20 July 2020

Akontesimentu Ekonomia Global fó impaktu boot ba Timor-Leste

Bele download PDF or link to English version.  Atualiza iha loron 14 no 31 Marsu, Maiu no Jullu; hare iha kraik.
Hahú husi 2015, Timor-Leste nia reseita estadu iha dependénsia ba rendimentu husi investimentu osan ne’ebé rai iha Fundu Petrolíferu, la’ós ona osan husi royalties no taxa husi ekstrasaun no esportasaun mina no gás.

Haree ba kondisaun dependénsia ba investimentu ne’e, La’o Hamutuk deside atu buka hatene oinsá mudansa ekonomia no merkadu finanseiru global sei afeta ba kapasidade no estabilidade finanseira husi governu Timor-Leste nia operasaun sira. Maske ita labele influénsia eventu ida ne’e, ita presiza komprende kona-ba eventu sira ne’e.

Artigu ne’e hanesan analiza prelimináriu kona-ba oinsá mudansa sira ne’ebé foin mosu lalais ne’e – husi 12 Fevreiru too 12 Marsu – fó impaktu ba ita nia Fundu Petrolíferu (FP).

Presu ekidade tun

Merkadu ekidade (asoens / stocks) iha Estadus Unidus no nasaun sira seluk tun kuaze 26% durante loron 30 ikus ne’e. Fundu Petrolíferu iha ekidade ho valór kuaze biliaun $6.6 iha fin 2019.  Tanba ne’e, ita lakon kuaze biliaun $1.7 valór merkadu husi ita nia asoens. Maibé, merkadu sempre iha flutuasaun (tun-sa’e), no ita la presiza fa’an ita nia asoens sira agora. Se situasaun iha merkadu sai di’ak fali (hanesan akontese iha 2019), ita sei lakon osan ki’ik liu, maibé se merkadu kontinua tun (hanesan akontese iha 2008), ita sei lakon osan barak liu tan.

Timor-Leste nia Fundu Petrolíferu mak úniku iha mundu ne’ebé la lakon osan durante krize ekonómiku global iha 2008, tanba ita la investe iha asoens. (Nasaun Noruega lakon kuaze biliaun $90.) Iha 2010, bainhira halo revizaun ba lei Fundu Petrolíferu hodi bele uza Fundu ne’e barak liu ba sosa asoens, La’o Hamutuk husu “Oinsá Governu Timor-Leste bele responde ba preokupasaun publiku no politikus nain sira seluk wainhira ita nia fundu nia kapital sei lakon tamba deit labele kontrola merkadu, ka tamba desizaun ida be ladiak husi jestor eksternal ida? Oinsa ita bele asegura katak ita sei la sosa bainhira presu sae no fan bainhira nia presu tun?”

Mezmu ita la fa’an ita nia asoens, balansu iha FP nafatin uza atu kalkula Rendimentu Sustentável Estimativa (RSE) ne’ebé determina osan montante hira mak bele foti ho sustentável husi Fundu Petrolíferu. Redusaun biliaun $1.7 iha balansu FP sei hamenus RSE kuaze tokon $51 – kuaze dala-rua despeza estadu nian ba agrikultura kada tinan.

Taxa funan (taxa de juros) tun

Fundu Petrolíferu barak liu mak investe iha títulu husi governu sira, inklui biliaun $7.9 (iha fin 2019) iha títulu ne’ebé fó sai husi Tezouru Estadu Unidus nian, no biliaun $1.6 iha nasaun seluk. Taxa rendimentu ba médiu-prazu iha títulu Estadu Unidus nian tun too menus husi metade nivel uluk nian. Tinan kotuk, Fundu Petrolíferu hetan tokon $420 iha funan no dividendu,3 no ida ne’e bele tun too tokon $200 se bainhira taxa hirak ne’e kontinua hanesan agora ne’e. Se sira ne’e tun ba nafatin, Timor-Leste sei simu funan no dividendu ki’ik liu tan.

Presu mina tun

Maski esportasaun mina no gás la sai ona hanesan Timor-Leste nia fonte rendimentu prinsipál (no karik sei para total iha tinan tolu nia laran), Fundu ida ne’e nafatin sei simu reseita balu husi esportasaun mina no gás. Tinan kotuk, Ministériu Finansa projeta katak reseita husi mina no gás iha 2020 sei too tokon $595, bazeia ba espetasaun presu mina Brent nian, $62 kada barríl. Maibé, iha 13 Marsu presu mina mak $33 kada barríl. Se presu estabiliza nafatin iha maizumenus $35, reseita petróleu iha 2020 sei la too metade husi Ministériu nia projesaun, no RSE sei tun kuaze tokon $12. Se presu tun liu tan, nia impaktu sei aat liu tan.

Presu mina ne’ebé ki’ik, sei limita dezenvolvimentu petróleu iha mundu tomak, inklui Timor-Leste. Se presu kontinua ki’ik nafatin, projetu sira se fó lukru menus ba kompañia sira, no Bayu-Undan bele para produsaun lalais liu duké 2022, tuir saida mak sira planu ona. (Ida ne’e akontese ona ba Kitan iha 2015).

Kompañia no investór sira sei avalia fila fali valor ekonomia husi kada projetu iha futuru – inklui esplorasaun iha rai maran (onshore), Buffalo, Chuditch, Greater Sunrise no Tasi Mane – iha posibilidade atu atraza ka kansela. Avizu atu oferese fatin ba halo projetu (bidding round) ne’ebé ANPM daudaun ne’e halo hela sei hetan interese menus liu, tanba kompañia sira lakohi atu hahú ka investe iha projetu foun bainhira sira laiha serteza katak sira sei hetan lukru. 

Konkluzaun

Se presu no taxa funan nian ne’ebé diskute iha leten la sai aat liu (ka di’ak liu) durante tinan ida ne’e nia laran, too tinan 2020 nia rohan Timor-Leste nia investimentu Fundu Petrolíferu sei lakon loloos (net loss) kuaze biliaun $1.5. Ida ne’e biliaun rua menus manán tokon $640 ne’ebé Ministériu Finansa estimatiza iha proposta orsamentu 2020 nian. Aleinde ne’e, royalty no taxa husi mina no gás sei ki’ik liu tokon $300 husi saida mak Governu projeta ona ‘ho prudente.’ Lakon hirak ne’e bele kontinua iha tinan hirak tuir mai.

Tinan kotuk, La’o Hamutuk estimatiza katak Fundu Petrolíferu bele mamuk iha 2028, mezmu se ita la uza Fundu ne’e hodi selu ba kustu kapitál projetu Tasi Mane nian. Se tendénsia global ne’e mantén nafatin, FP sei mamuk lalais liu tan tinan balu.

Governu VIII sesante hakarak foti tokon $250 husi Fundu Petrolíferu tanba funsionamentu ba mákina estadu labele kontinua se laiha osan. Hahú iha Janeiru (hanesan iha 2018), despeza estadu ne’ebé la’o neineik hafraku ekonomia iha territóriu Timor-Leste, halo ema kiak sira sai kiak liu tan. Redusaun maka’as atividade ekonomia hatudu katak populasaun sira depende maka’as ba estadu nia despeza husi Fundu Petrolíferu – no hatudu frakeza boot husi ita nia ekonomia.

Ameasa ne’ebé oras ne’e mosu ba Fundu ne’e nia ezisténsia médiu-prazu la’ós buat foun ida, no bele sai aat liu tan tanba mudansa klimátika no redusaun iha balansu Fundu nian. Ameasa hirak ne’e fó hanoin fali mai ita katak Timor-Leste iha urjénsia tebes atu diversifika nia ekonomia ne’ebé la’ós petróleu ka investimentu. Ita liu ona tempu ita tenke investe iha ita nia labarik sira nia saúde no edukasaun, ho nune’e ita nia produtividade, sustentabilidade no ekonomia ne’ebé ekitável – agrikultura, indústria ki’ik no eko-turizmu – bele hakbiit ita nia povu sira atu bele moris ho prospero. Ida ne’e mak dalan úniku atu atinje Fundu Petrolíferu nia objetivu atu benefisia jerasaun sira tuir mai.

Glosáriu:

  • Royalty: rendimentu ne’ebé estadu hetan husi produsaun mina no gas iha tasi okos ka rai maran.
  • Ekidade: asoens (stocks) ne’ebé investe iha kompañia sira, fa’an iha merkadu internasionál
  • Títulu: Hanesan instrumentu ba rendimentu fiksa ne’ebé reprezenta fó empréstimu ruma, espesialmente ba Governu E.U. no nasaun sira seluk
  • Dividendu: distribuisaun ne’ebé rekompensa husi lukru balu ne’ebé kompañia na’in hetan no selu balu ba na’in husi asoens. 
  • Kustu Kapitál: despeza ne’ebé tenke halo atu harii projetu ida

Atualiza 14 Marsu 2020

Ami hakerek artigu iha leten iha loron 13 Marsu 2020, bazeia ba presu no taxa sira bainhira oras negósiu remata iha loron Kinta, 12 Marsu. Loron ida tuir mai, númeru tolu ne’ebé ita uza atu halo projesaun sira hadi’ak uitoan, no montante ne’ebé Fundu Petrolíferu sei lakon agora mak biliaun $1.8, menus husi lakon biliaun $2.3 ne’ebé ami kalkula horiseik. Númeru sira ne’e sei muda loron-loron, no bele sai di’ak liu ka aat. Ita-boot bele hetan dadus husi:

Atualiza 31 Marsu 2020

Trimestre ikus mak monu iha fulan ida ne’e nia rohan, situasaun merkadu asoens iha Estadus Unidus aat liu dezde 2008. Situasaun iha Fundu Petrolíferu hetan aat liu iha 23 Marsu nia laran, maibé hafoin di’ak uitoan iha fulan ne’e nia rohan, to’o hanesan ho nivel ida ne’ebé artigu ida ne’e orijinálmente hakerek. Se bainhira situasaun ne’e nafatin la iha mudansa durante periodu 2020, balansu Fundu iha tinan ikus sei iha kuaze biliaun $1.9 menus liu kompara ho saida mak espekta iha inísiu tinan ida ne’e. (Artigu orijinál uza 12 Fevereiru hanesan referénsia; hahú husi pontu inísiu ne’e lakon ona rendimentu kuaze biliaun $2.1.)

Relatóriu mensal BCTL iha fulan Fevreiru hatudu balansu Fundu ne’ebé tuun ba tokon $344 durante fulan Fevreiru. Maske relatóriu fulan Marsu nian seidauk hasai, La’o Hamutuk estimatiza katak ida ne’e sei tuun ba tokon $500.

Ba Timor-Leste, bainhira folin mina ne’ebé kontinua tuun sei sai preokupasaun boot liu tan, no peritu sira hanoin katak ida ne’e bele tun to’o menus $20/barríl. Reseita husi kampu Bayu-Undan durante 2021-2023 sei menus husi montante tokon $260 hanesan ne’ebé sira antisipa ona. Ba tempu naruk, projetu petróleu ne’ebé iha planu hahú tiha ona – inklui Buffalo, atividade iha rai laran, Chuditch no Greater Sunrise – sei labele hetan lukru sufisiente atu justifika sira nia kapitál investimentu, no sei la kontinua atu dezenvolve; atu hanesan mós ho projetu sira iha mundu tomak ne’ebé kanseladu.

Atualiza 1 Maiu 2020

Durante fulan Abril, merkadu asoens iha Estadus Unidus sa’e maka’as liu kompara ho fulan sira seluk durante tinan 33 nia laran, ne’ebé konsege rekupera fila fali maizumenus 60% husi lakon sira ne’ebé akontese iha médiu Fevereiru too iha semana datolu Marsu. Tanba impaktu ekonomia husi surtu sei kleur atu remata, analista sira preokupa katak rekuperasaun ne’e sei la kontinua.

Mina nia folin no taxa funan iha títulu Estadu Unidus tuun uitoan durante Abril. Se situasaun hanesan iha 30 Abril kontinua nafatin too tinan 2020 nia rohan, balansu Fundu Petrolíferu ne’e nian iha tinan nia rohan sei menus liu maizumenus biliaun $1.25 husi espetasaun iha inísiu tinan ida ne’e.

Balansu Fundu Petrolíferu iha fin Marsu mak biliaun $17.03, tuun tokon $476 durante fulan Marsu, no tokon $663 ki’ik liu kompara ho balansu iha inísiu 2020. Laiha levantamentu osan iha fulan Marsu. Embora balansu ba fulan Abril sa’e (dadus seidauk disponivel), manán hirak ne’e sei limita fali ho levantamentu tokon $250 atu finansia Fundu Espesiál Covid-19 no funsionamentu regular governu nian.

Maske situasaun merkadu asoens rekupera fali husi pontu ida ki’ik liu, ida ne’e nafatin sei tuun-sa’e no bele tuun liu tan, tanba surtu Covid-19 ne’e sei kontinua ba fulan barak tan.

Ba Timor-Leste, mina nia folin ne’ebé kontinua tuun ho la serteza sai preokupasaun boot ba oin, no peritu barak espekta mós katak folin mina kontinua no bele ki’ik liu $20/barrel ba fulan ka tinan balu. Rendimentu ne’ebé sei mai husi Bayu-Undan iha 2021-2023 sei la too tokon $260 ne’ebé projeta ona. Ba tempu naruk, projetu petroleum ne’ebé iha ona planu – inklui Buffalo, rai leten, Chuditch no Greater Sunrise – dalaruma sei la fó lukru nato’on atu justifika investimentu kapitál no bele la realiza; projetu sira hanesan ne’e barak iha mundu tomak mak kansela ona. Fundu Petrolíferu tokon $650 ne’ebé fó empresta ba TimorGap atu bele sosa asoens iha kampu Greater Sunrise nian, ne’ebé nafatin tama iha konta balansu, dalaruma sei la selu fila fali.

Aleinde ne’e, nasaun barak mak prolonga ka adia sira nia avizu atu oferese fatin ba esplorasaun (bidding round), maski ANPM nafatin iha esperansa no atu hetan aplikasaun molok fulan Outubru.

Balansu iha Fundu Petrolíferu sei tuun liu tan iha 2020 – tanba retornu negativu investimentu nian no levantamentu estraordináriu hodi responde ba surtu Covid-19 – no dalaruma sei laiha tan rendimentu petrolíferu hodi aumenta fila fali ba Fundu Petrolíferu. Oinsá Timor-Leste sei finansia nia governu hafoin buat hotu fila fali ba “normal”?

Atualiza 20 Jullu 2020

Durante fulan Maiu-Jullu, merkadu asoens iha Estadus Unidus kontinua atu sa’e, maske ekonomia iha EUA no globál kontinua atu enfrenta problema boot sira. Folin mina rekupera uitoan, maibé nafatin iha nivel metade kompara ho inísiu tinan 2020. Taxa funan iha títulu Estadu Unidus tuun uitoan durante fulan ida ne’e. 
Bainhira fulan Juñu remata, saldu iha Fundu Petrolíferu atinje biliaun $18.07, montante boot liu iha istória Fundu ne’e. Maske nune’e, reseita bainhira tinan 2020 remata sei tokon $500 menus liu kompara ho projesaun husi tinan kotuk. Tuir matadalan OJE 2020, levantamentu durante Jullu-Dezembru sei tokon $680, kompara ho tokon $250 iha Janeiru-Juñu.
ANPM prolonga bidding round ba tinan ida, ate fulan Outubru tinan 2021. No kompañia Australia Woodside, parseiru ida iha konsorsiu Greater Sunrise, dezvaloriza sira nia partisipasaun ba 45%. Ho mudansa iha lideransa iha TimorGap, Ministériu Petróleu no projetu Greater Sunrise, Timor-Leste nia futuru iha setór petróleu iha inserteza barak.
Durante fulan Abril no Maiu, Timor-Leste simu reseita petróleu rata-rata tokon $27/fulan, menus 50% kompara ho tokon $63/fulan ne’ebé Timor-Leste simu ona durante tinan 2019.
Tanba impaktu ekonomia husi surtu sei kleur atu remata, analista sira preokupa katak rekuperasaun ne’e sei la kontinua.

 

02 July 2020

Global economic developments hit Timor-Leste hard


Download English PDF of this article ka verzaun Tetum husi iha ne'e
Original article 13 March 2020. See updates through 2 July below, with current graphs.

Since 2015, Timor-Leste’s state revenues have depended on income earned from investing the money saved in the Petroleum Fund, rather than on royalties and taxes from extracting and exporting oil and gas.

In this investment-dependent condition, La’o Hamutuk decided to look into how global economic and financial market changes will affect the financial capacity and stability of Timor-Leste’s government operations. Although we cannot influence these events, we need to understand them.

This article is a preliminary analysis of how recent changes – from 12 February to 12 March 2020 – are impacting our Petroleum Fund (PF).

Falling equity prices

Equity (stock) markets in the U.S. and other countries dropped about 26% during the last 30 days. The PF owned about $6.6 billion in equities at the end of 2019. Therefore, we have lost about $1.7 billion in the market value of our stocks. However, the market is very volatile, and we do not need to sell our stocks right now. If the market bounces back (as it did in 2019), we will lose less money, but if it continues to fall (as it did in 2008), we could lose a lot more.

Timor-Leste’s Petroleum Fund was the only one in the world which didn’t lose money during the 2008 global economic crisis, because we were not invested in stocks. (Norway lost about $90 billion.) In 2010, when the Petroleum Fund Law was being revised to allow more of the Fund to be used to buy stocks, La’o Hamutuk asked "How will Timor-Leste’s Government respond to opposition and public concern when the principal of the Petroleum Fund loses value due to market forces outside their control, or because of a poor decision by an external manager? How can we make sure that we don’t buy when prices are high and sell when they are low?"

Even if we don’t sell the stocks, the balance in the PF is used to calculate the Estimated Sustainable Income (ESI) guideline for how much can be withdrawn sustainably from the Petroleum Fund. A fall of $1.7 billion in the Fund’s balance reduces ESI by $51 million – about twice as much as the State spends on agriculture every year.

Falling interest rates

Most of the Petroleum Fund is invested in government bonds, including $7.9 billion (as of the end of 2019) in those issued by the United States Treasury, and $1.6 billion in other countries.  Yield rates of medium-term U.S. bonds have dropped to less than half of their previous levels. Last year, the Petroleum Fund received $420 million in interest and dividends, and this could drop to $200 million if rates stay where they are.  If they fall further, Timor-Leste will receive even less in interest and dividends.

Falling oil prices

Although oil and gas exports are no longer Timor-Leste’s main source of income (and may end entirely in about three years), the Fund still receives some revenue from them. Last year, the Ministry of Finance projected that oil and gas revenues in 2020 would be $595 million, based on an expected Brent oil price of $62 per barrel. However, on 13 March the price was $33. If prices stabilize at around $35, petroleum revenues in 2020 will be less than half of what the Ministry projected, and the ESI would drop by about $12 million. If they fall further, the impact will be even more severe.

Low oil prices will restrict petroleum development across the globe, including in Timor-Leste. If they stay low, projects will be less profitable for companies, and Bayu-Undan could stop production even earlier than 2022, as is currently planned. (This happened with Kitan in 2015.)

Companies and investors will reassess the economics of every future project – including on-shore exploration, Buffalo, Chuditch, Greater Sunrise and Tasi Mane – possibly leading to delays or cancellations. The bidding round that ANPM is currently conducting may attract less interest, because companies hesitate to embark on or invest in new projects when they are uncertain that they will make money.

Conclusion

If the prices and interest rates discussed above don’t get any worse (or better) during the rest of this year, by the end of 2020 Timor-Leste’s Petroleum Fund’s investments will have a net loss of about $1.5 billion, more than two billion lower than the $640 million gain the Ministry of Finance estimated in the proposed 2020 budget. In addition, oil and gas royalties and taxes will be $300 million less than the Government ‘prudently’ projected. The losses could continue in future years.

Last year, La’o Hamutuk projected that the Petroleum Fund could be empty by 2028, even if it is not used to pay capital costs of the Tasi Mane project. If current global trends persist, this will happen several years sooner.

The outgoing VIII Government intends to withdraw $250 million from the Petroleum Fund because the machinery of the state cannot continue to function without it. Since January (as in 2018), slower state spending has weakened Timor-Leste’s entire economy, making poor people even poorer. This reduced economic activity underscores how much our population depends on the state spending money from the Petroleum Fund – and how weak the rest of our economy is.

The recent threats to the Fund’s medium-term survival are not new, and could become even worse due to climate change and the reduced balance in the Fund. They remind us that Timor-Leste urgently needs to diversify its economy away from petroleum and investments. It is long past time to invest in our children’s health and education so that our productive, sustainable and equitable economy – agriculture, light industry and eco-tourism – can enable our people to survive and thrive. That is the only way to achieve the Petroleum Fund’s promise to benefit future generations.

Update, 14 March 2020

The above article was written on 13 March 2020, based on prices and yield rates at the close of business on Thursday 12 March. The following day, all three indices used in these calculations improved, and the drop in Petroleum Fund revenues became $1.8 billion, less than the $2.3 billion loss we calculated the day before. These numbers will change every day, and could get better or worse. The data is available at:

Update, 31 March 2020

The end of the month was the end of the quarter, the worst for the U.S. stock market since 2008. The situation for the Petroleum Fund got much worse around 23 March, but recovered slightly by the end of the month, to about the same level as when the article above was originally written. If things stay unchanged for the rest of 2020, the Fund's balance at the end of the year will be about $1.9 billion less than was expected at the beginning of the year. (The previous article used 12 February as a reference; from that starting point the lost income is about $2.1 billion.)

The monthly BCTL report for February showed a drop in the Fund balance of $344 million during that month. Although the March report is not yet released, La'o Hamutuk estimates that it will show a further drop of $500 million.

For Timor-Leste, the continuing fall of the oil price is a more lasting worry, and many experts expect it to drop well below $20/barrel. Bayu-Undan's remaining revenue in 2021-2023 will be much less than the $260 million that has been projected. For the longer term, other petroleum projects on the drawing board -- including Buffalo, onshore, Chuditch and Greater Sunrise -- may not be profitable enough to justify the capital investment, and may not happen at all, as many other oil projects and contracting rounds around the world are being cancelled.

Update, 1 May 2020

During April, the U.S. stock market had its strongest month in 33 years, recovering about 60% of its losses between mid-February and the third week of March.

Oil prices and interest rates on U.S. bonds fell only slightly during April. If things stay as they were on April 30 for the rest of 2020, the Fund’s balance at the end of the year will be about $1.25 billion less than was expected at the beginning of the year.

The Petroleum Fund Balance at the end of March was $17.03 billion, a drop of $476 million during the month, and $663 million lower than at the beginning of 2020. No money was withdrawn in March. Although the balance went up to $17.60 billion in April, gains were limited by a $250 million withdrawal to finance the Covid-19 Special Fund and regular government operations.

Here’s how the components of the calculations in this blog did during the first four months of 2020. Although the stock market has recovered from its lowest point, it is still very volatile and could fall further, as the Covid-19 pandemic will continue for months.

For Timor-Leste, the continuing erratic drop in the oil price is a more lasting worry, and many experts expect that it could stay at or below $20/barrel for months or years. Bayu-Undan’s remaining revenue in 2021-2023 will be much less than the $260 million that had been projected. For the longer term, petroleum projects on the drawing board -- including Buffalo, onshore, Chuditch and Greater Sunrise -- may not be profitable enough to justify their capital investment and may not happen at all; similar projects around the world are being cancelled. The Petroleum Fund’s $650 million loan so that TimorGAP could buy participation in Greater Sunrise, which is still counted in its balance, may never be repaid.

In addition, many countries are extending or delaying their bidding rounds for new oil and gas exploration, although ANPM still hopes to get bids before October.
The Petroleum Fund balance will fall far in 2020 -- from negative investment returns and from extraordinary withdrawals to cope with the pandemic -- and there may not be any more petroleum revenues to replenish it. How will Timor-Leste finance its government after things return to “normal”?

Update, 2 July 2020

During May and June, the U.S. stock market continued to improve, in spite of major problems in the U.S. and global economies. However, if things stay as they were at mid-year, the end-of-2020 PF balance will still be about $780 million lower than was projected at the end of last year.

Oil prices also recovered a little, although they are still 37% lower than they were at the start of 2020. In April and May, Timor-Leste received an average of $27 million per month in oil revenues, less than half of the $63 million per month received during 2019.

Interest rates on U.S. Treasury Bonds dropped slightly during May and June.

As the economic impacts of the pandemic are far from over, analysts worry that the rebound might not continue.

04 May 2020

TL Laiha Mudansa iha Transparénsia Orsamentál tuir Klasifikasaun Internasionál

Relatóriu Open Budget Survey ba tinan 2019 foin loke ba públiku, ho rezultadu global iha ne'e. Bele hetan relatóriu kona-ba Timor-Leste rasik iha Ingles no Portugés, no formuláriu kestionáriu ho resposta sira (Ingles).

La'o Hamutuk fó sai komunikadu imprensa tuir mai iha loron 30 Abril (bele hetan hanesan PDF ka iha Ingles).

TIMOR-LESTE LAIHA MUDANSA BA KLASIFIKASAUN INTERNASIONÁL KONA BA GOVERNU NIA TRANSPARÉNSIA IHA ORSAMENTU

Rezultadu hatudu katak presiza iha progresu tan, liu-liu durante Estadu Emerjénsia ba Prevensaun Covid-19


Dili, 30 Abril 2020 — Iha surtu global ida ne’e obriga estadu barak iha mundu atu estabelese medida foun ba sira nia despeza, ajénsia ida hanaran Parseiru Orsamentu Internasionál (International Budget Partnership - IBP), sira nia rezultadu husi Open Budget Survey ikus hatudu katak 4/5 husi nasaun 117 ne'ebé inklui iha peskiza la konsege atinje too iha valór mínimu (benchmark) atu hetan transparénsia no fiskalizasaun orsamentu ida ne’ebé di’ak no adekuadu, atu tuir standar/padraun internasionál nian. Timor-Leste nia valór transparénsia, hetan 40 de’it husi 100, laiha mudansa signifikativu dezde 2015, enkuantu nasaun barak iha Sudeste Ázia sira hadi’ak sira nia transparénsia liu tan.

Iha momentu kritiku ida ne’e, bainhira Timor-Leste seidauk aprova Orsamentu Jerál Estadu 2020 mezmu ida ne’e nesesáriu tebes atu gasta lalais iha estadu emerjénsia hodi nune’e bele enfrenta ba surtu Covid-19, ho nune’e importante tebes atu públiku bele hetan asesu ba informasaun sira relasiona ho despeza estadu nian. Ba futuru, prosesu konsultasaun públiku durante preparasaun orsamentu, no mós fiskalizasaun no relatóriu sira iha ezekusaun orsamentu, presiza tebes atu hadi’ak antes estadu emerjénsia ne’e remata, tanba orsamentu ba 2020 no 2021 tenke hetan aprovasaun lalais.

Bazeia ba relatóriu foun, esforsu sira Timor-Leste nian atu kumpre sasukat xave ba publikasaun dokumentu importante sira ne’ebé esplika ho klaru, detallu kona ba polítika orsamentu, desizaun no rezultadu sira ne’ebé hanesan iha Open Budget Survey 2017 nian, no hatudu situasaun aat uitoan kompara iha 2015. Iha Timor-Leste, haat (4) husi dokumentu orsamentu ualu (8) importante ne’ebé tuir loloos tenke publika maibé realidade ida ne’e la disponivel ba públiku, no ida ne’e hatudu katak piór liu iha valór média kompara ho nasaun hotu-hotu, ne’ebé kuaze 1/3 mak la’ós ba públiku ka la asesível ba públiku.

“Embora Surtu ida ne’e iha ezizénsia maka’as atu iha asaun lalais no rigorozu, transparénsia ba orsamentu, partisipasaun no supervizaun ida ne’ebé funsiona ho di’ak tebes mak presiza liu,” hatete Warren Krafchik, Diretór Ezekutivu IBP ninian. “Medida hirak ne’ebé governu sira foti atu responde ba emerjénsia boot saúde publika, orsamentu hirak ne’e tenke nakloke no transparente, no autoridade sira tenke permite envolvimentu públiku ida ne’ebé inkluzivu durante planu no implementasaun.”

Hanesan iha peskiza husi IBP no organizasaun sira hatudu katak, orsamentu sira ne’ebé nakloke oferese dalan ida ba nasaun sira atu dezenvolve ho di’ak liu iha sosiál no ekonómiku. Sira bele hadi’ak fila fali konfiansa iha governu, no hametin relasaun entre instituisaun públiku sira no ba povu hirak ne’ebé loloos sira tenke serve no tau atensaun ba.

Investigadór prinsipál ba Timor-Leste iha survey ida ne’e, peskizadóra La’o Hamutuk Eliziaria Febe Gomes, nota katak valór nasaun ida ne’e, 40/100, hanesan ho ida ne’ebé hatudu ona iha tinan rua kotuk.
“Ita nia valór nafatin iha nivel aseitável nia okos, piór liu fali 58% husi nasaun sira ne’ebé hetan survey. Iha tempu hanesan, ita nia nasaun viziñu sira iha mudansa – nasaun boot hitu iha ASEAN hadi’ak sira nia valór iha média husi pontu 11 iha tinan rua nia laran. Vietnam, Kamboja, Mianmar ne’ebé kuaze ita liu sira, husi pontu 26 ki’ik liu Timor-Leste iha 2017, agora ho média pontu 7 iha ita nia kotuk. Filipina, Indonézia no Tailándia, ne’ebé sira nia valór média pontu 22 boot liu ita nian iha 2017, agora sira iha 29 pontu di’ak liu ita. Maske Timor-Leste konsidera an hanesan nasaun ida ne’ebé demokrátiku liu iha Sudeste Ázia, ida ne’e hatudu momoos katak desizaun sira presiza nakloke no partisipativu liu, ho nune’e povu hotu hatene katak sira nia osan uza duni no bele asegura katak responde duni ba sira nia nesesidade urjente.”
Maske survey ikus iha Open Budget Survey (OBS) nian kompleta ona molok surtu espalla no uza dokumentu sira ne’ebé publika iha 2018 nian, ida ne’e mak indikadór ba Timor-Leste iha pratika atuál relasiona ho divulgasaun orsamentu, oportunidade ba envolvimentu públiku iha síkulu orsamentu, no efetividade check-balance. Ho razaun mudansa iha governasaun hafoin eleisaun antesipada iha Maiu 2018, Timor-Leste la aprova orsamentu estadu 2018 too iha Setembru 2018, no finalmente iha orsamentu 2019 hetan aprovasaun iha inísiu 2019, hafoin liu tiha loron ikus ba determinasaun OBS nian (31 Dezembru).

Entretantu, padraun atu observa nian durante survey hatudu konsisténsia iha antes no iha pratika atuál, no ohin loron Timor-Leste nafatin iha situasaun hanesan – fulan haat (4) too iha 2020, no nafatin laiha orsamentu estadu 2020, no autoridade sira kontinua esforsu hodi mantén funsionamentu estadu no responde ba Covid-19 ne’ebé nafatin iha situasaun provizóriu sistema duodesimal. Timor-Leste hahú Estadu Emerjénsia iha fulan Marsu nia rohan, lahó orsamentu, tokon $150 ho estraordináriu transfere husi Fundu Petrolíferu ba iha fundu orsamentu foun atu responde ba saúde emerjénsia no ba konsekuénsia ekonomia. Maske, lahó despeza adisionál, balansu iha Fundu Petrolíferu tun maka’as tebes, tanba reseita mina nian tun no investimentu iha merkadu mundiál mós tun.

Sasukat sira iha Open Budget

Transparénsia orsamentál (Budget transparency) avalia iha OBS liu husi disponibilidade ba públiku no konteúdu husi dokumentu importante ualu orsamentu nian ne’ebé governu sira tenke públika tuir padraun internasionál. Espesífikamente, ezamina peskiza sira ne’ebé publika iha online tuir tempu determinadu no fó sai informasaun ida ne’ebé komprensivu no detallu.
  • Valór media global transparénsia ninian maka 45 husi 100, menus husi 61 konsidera hanesan valór mínimu atu promove debate iha públiku ida ne’ebé informadu.
  • Timor-Leste nia valór 40 husi 100, hetan pozisaun 69 ne’ebé inklui husi nasaun 117.
Partisipasaun husi públiku (Public participation) avalia bazeia ba oportunidade formal ba organizasaun no ema sivíl sira atu partisipa no fó hanoin sira durante prosesu orsamentu. 
  • Valór media global ba partisipasaun públiku ida ne’e aat tebes, 14 husi 100.
  • Timor-Leste hetan de’it valór 6, piór liu kompara ho nasaun sira iha Sudeste Ázia úniku Mianmar (no hamutuk ho Kamboja).
Fiskalizasaun (Oversight) sukat bazeia ba funsaun husi lejislatura no Instituisaun Supremu Auditoria (SAI) iha prosesu orsamentu. 
  • Valór 61 husi 100, ida ne’e konsidera adekuadu iha fiskalizasaun.
  • Timor-Leste hetan valór 48.
Febe Gomes observa katak:
“Aleinde audiénsia parlamentár ne’ebé limitadu tebes, públiku la inklui iha prosesu preparasaun orsamentu no prosesu fiskalizasaun. Ministériu sira presiza rona mós husi povu bainhira sira prepara sira nia orsamentu, no informasaun kona ba despeza no reseita sira tenke disponivel hanesan ho saida mak sira halo ka implementa. Maske ita nia Governu orgullu ho Portal Transparénsia, portal finansa públika laiha informasaun kona ba 2020, enkuantu portal ba aprovizionamentu dala-ruma funsiona maibé laiha informasaun kona ba kontratu importante barak, inklui kontratu boot sira iha tinan hirak kotuk.

“Hanesan iha ita nia rezerva mina no gas ne’ebé hahú mamuk no osan iha ita nia Fundu Petrolíferu tun, Timor-Leste tenke ho kuidadu liu uza ita nia Fundu ho prudente, enkuantu diversifika ita nia ekonomia no finansa estadu sai husi dependénsia ba mina no gas ne'ebé laiha serteza. OBS ida ne’e hatudu katak oinsá ita bele hadi’ak informasaun públiku, partisipasaun no akontabilidade – ida ne’ebé sei sai esensiál liu iha futuru.”
IBP primeira vez lansa sira nia survey iha 2006 ho meta katak sidadaun hotu, liu-liu sira ne’ebé husi komunidade ne'ebé estadu haluha, iha oportunidade atu komprende no influensia kona ba oinsá osan povu nian – sira nia osan –  jere duni no gasta. Normálmente, iha baze ba kada tinan rua, dadus sira koleta husi sosiedade sivíl independente nudár peritu ba orsamentu, ne’ebé la pertense iha kualkér instituisaun governu nian. Sira nia rezultadu sei hetan revizaun fila fali husi parte anonimus, no IBP husi reprezentante governu nian atu halo revizaun no komentáriu iha rezultadu ne’e.

La’o Hamutuk, Institutu ba Analiza no Monitor Dezenvolvimentu iha Timor-Leste, nudár organizasaun sosiedade sivíl independente naun-partidáriu ne’ebé tau matan ba prosesu orsamentu iha Timor-Leste hahú antes restorasaun independénsia iha 2002, halo advokasia ba transparénsia, sustentabilidade no igualdade. Durante tempu barak ona, governu Timor-Leste nakonu ho osan husi esportasaun mina no gas, maibé populasaun sira nafatin moris kiak no labarik sira ho kondisaun malnutrisaun ne’ebé sai piór liu iha mundu. Ho reseita husi mina ne’ebé kuaze mohu no lakon osan iha investimentu, organizasaun ida ne’e servisu hamutuk ho sosiedade sivíl sira seluk atu asegura katak riku soin ne’ebé iha no limitadu ida ne’e uza duni atu responde ba povu sira nia nesesidade.

30 April 2020

Timor-Leste unimproved in 2019 Open Budget Survey

The Open Budget Survey for 2019 has just been released, with global results hereDownload the Timor-Leste-specific report or the questionnaire (with answers).

La'o Hamutuk issued the following press release on 30 April (also available in Tetum or as a PDF).

TIMOR-LESTE UNCHANGED IN INTERNATIONAL RANKING ON GOVERNMENT BUDGET TRANSPARENCY

Findings Show More Progress is Needed, Especially During the State of Emergency to Address Covid-19


Dili, 30 April 2020—Amid a global pandemic that is forcing governments around the world to launch new spending measures, the International Budget Partnership’s (IBP) latest Open Budget Survey shows that four-fifths of the 117 governments assessed failed to reach the minimum threshold for adequate budget transparency and oversight, under international standards. Timor-Leste’s transparency score, which is 40 out of 100, has not changed significantly since 2015, although most other Southeast Asian countries have gotten more transparent.

At this critical time, when Timor-Leste has not enacted a 2020 State Budget but rapid emergency spending is required to deal with the Covid-19 pandemic, it is especially important that information on state spending be available to the public. Going forward, processes for public consultation during budget preparation, as well as oversight and reporting on budget execution, need to be improved after the State of Emergency has ended, as both the 2020 and 2021 budgets will need to be enacted expeditiously.

According to the new report, Timor-Leste’s efforts to meet key benchmarks for publishing key budget documents that clearly explain budget policies, decisions and outcomes are the same as they were in the 2017 Open Budget Survey, and slightly worse than in 2015. In Timor-Leste, four of the eight key budget documents that governments should publish were not available to the public, which is worse than the average for all countries, for whom one-third are not public.

“While the pandemic clearly demands swift and decisive action, budget transparency, civic engagement and well-functioning oversight are imperative as well,” says Warren Krafchik, IBP’s executive director. “As governments respond to this massive public health emergency, budgets must remain open and transparent, and officials must allow inclusive public engagement during planning and implementation.”

As research by IBP and other organizations demonstrates, open budgets offer a promising pathway for countries to thrive socially and economically. They can restore trust in governments and strengthen frayed relationships between public institutions and the people they are meant to serve.

The principal investigator for Timor-Leste in the survey, La’o Hamutuk researcher Eliziaria ‘Febe’ Gomes, noted that the country’s score, 40/100, is the same as it was two years ago:
“Our score is stuck below acceptable levels, worse than 58% of the countries surveyed. At the same time, our neighbors are improving – the seven largest ASEAN countries improved their score by an average of 11 points in the last two years. Vietnam, Cambodia and Myanmar have almost caught up with us, coming from 26 points lower than Timor-Leste in 2017 to now averaging only 7 points behind. The Philippines, Indonesia and Thailand, whose scores averaged 22 points higher than ours in 2017, are now 29 points better than we are. Although Timor-Leste sees itself as more democratic than the rest of Southeast Asia, it’s clear that decisions need to be more visible and participatory, so that our people know how their money is used and can ensure that it addresses their pressing needs.”
While the latest Open Budget Survey (OBS) was completed just before the pandemic hit and uses documents produced during 2018, it is an indicator of Timor-Leste’s current practices related to budget disclosure, opportunities for public engagement in the budget cycle, and effective checks and balances. Due to the change of government following an early election in May 2018, Timor-Leste did not enact its 2018 state budget until September 2018, and the 2019 budget was finally approved in early 2019, after the OBS cutoff date.

Nevertheless, the patterns observed during the survey are consistent with earlier and more recent practice, and Timor-Leste is in a similar situation today – four months into 2020, there is still no 2020 state budget, and officials are struggling to keep government functioning and respond to Covid-19 under an interim ‘duodecimal’ system. Timor-Leste has been under a State of Emergency since late March, and, in the absence of a budget, $150 million has been extraordinarily transferred from the sovereign wealth ‘Petroleum Fund’ into a new off-budgetary fund to deal with the health emergency and its economic consequences. Even without these additional expenditures, the Petroleum Fund’s balance is dropping rapidly, due to declining oil revenues and to declines in investment markets worldwide.

The Measures of Open Budgets

Budget transparency is assessed in the OBS by the public availability and contents of eight key budget documents that all governments are expected to publish as per international standards. Specifically, the survey examines whether they are published online in a timely manner and the information is comprehensive.
  • The global average transparency score was 45 out of 100, short of the 61 considered the minimum threshold to foster an informed public debate.
  • Timor-Leste scored 40 out of 100, ranking 69th of the 117 countries included.
Public participation is assessed based on formal opportunities for civic organizations and individuals to engage and provide input throughout the budget process.
  • The average global score for public participation is dismal: 14 out of 100.
  • Timor-Leste scored only 6, worse than every Southeast Asian country except Myanmar (and tied with Cambodia).
Oversight is measured based on the role played by legislatures and supreme audit institutions (SAIs) in the budget process.
  • A score of 61 out of 100 is considered adequate oversight.
  • Timor-Leste scored 48.
Febe Gomes observed:
“Other than in limited Parliamentary hearings, the public is excluded from budget preparation and oversight processes. Ministries need to hear from the people as they are preparing their budgets, and spending and revenue information should be made available as it happens. Although our Government is proud of its Transparency Portal, the Budget Portal has no information about 2020, while the intermittently-functional eProcurement Portal leaves out many important contracts, including the largest ones in recent years.

“As our oil and gas deposits are depleted and the money in our Petroleum Fund declines, Timor-Leste will have to use our shrinking savings more wisely, while diversifying our economy and state finances away from dependency on illusory oil and gas. The OBS shows the way to improve public information, participation and accountability – which will become even more essential in the future.”
IBP first launched the survey in 2006 with the goal of assuring that all citizens, especially those from underserved communities, have the opportunity to understand and influence how public money – their money – is raised and spent. Typically fielded every two years, data are collected by independent civil-society budget experts who are not beholden to any national government. Their findings are reviewed by anonymous peers, and representatives from the assessed governments are asked to review and comment on the findings.

La’o Hamutuk, the Timor-Leste Institute for Development Monitoring and Analysis, is an independent, nonpartisan civil society organization which has closely followed budgetary processes in Timor-Leste since before the restoration of national independence in 2002, advocating for transparency, sustainability and equity. During much of that time, Timor-Leste’s government has been swimming in money from oil and gas exports, yet most people remain poor and child malnutrition is among the worst in the world. With petroleum revenues almost gone and investments losing money, the organization is working with others in civil society to ensure that the remaining saved wealth is used to meet people’s needs.

21 April 2020

Mai Ita Hamutuk Bele Evita Surtu COVID-19

Surat Popular husi La'o Hamutuk. Bele download hanesan PDF.

Saida mak Surtu Covid-19?

Covid-19 ka Virus Corona mak moras foun iha mundu ne’ebé fasil tebes atu hada’et husi ema ba ema. Virus mak buat ki’ik tebes ne’ebé ema labele haree ho matan de’it. Dezde fulan Janeiru tinan 2020, moras ne’e hada’et ba rai hotu iha mundu no hamate ona ema rihun 165 no kazu ne’ebé sei ativu hamutuk millaun 2 resin.

Kazu hirak ne’e kontinua aumenta loroloron no númeru totál ba kazu liu númeru populasaun tomak iha illa Timor.  Iha loron 16 Abril, Timor-Leste iha ona ema na’in-18 hetan testu pozitivu, ema na’in ida rekupera ona no seidauk iha ema ne’ebé mate. Bainhira ita hamutuk kuidadu ho di’ak ita nia an, família no komunidade, ita bele hamenus impaktu negativu husi virus ida-ne’e.

Saida mak sintoma Surtu Covid-19?

Covid-19 bele estraga ita nia aten-book no mós bele hamate ema.
Ema bele hetan Covid-19 maske la mosu sintoma sira. Nia mós bele hada’et virus ne’e ba ema seluk.
Maioria ema ne’ebé hetan Covid-19 bele rekupera fali no hetan saúde di’ak bainhira nia iha isin forte no di’ak (sistema imunidade)  atu proteje husi virus ida ne’e.
Covid-19 bele perigu ba sé de’it, no perigu liu ba katuas-ferik sira no ema hirak ne’ebé iha moras nanis ona (hanesan moras TB, moras pulmaun no moras seluk tan).

Pratika di’ak sira-ne’e ajuda atu hamenus moras ne’e hada’et:



1.  Fase Liman ho Sabaun.

Fase didi’ak no bei-beik liman ho sabaun no bee moos bele hamate virus ne’e. Fase di’ak signifika fase liman maizumenus hanesan ho ita kanta múzika ba tinan nian dala rua ka segundu 20, no asegura liman fuan sira no liman laran tenke fase halo moos. Virus bele hada’et bainhira ita nia liman kona sasán ho virus hafoin kaer ita nia oin, matan, inus ka ibun.
2.  Hadook an ho Ema Seluk Metru 1 ka liu.

Bainhira ko’alia ka hasoru tenke hadook an liu metru 1 atu nune’e moras labele hada’et. Bainhira ema ida me’ar ka fani ka ko’alia, sira bele hada’et mós ho been turuk ki’ik sai husi sira-nia inus ka ibun ne’ebé dala ruma kontaminadu ho virus. Se ita besik loos ema ne’e, ita bele dada iis tama fali turuk been ne’e, inklui ho virus COVID-19 karik ema ne’ebé me’ar infetadu hela.

Evita tuur hamutuk iha grupu ka halo eventu. Virus ida ne’e lalais liu atu hada’et bainhira ita hamutuk iha fatin ida no ita hamriik/tuur besik malu ho ema seluk.

3.  Evita kaer Sasán no Fatin.

Bainhira ita halo servisu ruma ka halo atividade ruma ita presiza ho kuidadu atu labele kaer sasán arbiru liu-liu sasán hirak ne’ebé ema seluk kaer ona. Virus bele moris iha sasán ruma durante oras 24 (loron tomak ida) ka liu, inklui mós iha ita nia liman. Ita nia liman bele transfere virus ba matan, inus ka ibun, ho nune’e virus bele tama ita nia isin no halo moras.


4.  Hela iha Uma.

Fatin seguru liu ba ita mak hakmatek iha ita ida-idak nia uma, atu la bele hetan da’et husi ema seluk no ita mós sei la hada’et ba ema seluk.

5.  Tenke uza Masker.

Masker bele prevene virus hada’et liu husi ita nia ibun no inus. Maibé uza masker de’it la to’o atu prevene moras - bainhira ita uza masker ita presiza kontinua atu foti medidas iha leten, no la bele kaer ita nia oin ka masker.

Pergunta ba ita mak


1.    Iha ona ai-moruk atu kura ka prevene Surtu Covid-19?
To’o ohin loron sientista (matenek na’in sira) seidauk hetan ai-moruk ida ne’ebé partikulármente bele kura ka prevene ita husi Covid-19. Maske ai-moruk seidauk iha, ema hirak ne’ebé hetan moras ho kondisaun di’ak hela, bele rekupera fila fali maibé bele fó moras ne’e ba ema sira ne’ebé vulneravel liu.

2.    Importánsia ba ema sira ne’ebé foin mai husi rai li’ur ka fatin ida atu hela iha Kuarentena?
Fatin kuarentena mak importante atu prevene virus ida ne’e hada’et. Ita hotu sai seguru liu bainhira iha fasilidade atu halo kuarentena. La ho fatin kuarentena, iha posibilidade bo’ot liu virus ida ne’e bele hada’et ba ema seluk.  Ita hotu presiza suporta esforsu atu hamenus impaktu moras ida ne’e.

3.    Ema sira ne’ebé husi li’ur mak lori Covid-19 mai Timor?
Surtu Covid-19 agora ne’e grave tebes iha mundu tomak no hahú aumenta mós iha Timor loron ba loron. Kazu ba virus hirak ne’e, hahú mosu bainhira Timoroan sira ne’ebé fila mai husi rai seluk no la’ós ema estranjeiru (ema rai li’ur). Virus ida ne’e la haree ba rasa, kór, relijiaun, nsst. Ho nune’e, presiza tau atensaun maka’as liu atu ita hotu bele evita husi Surtu Covid-19.

4.    Oinsá atu bele implementa hadook malu (mínimu metru 2) bainhira hela ho membru família barak?
Família uma laran presiza halo tuir pratika di’ak hirak ne’ebé hakerek ona iha leten no seluk ne’ebé fó sai husi pesoál saúde Timor-Leste no mundiál. Bainhira membru husi família ida sai ba li’ur tenke responsabiliza nia an atu evita husi Surtu Covid-19 atu nune’e labele fó risku ba nia família liuliu sira ne’ebé idade ka ida ne’ebé vulneravel liu.

Kuidadu ita nia an, ita nia família no ita nia komunidade husi Surtu Covid-19 !


Bainhira hetan sintoma ba Surtu Covid-19, bele kontaktu ba númeru liña emerjénsia telefónika: 119.

Bainhira hetan ka sai sasin ba diskriminasaun, violénsia ka vítima ba violasaun direitu umanu durante estadu emerjénsia bele kontaktu ba:
  • Keixa online: https://pdhj.tl/case-handling/hoo-kesar/
  • PDHJ Dili (kobre Dili no Liquiça): 77131984/ 77304262/ 77656741
  • PDHJ Baucau (kobre Baucau, Lautem, Manatuto no Viqueque): 78098414/ 77391414/ 77303908
  • PDHJ Manufahi (kobre Manufahi, Aileu no Ainaro): 77720220/ 77895795
  • PDHJ RAEOA: 77230344/ 77532529/ 76998952
  • PDHJ Bobonaro (kobre Bobonaro, Covalima no Ermera): 77998521/ 77742696

Bele halo kontaktu ba La'o Hamutuk iha Bebora, Dili.  Telefone: 77234330