The potential, challenges and risks of developing the blue economy in Timor-Leste

Liga ba artigu ida ne'e iha Tetum

On 2 March 2023, the Ministry of Tourism, Commerce and Industry (MTCI), together with the development partner UNDP, organized a round-table discussion on entrepreneurship linked to the blue economy in Timor-Leste. For almost 20 years, the country's economy has depended on money from oil and gas, and Timor-Leste will face a fiscal cliff as a result of this dependency. Therefore, we must plan well to diversify the economy to create new sources of income to replace the dependence on oil and gas revenue.

In many coastal countries, the concept of a blue economy has become a focus of intervention by development partners, international agencies, and the government itself. "Blue economy" refers to using or taking advantage of marine resources, and at the same time ensuring the sustainability of the resources. La'o Hamutuk believes that it is important to provide an introduction to this idea, including its relevance for Timor-Leste, opportunities and risks, to help Timor-Leste decide on the fairest and most sustainable way to develop our blue economy.

Potential, Risks and Challenges

International agencies have identified activities that could be the base of a future blue economy. According to UNDP, fishing, maritime transport and tourism are activities that are already happening, but are not yet optimal. The blue economy brings opportunities to strengthen and diversify our economy, but we must be careful and take into account the possibilities and weaknesses in implementation, including all obstacles to ensuring environmental sustainability, and the empowerment of local communities.

In 2017 the Government, through the Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries (MAP) and with support from development partners, developed the National Ocean Policy, but it has not yet been passed. Timor-Leste needs a legal framework to protect all of our resources in the sea and the Ocean, including communities that depend on the sea to sustain their lives. Recently, La'o Hamutuk observed that the implementation of new policies and initiatives in Timor-Leste will face major challenges due to lack of coordination of services; if efforts are made to develop the blue economy, but the Ocean Policy has not been implemented well, we will confront problems in the future. Therefore, a strong legal and policy regime must be established before the blue economy is developed. 

We should be careful to avoid high-risk activities that a blue economy could bring to Timor-Leste. For example, in India, the Government promotes deep seabed mining as an aspect of their plan to strengthen the blue economy. Therefore, we must be cautious about exploiting undersea minerals, an activity that could pose a great risk to the marine environment if it is done without thorough understanding of the risks and impacts. There is no evidence that Timor-Leste's maritime territory has the potential for such activities, but we can learn from India’s experience that developing a blue economy can also open the way to unsustainable activities, posing serious risks to the environment and to marine ecology.

In other places, observers have noted that the potential and efforts to promote the blue economy which prioritizes a "market solution" could reduce the role and rights of communities who have long used the sea for their lives (such as small-scale fishers). The UNDP study mentioned above also discussed the possibility of selling carbon credits from Timor-Leste’s sea. Such activities, when incorporating natural resources into the private market, must consider the perspectives of climate justice, community rights, and sustainability. Therefore, Timor-Leste needs to carefully evaluate any proposal for these activities. We should not simply believe and accept that the beautiful term "blue economy" automatically means that everything is good and positive, but we must be careful and learn from the experiences of other nations.

How can we avoid risk and use our potential effectively?

The development of a blue economy should be in line with principles of sustainability and blue justice. The sea is common property, in that everyone can access it freely, and it is different from dry land. The sea has a large potential and has a variety of resources and biodiversity that can be developed to be economically productive. It should be developed in the context of the nation in a way that respects cultural, social and inclusive economic aspects, including integrating community participation in maritime governance.

The concept of blue justice arose in response to the concept of the blue economy itself. We have observed that efforts to develop a blue economy often give priority to the private sector and large fishing companies, rather than prioritizing communities which have long used, managed and depended on coastal and maritime resources for their lives and livelihoods. In addressing the blue economy, a perspective of blue justice can help the Government and the community make wise, fair, and sustainable decisions.

Conclusion

For Timor-Leste to plan well to develop the blue economy, fairly and sustainably, we need deep understanding of the various proposals and interests, when performing these activities. We should not just believe that the pretty name "blue economy" means everything is good and positive, but we must learn from the experiences of other countries. In the future, Timor-Leste should have a national maritime legal and policy regime (Ocean Policy) to ensure, protect, maintain, and restore coastal and ocean resources to support a sustainable economy according to our people’s social and cultural values, in a fair and equitable way.

The State must strengthen its management of ongoing activities, such as the maritime transport system, fishing (which is not yet going well), in order to improve and strengthen communities that have already undertaken small activities, such as producing edible seaweed, harvesting fish, shellfish, crabs and so on, before the start of new activities called the Blue Economy.

Poténsia, dezafiu no risku dezenvolvimentu Ekonomia Azúl iha Timor-Leste

 Link to this blog in English

Iha dia 2 de Marsu 2023, Ministériu do Turizmu, Komérsiu e Indústria (MTCI) hamutuk ho parseiru dezenvolvimentu UNDP organiza diskusaun mesa redonda kona ba emprendedorismu liga ho ekonomia azúl iha Timor-Leste. Besik tinan 20 ona ekonomia nasaun nian depende maka’as ba fundu husi mina no gas, no Timor-Leste sei hasoru rai naruk fiskál nudár rezultadu husi dependénsia ne’e. Tanba ne’e, tenke iha planu didi’ak kona ba diversifikasaun ekonomia atu hamosu fontes rendimentu foun hodi substitui dependénsia ba fundu mina no gas. 

Iha nasaun kosteiru barak, konseitu ekonomia azúl sai ona fokus intervensaun husi parseiru dezenvolvimentu, ajénsia internasionál, no Governu rasik. Konseitu ekonomia azúl refere ba prosesu atu uza ka aproveita rekursu tasi nian, no iha tempu hanesan asegura sustentabilidade rekursu refere. La’o Hamutuk konsidera importante atu fornese introdusaun ba ideia ida ne’e, inklui relevánsia ba Timor-Leste, oportunidade inklui risku sira, hodi ajuda Timor-Leste atu deside oinsá mak meius justu no sustentavel liu atu dezenvolve ekonomia azúl.

Potensiál, risku no dezafiu

Ajénsia internasionál identifika ona atividade balun ne’ebé iha posibilidade atu sai baze ekonomia azúl iha futuru. Tuir UNDP, peska, transportasaun maritima, no turizmu, nudár atividade ne’ebé la’o ona maibé seidauk la’o ho optimál.  Ekonomia azúl hatudu oportunidade atu hametin no diversifika ita nia ekonomia, maibé ita tenke kuidadu no konsidera mós poténsia no frakeza iha implementasaun, inklui obstákulu hotu atu asegura sustentabilidade ambientál no empoderamentu komunidade lokál sira.

Iha tinan 2017 Governu liu husi MAP (Ministériu Agrikultura no Peska) no apoiu husi parseiru dezenvolvimentu sira, elabora ona Polítika Nasional Oseanu maibé to’o agora seidauk konsege pasa. Timor-Leste tenke iha Rejime legál atu proteje ita nia rekursu hotu iha tasi no oseanu inklui protégé komunidade sira ne’ebé depende maka’as ba tasi hodi sustenta sira nia moris. Kleur ona, La’o Hamutuk observa katak, implementasaun polítika no inisiativu foun iha Timor-Leste sei hasoru dezafiu boot tanba koordenasaun servisu menus; se esforsu duni atu dezenvolve ekonomia azúl, maibé Polítika Oseanu seidauk konsege implementa ho di’ak, ita sei hasoru dezafiu boot ba oin. Tanba ne’e tenke iha rejime legal no polítika ne’ebé forte antes hahú dezenvolve ekonomia azúl.

Ita tenke kuidadu no presiza prevene atividade sira ho risku maka’as ne’ebé sei tama iha Timor-Leste ho razaun ekonomia azúl. Ezemplu iha India, governu promove atividade minerais iha tasi nia okos (deep seabed mining) nudár aspetu ida husi planu hametin ekonomia azúl. Entaun, esplorasaun minerais iha tasi nia okos, nudár atividade ne’ebé bele fó risku boot ba ambiente tasi nian, maske seidauk iha evidénsia kle’an kona ba risku no impaktu sira, maibé tenke kuidadu. Seidauk iha evidénsia katak territóriu maritima Timor-Leste nian iha potensiál atu realiza atividade hanesan ne’e, maibé ita bele aprende husi esperiénsia India nian katak, dezenvolve konseitu ekonomia azúl bele mós loke dalan ba atividade ne’ebé la sustentavel, no bele mós fó risku maka’as ba ambiente no ekolojia iha tasi.

Iha fatin seluk, observadór balun nota ona katak iha poténsia no esforsu atu promove ekonomia azúl ho prioridade ba “solusaun merkadu nian” ida ne’e, bele hamenus knaar no direitu komunidade ne’ebé kleur ona uza tasi ba sira nia moris (hanesan peskadór skala ki’ik nsst).  Iha estudu husi UNDP ne’ebé temi iha leten, diskute mós posibilidade atu fa’an karbonu kréditu husi Timor-Leste nia tasi. Atividade hanesan ne’e, bainhira hatama rekursu naturais iha merkadu privadu, tenke konsidera kle’an husi perspetiva justisa klimátika, direitu komunidade, no sustentabilidade.  Tanba ne’e, Timor-Leste presiza konsidera ho kle’an proposta atu hala’o atividade hirak ne’e. Ita, la bele fiar no simu de’it (tolan tomak de’it) konseitu sira ho títulu furak hanesan “ekonomia azúl” katak buat hotu di’ak no pozitivu, maibé tenke kuidadu no tenke aprende esperiénsia nasaun seluk nian.

Oinsá mak atu evita risku no uza poténsia sira ho di’ak?

Dezenvolvimentu ekonomia azúl tenke haktuir prinsípiu sustentabilidade no justisa azúl. Tasi nudár propriedade komún, katak ema hotu bele asesu ho livre no diferente ho rai maran. Tasi iha poténsia boot no iha rekursu no biodiversidade oin-oin ne’ebé bele dezenvolve nudár ekonomia produtivu. Tenke dezenvolve tuir kontextu nasaun nian ne’ebé respeita aspetu kulturál, sosiál no ekonomia inkluzivu inklui integra partisipasaun komunidade iha governasaun tasi. 

Konseitu Justisa Azul mosu nudár resposta atu responde ba konseitu ekonomia azúl rasik. Ho observasaun katak, esforsu hotu hodi dezenvolve ekonomia azúl dala barak setór privadu no kompañia peska boot sira mak hetan prioridade, duke prioritiza komunidade ne’ebé kleur ona uza, jere, no depende maka’as ba rekursu iha tasi no tasi ninin sira ba moris no ekonomia. Hasoru asuntu ekonomia azúl, husi perspetiva justisa azúl bele ajuda Governu no komunidade oinsá foti desizaun ne’ebé matenek, justu, no sustentavel.

Konkluzaun

Bainhira Timor-Leste halo planu no estratéjia atu dezenvolve ekonomia azúl ba oin ho di’ak, prinsipalmente tenke ho maneira ne’ebé justu no sustentavel, no presiza hatene didi’ak proposta no interese oin-oin, bainhira atu hala’o atividade hirak ne’e. Ita, la bele simu ka fiar de’it konseitu sira ho títulu furak hanesan “ekonomia azúl” katak buat hotu di’ak no pozitivu, maibé tenke hatene no aprende esperiénsia nasaun seluk ne’ebé hahú ona. Tuir mai, Timor-Leste tenke iha rejime legal no polítika nasional Tasi nian (Polítika Oseanu) atu asegura, proteje, mantén, no restaura rekursu kosteiru no oseanu hodi sustenta ekonomia ne’ebé sustentavel tuir valor sosiál, kulturál povu nian ho maneira ne’ebé justu no equitavel. 

Governu ou estadu tenke hametin didi’ak jestaun ba atividade ne’ebé la’o hela, hanesan sistema transportasaun maritime, peska ne’ebé seidauk la’o didi’ak oinsá mak bele hadi’ak liu tan no haforsa komunidade hirak ne’ebé halo ona atividade ki’ik sira hanesan prodús budu tasi, hakiak ikan, boek, kadiuk no seluk tan, molok hahú fali atividade foun sira ho naran Ekonomia Azul.

Bele hare aprezentasaun husi La'o Hamutuk iha ne'e.

Semináriu Nasional: Dezenvolvimentu Alternativa Hafoin Mina

La’o Hamutuk hola inisiativa nudár organizasaun sosiedade sivíl ne’ebé mak hala’o nia knaar liu-husi peskiza, analiza, advokasia no tau matan ba polítika estadu no polítika husi instituisaun internasionál sira liga ho prosesu dezenvolvimentu iha Timor-Leste. Daudaun ne’e La’o Hamutuk organiza Semináriu Nasional ida iha Dili kona-ba asuntu nasional sira ne’ebé sai preokupasaun públiku liga ba Timor-Leste nia Ekonomia ne’ebé iha tinan barak sei depende ba setór petróleu. Tanba ne’e ita realiza Semináriu Nasional ida, ho nia tópiku “Dezenvolvimentu Alternativa Hafoin Mina”.

Semináriu ne’e hala’o iha loron 25 Abril 2023 iha Salaun Katedrál - Vilaverde, Dili.

Orador sira diskute topiku sira ne'e:

• Dezenvolvimentu Produtivu ba Sustentabilidade Ekonomia husi Sra. Hergui Luina Alves, Empresaria Feto (Prezidente AEMTL) (PowerPoint ka PDF)

• Empoderamentu Komunitáriu ba Dezenvolvimentu Ekonomia husi Sr. Mateus Tilman, Reprezentante Akademia

• Dependénsia ba Fundu Petróleo no Ekonomia Alternativa husi Sra. Eliziaria Febe Gomes, Peskizadóra La'o Hamutuk (PowerPoint ka PDF)

Bele mos hare entervista televizaun ho Febe, artigu iha Neon Metin ka kobertura iha GMN-TV (relatoriu segundu). 

COP27 Conference outcome: Loss and Damage Fund established, but emissions continue unabated

 Liga ba artigu ida ne'e iha Tetum 

The establishment of a Loss and Damage Fund for destruction caused by climate change was a key issue at the recent COP27 conference. Why did this topic emerge, and why are some countries demanding such a fund?

In November, representatives from 140 nations, including Timor-Leste, met at COP27 in Egypt. COP27 was the latest annual UN Conference of Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The conference’s mandate was to decide on processes or mechanisms to respond to the climate crisis. The conference concluded on 20 November with an historical agreement to create a special fund to pay for the impacts of climate-related disasters in developing countries.

Prior to the conference, representatives of some developing countries promoted the idea of a fund to pay for losses and damages. Since COP26 last year, the world has observed increasing impacts from climate change - including floods in Pakistan that killed more than 1,700 people, and floods in Nigeria that displaced more than 1.3 million. Timor-Leste is also being hit by climate change - for example, unstable rain patterns have damaged coffee harvests and many farmers have observed the impact on agricultural cycles. Farmers in Los Palos and Viqueque recently told La’o Hamutuk researchers that rising water levels in rice field was hurting harvests. The impacts we see today will become more serious in the future, as greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise.

At the same time, the UN has observed that wealthy nations that have contributed most to the climate crisis have failed to take sufficient action to limit climate change in the future. As a result it has become nearly impossible to limit climate change to 1.5°C, which means that the impacts of climate change will became extremely severe. Who will be responsible to help the victims?

This is why some countries proposed to create a loss and damage fund at the conference. At last year’s COP26, the US and EU blocked such a fund from being started, replacing it with a ‘dialogue’ without a clear objective. At the COP27 conference, proponents again put the fund on the agenda.

In 2022, the Climate Vulnerable Forum (CVF) published a report on the economic impacts of climate change in 55 highly vulnerable nations (including Timor-Leste), concluding that their GDPs were reduced by 20% over the last two decades because of climate change, leading to a combined loss of $525 billion. Many of the most vulnerable countries do not have adequate resources to deal with these impacts, even though many other nations have gotten wealthy through industries and lifestyles that produce nearly all the atmospheric changes that are causing climate change.

For a long time, the climate movement, including La’o Hamutuk in Timor-Leste, have insisted that the climate crisis needs to be resolved in a way that is just. Climate justice means that wealthy nations which have caused most of the changes in climate should bear the greatest share of responsibility for the impacts experienced by developing countries. It is unjust for developing countries to face a dual crisis, firstly because of the direct impacts of climate change on people and the environment, and secondly from the economic burden of managing or responding to those impacts – widening and reinforcing global inequality.

CVF launched the “Payment Overdue” campaign to raise awareness about this issue. They point out that climate catastrophe has become a permanent reality, and therefore wealthy nations need to pay their debt. Proponents of a Loss and Damage Fund argue that humanity cannot adapt to all of the impacts of climate change, and that many of the countries facing the most serious impacts have not caused the problem. They demand compensation from wealthy nations who have contributed the most to causing the problem, to pay the costs of responding to impacts can we cannot adapt to. Nabeel Munir, Pakistan’s representative to COP27, said that “loss and damage is not charity - it’s justice.” 

In their final agreement, COP27 participants decided to create a Loss and Damage Fund. Important details, such as which countries will be obliged to pay into the fund, will be determined in the future, and it is important for civil society to continue to monitor this process.

Unfortunately, although developing countries won a loss and damages fund, COP27 failed to agree on urgent measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. As La’o Hamutuk has long pointed out, the world cannot continually adapt to ever-worsening conditions. Adaptation programs and a Loss and Damage Fund can help vulnerable people respond to impacts of climate change that are already unavoidable, but there is only one genuine solution to climate change: stopping greenhouse gas emissions. Some high-emissions countries succeeding in removing key parts of the final COP27 agreement, leaving the agreement with no strong obligation for those nations to immediately stop emitting greenhouse gases. 

UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres said that “Our planet is still in the emergency room. We need to drastically reduce emissions now – and this is an issue this COP did not address.” COP27 failed to make progress on lessening the causes of climate change. However, the example of the Loss and Damage Fund demonstrates that developing countries, working together, can force wealthy nations to act. In the future we need to increase pressure on those nations that continue to exacerbate the climate crisis.

Resources from La'o Hamutuk about climate change in English (more Tetum resources here - scroll to end):

• Proposed TL Climate Change Law and background documents (2023)
  
• Presentation: Climate Justice: A View from the South (2021)
  
• Statement to the first TL Conference on Adaptation to Climate Change (2014)
• Action / Declaration: One Hour for Mother Earth (2010)
• Letter: Timor-Leste Should Not Sign Copenhagen Accord (2010)
• Introductory web page: Climate Change and Timor-Leste (2009)

Rezultadu husi COP27: Fundu Indenizasaun sei realiza, maibé emisaun gás estufa sei kontinua nafatin

 Link to this blog in English 

Fundu indenizasaun (Loss and Damage Fund) ba buat ne’ebé lakon ka hetan estragu nudár rezultadu mudansa klimátika sai ona tópiku manas ida iha konferénsia COP27 ne’ebé foin remata. Tanba sá mak asuntu ne’e mosu, no razaun saida mak nasaun balun ezije hela ba fundu espesiál ida?

Iha fulan Novembru, reprezentante husi nasaun 140 liu hasoru malu iha konferénsia COP27 iha nasaun Ejitu. COP27 mak hanesan konferénsia alto nivel Nasoins Unidas nian, no membru ba konferénsia ne’e kompostu husi governu hirak ne’ebé asina no sai ona membru UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change), inklui Timor-Leste. Mandatu husi Konferénsia ne’e atu deside prosesu ka mekanizmu sira atu responde ba krize klimátika. Konferénsia ida ne’e remata iha dia 20 de Novembru ho konkordánsia istóriku ida, atu kria fundu espesiál atu selu kustu impaktu dezastre ne’ebé akontese nudár rezultadu mudansa klimátika iha nasaun sira ne’ebé foin dezenvolve-an.

Molok konferénsia ida ne’e komesa, reprezentante husi nasaun foin dezenvolve-an balun promove ideia indenizasaun ba buat ne’ebé lakon ka hetan estragu. Dezde konferénsia COP26 tinan kotuk, mundu tomak observa duni impaktu maka’as husi mudansa klimátika - inklui inundasaun iha Pakistaun oho liu husi ema na’in 1,700, no inundasaun iha Nigeria ne’ebé dezloka ema na’in 1,300,000. Iha Timor-Leste bele observa nafatin impaktu husi mudansa klimátika iha rai laran - ezemplu ida mak katak udan ne’ebé la tuir tempo fó impaktu ba produsaun kafé no ai-han, no toos na’in barak haree impaktu ba sira nia siklu agríkola. Peskizadór La’o Hamutuk foin lalais ne’e rona husi toos na’in iha Los Palos no Viqueque katak bee sa’e iha natar laran halo produsaun la’o la di’ak. Impaktu ne’ebé ita bele observa hela, se sai aat liu ba iha futuru tanba emisaun gás estufa sa’e nafatin.

Iha tempu hanesan, Nasoins Unidas observa katak nasaun riku sira ne’ebé kontribui maka’as liu ba krize klimátika ida ne’e, falta atu foti asaun nato’on atu limita mudansa klimátika iha futuru. Ho nune’e, kuaze la iha posibilidade katak ita bele limita hamanas iha atmosfera ba grau 1.5°C, entaun impaktu husi mudansa klimátika sei sai grave tebes. Se mak sei responsabiliza atu ajuda vítima sira husi impaktu?

Ho nune’e, nasaun balun hakarak diskute asuntu indenizasaun iha konferénsia ida ne’e. Iha konferénsia COP26 tinan kotuk, EUA no Uniaun Eropa konsege prevene kriasaun fundu indenizasaun, sira konkorda de’it atu hala’o ‘diálogu’ ida la ho objetivu klaru ida. Ba konferénsia ida ne’e, iha esforsu tan atu hatama asuntu ida ne’e ba iha ajenda.

Relatóriu ida husi Climate Vulnerable Forum (CVF) ne’ebé publika tinan ne’e, kona ba impaktu ekonómiku husi mudansa klimátika ba nasaun 55 ne’ebé vulneravel tebes (inklui Timor-Leste), evidénsia hatudu katak impaktu husi mudansa klimátika halakon 20% husi PIB (Produtu Internu Brutu) nasaun sira nian durante dékada rua liu ba. Totálmente, nasaun sira ne’e lakon ona biliaun $525 tanba impaktu mudansa klimátika. Barak husi nasaun vulneravel hirak ne’e, laiha rekursu adekuadu atu hasoru impaktu mudansa klimátika, maske nasaun dezenvolvidu sira nia riku soin liu indústria sira ne’ebé kria emisaun gás estufa barak no kria problema mudansa klimátika ba mundu tomak.

Kleur ona, movimentu ba justisa klimátika iha mundu tomak, inklui mós La’o Hamutuk iha Timor-Leste, ezije katak ita presiza resolve krize mudansa klimátika ho maneira ne’ebé justu. Prinsípiu justisa klimátika nian katak, nasaun riku sira ne’ebé kontribui maka’as liu emisaun no estraga klima, tenke simu responsabilidade maka’as liu no mós responsabiliza impaktu aat ne’ebé nasaun foin dezenvolve-an sira hasoru nudár rezultadu husi mudansa klimátika ne’e. La justu se nasaun foin dezenvolve-an hasoru krize duplu, primeiru tanba impaktu diretamente husi mudansa klimátika ba ema no ambiente, no daruak todan ekonómiku atu selu kustu jere ka resolve impaktu husi mudansa klimátika sira. Tendénsia ida ne’e bele haluan no hametin tan dezigualdade mundiál ba futuru.

CVF lansa kampaña hanaran “Pagamentu Tarde” (Payment Overdue), ne’ebé iha objetivu atu hasa’e koñesimentu kona-ba asuntu ida ne’e; tuir CVF, katástrofe klima sai ona realidade permanente, no nasaun riku sira ne’ebé kria emisaun barak tenke selu sira nia ‘deve’. Proponente sistema indenizasaun haree katak ita la bele adapta aan ba kada impaktu husi mudansa klimátika. Sira observa mós katak nasaun barak ne’ebé hasoru impaktu maka’as husi mudansa klimátika, la halo asaun signifikante ne’ebé kria problema ida ne’e. Sira ezije indenizasaun husi nasaun riku sira, ne’ebé kontribui maka’as ba problema ida ne’e, hodi bele selu kustu responde impaktu sira ne’ebé la bele prevene ka adapta-aan ba. Nabeel Munir, nudár reprezentante Pakistaun nian ba COP27 dehan “indenizasaun la’ós karidade - ne’e justisa.”

Afinál, iha konkordánsia finál husi COP27, partisipante sira konkorda duni atu kria fundu espesiál. Aspetu no detallu importante, hanesan nasaun saida mak sei iha obrigasaun atu kontribui ba fundu ne’e, sei determina iha periodu tuir mai no importante katak sosiedade sivíl bele tau matan nafatin ba negosiasaun ne’e.

Infelizmente, maske nasaun foin dezenvolve-an sira manán Fundu Indenizasaun, husi perspetiva seluk COP27 falta atu hamosu konkordánsia forte kona ba urjénsia atu hamenus emisaun gás estufa. Hanesan La’o Hamutuk kleur ona hatudu, mundu la bele adapta-an ba klima ne’ebé sai nafatin aat liu. Programa adaptasaun no Fundu Indenizasaun bele ajuda populasaun vulneravel atu responde ba impaktu husi mudansa klimátika ne’ebé la bele evita, maibé iha solusaun ida de’it ba mudansa klimátika: hapara emisaun gás estufa. Nasaun balun ho nivel emisaun ne’ebé aas liu konsege halakon liafuan husi konkordánsia finál COP27 nian, ho rezultadu katak la iha obrigasaun forte ba nasaun sira atu hamenus kedas emisaun gás estufa.

Antonio Guterres nudár Sekretáriu Jerál ONU nian, dehan “ita nia planeta sei iha sala emerjénsia hela. Ita presiza tebes atu hamenus emisaun agora - asuntu ida ne’e COP ida ne’e falta atu konsidera.” Ho nune’e, husi perspetiva emisaun, COP27 la oferese solusaun. Maibé ita bele aprende husi ezemplu Fundu Indenizasaun, katak nasaun ki’ik sira bele luta hamutuk atu konvense nasaun boot no riku atu foti asaun ne’ebé nesesáriu. Ba oin ita tenke aumenta presaun ba nasaun sira ne’ebé falta atu hamenus ho loloos sira nia emisaun gás estufa no kontribui maka’as ba krize klima ne’ebé ita hasoru hela.

Le'e informasaun tan husi La'o Hamutuk kona-ba Mudansa Klimatika:

• Proposta Lei Mudansa Klimátika no dokumentu sira (2023)
• Surat Popular: Mudansa klimátika fó risku mai ita hotu no jerasaun tuir mai (2022)
  
• Radio Igualdade: Mudansa Klimátika (2022)
• Aprezentasaun: Mudansa Klimátika: Kauza, Impaktu no Projesaun ba Futuru (2021)
• Aprezentasaun: Justisa Klimátika, Programa Adaptasaun, no Governasaun Klimátiku Internasional (2021)
• Artigu: Hatene Impaktu Husi Atividade Umanu ba Mudansa Klimátika (2020)
  
• Karta aberta: Problema Ambientál no Impaktu Mudansa Klimátika iha Timor-Leste (2020)
  
• Deklarasaun/asaun: Oras ida ba mundu (2010)
  
• Pajina web basiku: Mudansa Klimatika no Timor-Leste (2009)
  
• Karta aberta: Timor-Leste Labele Asina Akordu Copenhagen (2010) 
  

LH Konsidera Proposta Orsamentu Estadu ba 2023 Ignora Realidade Situasaun Finansas Estadu

 Link to this blog in English 

Iha loron 18 Outubru 2022, ONG La’o Hamutuk hato'o submisaun ida  ba Deputadu/a sira iha Parlamentu Nasionál (PN) kona-ba proposta Orsamentu Jeral Estadu (OJE) ba tinan 2023. Ho submisaun ida ne’e, ami hakarak atu kontribui ba avaliasaun no diskusaun kona ba OJE 2023 hodi bele realiza orsamentu ne’ebé sustentável no haktuir nesesidade povu nian.

Debate Parlamentár durante periodu orsamentál kada tinan, tenke sai hanesan oportunidade polítika atu Membru PN, Governu no públiku uza ba avalia, diskute no dezeña planeamentu ne’ebé estratéjiku no nesesáriu hodi hatán ba problema sira ne’ebé Povu no Nasaun enfrenta tinan barak.

Pontu importante sira ne’ebé La’o Hamutuk hato’o liu husi submisaun hanesan tuir mai:

Sustentabilidade

Realidade situasaun finansiamentu estadu iha perigu nia laran, no La’o Hamutuk fó ona avizu iha tinan barak nia laran. Iha proposta OJE 2023, Governu aprezenta senáriu ida hodi prolonga vida util hosi Fundu Petrolíferu ate 2045. Signifika sei iha oportunidade boot ba governu atu diversifika ekonomia hodi adia krize ne’ebé bele mosu bainhira hasoru rai naruk fiskál (fiscal cliff) ne’ebe bainhira Fundu Petrolíferu mamuk ona, bele akontese iha tinan 2034 tuir predisaun Ministeriu Finansas nian. Tuir modelu sustentável liu ida ne’ebé governu aprezenta iha Livru Relatóriu Proposta OJE 2023, atu prolonga Fundu Petrolíferu to’o 2045, presiza redús despeza kada tinan 3% to’o 2034.

Maibé iha tabela balun iha livru OJE hatudu despeza inklui levantamentu Fundu Petrolíferu sei sa’e kada tinan to’o 2027. Nune’e ami hanoin katak maske governu rekoñese nasaun ne’e iha perigu ba monu iha rai naruk fiskal, maibé kontinua la fó importánsia no falta atu responde ba realidade ida ne’e. La iha valór atu diskute de’it modelu sustentável se la implementa.

Ami mós observa katak projesaun jerál ne’ebé Governu konsege fornese la iha konsisténsia, no sujere atu fornese ba PN no públiku projesaun loloos kona ba despeza globál no kustu ba kada program ba tinan haat ba oin, atu ajuda kada Deputadu/a foti desizaun matenek.

Dependénsia ba Petróleu

Iha submisaun ba PN, La’o Hamutuk nota katak agora daudaun Timor-Leste depende de’it ona ba investimentu Fundu Petrolíferu iha merkadu finanseiru internasionál, ne’ebé ita kuaze sofre ka lakon ona biliaun $2 resin iha tinan ne’e. Infelizmente, livru OJE falta atu deskreve ho loos risku sira, no senáriu sira kona ba Fundu Petrolíferu kontinua asume retornu 4.1% ba futuru no falta atu konsidera posibilidade ba retornu investimentu negativu ka ki'ik ba futuru.

Maske iha tinan barak nia laran, Fundu Petrolíferu finansia programa no atividade estadu durante ne’e, maibé infelizmente ita la konsege kaer oportunidade atu harii sistema ekonómiku ida ne’ebé produtivu, sustentável no diversifikadu. Governu kontinua mehi katak reseita indústria mina no gas sei ajuda nasaun ne’e nian ekonomia ba tempu naruk hodi ignora dezenvolve setór produtivu no sustentável. Ho nune’e, ami husu Deputadu/a atu rekoñese katak setór petróleu ho hanoin katak setór ida ne’e sei la resolve problema sira ne’ebé ita hasoru hela no sei falta atu lori benefísiu ba povu.

Transparénsia no Akontabilidade

Transparénsia no akontabilidade tenke kontinua sai prioridade iha governasaun no estadu ida ne’e. Infelizmente, ami observa frakeza balun iha implementasaun transparénsia iha prosesu orsamentál ida ne’e.

Por ezemplu, website hosi Parlamentu Nasionál ne’ebé la funsiona, no kona-ba 'audiénsia públiku‘ ne’ebé iha realidade la loke ba públiku. La’o Hamutuk mós sujere atu mantén pratika di’ak balun ne’ebé liu ona hodi prodús livru proposta OJE iha lingua Tetun no Ingles, la’os Portugés de‘it.

Hanesan sosiedade sivíl, triste tebes katak la hetan oportunidade atu fó testemuña iha audiénsia ne’ebé Komisaun C PN realiza. Ami hanoin katak prosesu orsamentál sai forte liu ho partisipasaun husi sosiedade sivíl, no enkoraja atu PN bele hadi'ak liu tan espasu ba ami no públiku hodi fornese analiza no hariku liu tan idea antes debate ho Governu.

Ministériu Finansas presiza klarifika orsamentu FCLN, no tenke konsidera FCLN re-apropria hosi 2022 ba OJE 2023 atu la halo konfuzaun ba públiku.

Prioridade no Estratéjia

La’o Hamutuk kestiona kapasidade Governu atu realiza medida 275 ho kualidade, konsidera nivel ezekusaun iha pasadu no mós realidade katak tinan oin Membru Governu barak no mós sira nia staff sei ba halo kampaña polítika. Di’ak liu fó prioridade ba programa ne’ebé realistíku tuir kbiit no rekursu umanu ne’ebé iha atu garante duni ezekusaun no kualidade.

Alokasaun ba setór sira ne’ebé liga diretamente ba dezenvolvimentu rekursu umanu (edukasaun, saúde, bee mós no agrikultura) hetan de’it 16% husi OJE tomak. Nune’e ami enkoraja Deputadu/a sira atu diskute ho kle’an ho Governu durante debate orsamentu.

Atu realiza orsamentu ne’ebé efikás, PN bele hametin fali prosesu avaliasaun programa atu asegura iha duni benefísiu ba povu, no atu revee fali alokasaun orsamentu balun ne’ebé seidauk iha evidénsia kona ba benefísiu. 

LH Considers that the Proposed 2023 State Budget Ignores the State’s Actual Financial Situation

 Liga ba artigu ida ne'e iha Tetum 

On 18 October 2022, the NGO La’o Hamutuk sent a submission to the Deputies in National Parliament about the proposed General State Budget for 2023. With this submission, La’o Hamutuk wants to contribute to the debate on the 2023 budget so that it will be more sustainable and responsive to people’s needs.

The annual Parliamentary debate about the budget is an opportunity for Members of Parliament, Government and the public to evaluate, discuss and design plans which are strategic and necessary to address the problems which have confronted our nation for years.

Our submission includes the following main points:

Sustainability

The real situation of state finances is already precarious, as La’o Hamutuk has advised for many years. The Ministry of Finance Report on the proposed 2023 budget presents one scenario to extend the life of the Petroleum Fund until 2045. This would give more time for the government to diversify the economy to delay the crisis which will come when we encounter a fiscal cliff because the Petroleum Fund is used up, which the Ministry of Finance projects will happen in 2034. According to the most sustainable model which maintains the Petroleum Fund until 2045, spending needs to be reduced by 3% every year through 2034. But tables in the budget books show spending, including withdrawals from the Petroleum Fund, increasing every year through 2027 (with no information after that). 

Therefore we think that even though Government knows that we are in danger of falling over a fiscal cliff, it continues not to see it as important, and fails to respond to this reality. There’s no value in discussing a sustainable model if it is not implemented.

We also observe that Government projections are inconsistent and suggest that they provide Parliament and the public with more accurate projections of total spending and the cost of each program for the next four years.

Petroleum Dependency

Timor-Leste now depends mainly on the investment of the Petroleum Fund in international financial markets, where it has lost more than $2 billion already this year. Unfortunately, the budget books fail to describe this risk accurately, and their scenarios about the Petroleum Fund continue to assume future returns of 4.1%/year, while failing to consider the possibility of lower or negative returns. 

Although the Petroleum Fund has financed state programs and activities for many years, unfortunately Timor-Leste's leaders did not use that opportunity to build an economy which is productive, sustainable and diversified. Government continues to dream that revenues from the oil and gas industry will support the economy for the long term, while ignoring the development of sustainable and productive sectors. Therefore, La’o Hamutuk asks the Deputies to recognize that petroleum will not resolve the problems which we confront, and is failing to bring benefits to our people.

Transparency and Accountability

Transparency and accountability should continue to be  priorities for this country. Unfortunately, we see weaknesses in implementing transparency in this budget process.

For example, Parliament’s website does not function, and ‘public’ hearings are not open to the public. We also suggest maintaining past good practices, such as producing budget books in Tetum and English, not only in Portuguese.

As civil society, we were very disappointed not to get the opportunity to testify in a hearing of Parliament Committee C. The budget process is stronger with the participation of civil society, and we encourage Parliament to improve space for us and the public to provide analysis which can further enrich ideas before the debate with the Government.

We also suggest that the Ministry of Finance should clarify the budget of the National Liberation Combatants Fund (FCLN), because the repetition of the appropriation to FCLN in both the 2022 and 2023 budgets causes confusion.

Priority and Strategy

La’o Hamutuk doubts that the Government can carry out the budget's 275 measures with quality, considering past execution levels and that many Government members and staff will be engaged in political campaigns next year. It would be better to prioritize programs which are realistic, according to abilities and human resources, and which can really be delivered with execution and quality.

The sectors directly linked to strengthening human resources – education, health, clean water and agriculture – receive only 16% of the allocations in the entire 2023 budget. Therefore, we encourage the Deputies to discuss this in-depth with the Government during the budget debate.

To create an efficient budget, Parliament should tighten evaluation processes for new programs to ensure that they really benefit the people, and should reassess budget allocations which have not yet proven their benefits.

La’o Hamutuk’s submission made seven specific recommendations to Parliament and Government to improve the 2023 budget and the budgeting process.

Click here for information on the 2023 State Budget, including documents, presentations schedules, analyses and graphics.