu báziku ba edukasaun mak atu forma grupu elite ki’ik ne’ebé sei serbisu ba rejime koloniál no asegura kontinuasaun ba Portugál nia domíniu, entaun métodu instrusaun sempre autoritáriu, no tuir ‘modelu banku’ nian. Só 10% de’it husi Timoroan hetan edukasaun iha sistema koloniál portugés nian, no lian portugés mak língua ida-de’it ne’ebé ema permite. Eskola bandu tetun no lian sira seluk, no manorin sira fó valór boot liu ba buat ne’ebé mai husi Portugál no Europa - kultura, filozofia, siénsia, jeografia no literasia. Dixiplina iha eskola tuir modelu militár nian no manorin sira halo violénsia beibeik ba estudante sira. Konteúdu mak kuaze hotu hato’o husi perspetiva koloniál Portugál nian, ne’ebé ladún fó respeitu ba Timoroan nia tradisaun, jeografia ka kultura.

Karakterístika sira-ne’e husi sistema edukasaun koloniál portugés nian mak rezultadu lójiku husi governu faxista Salazar nian: auto-espresaun no hanoin krítiku mós halakon iha Portugál rasik. Sahe no Mau Lear rejeita diskriminasaun no ideia elitizmu hosi sistema edukasaun koloniál, no buka atu harii modelu ida bazeia ba egalitarianizmu no libertasaun ba ema Timoroan.

Ema balu ohin ‘romantiza’[4] eskola koloniál uluk nian, dehan katak eskola sira-ne’e mak modelu ba dixiplina di’ak, matenek no aprendizajen, iha-ne’ebé estudante sira bele aprende ho susesu faktu no abilidade barak ne’ebé importante, inklui lee, hakerek, ko’alia, no mós dala ruma oinsá luta ba libertasaun nasionál hodi uza lia-portugés. Maski la iha duvida katak membru balu husi Timor-Leste nia lideransa ba independénsia aprende buat lubuk ida iha eskola sira-ne’e, maibé buat ne’ebé sira aprende kona-ba libertasaun, demokrasia no ukun rasik-an mai husi sira-nia esperiénsia rasik, sira-nia matenek no sira nia peskiza rasik, ne’ebé mai hosi grupu diskusaun estudantíl sira iha Portugál, iha-ne’ebé sira barak mak estuda, no hosi movimentu edukasaun populár sira-ne’ebé akontese iha kolónia portugés sira iha Áfrika.

Edukasaun durante okupasaun indonézia nian


Maski edukasaun iha tempu Indonézia uza nafatin métodu balu ne’ebé violentu no autoritáriu, ninia modelu mak diferente liu ho objetivu mós diferente. Objetivu dahuluk ba edukasaun iha tempu Indonézia mak konvense Timoroan sira katak sira mak ema Indonézia. Polítika koloniál portugés nian mak atu hanorin ba grupu elite ki’ikoan de’it, maibé polítika Indonézia nian mak atu harii eskola iha territóriu tomak atu implementa polítika doutrinasaun ba ema hotu.

Hanesan Portugál, Indonézia mós la hanorin Timor-Leste nia kultura, istória, jeografia no lian iha eskola; sira-nia objetivu mak impoin identidade nu’udar ema indonézia. Sira-nia slogan “Bahasa menunjukan bangsa”, signifika “Lian nu’udar nasaun nia identidade” hatudu katak sira haree lian hanesan importante tebes iha prosesu harii no hametin sira-nia nasaun. Sira identifika estudante sira ho dezempeñu akadémiku di’ak liu no haruka sira atu estuda iha Jakarta ka fatin seluk hodi serve estrutura polítika ne’ebé iha.

Ema balu mós gosta halo romantizasaun ba eskola Indonézia, dehan sira mak modelu di’ak ba oinsá hanorin lian estranjeira ida-ne’ebé maioria ema la hatene. Dala ruma ema mós gaba Indonézia nia abilidade habelar propaganda nasionalístiku liuhosi eskola sira. Ema balu mós dehan katak maski mensajen sira iha sistema tuan ne’e ladi’ak, ita bele aprende husi métodu sira-ne’ebé harii nasionalízmu no dixiplina di’ak iha estudante sira. Argumentu ida-ne’e parese simu de’it métodu sira anti-demokrátiku, autoritáriu no dala ruma violentu nu’udar maneira aseitavel atu bele prodús membru sosiedade sira-ne’ebé dixiplinadu no patriótiku.

Vicente Sahe no Mau Lear komprende didi’ak katak métodu hanorin mak iha importánsia hanesan ho konteúdu ne’ebé hato’o. Respeitu no dixiplina mak valór xave sira-ne’ebé Fretilin hanorin durante kampaña sira-ne’e: respeitu ba ema ida-ida nia esperiénsia no perspetiva, no mós respeitu ba grupu tomak nia presiza. Dixiplina aprezenta nu’udar foti responsabilidade rasik, halo serbisu maka’as no tuir prinsípiu demokrátiku sira, la’ós tanba ema ameasa ho ai-sanak, maibé tanba komprende katak ne’e mak di’ak liu ba grupu tomak.

Objetivu atuál sira ba edukasaun


Ohin loron ita tenke haksesuk-malu didi’ak no konsidera ho kuidadu objetivu ba edukasaun iha RDTL. Iha nivel ida-idak eskola nian, sei iha objetivu la hanesan. Iha ne’e ita sei foka liu ba kurríkulu ba eskola pre-eskolár no Ensinu Báziku, tanba agora daudaun iha debate kona-ba área ne’e, no nivel ne’e mós reprezenta fundasaun ida ba nivel hotu ba leten.

Konstituisaun RDTL haruka katak estadu tenke oferese eskola ne’ebé gratis no mandatóriu ba Timoroan hotu-hotu, maibé nia la define eskola nia objetivu. Eskola sira tenke fó labarik hotu-hotu kbiit ne’ebé mai hosi literasia, no permite sira sai livre atu espresa sira-nia an. Ita tenke harii komunidade estudante sira-nian iha eskola laran, harii prosesu inkéritu no investigasaun sira-ne’ebé demokrátiku, no hanorin hanoin krítiku, oinsá depende ba an, oinsá aplika abilidade ne’ebé aprende tiha ona atu bele aumenta buat ne’ebé ita hatene no halo kle’an liután no luan liután ita-nia prosesu hanoin no análize.

Polítika lian iha edukasaun


Kona-ba polítika língua, objetivu deside ona iha Konstituisaun Artigu 13 hatete nune’e:
   “1. Tetun no portugés mak lian ofisiál ba RDTL.
     2. Tetun no lian nasionál selu-seluk tan sei simu valór no hetan dezenvolvimentu husi Estadu.”
Objetivu iha Ensinu Báziku tenke harii baze forte ba estudante sira atu bele komprende lian rua hotu. Mensajen husi kolonializadór sempre katak tetun no lian nasionál sira seluk mak atrazadu no la sivilizadu. Ohin nafatin, ema barak repete arbiru mensajen ne’e, katak tetun la avansadu hanesan portugés no bele impede estudante sira-nia aprendizajen.

Realidade mak lia-tetun uza daudaun hodi hanorin no serbisu mós iha dixiplina tékniku, inklui fízika no jeolojia to’o nivel universidade. Institutu Nasionál Linguístika elabora ona métodu klaru atubele adapta naran liafuan husi portugés ba tetun, ne’ebé fó dalan fasil no naturál atubele empresta naran termu modernu no tékniku no aproveita nafatin gramátika no estrutura ne’ebé koñesidu ba estudante sira. Bele utiliza lian sira hotu atu deskreve observasaun no ideia husi ema ne’ebé ko’alia lian sira-ne’e. La eziste medida sientífika ka linguístika ne’ebé bele sura se lian ida mak ‘atrazadu’ ka ‘modernu’.

Autór Afrikanu Ngugi wa Thiong’o iha ninia livru Decolonizing the Mind (Deskolonializa ita-nia Kakutak), deskreve lian kolonializadór nian hanesan ‘bomba kulturál’ – imperializmu nia ferramenta – no mós arma poderozu ida ba rezisténsia ba povu ne’ebé hetan kolonializasaun. “Efeitu husi bomba kulturál mak estraga mohu povu sira-nia konfiansa iha sira-nia naran rasik, sira-nia lian rasik, sira-nia ambiente rasik, sira-nia liman-rohan luta nian, sira-nia unidade, sira-nia kapasidade, no ikusliu sira-nia an rasik.”[5]

Thiong’o hakerek katak objetivu husi edukasaun modernu tenke deskolonializa ema nia kakutak, no fatin di’ak atu hahú mak restaurasaun ba relasaun entre dezenvolvimentu kakutak no meiu-ambiente iha uma no komunidade lokál. Meta prinsipál ba edukasaun modernu iha nasaun demokrátiku ida tenkesér atu serve ema hotu-hotu, atu asegura katak labarik ida-idak bele atinje susesu báziku iha eskola, la’ós grupu elite ki’ikoan de’it, no mós atu harii abilidade oioin ba partisipasaun demokrátika, la’ós ema ne’ebé prontu atu tuir de’it hanesan bibi-malae. Nune’e, bele uza lian, inklui mós lian husi nasaun koloniál ne’ebé uluk kontrola povu ida, atu fó kbiit ba ema.

Kurríkulu 2015 nian ba Siklu da-1 no 2 hosi Ensinu Báziku iha Timor-Leste uza lia-tetun nu’udar lian dahuluk ba literasia, no mós permite atu uza lian lokál sira seluk, ho oral de’it, bainhira estudante sira la komprende tetun ka portugés. Hanesan Fretilin nia kampaña literasia iha 1974-75, estudante sira aprende relasaun entre letra no lian (dekodifikasaun), no depois sira konsidera liafuan sira-nia signifikadu no ligasaun ho sira-nia moris no presiza. Tuir Sensu 2015:
  • 30% hosi labarik sira ho idade 5-9 ko’alia tetun prasa nu’udar lian dahuluk;
  • 0,08% (menus 1/10 hosi 1%) hosi sira ko’alia portugés nu’udar lian dahuluk;
  • 80% hosi ema ne’ebé hela iha Timor-Leste mak ko’alia tetun prasa nu’udar lian dahuluk, daruak ka datoluk
  • 5.4% ko’alia lia-portugés nu’udar lian dahuluk, daruak ka datoluk.
Uza tetun signifika katak estudante barak liu sei hetan susesu, no mós katak sira-nia inan-aman bele mós envolve iha sira-nia edukasaun, katak sira bele espresa an ho di’ak. Hahú ho tetun mós asegura katak labarik barak liu sei iha baze linguístiku ne’ebé sira presiza atu aprende fali portugés ho di’ak.[6]

Modelu ba dixiplina demokrátiku no anti-violénsia iha eskola eziste, no uza daudaun iha eskola barak, tanba inisiativu sira hanesan Eskola sira Amigaveis ba Labarik (Eskola Foun) no Kurríkulu 2015 nian. Bainhira estudante sira envolve rasik iha prosesu halo regra ba sira-nia sala aula nian, sira baibain foti duni responsabilidade atu halo tuir regra sira-ne’e. Bainhira atividade sala aula nian mak interesante no oioin, problema dixiplina baibain menus. Bainhira konsekuénsia ka kastigu ba hahalok ladi’ak mak koko atu resolve no responde ho razaun ba hahalok refere, nune’e bele hanorin lisaun importante, la’ós estraga relasaun entre estudante no manorin, ka aumenta labarik ne’ebé husik eskola.

Ita-nia eskola sira bele sai demokrátika no mós dixiplinadu. Sira bele fó kbiit ba labarik ida-idak atu atinje sira-nia posibilidade, no iha tempu hanesan hanorin labarik ida-idak atu serbisu iha grupu laran no fó valór ba meta no serbisu koletivu. Objetivu atuál ba eskola nafatin hanesan Sahe no Mau Lear nian: libertasaun husi ideia no prátika ne’ebé halo opresaun no diskriminasaun, asegura katak esplorasaun la mosu fali, no harii kbiit liuhosi aumenta abilidade iha komunikasaun, hanoin krítiku no asaun koletivu. Ohin ita-nia objetivu tenke mós inklui dezenvolve abilidade linguístiku ba sosiedade ho lian oioin, hodi harii fundasaun metin ba peskiza ne’ebé efetivu, análise, inovasaun, dezenvolvimentu no abilidade atu halo teoria sai fali prátika, katak atu aplika ema nia matenek hodi rezolve dezafiu ne’ebé mosu duni iha ita-nia moris loroloron.

25 March 2018

The Timor-Leste-Australia Maritime Boundary Treaty

Timor-Leste won a great victory on 6 March, when Australia and Timor-Leste signed the Treaty Establishing Their Maritime Boundaries in the Timor Sea. After decades of occupation and struggle, the Australian government finally accepted its northern neighbor’s sovereign right to a border based on current international law. La’o Hamutuk has published a comprehensive article (also PDF) on the new agreement, which this blog summarizes.

Australia had prevented Timor-Leste from settling their common boundary since before the restoration of independence. From 2000 to 2013, Timor-Leste’s leaders conceded to Canberra’s stubbornness by signing agreements to enable oil and gas production – the young nation’s principal source of money. However, many felt that the struggle for national independence was incomplete without defined boundaries. In 2004, Timor-Leste civil society formed the Movement Against the Occupation of the Timor Sea (MKOTT) and friends in Australia formed the Timor Sea Justice Campaign, with support from activists around the world. Five years ago, Timor-Leste’s government has added its diplomacy to the people’s struggle.

The black line on the map represents the 1972 Australia-Indonesia seabed boundary treaty, which remains in force. The yellow area is the Joint Petroleum Development Area (JPDA), which was divided 50-50 between Indonesia and Australia from 1991 to 1999, and 90-10 between Timor-Leste and Australia since 2002. Under the Boundary Treaty nearly all of it belongs 100% to Timor-Leste, although Australia will not pay back the $2.4 billion it has taken in from this area.

The light green and pink is the “Sunrise Unitized Area”.  Under the 2002 Timor Sea Treaty, Timor-Leste was to get 18% of Sunrise upstream revenues; this was increased to 50% in 2007, and to 70% or 80% (depending on where the pipeline goes) by the new Boundary Treaty.

Conciliation leads to compromise

Australia withdrew from international maritime boundary dispute resolution processes just before Timor-Leste became independent in 2002. However, they overlooked a never-used mechanism in the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). UNCLOS Article 298 and Annex V describe a compulsory conciliation process through which one nation can bring another into bilateral boundary discussions which are facilitated by “conciliators” appointed by both sides, under United Nations auspices. The conciliators cannot make binding decisions; their role is to encourage the parties to listen to each other.

Timor-Leste initiated this process in April 2016 and, although Australia initially resisted, they accepted it by September. The conciliators started out like marriage counselors, listening to each party’s views and relaying them to the other party, while the two sides sat in separate rooms.

The process took a year and a half, with 13 sessions on four continents. In August 2017, Australia and Timor-Leste agreed on the overall outlines of a boundary and brought in the oil companies to help decide how Greater Sunrise would be developed. Although that question remains unresolved, the Boundary Treaty was signed in March 2018.

The Boundary Treaty is not a legal ruling handed down by a court. It evolved through diplomatic give-and-take, with each government arguing for and compromising on its positions. Although the conciliators facilitated the negotiations and encouraged compliance with international law, all decisions were made by the two governments. The final boundary compromise, shown as purple and white lines on the map, largely reflects Timor-Leste’s median line claim for the southern part, while drawing lines in between the two nations’ claims for the lateral boundaries on both sides. It delineates each country’s seabed and water column areas, although Timor-Leste’s boundaries with Indonesia are still to be negotiated.

Three oil and gas fields have been commercially developed in the JPDA: Elang-Kakatua was shut down in 2007, Kitan closed in 2015, and Bayu-Undan has 2-3 years of production remaining. Many other exploration contracts have been signed and relinquished the JPDA, with 70 test wells drilled over the last three decades, so that there are probably no undiscovered, significant, commercially-viable, oil and gas reserves (other than Greater Sunrise).

All new government revenues from the JPDA will go to Timor-Leste once the treaty is ratified, which could increase Dili's take by about $100 million from Bayu-Undan’s last puddles of oil and gas.

On the western side of the JPDA, the southern part of the (white) lateral boundary is further west than the edge of the JPDA. As a result, the small Buffalo field now belongs to Timor-Leste. Buffalo produced 20 million barrels of oil from 1999 until it shut down in 2005, and Australia will keep those revenues. In 2016, a new contract was signed with a new company which hopes to use modern technology to extract about 30 million more barrels. If they do, Timor-Leste could receive $500 million.

The larger Laminaria-Corallina oil field, which has generated more than $2 billion for Australia and is nearing the end of its productive life, remains in Australian waters.

On the eastern side, the central part of the eastern edge of the JPDA has moved outwards, placing more of Greater Sunrise and the area south of it in Timor-Leste’s waters. For the moment, a (white) line has been drawn through the Sunrise Unitized Area, placing 30% of the field in Australia and 70% in Timor-Leste. As the field is still in both countries, it will be managed jointly; both nations need to agree on how it will be developed. The Treaty and conciliators offered several inducements for Timor-Leste to accept a pipeline from Sunrise to the soon-to-be-idle Darwin LNG plant (which has been processing Bayu-Undan gas), but Dili politicians reject this option.

Both lateral boundaries are provisional. They will be shifted outwards to line up with a future Indonesia-Timor-Leste boundary after Laminaria-Corallina (on the east) and Sunrise (on the west) have finished their productive lives.

Governance agreements and Greater Sunrise

The new Treaty re-authorizes the “Designated Authority” (DA), currently the National Petroleum and Minerals Authority (ANPM). This regulatory body signs contracts and oversees petroleum operations in Timor-Leste and jointly administered land and sea territory, as well as encouraging further development.

Because the Sunrise Unitized Area is still under bi-national oversight, the DA’s work there is overseen by a “Governance Board” (GB) which will rule on “Strategic Issues” relating to the Sunrise project, making decisions by consensus.  If the GB cannot agree, the DA or the Sunrise contractors may use a Dispute Resolution Committee (DRC) consisting of one representative of each country and a third member chosen by the other two.

Under the new Treaty, the four 2003 Greater Sunrise contracts will be replaced by a single one between the Designated Authority and the Sunrise Joint Venture (Woodside, ConocoPhillips, Shell and Osaka Gas). La’o Hamutuk hopes that it, as well as new contracts for Buffalo, Kitan and Bayu-Undan will comply with transparency requirements in Timor-Leste law.

The parties were unable to agree on a Sunrise Development Concept (including the location of the pipeline and LNG plant) before the Boundary Treaty was signed. Annex B of the Treaty defines a Special Regime for Greater Sunrise, referring to “the approved Development Concept,” but does not say how it is to be approved. It presumably needs the consent of both governments and the Sunrise Joint Venture.

In 2008, La’o Hamutuk wrote Sunrise LNG in Timor-Leste: Dreams, Realities and Challenges, most of which  is still accurate.  A detailed assessment of whether it would be good for Timor-Leste to pipe Sunrise gas to Beaçu is beyond the scope of this article. The currently politicized controversy, with accusations and disinformation, does not encourage rational discussion.

Regardless of how Sunrise is developed, La’o Hamutuk worries that exaggerated promises of vast economic benefits may distract from the urgent need to diversify Timor-Leste’s economy away from oil and gas.

Before a Sunrise decision is made, Timor-Leste needs to objectively weigh the financial, economic, environmental and social benefits, costs and risks. Although many studies have been done, none of the published ones we have seen provide accurate and unbiased analysis. Sunrise should be developed to serve the interests of the people of this country, rather than a particular oil company, political faction or region.

According to the most optimistic credible projections, Sunrise can finance Timor-Leste for less than one generation. We owe it to our children and grandchildren to think further ahead, and not to be swayed by emotional, partisan or personal considerations.

What happens now?

Closed-door discussions will continue on the Sunrise Development Concept, and the transitional arrangements for the Bayu-Undan and Kitan contracts will be implemented.

Before the Boundary Treaty becomes legally effective, it must be ratified by both countries. Until then, Australia will continue to receive 10% of Bayu-Undan revenues (about $4 million per month).

Timor-Leste’s next Council of Ministers and newly-elected National Parliament can probably ratify the Treaty by September, and we encourage consultation and consistency with Timor-Leste law. Australia’s process may also take six months, and requires a Parliamentary Inquiry. We hope that there will be no unnecessary delays.

Timor-Leste will resume negotiating its maritime boundary with Indonesia this year, and it should be easier than with Australia. Once this is settled, Australia and Indonesia will be able to amend and ratify their draft 1997 Water Column Boundary Treaty.

However, nothing in the new Australia-Timor-Leste Boundary Treaty disturbs the Australia-Indonesia Seabed Treaty which has been in effect for 46 years. Although some in Indonesia feel that the older treaty was unfair, Australia has no obligation to renegotiate it.

The new Boundary Treaty says that Timor-Leste shall not “have a claim for compensation” for money already collected by Australia, around five billion dollars. However, the Treaty cites “good neighbors and in a spirit of cooperation and friendship … in order to achieve an equitable solution.” In this new climate of mutual respect, Australia should return what it took during the nearly 30 years that it profited from supporting Indonesia’s brutal and illegal occupation of this country.

22 March 2018

Depois tinan 18: Presiza atu husik Dolar Amerika?


Iha 29 Janeiru 2018, Institute of Business (IOB) organiza seminar nasionál ida ho Títulu Bele ka lae Timor-Leste iha moeda rasik? Perspectiva no desafius? ne’ebé reprezentante governu, akadémiku no sosiedade sivíl sira fahe sira nia hanoin kona-ba posibilidade ba Timor-Leste atu implementa nia moeda rasik. Juvinal Dias hosi La’o Hamutuk fó apresentasaun ida hamutuk ho panelista sira seluk hanesan Ministru Finansa Rui Gomes, Banku Central Timor-Leste nia Diretór da Divisão de Estudos Económicos e Estatísticos Gastão de Sousa, Profesór Brett Inder hosi Universidade Monash. Kliik iha kada naran atu bele download sira nia apresentasaun.

Artigu tuir mai ne’e refleta ba apresentasaun La’o Hamutuk nian.

Iha 2000, bainhira Administrasaun Tranzisaun ONU nian (UNTAET) administra Timor-Leste, UNTAET, FMI no lider Timor oan sira balu fó rekomendasaun atu halo dolarizasaun. Iha tempu ne’ebá, moeda balu sirkula hela iha ekonomia Timor-Leste. Indonesia nia rupiah sirkula maka’as iha merkadu no area rural sira, dolar Australia sirkula iha negósiu sira ne’ebé nia na’in sira mai hosi rai li’ur, funsionáriu sira hosi ajénsia ONU nian ne’e selu ho dolar Amerika, no Timor oan balu simu sira nia pensaun ho escudo Portuguese nian. Tanba laiha fasilidade ofisiál ne’ebé eziste atu troka moeda sira, nune’e, kámbiu ka prosesu troka moeda nian tomak iha tempu ne’ebá esensialmente tuir “merkadu ilísitu ka pasar gelap,” ne’ebé nia presu la konsistente ho merkadu loloos nian.

Administrasaun tranzisaun hili dolar Amerika ho razaun lubuk. Rupiah Indonézia la estavel, tanba nia valor monu maka’as iha krize monetariu 1997-1998 no kontinua tun sae iha tinan sira tuir. Portuguese nia escudo la uza ona iha Portugal no agora troka ona ho euro. FMI no instituisaun sira seluk dudu atu halo dollarizasaun hodi koko halo ekonomia Timor-Leste nian sai estavel liu, liu hosi previsibilidade presu, regula kámbiu no hamenus konfiansa ema nian ba merkadu ilísitu. Dolar Amerika uza ona hosi UNTAET, relativamente estavel iha merkadu global, tanba hetan apoiu hosi ekonomia ida ne’ebé forte, no nudár moeda referénsia ba presu mina-rai mundiál.

Benefísiu sira bainhira uza dolar Amerika

Estabilidade presu hosi kámbiu internasionál nian

Valor hosi moeda foun dala barak tun sae bainhira merkadu global koko atu determina sira nia valor relativu ba moeda sira seluk. Valor moeda ne’e bazeia ba istória kréditu ne’ebé eziste, desizaun ba polítika monetariu tempu naruk no dezempeñu ekonómiku nian. Moeda foun sira seidauk hetan teste kona ba sira nia resposta sira ba kondisaun ekonómiku sira ne’ebé diferente, no, nune’e susar atu determina valor kámbiu nian ne’ebé apropriadu iha tempu badak nia laran.

Iha Timor-Leste nia kazu, instituisaun nasionál sira seidauk provadu katak sira bele reziste ba tentasaun hodi prodús osan barak liu tan bainhira ekonomia nasaun iha periodu difisil nia laran. Ita nia moeda bele sai estavel liu tan ba tempu naruk, bainhira Banku Sentrál estabelese polítika rejistu ida ne’ebé di’ak, maibé to iha valor ne’ebé atu fluktua.

Estrutura instituisaun foun

Obstákulu ida ne’ebé dala barak nasaun sira ne’ebé foin hetan nia independénsia enfrenta mak sira nia instituisaun sira seidauk iha esperiénsia. Risku boot hosi obstákulu ne’ebé mak instituisaun sira ne’e dala barak hili dalan potensiál hodi uza koreksaun ne’ebé baratu no lalais ba sira nia ekonomia – hanesan prodús osan atu hamenus defisit orsamentál ka fó kréditu ba banku sira – ne’ebé bele iha impaktu sira ne’ebé bele kria inflasaun ka muda valor kámbiu iha futuru.

Dolar Amerika bele proteje nasaun sira hosi krize makroekonomiku sira hanesan hiperinflasaun, ne’ebé bele mosu mai hosi desizaun ba polítika monetariu ne’ebé perigozu, hanesan labele kontrola produsaun osan. Nasaun balu hetan ona hiperinflasaun, hanesan Venezuela no Zimbabwe, ne’ebé bainhira enfrenta ona obstákulu sira hanesan ne’e, susar ba sira atu ultrapasa hodi iha kreximentu ekonómiku tanba sira nia moeda nia valor menus ba bei-beik. Iha situasaun sira hanesan ne’e, presu ba importasaun haksoit sae, no presu ba sasán sira ne’ebé prodús iha rai laran la bele predikte ona, investidór sira sei sai ba rai seluk, no sidadaun sira labele rai sira nia osan tanba sira nia valor osan sei monu tun lor-loron.

Seguransa ba investidór rai li’ur no domestiku

Moeda ne’ebé relativamente estavel sei halo investidór sira iha konfiansa katak sira nia valor investimentu sei prezerva ba tinan naruk.

Investor sira fó konfiansa valor dolar Amerika, no nune’e, daudauk ne’e investor sira konfia katak sira nia valor investimentu iha Timor-Leste ba tinan oin mai sei la diferente boot kompara ho valor investimentu iha tinan ida ne’e. Heineken lista dollar Amerika nudár atrasoens prinsipál ida entre sira seluk ne’ebé lori sira hodi loke sira nia fábrika iha Timor-Leste. Pelu menus ba kurtu prazu, moeda nasionál Timor nian sei la enkoraja investimentu iha Timor-Leste tanba sei halo investimentu sira ne’e relativamente risku liu.

Merkadorias lubuk mak sosa no fan ho dolar Amerika

Timor-Leste iha merkadorias boot rua ne’ebé esporta, mak petrolíferu no kafé, buat rua ne’e fan iha merkadu global ho dolar Amerika. Nune’e, uza dolar Amerika parsialmente ajuda Timor-Leste nia ekonomia hosi ameasa hosi flutuasaun presu merkadorias nian.

Impaktu hosi presu mina-rai ne’ebé monu iha 2014 ba Timor-Leste nia ekonomia nudár lisaun ida atu aprende tanba nasaun ne’e uza dolar Amerika. Durante tempu ne’ebá, dollar amérika nia valor boot liu kompara ho Rupiah no moeda seluk, nune’e hamenus tiha kustu hosi importasaun sasán. Nia rezultadu mak Timor-Leste nia inflasaun monu hosi 12% iha 2013 ba besik atu zero iha tinan 2014. Maske Estadu simu osan menus hosi nia esportasaun petrolíferu, maibé presu ne’ebé ema selu ba sasán sira la sae ona.

Dezafiu sira bainhira uza dolar Amerika

Lakon kontrolu ba polítika monetariu

Polítika monetariu nudár instrumentu ida ne’ebé banku sentrál uza hodi responde ba situasaun ekonómiku ne’ebé diferente liu hosi ajusta nasaun nia fornesimentu osan ka taxa de juros nian. Tanba uza dolar Amerika, Timor-Leste husik tiha nia podér atu halo desizaun ba polítika monetariu nian. Se lae, Banku Sentrál bele uza instrumentu sira ne’e hodi bele estabiliza ekonomia no ajuda nasaun hodi rekupera hosi xoke sira hosi externa.

Bainhira iha xoke balu ba ekonomia, Banku Sentrál bele devalua nia moeda atu halo esportasaun sira sai kompetitivu liu, nune’e, bele kompensa ba lakon sira ne’ebé mai hosi xoke.

Ezemplu mak: kafé nudár Timor-Leste nia export naun petrolíferu ida ne’ebé boot liu. Produsaun kafé bele hetan impaktu negativu hosi xoke sira hosi externa hanesan kondisaun klima ne’ebé ladi’ak ka moras ai-horis nian ne’ebé da’et ba plantasaun
lubuk. Iha kazu hanesan ne’e, Banku Sentrál bele uza nia polítika monetariu hodi devalua nia moeda, nune’e halo sasán sira ne’ebé prodús iha rai laran bele relativamente baratu ba konsumidór sira hosi rai li’ur. Nune’e, aumenta fan ba sasán esportasaun seluk bele kompensa valor ne’ebé tun hosi fan kafé nian. Maske nune’e, importante atu nota katak daudauk ne’e, Timor-Leste seidauk bele hetan benefísiu barak hosi uza tipu instrumentu polítika monetariu hanesan ne’e tanba ita seidauk iha produtu esportasaun barak.

Obstákulu ba diversifikasaun

Valor moeda nasionál Timor-Leste nian bele sai fraku liu kompara ho dolar Amerika, hodi halo importasaun sasán sira sai karun liu no produtu lokál sira relativamente baratu bainhira halo komparasaun. Produtu lokál sira bele kompete ho sasán importasaun ne’ebé karun liu iha merkadu doméstika. Tuir mai, produtór lokál sira sei fan sira nia produtu barak, hadi’ak sira nia produtividade no aumenta sira nia produsaun ba tempu naruk. Bainhira produsaun no produtividade aumenta, produtu Timor-Leste nian sei sai kompetitivu liu iha eskala global ida, nune’e bele haluan liu esportasaun naun petrolíferu nian. Ida ne’e bele sai instrumentu ida atu ajuda Timor-Leste hodi diversifika nia ekonomia no enkoraja kreximentu iha setór naun petrolíferu iha futuru.

Valor as hosi dolar Amerika nudár parte ida hosi esplikasaun kona-ba ba dependénsia Timor-Leste nian ba importasaun, tanba fó dalan ba Timor-Leste hodi importa sasán sira ho presu ida ne’ebé baratu  liu kompara ho sasán sira ne’ebé produtór doméstiku sira prodús hodi kompete ba. Troka sasán importasaun balu ho sasán sira ne’ebé prodús iha rai laran bele hahú ona hodi taka tiha diferensa entre sasán importasaun no sasán esportasaun naun petrolíferu nian, ne’ebé sei sai nudár pasu importante ida ba sustentabilidade ekonómiku bainhira produsaun mina-rai hotu ona no bainhira Fundu Petrolíferu hotu iha dékada balu oin mai.

Timor-Leste prontu ona ka lae?


Oradór sira hotu iha seminar IOB nian, inklui La’o Hamutuk, konkorda katak sedu liu ba Timor-Leste atu implementa nia moeda nasionál ida. Timor-Leste sei implementa nia moeda nasionál ida iha futuru, maibé tenke hahú ho dezenvolve nia setór ekonomia naun petrolíferu sira, ne’ebé inklui agrikultura, turizmu no indústria ki’ik sira. Tanba bainhira implementa moeda nasionál agora, ida ne’e sei hadalan ita hodi aumenta presu ba sasán importasaun sira, nune’e bele hafraku kapasidade ema nian atu sosa sasán bainhira iha tempu ne’ebé hanesan produtu doméstika nian kontinua menus. Aleinde ne’e, polítika monetariu ne’e sei la sai instrumentu polítika ida ne’ebé efikás bainhira ita labele ajusta ho setór esportasaun barak ne’ebé diferente.

Setór produtivu sira hosi PIB (Produtu Interna Bruto) - naun petrolíferu sira mak agrikultura no fabrikasaun, ne’ebé estagnada dezde 2003. Despeza governu nian mak lori besik kreximentu tomak iha PIB naun petrolíferu, no despeza ida ne’e sei tun iha tinan sira oin mai bainhira rendimentu petrolíferu nian hotu ona no saldu Fundu Petrolíferu nian tun.

Hafoin setór produtivu sira, hosi naun petrolíferu kontribui maka’as ona ba ekonomia, entaun Timor-Leste bele konsidera ona atu iha nia moeda nasionál rasik.

Rekomendasaun balu ba tempu ohin nian

La’o Hamutuk rekomenda katak ukun na’in sira presiza foti nesesidade ne’ebé sériu liu atu diversifika ekonomia. Ita iha faze urjente atu iha polítika sira ne’ebé proativu liu hodi nune’e bele enkoraja kreximentu sustentável hosi setór produtivu sira hosi naun petrolíferu.

Dalan ida ne’ebé nasaun sira bele hili atu aumenta sira nia produsaun lokál no gradualmente substitui importasaun ho nia produtu lokál mak introduz kombinasaun ida hosi aplika tarefa ba importasaun no introduz subsídiu governu nian ba setór tarjetu sira. Polítika hirak ne’e bele proteje ita nia indústria doméstika tanba bele dezenvolve kapasidade rai laran ho produtu sira ne’ebé importa mai. Ba tinan naruk nian, bainhira produsaun lokál aumenta buras, Timor-Leste sei bele hakotu aplikasaun tarefa no subsídiu sira ne’e, nudár rekezitu ida ne’ebé presiza atu kumpre hosi rekizitus sira ne’ebé merkadu livre ASEAN nian promove.

Povu Timor-Leste atinje ona sira nia soberania nasionál hafoin luta no sakrifisiu iha tinan barak nia laran, no atu iha nia moeda nasionál rasik, ita bele hare nudár benefísiu ida hosi vitória ukun rasik an nian. Maske nune’e, ita presiza atu asegura katak moeda ne’e rasik mós tenke materialmente fó benefísiu ba povu iha nasaun ida ne’e, espesialmente sira barak ne’ebé seidauk goza benefísiu ekonómiku hosi independénsia ida ne’e.