17 October 2012

Timor-Leste mós selu barak liu ba kombustivel

Bainhira kondutór no motorista sira hadau malu atu hetan litru gazolina tan ne’ebé sira bele sosa, Diresaun Nasionál Estatístika (DNE) hosi Ministériu Finansa RDTL publika sira nia relatóriu ne’ebé foti kestaun interesante kona-ba importasaun kombustivel ba Timor-Leste. Tuir relatóriu ida ne’e, Alfándega hateten ba DNE katak Timor-Leste importa tokon $39 ba gazolina no gazoel durante 2011 ba uzu públiku, komersiál no privadu nian tomak.

Relatóriu Ezekusaun Orsamentál ba 2011 ne’ebe Ministériu Finansa publika hatudu katak Estadu rasik gasta tokon $68 ba kombustivel ba veíkulu no jeradór sira. Bainhira sasán hirak ne’e importa, ida ne’e hare ba hanesan buat ruma la’o laloos katak Governu Timor-Leste selu barak liu duke valor sasán ne’ebé deklara sai tama mai rai laran.

Karik ita halo estimasaun ba kuantidade kombustivel ne’ebé jeradór no veíkulu sira uza hosi konsumidór kada ema no hosi setór privadu, montante total ne’ebé selu ba kombustivel iha Timor-Leste durante tinan kotuk maizumenus tokon $78, besik dala-rua kompara ho saida mak ita importa tuir relatóriu DNE.

La’o Hamutuk husu ba Diretór DNE kona-ba ida ne’e iha lansamentu Relatóriu Komérsiu iha semana kotuk, no nia hamnasa no hateten katak nia hatene de’it kona-ba informasaun importasaun nian ne’ebé nia simu hosi Diresaun Alfándega. La’o Hamutuk husu ba Komisáriu Anti Korrupsaun no Provedor ba Direitus Umanus no Justisa atu esplora katak korrupsaun ka maladministraun akontese duni ka lae.

Ita bele imajina esplikasaun balu:
  1. Importador kombustivel sira fó presu ba Estadu ho folin ne’ebé as liu ba kombustivel ne’ebé sira importa, atu halo lukru ne’ebé boot.
  2. Montante kombustivel ne’ebé tama mai iha Timor-Leste la hakat mai liu hosi Alfándega
  3. Estadu hetan kombustivel menus kompara ho montante ne’ebé sira selu ba
  4. Publikasaun númeru iha relatóriu ida seluk ka hosi relatóriu rua ne’e hotu ne’ebé mai hosi Ministériu Finansa nian laloos
Atu komprende liu tan kontradisaun ida ne’e, La’o Hamutuk mós hare ba semester primeiru 2012. DNE nia Indikadór Statistikal Trimestral nian hatudu tokon $32 ba importasaun kombustivel minerais tomak (inklui gazolina, gazoel, aviasaun, kerosene/mina-rai, LPG no kombustivel sira seluk) entre Janeiru to Juñu. Durante iha periodu ne’ebé hanesan, Relatóriu Ezekusaun Orsamentál nian indika katak Estadu gasta tokon $42 ba kombustivel ba veíkulu no jeradór sira. Maske diferensa ne’e ki’ik uitoan liu kompara iha 2011, Estadu Timor-Leste nafatin selu barak liu tan kompara ho valor importasaun ne’ebé deklara ona.

Tabela fó númeru iha rihun hosi dollar Estadus Unidus
Maske sentrál elétrika Hera ne’e fou-foun dezeña atu uza Oleo Pezadu, maibé to ohin loron sentrál ne’e uza kombustivel gazoel ne’ebé tula ho ró tama mai liu hosi Tibar no tula ho kamioneta hodi hakat Dili ba Hera. Deloitte nia audit (paragraf 3.3.2) dehan katak kombustivel ne’ebé atu uza ba jeradór sira ne’e uza ba veíkulu estadu no privadu nian, tanba ne’e, ami fiar katak ne’e serteza duni atu aumenta figura sira ba veíkulu no jeradór sira nian iha relatóriu ezekusaun, ba komparasaun ho total figura gazoel no gazolina iha relatóriu komérsiu nian.

La'o Hamutuk fiar katak inkonsistensia entre estadu nia gastu no importasaun kombustivel hatudu katak relatóriu balun publika ona kona ba ekonomia no despeza estadu nian iha valor no fasil atu analiza. Tanba ne'e, ami agradese Ministériu Finansas ne’ebé fó sai informasaun ida ne'e, no fó korajen ba ema no organizasaun seluk atu utiliza. Ita hotu bele aprende buat barak!

Timor-Leste gov't also pays too much for fuel

While Dili drivers were scrambling to find the next affordable litre of petrol, the National Statistics Directorate (DNE) of the RDTL Ministry of Finance released its 2011 Annual External Trade Statistics report (right), which raises interesting questions about fuel imports to Timor-Leste. According to this report, Customs told DNE that Timor-Leste imported $39 million worth of gasoline and diesel fuel during 2011 for all public, commercial and private use.

The 2011 Budget Execution Report (left) from the Ministry of Finance's National Treasury Directorate shows that the State alone spent $68 million for vehicle and generator fuel. Since all of this was imported, it seems odd that Timor-Leste’s government is paying much more than the declared value of what is coming into the country.

If we estimate the amount of generator and vehicle fuel used by personal and private sector consumers, the total amount paid for fuel in Timor-Leste last year may have been about $78 million, nearly double what DNE says was imported.

La'o Hamutuk asked the Director of DNE about this at the launch of the Trade Report last week, and he smiled and said he knows only about the import information the Customs Department provides to DNE. La’o Hamutuk is asking the Anti-Corruption Commissioner and the Provedor for Human Rights and Justice to explore whether corruption or maladministration has occurred.

We can imagine several explanations:
  1. Fuel importers are charging the State a very high markup on the fuel they import, making a large profit.
  2. A significant amount of fuel comes into Timor-Leste without passing through Customs.
  3. The State is getting less fuel than it pays for.
  4. The numbers published in one or both of these reports are wrong.
To better understand this confusing situation, La'o Hamutuk also looked into the first half of 2012. DNE’s Quarterly Statistical Indicators show $32 million worth of mineral fuels (including gasoline, diesel, aviation, kerosene, LPG and other fuels) was imported between January and June. During the same period, the Budget Execution Report indicates that the State spent $42 million on vehicle and generator fuel. Although the discrepancy is a little smaller than in 2011, Timor-Leste is still paying much more than the declared value of the imported fuel.

Here are the details, in thousands of U.S. dollars
Although the Hera Power plant was designed to run on heavy oil, to date it has been using diesel fuel shipped into Tibar and trucked across Dili to Hera. Deloitte's audit of EDTL (paragraph 3.3.2) found that fuel intended for generators is "often" diverted for state or private vehicle use. Therefore, we decided to total the vehicle and generator fuel figures in the execution report, and compare them with the total of diesel and gasoline figures in the trade report.

La'o Hamutuk believes that the apparent contradiction between State purchases and fuel imports demonstrates that published reports about the economy and state spending are useful and are not difficult to analyze. We appreciate that the Ministry of Finance has made this data available, and we encourage others to also use it. There's a lot to learn!

Update, 30 October:

In late October, Timor-Leste decided to award a $50.4 million contract to Esperanca Timor Oan to import and supply 47 million liters of diesel fuel for the Hera power plant. Click for more information. The Government will pay $1.07 per liter, at least 16¢ more than it should cost to buy this fuel in Singapore or Indonesia, ship it to Tibar, and pay Timor-Leste excise tax and import duty.

16 October 2012

Public mtg: What does TL need after UNMIT?

  
Invitation to La’o Hamutuk Public Meeting
What does Timór-Leste need from the International Community after UNMIT’s mandate ends?

Tuesday 23 October 2012.    9:00 am - 12:15 pm
Dili University (UNDIL), Mascarenhas, Dili
Uphill from the Alola Foundation, across from the former CNE office

La’o Hamutuk invites the public to participate in a discussion about the mandate of UNMIT in Timor-Leste which will finish this December.

During the mandates of the UN in Timor-Leste since 1999, UN assistance has helped achieve some good results, such as the creation of a democratic state under rule of law, with peace and security. Unfortunately UNMIT has not yet implemented some important commitments, including ending impunity for crimes against humanity committed during the Indonesian occupation. In addition, the UN and the State of Timor-Leste have not yet chosen a sustainable and inclusive development path.

The people of Timor-Leste, together with our leaders, must take responsibility for these gaps after UNMIT leaves.

Speakers:
  • Deputy Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General, Shigeru Mochida 
Reflections on the successes of UN missions in Timor-Leste and what remains to be achieved
  • RDTL Minister of Foreign Affairs, José Luis Guterres 
Reflections on hopes for what the UN Missions were not able to do during their time in Timór-Leste
  • Representative, ETAN, Jill Sternberg 
International solidarity from ETAN now and in the future after UNMIT ends
  • Director, Fundasaun Mahein, Nelson Belo 
The Security Sector after UNMIT’s mandate finishes
  • Researcher, La’o Hamutuk, Inês Martins 
Sustainable development after UNMIT finishes
The public meeting will be in Tetum and English. We are grateful for your attention and participation.

Enkontru públiku La’o Hamutuk nian
Saida mak Timór-Leste presiza husi Komunidade Internasionál hafoin mandatu UNMIT remata?
Tersa feira 23 Outubru 2012,  tuku 09:00 dadeer to’o 12:15 meudia
Fatin: Universidade Dili (UNDIL) Maskariñas, Dili
Fundasaun Alola nia leten ba, Ex. Edifísiu CNE nia oin

La’o Hamutuk konvida públiku atu mai partisipa diskusaun relasiona ho mandatu UNMIT iha Timór-Leste nia ne’ebé sei remata iha fulan Dezembru tinan ida ne’e.

Durante mandatu Nasoins Unidas iha Timór-Leste dezde 1999, ONU nia asisténsia ajuda atinje rezultadu balu di’ak, hanesan kriasaun estadu direitu demokrátiku, ho dame no seguransa. Infelizmente, UNMIT seidauk implementa kompromisu importante balun, inklui hakotu impunidade husi krime kontra umanidade ne’ebé akontese durante okupasaun Indonézia. Ida seluk, UN no estadu Timór-Leste seidauk hili polítika ba dezenvolvimentu ho diresaun ida ne’ebé sustentável no inklusivu.

Lakuna hirak ne’e povu Timór-Leste hamutuk ho nia ukun na’in sira mak tenke simu responsabilidade hafoin UNMIT sai.

Oradór sira:

  • Vice-Reprezentante Espesiál Sekretáriu Jerál ONU, Shigeru Mochida 
Reflesaun kona ba susesu ne’ebé Misaun ONU halo iha Timór-Leste no saida mak seidauk atinje

  • Ministru Negósiu Estranjeiru, RDTL nian José Luis Guterres 
Reflesaun kona ba esperansa ba buat ne’ebé misaun ONU la konsege halo durante nia misaun iha Timór-Leste

  • Reprezentante ETAN, Jill Sternberg
    Solidariedade Internasionál husi ETAN agora no ba futuru hafoin UNMIT remata

  • Diretór Fundasaun Mahein, Nelson Belo 
Analiza setór seguransa hafoin mandatu UNMIT remata

  • Peskizadór La’o Hamutuk, Inês Martins 
Dezenvolvimentu sustentável hafoin misaun UNMIT remata
Enkontru públiku ne’e la’o iha lian Tetum no Inglés. Mak ne’e de’it ami nia konvite ba ita boot sira nia atensaun no partisipasaun la haluha hato’o obrigadu barak.

11 October 2012

Komentariu ba PN kona-ba Orsamentu Retifikativu

Submisaun ba Parlamentu Nasionál
Hosi La’o Hamutuk
Kona-ba Proposta Orsamentu Retifikativu 2012
10 Outubru 2012

Konteúdu
  • Ajustamentu tinan ne’e husik tusan ba 2013.
  • Retifikasaun loloos liu montante tokon $54.
  • Orsamentu nafatin la responde ba jéneru.
  • Transferénsia osan justifika duvida ba projetu Tasi Mane.
  • Ita labele la’o hela de’it iha dalan “urjente”.
  • Parlamentu tenke husu informasaun tan kona-ba Fundu Kontinjénsia.
  • Osan ba veteranu: direitu ka kumpre promesa eleisaun?

Ba da uluk La’o Hamutuk hakarak hato’o parabéns ba terseiru lejizlativa Parlamentu Nasionál ne’ebé foin eleitu, hodi espera katak lejizlativa ida ne’e bele hala’o knar ne’ebé di’ak liu atu benefisia interese povu Timor-Leste tomak nian. Iha fulan Jullu liu ba, ami hakerek karta ida  ba ita-boot sira bainhira foin hetan pose nudár reprezentante povu, ami espera katak ho ami nia karta no ami nia submisaun ida ne’e bele kria no haforsa liu tan ita nia relasaun no komunikasaun ba futuru.

Maske Komisaun Parlamentu Nasionál la fó konvite ba organizasaun sosiedade sivíl sira, inklui La’o Hamutuk atu ba audiénsia públiku hanesan tinan hirak liu ba atu hato’o apresiasaun ba Orsamentu Retifikativu 2012 ne’e. Maibé iha biban ne’e ami nafatin hakarak hato’o ami nia komentáriu no apresiasaun hanesan tuir mai ho esperansa katak hanoin hirak ne’e bele ajuda liu tan ita-boot sira hodi halo desizaun ida ne’ebé di’ak no matenek liu ba futuru Timor-Leste.

Ajustamentu tinan ne’e husik tusan ba 2013.


Proposta Orsamentu Retifikativu 2012 hateten (hare pajina 8) katak “retifikativu ida ne’e la aumenta total despeza Governu nian,” no “sei redús orsamentu Fundu Infrastrutura nian” nudár poupansá ba despeza estadu adisionál iha 2012.

Maibé infelizmente, mudansa orsamentál ida ne’e hanesan fali Governu empresta hela osan projetu Tasi Mane no dotasaun ba instalasaun kuadru prepagu EDTL nian iha Orsamentu Jerál 2012, no hanoin atu selu fali “empréstimu” ne’e iha Orsamentu Jerál Estadu 2013 ne’ebé sei mai daudaun. [Exposição de Motivos: “Foram transferidos do Fundo das Infra-estruturas $50 milhões de dois projectos do Tasi Mane, com a condição de serem repostos em 2013.”]

Nune’e, loloos retifikasaun ne’e sei aumenta tokon $54 ba tokon $1,674 ne’ebé Parlamentu Nasionál aprova tiha ona. Maske aumenta ho montante relativamente ki’ik, maibé karik ita hare ho didi’ak, lala’ok orsamentál hanesan ne’e sei kria obrigasaun atu aumenta orsamentu estadu iha futuru.

Iha ami nia submisaun lubuk ba Parlamentu Nasionál iha pasadu, ami fila-fila ona hateten katak ita nia rekursu naturais ne’e uitoan de’it. Karik ita gasta lalais no la kuidadu, ita sei hamamuk ita nia rezerva petrolíferu, riku-soin prinsipál ne’ebé ita iha, no sei halo susar ita nia jerasaun sira iha futuru. Ohin ema barak kontente hela ho ita nia Fundu Petrolíferu, maibé, ita labele orgullu ba ida ne’e de’it bainhira ita labele asegura atu benefisia osan sira ne’e ba povu tomak.

Iha loron 29 Agostu liu ba, Ministra Finansa Emilia Pires hateten katak envelope fiskál ba tinan orsamentál 2013 nian sei tun ba biliaun $1.3. Ami apresia teb-tebes mudansa diresaun orsamentál ida ne’e, ne’ebé durante ne’e ami advoka katak hodi bele ajuda Timor-Leste atu labele monu kle’an liu ba malisan rekursu.

Ita nia inflasaun sa’e maka’as liu tanba despeza públiku ne’ebé sa’e maka’as tinan-tinan laho kreximentu kapasidade ba produsaun lokál. Nune’e ami sujere ba Parlamentu Nasionál atu hare kle’an liu ba gastu Governu nian hodi hamenus despeza sira balu ne’ebé la nesesáriu hodi bele ajuda Timor-Leste nia ekonomia.

05 October 2012

Filling gaps in "Taxing Times"

The excellent new ABC Television Four Corners documentary Taxing Times in Timor highlights critical issues for Timor-Leste, and will open they eyes of Australians and others. The focus of the program – Timor-Leste's fight against oil companies who are ripping off this new, small, impoverished country – is important for people everywhere.

Two years ago, La'o Hamutuk researched and wrote Making the Oil Companies Pay What They Owe, which we just updated. We are writing this blog to fill some gaps in the program, especially for people who live in or want to know more about Timor-Leste.

Unfortunately, the program often reports Timorese politicians' public relations, rather than their actions or underlying facts. Nearly everyone interviewed is on the Government payroll. The few alternative voices (opposition leader Mari Alkatiri, the World Bank’s Hans Beck, La’o Hamutuk’s Charles Scheiner) are edited to unreservedly support Government policies, giving a partial picture of their views.

Prime Minister Xanana Gusmão appropriately focuses on the tremendous needs for education, nutrition, agriculture and rural roads. Unfortunately, the failure to adequately address these needs does not come from foreign advisors or lack of money, but from the Government’s own budget and implementation policies. Timor-Leste  spends much less on health and education than other developing countries. Three-fourths of our people are farmers, but only 1.4% of public spending is for agriculture. Only one-third of the money allocated for roads last year was actually used. Infrastructure mega projects – especially oil-fueled electricity and Tasi Mane oil facilities, consume the majority of public funding, with questionable returns.

The key question is not how many dollars to spend, but how to get the best value from Timor-Leste’s finite, nonrenewable resource wealth. In 2011, 46% of all state expenditures went for electricity. The $1.2 billion national electricity project costs five times what it would cost to put solar panels on every house in the country. Fuel and maintenance of the power plants and national grid will cost more than this one-time investment in solar panels which require no fuel, local grids, and little maintenance. Currently, ratepayers pay less than one-quarter of the cost of generating power, so Timor-Leste’s limited funds will subsidize affluent people who use the most kilowatt-hours.

Similarly, Timor-Leste's government will 'invest' 5-10 billion dollars in the Tasi Mane south coast petroleum infrastructure project with few spin-off benefits and no demonstrable net financial return. Investments in Timor-Leste’s human resources -- health care, sanitation, nutrition, and primary education -- would generate a more certain result. Investments for economic development should prioritize agriculture and light industry, creating jobs while producing food and products to substitute for imports.

The documentary misleads viewers by ignoring the first and largest greatest theft of Timor-Leste’s oil reserves – Australia’s continuing ‘occupation’ of 40% of our oil and gas wealth by refusing to negotiate a maritime boundary. In the map at right, everything above the green line, including the blue and orange areas with all of Greater Sunrise, Bayu-Undan, Kitan and Laminaria-Corallina, would belong to Timor-Leste under current international law.

In 2006, Australia coerced Timor-Leste's negotiators into accepting a "gag rule" in the CMATS Treaty which prohibits this government from talking about maritime boundaries in any forum. Although the treaty may expire next February, the injustice of this arrangement, compounded by the arrogance of Woodside which was vividly portrayed in the documentary, is at the heart of the controversy over the Greater Sunrise pipeline.


Timor-Leste's determination to bring this gas to our shores is deeper than the dubious economic reasons examined in La'o Hamutuk's 2008 report. It is at the core of this nation's struggle for sovereignty. ConocoPhillips, Woodside, Shell and other companies drilled for oil in Timor-Leste's maritime territory during the illegal Indonesian occupation, and their current tax evasions continue this pattern of stealing from the Timorese people. 

Timor-Leste’s total oil and gas wealth is limited, totaling $40-$50 billion, so $3 billion in unpaid taxes is significant. But at current spending and economic growth trends, these reserves – which finance more than 95% of State activities and two-thirds of our entire economy -- could be used up in about 12 years. We welcome the billions which will be recovered through more effective tax collection – but they can only delay bankruptcy by one or two years.

Four Corners persuaded a fairly new World Bank official to acknowledge that the Bank faulted itself for encouraging Timor-Leste not to spend unsustainably. This does not accurately reflect the 232-page review by the Bank’s Independent Evaluation Group (9 MB), which rated the “overall outcome” of the Bank’s support to Timor-Leste during 2000-2010 years as “moderately unsatisfactory.” The Bank’s IEG found only one sector of the Bank’s work “highly satisfactory” -- “assistance to Timor-Leste in securing its petroleum revenues and managing them transparently.” On the other hand, the IEG concluded that the Bank was “unsatisfactory” on poverty and unemployment alleviation, youth unemployment and disaffection, legislation, private sector development and agriculture.

A seven-page response from Finance Minister Emilia Pires is appended to the IEG’s report, praising the Bank’s openness and methodology, while pointing out the shortage of concrete data. However, the Minister praised as a “contribution to data enhancement” a 2010 “Poverty assessment” by the Bank which “demonstrated a 9% reduction in poverty [from 50% in 2007 to 41% in 2009] … as a result of newly exercised social and expansionary fiscal policies.” The Government and others cited this number repeatedly, but the Bank had invented it with a questionable statistical “imputation” which did not measure poverty.

Unfortunately, both the Government and the Bank were wrong about 2009, and the poor are still with us. The Government's as-yet-unreleased 2011 Household Income and Expenditure Survey, based on people’s actual living situations, confirms that the Bank’s prediction of reduced poverty in 2009 was erroneous.  The sad reality is that in 2011 about 50% of Timorese families were below the poverty line, just as in 2007, which means that about 70,000 more people are in poverty.


Government spending has increased eight-fold since 2007, with total expenditures of about $4 billion. The GDP growth from this deluge of dollars – mostly flowing to foreign companies – has enriched a few people, barely touching the impoverished rural majority. We need inclusive, sustainable, equitable development.

In this democratic, sovereign nation, Timor-Leste’s officials choose what advice to follow. We hope they base their decisions on objective, comprehensive, long-term, fact-based analysis, and not on self-serving agendas or unrealizable fantasies. La’o Hamutuk believes that the Four Corners team shares this goal, but unfortunately the latter part of Taxing Times in Timor does not reflect it.