26 June 2013
TL Donors Conference materials online
22 June 2013
Gov. & parseiru sira tenke dezenvolve ekonomia ho sériu
Durante loron 19-20 Juñu 2013, Ministériu Finansas Timor-Leste nian sai na’in ba Reuniaun Anuál ho Parseirus Dezenvolvimentu Timor-Leste nian (TLDPM) iha Dili. Fongtil husu La'o Hamutuk atu fó aprezentasaun kona ba Dezenvolvimentu Ekonómiku, no ami halo blog ida ne'e husi aprezentasaun ida ne'e. Ita bele hetan aprezentasaun no dokumentu sira iha Tetum no Ingles husi ami nia pájina web kona-ba TLDPM 2013. PowerPoint husi aprezentasaun ida ne'e (mós Ingles).
Deklarasaun Sosiedade Sivíl
Ami fiar katak Governu no Parseiru Dezenvolvimentu hatudu ona sira nia jenuínu atu dezenvolve rai ida ne’e, no ami espera katak dezenvolvimentu sira ne’e sei hamenus dezafiu ne’ebé Timor-Leste hasoru, hanesan falta rekursu umanus, dependénsia ba petróleu, dependénsia maka’as ba importasaun, ignora dezenvolvimentu setór naun petróleu, no mós kualidade despeza estadu nian ne’ebé sei fraku. Tanba ne’e, ami sujere ba Governu no Parseiru Dezenvolvimentu sira atu rona hanoin sira husi ema barak no instituisaun sira seluk hodi muda polítika ba dezenvolve ekonomia ne’ebé ekuitavel no sustentável. Katak garante povu hotu iha direitu hanesan atu hetan distribuisaun rikusoin liu husi asesu ba setór edukasaun, saúde, bee mós no agrikultura. Ekonomia wainhira sustentável iha ne’ebé bele dezenvolve mós iha futuru la’ós iha tinan balu nia laran de’it.
Timor-Leste moris tiha ona iha “malisan rekursu” nia laran, no ami fiar katak parseiru dezenvolvimentu sira iha knar importante atu ajuda ami nia Governu hodi lori nasaun ne’e sai hosi malisan ida ne’e. Ami sempre fiar katak úniku dalan ne’ebé Timor-Leste tenke foti mak dezenvolve “Konseitu Dezenvolvimentu Ekonomia ida ne’ebé mak Ekuitavel no Sustentável”.
Durante tinan rua ne’e, despeza estadu nian barak liu ba setór infrastrutura fíziku liu-liu iha Projetu Tasi Mane no Eletrisidade. Ita ignora tiha atu dezenvolve infrastrutura umanu, edukasaun, saúde, agrikultura no peska, bee moos, indústria ki’ik no eko-turismu-setor ida ne’ebé bele hadi’a povu maioria ninia moris.
Tanba ne’e, ami sujere atu ita muda diresaun hodi prioritiza setór servisu sosiál nian ba futuru. Bainhira ita la hahú muda diresaun ida ne’e ohin loron, ita sei laiha tan rekursu atu dezenvolve setór sira ne’e, bainhira ita nia riku-soin petróleu no gas ne’ebé limitadu ne’e mamuk tiha ona iha dékada oin mai.
Timor-Leste nudár nasaun segundu iha mundu mak nia ekonomia depende liu ba esportasaun petróleu no gas. Osan barak ne’ebé suli hosi rekursu naun renovavel ida ne’e halo ita ignora tiha dezenvolve setór potensiál seluk ne’ebé bele substitui petróleu bainhira ita nia rekursu petróleu maran tiha ona bele sustenta ita hafoin mina hotu.
Agrikultura mak setór ida ne’ebé importante ba futuru Timor-Leste, atu sustenta no fornese meius subsistensia ba ita nia povu maioria. Infelizmente setór ida ne’e la hetan prioridade hosi Governu, ne’ebé hetan de’it 2% hosi Orsamentu Estadu tinan ida ne’e.
Konta Nasionál 2000-2011 ne’ebé foin lalais ne’e publika hosi Diresaun Jerál Estatístika (DJE) nian foka sai katak husi total ita nia Gross Domestic product (GDP) iha 2011 iha biliaun $5.8, no 81% ne’e mai hosi ekstrasaun petróleu no gas. “GDP naun petrolíferu” maizumenus biliaun $1.1 de’it. Maske nune’e, metade hosi GDP naun petróleu ida ne’e mai hosi despeza estadu rasik ne’ebé besik 94% mai hosi rendimentu petrolíferu.
Ita nia dependénsia ba importasaun aumenta beibeik. Durante 2011, Timor-Leste esporta tokon $34 iha bens (esklui mina-rai) no tokon $77 ba iha servisu, no importa tokon $325 iha bens no tokon $1,033 ba servisu (la inklui setór petróleu). Tinan 2012, importasaun sasán aumenta dala rua: tokon $670 ba sasán tomak hanesan ekipamentu eletrisidade, kombustivel, veíkulu, besi, foos, bebidas no simentu. No ita nia esportasaun tokon $31 de’it, ne’ebé maioria mai hosi kafé. Ohin deficit merkadoria hirak ne’e ita bele taka ho osan hosi reseita petróleu. Maibé bainhira ita la dezenvolve setór ekonomia naun-petróleu nian no redús importasaun ohin, ita sei la iha osan atu importa ka fó asisténsia sosiál bainhira ita nia rezerva mina-rai no gas maran. [Fonte: RDTL DGE Quarterly Statistical Indicators (4q2012) no 2011 External Trade Statistics.]
Tanba ne’e, ami husu ba ita nia Parseiru Dezenvolvimentu sira bele ajuda Governu hodi suporta agrikultór sira atu aumenta sira nia produsaun, aumenta sira nia matenek no ajuda sira ho teknolojia sira ne’ebé sustentável no apropriadu ba sira nia moris. Maske nune’e, ami hein katak ajuda sira ne’e la’ós atu importa tan fini, adubu kímiku no sosa tratór ne’ebé la sustentável no sei estraga meiu-ambiente. Basa, ami fiar katak uza teknolojia sira ne’ebé la sustentável sei estraga prinsipiu no valor sósiu kulturál.
Inflasaun hanehan maka’as ema kiak, hamenus kapasidade atu sosa sasán, no sei aumenta pobreza ba sira ne’ebé hela iha area rural no mós sira ne’ebé laiha servisu. Ita nia inflasaun ida ne’e akontese tanba ita la konsege kria ekonomia produtivu ida ne’ebé forte iha rai laran atu bele absorve despeza estadu nian ne’ebé sa’e maka’as tinan-tinan.
Aleinde ne’e, distribuisaun rekursu ekonomia tomak la justu ba povu sira, liu-liu sira ne’ebé hela iha area rural. Maski ekonomia maiór parte husi esporta mina no gas, ne’ebé pertense ba povu tomak, so grupu ki’ik oan ida husi klase aas mak hetan benefísiu boot. 10% ema sira ne’ebé riku liu hetan rendimentu dala 14 kompara ho rendimentu ne’ebé kiak liu 10%, maski agrikultura subsistensia no barter inklui ona. Medida rendimentu perkapita kada fulan nian iha tokon $40 no ki’ik liu mak tokon $24 iha Oecusse. Ida ne’e hatudu katak metade hosi populasaun Timor-Leste ne’e nia rendimentu menus $1.33 ba kada ema ba kada loron. [Fonte: RDTL DGE Household Income and Expenditure Survey 2011.]
Ita hotu tenke servisu hamutuk atu enfrenta dezafiu atu muda situasaun sira ne’e ba dalan ida ne’ebé sustentável liu. Mudansa sistema ekonomia, dezenvolve setór naun petróleu, liu-liu agrikultura no peska atu ita bele fornese ai han ba ita nia an rasik. Barak ko’alia kona ba “ekonomia inklusivu,” maibé fó benefísiu ba ema uitoan de’it, ita tenke koko hamutuk atu atinje justisa ekonómiku, ne’ebé ema hotu hetan no simu nia parte justu.
Ita tenke iha esforsu atu atinje soberania ai han, no valorija ita nia kolleita no prodús sasán ba nesesidade bázika hodi substitui sasán maioria mak ita importa hela. Indústria ki’ik no prosesamentu agríkola no peska ba konsumu lokál bele hadi’ak balansu komérsiu no fó servisu, no mós sei ajuda ita atu ekonomikamente no mós polítikamente sai independente duni. Iha tempu ne’ebé hanesan, turizmu no fatin ba merkadu esportasaun bele aumenta vizita estranjeiru.
Ami husu ba Parseiru Dezenvolvimentu Timor Leste atu ajuda ami atu prodús ba ami nia merkadu doméstiku hanesan“value added” ba povu Timor-Leste rasik, duke luta atu kompete hasoru agrikultura indústria sira husi nasaun seluk.
Ba tinan ida ne’e, ami apresia tebes ba esforsu Governu hodi redús nivel kreximentu orsamentu estadu nian. Ami hanoin mudansa ida ne’e tenke kontinua no mós akompaña ho dezeñu orsamentu ida ne’ebé realistiku liu ba despeza infrastrutura nian, basa, partikulármente ida ne’e sei ajuda orsamentu tuir liña realidade nian.
Redús nivel kreximentu orsamentál ida ne’e iha tinan ne’e hatún osan ne’ebé atu foti hosi Fundu Petrolíferu hodi la’o tuir nivel Rendimentu Sustentável Estimadu, Governu foti biliaun $0.8 hosi Fundu Petrolíferu kompara ho 2012 ne’ebé foti biliaun $1.5. Ami hein atu disiplina Governu nian ida ne’e tenke la’o iha tinan sira oin mai, atu nune’e bele garante iha fiskál sustentabilidade ekonomia ba jerasaun sira ohin loron no mós ba jerasaun sira ne’ebé sei mai. Maske, nune’e ita hatene katak bele iha redusaun iha 2013 tanba tinan kotuk ita hasai barak liu duke ita presiza; 41% orsamentu 2013 finansia ho osan mak foti husi Fundu Petrolíferu durante 2012, no 48% seluk sei selu husi osan foun ne’ebé foti husi Fundu Petrolíferu.
Despeza rekorente iha OJE 2013, 21% as liu kompara ho gastu OJE 2012, eskala neineik liu duke 37% sa'e husi 2011 ba 2012, maibé kreximentu ida ne’e nafatin la sustentável. Ema barak ladún fiar katak Timor-Leste nia situasaun ekonomia iha hela perigu nia laran tanba ita iha biliaun $14 ne’ebé rai hela iha Fundu Petrolíferu.
Ita besik laiha ekonomia doméstiku ida ne’ebé produtivu atu bele absorve osan sira ne’ebé fakar sai ne’e. Agrikultura ne’ebé akumula 80% populasaun tenke sai nudár baze ba kriasaun ekonomia doméstiku. Maibé OGE 2013 sei gasta $144 ba iha Projetu Tasi Mane, maski nune’e sei gastu osan biliaun 10 ka liu se wainhira atu halo hotu. Despeza ba Projetu Tasi Mane tinan ida ne'e inklui Baze Fornesimentu iha Suai, Aeroporto Suai, no Auto-estrada Suai-Beacu.
Ami duvida tebes katak Projetu Tasi Mane sei lori benefisiu ba povu maioria, tanba gastu publiku ba projetu ne’e barak liu duke atu hetan retornu. Ne’e sei fornese númeru servisu uitoan de’it, no ita fó subsídiu boot liu ba kompañia sira husi rai li’ur. Agrikultór sei lakon rai ba prodús ai-han no dependénsia ba importasaun sai boot liu, no mós pobreza sei sai maka’as liu bainhira osan mina hotu ona. Ami hein katak Parseiru Dezenvolvimentu, bele ajuda Governu no sosiedade sivíl, hatudu analiza realistiku ba kustu, benefísiu no viabilidade husi Projetu Tasi Mane antes kontratu obrigatóriu Timor-Leste atu selu atus tokon dolar balun ba konstrusaun, ne’ebé sei bele akontese iha fulan balu.
Aleinde ne’e Projetu Tasi Mane, ohin loron Governu hakarak gastu osan barak tan ba aeroportu Dili, Zona Ekonómiku Esklusivu Oecusse, Portu Tibar, ponte rua Comoro, ne’ebé ita sei duvida hela mós nia benefísiu. International Financial Corporation (IFC) ajuda dezeña portu no aeroportu, bazeia ba asumsaun la realistiku enormemente aumenta importasaun no viajen aereas. Ami preokupa bainhira Parseiru Dezenvolvimentu sira nia “ajudu” ne’e atu halo aat liu malisan rekursu ba Timor-Leste, aloka parsela bot husi rekursu públiku atu benefisia ba ita nia povu minoria de’it.
Tanba ne’e, ami husu ba Parseiru Dezenvolvimentu sira atu bele ko’alia onestu ba ami nia Governu, hodi ajuda desizor polítiku atu kompriende katak mega projetu ne’e la realistiku ameasa justisa ekonómiku no futuru Timor-oan tomak nian. Ajuda ami investe iha rekursu umanu, jestaun di’ak ba polítika fiskál no orienta ba dezenvolvimentu ekuitavel no sustentável. Timor-Leste presiza imi tau prioridade ba programa sira hodi ajuda ami nia povu kiak no vulneravel sira, nafatin fornece ba sira no sira nia gerasaun.
Problema sira ne’e sei bele redús bainhira iha investimentu ida ne’ebé sériu ba setór servisu sosiál ida ne’e. Maske iha OJE 2013 ne’e hadi’ak liu uitoan iha saúde hanesan atu sosa ekipamentu médiku nian ne’ebé importante, maibé OJE ne’e nafatin aloka de’it 4.2%, menus metade kompara ho norma global.
Setór edukasaun mós nafatin ladún hetan atensaun OJE 2013 aloka de’it 8.4%, maske iha aumenta osan uitoan kompara ho tinan 2012 7.0%. Nasaun sub-dezenvolvidu sira ne’ebé valorija sira nia povu gasta maizumenus 20% hosi sira orsamentu estadu nian ba edukasaun. Nasaun sira iha progresu atinje MDG tanba sira gastu 28% husi gastu estadu ba iha edukasaun no saúde.
Daudauk ne’e, Governu halo hela prosesu konsultasaun atu identifika oinsá Timor-Leste bele atinje Objetivu Dezenvolvimentu Miléniu nian iha setór sira hanesan edukasaun no saúde. Atu atinje padraun sira ne’e, Governu no Parseiru Dezenvolvimentu sira tenke sériu atu investe maka’as no prioritiza setór sira ne’e, atu hadi’ak kualidade servisu no povu bele asesu. Ami fiar katak hadi’ak kualidade povu nia moris no rekursu umanu sai hanesan aliserse fundamental ba nasaun Timor-Leste ninia dezenvolvimentu.
Durante ne’e, setór privadu sira iha Timor-Leste haluha atu investe ba setór sira ne’ebé bele fornese kampu traballu ba nia ema sira. Hosi forsa laboral na’in 600,000 iha Timor-Leste ne’e, 70% depende ba setór agrikultór, servisu informal, no menus husi 10% mak servisu iha empreza privadu inklui kontraktor Governu nian. Setór privadu tenke fó prioridade ba agrikultura, ne’ebé bele hamenus kiak no dezenvolve ekonomia.
Ema na’in 58,200 mak servisu iha setór privadu, hosi sira ne’e 75% traballadór sira ne’e mesak mane. Hosi ne’e, ema na’in 18,000 servisu iha empreza konstrusaun. Kompañia na’in sira foti maioria barak liu husi lukru ne’ebé sira hetan, no investe fila fali oituan liu duke atu haboot sira nia empreza no mós Timor-Leste. Liu-liu kompañia ne’ebé baze iha Dili ki’ik liu- maski sira nia lukru sa’e 44%, husi 2010 too 2011 re-investe tun duni ba 38%, valor menus husi 9% husi lukru. Empreza distritu di’ak liu- sira investe husi metade lukru sira, boot liu kompara iha tinan 2010. Ita nia setór privadu tenke hanoin ba futuru sira nian, nune’e mósita nia nasaun nia futuru. [Fonte: RDTL DGE Business Activities Survey 2011.]
Alende, kontraktor lokál no internasionál presiza prodús servisu ho kualidade di’ak. Ita nia Governu no Parseiru Dezenvolvimentu bele servisu ho ita nia setór empreza atu dezenvolve ekuitavel no sustentabilidade Timor-Leste, ho kualidade projetu no kualidade moris, ba tempu naruk, ka lae?
Ohin loron, Timor-Leste iha benefisiáriu barak -- empresariu kontraktor, veteranu, funsionáriu públiku - ne’ebé moris husi rikusoin mina nian no mós generozidade parseiru dezenvolvimentu nian. Sosiedade tomak ita -- sosiedade sivíl, Estadu, setór privadu, parseiru dezenvolvimentu no kada sidadaun -- tenke fokus ba ita nia osan, ita nia rekursu, ita nia tempu no ita nia esforsu atu hadi’ak moris ba kada ema Timor-oan, inklui ita nia oan no bei-oan sira.
Se ita la servisu ho matenek liu maka’as liu ba hadi’ak futuru nian, se tan?
Deklarasaun Sosiedade Sivíl
ba Enkontru Timor-Leste ho Parseiru Dezenvolvimentu iha 2013
Setór Ekonómiku
Dezenvolve husi La'o Hamutuk, World Vision Timor-Leste, Kolping Nasionál Timor-Leste, Luta Hamutuk, Juventude ba Progresu no Lezival.
Timor-Leste presiza dezenvolve ekonomia ida ne’ebé ekuitavel no sustentável.
Ba da uluk, ami apresia tebes ba Governu Timor-Leste no Parseiru Dezenvolvimentu sira ne’ebé hadi’ak sira nia kooperasaun ho Sosiedade Sivíl, inklui apresia Yellow Road Workshop foin lalais ne’ebé hala’o ona husi Governu konvida ami atu diskute kona-ba dezenvolvimentu.Ami fiar katak Governu no Parseiru Dezenvolvimentu hatudu ona sira nia jenuínu atu dezenvolve rai ida ne’e, no ami espera katak dezenvolvimentu sira ne’e sei hamenus dezafiu ne’ebé Timor-Leste hasoru, hanesan falta rekursu umanus, dependénsia ba petróleu, dependénsia maka’as ba importasaun, ignora dezenvolvimentu setór naun petróleu, no mós kualidade despeza estadu nian ne’ebé sei fraku. Tanba ne’e, ami sujere ba Governu no Parseiru Dezenvolvimentu sira atu rona hanoin sira husi ema barak no instituisaun sira seluk hodi muda polítika ba dezenvolve ekonomia ne’ebé ekuitavel no sustentável. Katak garante povu hotu iha direitu hanesan atu hetan distribuisaun rikusoin liu husi asesu ba setór edukasaun, saúde, bee mós no agrikultura. Ekonomia wainhira sustentável iha ne’ebé bele dezenvolve mós iha futuru la’ós iha tinan balu nia laran de’it.
Timor-Leste moris tiha ona iha “malisan rekursu” nia laran, no ami fiar katak parseiru dezenvolvimentu sira iha knar importante atu ajuda ami nia Governu hodi lori nasaun ne’e sai hosi malisan ida ne’e. Ami sempre fiar katak úniku dalan ne’ebé Timor-Leste tenke foti mak dezenvolve “Konseitu Dezenvolvimentu Ekonomia ida ne’ebé mak Ekuitavel no Sustentável”.
Planu Estratéjiku Dezenvolvimentu presiza halo revizaun.
Ami apresia ba objetivu PEDN nian atu halakon pobreza no lori povu ba moris di’ak. Tinan rua ona Timor-Leste hahú atu implementa PEDN ne’e, no ita aprende ona buat balu husi esperiénsia, prosesu no mós ho informasaun foun ne’ebé iha. Ami fiar katak, ohin mak oportunidade di’ak ba ita atu halo revizaun no muda ita nia estratéjia hodi atinje objetivu PEDN.Durante tinan rua ne’e, despeza estadu nian barak liu ba setór infrastrutura fíziku liu-liu iha Projetu Tasi Mane no Eletrisidade. Ita ignora tiha atu dezenvolve infrastrutura umanu, edukasaun, saúde, agrikultura no peska, bee moos, indústria ki’ik no eko-turismu-setor ida ne’ebé bele hadi’a povu maioria ninia moris.
Tanba ne’e, ami sujere atu ita muda diresaun hodi prioritiza setór servisu sosiál nian ba futuru. Bainhira ita la hahú muda diresaun ida ne’e ohin loron, ita sei laiha tan rekursu atu dezenvolve setór sira ne’e, bainhira ita nia riku-soin petróleu no gas ne’ebé limitadu ne’e mamuk tiha ona iha dékada oin mai.
Ita tenke hasees-an hosi dependénsia petróleu ba dezenvolvimentu ne’ebé mak sustentável.
Agrikultura mak setór ida ne’ebé importante ba futuru Timor-Leste, atu sustenta no fornese meius subsistensia ba ita nia povu maioria. Infelizmente setór ida ne’e la hetan prioridade hosi Governu, ne’ebé hetan de’it 2% hosi Orsamentu Estadu tinan ida ne’e.
Konta Nasionál 2000-2011 ne’ebé foin lalais ne’e publika hosi Diresaun Jerál Estatístika (DJE) nian foka sai katak husi total ita nia Gross Domestic product (GDP) iha 2011 iha biliaun $5.8, no 81% ne’e mai hosi ekstrasaun petróleu no gas. “GDP naun petrolíferu” maizumenus biliaun $1.1 de’it. Maske nune’e, metade hosi GDP naun petróleu ida ne’e mai hosi despeza estadu rasik ne’ebé besik 94% mai hosi rendimentu petrolíferu.
Tanba ne’e, ami husu ba ita nia Parseiru Dezenvolvimentu sira bele ajuda Governu hodi suporta agrikultór sira atu aumenta sira nia produsaun, aumenta sira nia matenek no ajuda sira ho teknolojia sira ne’ebé sustentável no apropriadu ba sira nia moris. Maske nune’e, ami hein katak ajuda sira ne’e la’ós atu importa tan fini, adubu kímiku no sosa tratór ne’ebé la sustentável no sei estraga meiu-ambiente. Basa, ami fiar katak uza teknolojia sira ne’ebé la sustentável sei estraga prinsipiu no valor sósiu kulturál.
Kreximentu ekonomia “rua digitu” la’o ho inflasaun, la benefisia ema barak.
Beibeik no dala barak ona Governu liu hosi komunikadu, palestra no dokumentu ofisiál hateten katak, Timor-Leste iha kreximentu ekonomia non-oil GDP “rua digitu.” Ami triste tanba kreximentu ekonomia ida ne’e akompaña ho nivel inflasaun ida ne’ebé “rua digitu” mós, no aumenta pobreza no hamlaha maske nasaun ida ne’e gasta ona osan dolar biliaun ba biliaun.Inflasaun hanehan maka’as ema kiak, hamenus kapasidade atu sosa sasán, no sei aumenta pobreza ba sira ne’ebé hela iha area rural no mós sira ne’ebé laiha servisu. Ita nia inflasaun ida ne’e akontese tanba ita la konsege kria ekonomia produtivu ida ne’ebé forte iha rai laran atu bele absorve despeza estadu nian ne’ebé sa’e maka’as tinan-tinan.
Ita hotu tenke servisu hamutuk atu enfrenta dezafiu atu muda situasaun sira ne’e ba dalan ida ne’ebé sustentável liu. Mudansa sistema ekonomia, dezenvolve setór naun petróleu, liu-liu agrikultura no peska atu ita bele fornese ai han ba ita nia an rasik. Barak ko’alia kona ba “ekonomia inklusivu,” maibé fó benefísiu ba ema uitoan de’it, ita tenke koko hamutuk atu atinje justisa ekonómiku, ne’ebé ema hotu hetan no simu nia parte justu.
Ita tenke iha esforsu atu atinje soberania ai han, no valorija ita nia kolleita no prodús sasán ba nesesidade bázika hodi substitui sasán maioria mak ita importa hela. Indústria ki’ik no prosesamentu agríkola no peska ba konsumu lokál bele hadi’ak balansu komérsiu no fó servisu, no mós sei ajuda ita atu ekonomikamente no mós polítikamente sai independente duni. Iha tempu ne’ebé hanesan, turizmu no fatin ba merkadu esportasaun bele aumenta vizita estranjeiru.
Ami husu ba Parseiru Dezenvolvimentu Timor Leste atu ajuda ami atu prodús ba ami nia merkadu doméstiku hanesan“value added” ba povu Timor-Leste rasik, duke luta atu kompete hasoru agrikultura indústria sira husi nasaun seluk.
Governu tenke kontinua hamenus ninia gastu total.
Redús nivel kreximentu orsamentál ida ne’e iha tinan ne’e hatún osan ne’ebé atu foti hosi Fundu Petrolíferu hodi la’o tuir nivel Rendimentu Sustentável Estimadu, Governu foti biliaun $0.8 hosi Fundu Petrolíferu kompara ho 2012 ne’ebé foti biliaun $1.5. Ami hein atu disiplina Governu nian ida ne’e tenke la’o iha tinan sira oin mai, atu nune’e bele garante iha fiskál sustentabilidade ekonomia ba jerasaun sira ohin loron no mós ba jerasaun sira ne’ebé sei mai. Maske, nune’e ita hatene katak bele iha redusaun iha 2013 tanba tinan kotuk ita hasai barak liu duke ita presiza; 41% orsamentu 2013 finansia ho osan mak foti husi Fundu Petrolíferu durante 2012, no 48% seluk sei selu husi osan foun ne’ebé foti husi Fundu Petrolíferu.
Despeza rekorente iha OJE 2013, 21% as liu kompara ho gastu OJE 2012, eskala neineik liu duke 37% sa'e husi 2011 ba 2012, maibé kreximentu ida ne’e nafatin la sustentável. Ema barak ladún fiar katak Timor-Leste nia situasaun ekonomia iha hela perigu nia laran tanba ita iha biliaun $14 ne’ebé rai hela iha Fundu Petrolíferu.
Ita besik laiha ekonomia doméstiku ida ne’ebé produtivu atu bele absorve osan sira ne’ebé fakar sai ne’e. Agrikultura ne’ebé akumula 80% populasaun tenke sai nudár baze ba kriasaun ekonomia doméstiku. Maibé OGE 2013 sei gasta $144 ba iha Projetu Tasi Mane, maski nune’e sei gastu osan biliaun 10 ka liu se wainhira atu halo hotu. Despeza ba Projetu Tasi Mane tinan ida ne'e inklui Baze Fornesimentu iha Suai, Aeroporto Suai, no Auto-estrada Suai-Beacu.
Aleinde ne’e Projetu Tasi Mane, ohin loron Governu hakarak gastu osan barak tan ba aeroportu Dili, Zona Ekonómiku Esklusivu Oecusse, Portu Tibar, ponte rua Comoro, ne’ebé ita sei duvida hela mós nia benefísiu. International Financial Corporation (IFC) ajuda dezeña portu no aeroportu, bazeia ba asumsaun la realistiku enormemente aumenta importasaun no viajen aereas. Ami preokupa bainhira Parseiru Dezenvolvimentu sira nia “ajudu” ne’e atu halo aat liu malisan rekursu ba Timor-Leste, aloka parsela bot husi rekursu públiku atu benefisia ba ita nia povu minoria de’it.
Tanba ne’e, ami husu ba Parseiru Dezenvolvimentu sira atu bele ko’alia onestu ba ami nia Governu, hodi ajuda desizor polítiku atu kompriende katak mega projetu ne’e la realistiku ameasa justisa ekonómiku no futuru Timor-oan tomak nian. Ajuda ami investe iha rekursu umanu, jestaun di’ak ba polítika fiskál no orienta ba dezenvolvimentu ekuitavel no sustentável. Timor-Leste presiza imi tau prioridade ba programa sira hodi ajuda ami nia povu kiak no vulneravel sira, nafatin fornece ba sira no sira nia gerasaun.
Governu kontinua taka matan ba dezenvolvimentu umanu.
Ohin loron, ema barak mak preokupa kona-ba kualidade rekursu umanus Timor-oan sira nian. Labarik sira la estuda iha eskola, futuru labarik sira permanentemente limitadu- falta nutrisaun ai-han, tuir loloos ema seidauk bele mate maibe tanba sistema saúde labele ajuda sira nia moris. Oinsá ita bele alkansa direitu umanus, ne’ebé Timor-Leste ho kometimentu ratifika Akordu Internasionál kona ba Direitu Ekonómiku, Sosiál, no Kulturál, iha tinan sanulu kotuk?Setór edukasaun mós nafatin ladún hetan atensaun OJE 2013 aloka de’it 8.4%, maske iha aumenta osan uitoan kompara ho tinan 2012 7.0%. Nasaun sub-dezenvolvidu sira ne’ebé valorija sira nia povu gasta maizumenus 20% hosi sira orsamentu estadu nian ba edukasaun. Nasaun sira iha progresu atinje MDG tanba sira gastu 28% husi gastu estadu ba iha edukasaun no saúde.
Daudauk ne’e, Governu halo hela prosesu konsultasaun atu identifika oinsá Timor-Leste bele atinje Objetivu Dezenvolvimentu Miléniu nian iha setór sira hanesan edukasaun no saúde. Atu atinje padraun sira ne’e, Governu no Parseiru Dezenvolvimentu sira tenke sériu atu investe maka’as no prioritiza setór sira ne’e, atu hadi’ak kualidade servisu no povu bele asesu. Ami fiar katak hadi’ak kualidade povu nia moris no rekursu umanu sai hanesan aliserse fundamental ba nasaun Timor-Leste ninia dezenvolvimentu.
Setór privadu presiza investe futuru nasaun nian.
Timor-Leste presiza duni iha setór privadu ida ne’ebé forte atu bele ajuda dezenvolve nasaun Timor-Leste. Ita nia empreza la-bele depende osan husi estadu nafatin.Durante ne’e, setór privadu sira iha Timor-Leste haluha atu investe ba setór sira ne’ebé bele fornese kampu traballu ba nia ema sira. Hosi forsa laboral na’in 600,000 iha Timor-Leste ne’e, 70% depende ba setór agrikultór, servisu informal, no menus husi 10% mak servisu iha empreza privadu inklui kontraktor Governu nian. Setór privadu tenke fó prioridade ba agrikultura, ne’ebé bele hamenus kiak no dezenvolve ekonomia.
Alende, kontraktor lokál no internasionál presiza prodús servisu ho kualidade di’ak. Ita nia Governu no Parseiru Dezenvolvimentu bele servisu ho ita nia setór empreza atu dezenvolve ekuitavel no sustentabilidade Timor-Leste, ho kualidade projetu no kualidade moris, ba tempu naruk, ka lae?
Ohin loron, Timor-Leste iha benefisiáriu barak -- empresariu kontraktor, veteranu, funsionáriu públiku - ne’ebé moris husi rikusoin mina nian no mós generozidade parseiru dezenvolvimentu nian. Sosiedade tomak ita -- sosiedade sivíl, Estadu, setór privadu, parseiru dezenvolvimentu no kada sidadaun -- tenke fokus ba ita nia osan, ita nia rekursu, ita nia tempu no ita nia esforsu atu hadi’ak moris ba kada ema Timor-oan, inklui ita nia oan no bei-oan sira.
Se ita la servisu ho matenek liu maka’as liu ba hadi’ak futuru nian, se tan?
21 June 2013
RDTL and Donors: Take economic development seriously
On 19-20 June, Timor-Leste's Ministry of Finance hosted the annual Timor-Leste and Development Partners' Meeting in Dili. The NGO Forum asked La'o Hamutuk to give a presentation on Economic Development, from which this posting is derived. Presentations and documents in Tetum and English are on our web page on TLDPM 2013. PowerPoint of this presentation (also Tetum).
Civil Society presentation to the 2013 TLDPM on the Economic Sector
Developed by La'o Hamutuk, World Vision Timor-Leste, Kolping Nasionál Timor-Leste, Luta Hamutuk, Juventude ba Progresu and Lezival.
Timor-Leste must develop an equitable and sustainable economy.
First of all, we greatly appreciate that the Government and Development Partners have improved cooperation and communication with civil society, including the recent Yellow Road Workshop where the Government invited us to discuss Timor-Leste’s economic and social development.We believe that the Government and Donors have demonstrated their commitment to develop this country, and we hope that this development will reduce the challenges confronting Timor-Leste, such inadequate human resources, reliance on petroleum, extreme import dependency, neglect of non-oil development and weak quality of expenditure. Therefore, we suggest that Government and Development Partners listen to ideas from many people and institutions, to shift their policies in order to achieve sustainable and equitable economic development. This will guarantee that everyone has the same rights to share in the nation’s resources, including access to education, health, clean water and farming. Our economy will be sustainable when it provides for the future, not only for a few years.
Timor-Leste is already “cursed” by our resources, and we believe that development partners have an important responsibility to help our Government exorcise this curse from our nation. We continue to believe that the only way Timor-Leste can do this is through an economic development concept which is equitable and sustainable.
We need to revise the Strategic Development Plan.
We appreciate the goal of the Strategic Development Plan to eliminate poverty and provide good lives for our people. In the two years since Timor-Leste began to implement this plan, we have gained experience and new information. We believe that today is a good opportunity to reflect on this knowledge, and to revise the SDP so that we can achieve its objectives.During these two years, the bulk of state spending has gone for physical infrastructure, especially electricity and the Tasi Mane project. We have neglected to develop human resources, education, health, agriculture, fisheries, clean water, small industry and ecotourism – sectors which would improve nearly every Timorese person’s life.
Therefore, we suggest to move in a direction of prioritizing social services in the future. If we don’t start to shift direction today, we will not have enough resources to develop these sectors when our oil and gas reserves run dry, which could be in only a decade.
We need to escape from petroleum dependency and move toward sustainable development.
The agriculture sector is critical for Timor-Leste’s future, to sustain and provide livelihood for most of our people. Unfortunately, the Government does not prioritize this sector, which receives only 2% of this year’s State Budget.
81% of our $5.8 billion Gross Domestic product (GDP) in 2011 comes from extracting oil and gas. Even worse, about half of the $1.1 billion “non-oil GDP” was from state spending, of which 94% is fueled with oil revenues. [Source: RDTL General Directorate for Statistics 2011 National Accounts. See highlights from this and other recent GDS reports.]
Consequently, we ask our Development Partners to help our Government support farmers to improve their production, increase their skills and provide technology which is sustainable and appropriate to their lives. Therefore, are not asking help in importing seeds, chemical fertilizers or tractors, which are not sustainable and will damage the environment, as well as undermining our social and cultural values.
“Double-digit” economic growth comes with inflation, benefiting only a few people.
Nearly every week, Government speeches, press releases or documents boast of “double-digit” GDP growth. We regret that this growth comes with double-digit inflation, and increases poverty and hunger even while this nation spends dollars by the billions.Inflation hits poor people hardest, reducing their buying capacity and increasing poverty among those in rural areas and those without work. We have inflation because we have not developed a strong, productive domestic economy which can absorb state spending, which increases rapidly every year.
All of us must work together to meet the challenge of finding a more sustainable path. By transforming our economic system and developing the non-oil sector, especially agriculture and fishing, we will be able to provide food for ourselves. Many now talk about an “inclusive economy” –meaning that the poorest people get a few crumbs – but we should strive to achieve economic justice, where everyone gets a fair share.
We must try harder to achieve food sovereignty, to add value to our farming, producing basic needs to substitute for imports. Small industry and agricultural and fish processing for local consumption can reduce our trade deficit, provide jobs, and help become truly economically and politically independent. At the same time, tourism and places for selling local products can increase foreign visitors.
We ask Timor-Leste’s Development Partners to help us produce for our domestic market, adding value for Timor-Leste’s people, rather than struggling to compete with industrialized agriculture in other countries.
Government should continue to reduce state spending.
This year’s budget reduces the money taken from the Petroleum Fund to the Estimated Sustainable Income of $0.8 billion, compared with $1.5 billion taken out in 2012. We hope that the Government’s discipline will continue, enabling fiscal sustainability for current and future generations. However, we also recognize that the reduction in 2013 is possible because last year we withdrew much more than we needed; 41% of the 2013 budget is financed with unspent money taken out of the Petroleum Fund in 2012, and another 48% will be paid for with new withdrawals from the Fund.
Recurrent expenditures in 2013 will be 21% higher than what was spent in 2012, which is a slower escalation than the 37% increase from 2011 to 2012, but is still unsustainable. Some people don’t think our economic situation is dangerous because we have nearly $14 billion in our Petroleum Fund, but that will not last very long.
We seriously doubt that the Tasi Mane project will bring benefits to most of our people, because public spending for this project is far more than the return it can earn. It will provide few jobs for Timorese workers, but large subsidies to foreign contractors. Farmers will lose productive land and imports will grow, creating even more poverty when the oil is gone. We hope that Development Partners will help Government and civil society carry out a realistic analysis of the costs, benefits and feasibility of Tasi Mane before imminent construction contracts obligate Timor-Leste to pay hundreds of millions of dollars.
In addition to the Tasi Mane project, the Government is spending more money on Dili airport, the Oecusse Economic Zone, Tibar Port, two Comoro bridges, and other projects of dubious benefit. The IFC is helping with the port and airport, based on unrealistic assumptions of vastly increased imports and air travel. We worry when development partners’ “assistance” makes our resource curse more acute, allocating large shares of public resources to benefit a minority of our people.
Therefore, we ask the Development Partners to be honest with our Government, helping policy-makers understand that unrealistic mega-projects threaten economic justice and the future of all Timorese people. Help us invest in human resources, effective management, and fiscal policies oriented to sustainable, equitable development. Timor-Leste needs you to prioritize programs which help our poor and vulnerable people, enabling them to provide for themselves and their grandchildren.
The Government continues to close its eyes to human resource development.
Today, many people worry about the quality of Timorese human resources. Kids don’t learn in school; children’s futures are permanently limited for lack of nutritious food; people die unnecessarily because our health care system does not help them. How can we achieve these human rights, which Timor-Leste committed to ten years ago when we ratified the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights?
This problem can be reduced by serious investment in the social service sector. Although the 2013 State Budget is a little better on health, including important medical equipment purchases, it still allocates only 4.2% for health, less than half of global norms.We still don’t allocate enough to education, only 8.4% in 2013, improved over last year’s 7.0%. Most developing countries place more value on their people, spending around 20% of their budgets on education.
At the moment, the Government is asking how Timor-Leste can achieve the Millennium Development Goals in sectors like education and health. To achieve these standards, Government and donors need to get serious, improving the quality of education and health and making them accessible to everyone. This will make people’s lives better, respecting their human rights. It will also enable them to earn and produce more, providing a basis for developing Timor-Leste’s national economy.
The private sector should invest in their own and the nation’s future.
Timor-Leste needs a strong private sector to help build this nation. Our businesses cannot continue to depend on money from the state.At present, Timor-Leste’s private sector largely ignores areas which provide jobs for Timorese people. Around 70% of our 600,000-strong labor force works in the agriculture and informal sectors, while less than 10% work for private companies, including government contractors. The private sector should give higher priority to agriculture, which can reduce poverty and develop our economy.
In addition, local and international contractors need to produce better quality work. Can Government and Donors work with our business sector to build an equitable and sustainable Timor-Leste, with better quality of projects and quality of life, for the long term?
Today, Timor-Leste has many beneficiaries – contractors, veterans, public employees – living off our petroleum nonrenewable petroleum wealth and the generosity of development partners. All of us – civil society, the State, the private sector, development partners, and every citizen – must focus our money, our resources, our time and our efforts on improving the lives of every Timorese person, including our children and grandchildren.
If we don’t work smarter and harder for a better future, who will?
13 June 2013
Understanding Timor-Leste's context
To follow the first Fragile States Principle, “Take Context as the Starting Point,” one must understand the context. Timor-Leste’s General Directorate of Statistics (GDS/DGE, formerly the National Statistics Directorate), under the Ministry of Finance, recently published several important reports which help make this possible. We hope that people inside and outside the Government will use them well, and that they will inform the discussions at next week’s Timor-Leste and Development Partners Meeting, next month’s Timor-Leste Studies Association conference, and future policy planning and implementation.
Because the GDS website has some technical problems, La’o Hamutuk posted these reports on our website (click on each heading to download the report). At present they are mainly in English; we will add Tetum versions as they become available.
Between January 2011 to January 2012, GDS interviewed 4,800 households across Timor-Leste (about 2.6% of the total) about their cash and in-kind income and expenditures, as well as other topics. The results, the first for this country, are an invaluable window into people’s lives and Timor-Leste’s economy. The Government delayed publication of the HIES report for a year, removing the calculation of the Poverty Line (to avoid comparison with 2007, when 49.9% of Timor-Leste’s people lived on less than 88 cents/day), but a great deal of useful data remains. Here are a few tidbits:
This report, the second of its kind, estimates the size of each component of Timor-Leste’s economy using three methods: production, expenditure and income. In addition to calculating the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and watching it grow over time, the NA report shows money coming into and out of the country, as well as the contribution and trends of various sectors. Among its interesting revelations:
GDS interviewed a sample of 1,073 of the 5,273 business registered in Timor-Leste, excluding the petroleum sector but including all large companies operating here, and compared the responses with their 2010 study. Among the interesting results:
Although GDS has sampled prices and published the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for many years, in late 2012 they used the HIES to redesign their methodology, changing the way data is collected, the weights given to different types of products, and publishing separate CPIs for Dili and the rest of Timor-Leste. They recently released reports for the first four months of 2013, the first using the new methodology. These reports and GDS’s explanatory papers are on La’o Hamutuk’s website; future reports will be accessible from the GDS website.
The new reports from the General Directorate for Statistics contain a wealth of data (as does their end-of-2012 Quarterly Statistical Indicators brochure), but there are other sources of useful information. La’o Hamutuk also recently published Mari Alkatiri’s presentation on the proposed Oecusse Special Economic Zone, the Finance Ministry’s Yellow Road Workshop documents describing Timor-Leste’s fiscal situation, and some of the tender and EIA documents for the Suai Airport, Suai Supply Base, and the first phase of the Suai-Beaçu highway. We welcome additional information from all sources.
Because the GDS website has some technical problems, La’o Hamutuk posted these reports on our website (click on each heading to download the report). At present they are mainly in English; we will add Tetum versions as they become available.
2011 Household Income and Expenditure Survey
Between January 2011 to January 2012, GDS interviewed 4,800 households across Timor-Leste (about 2.6% of the total) about their cash and in-kind income and expenditures, as well as other topics. The results, the first for this country, are an invaluable window into people’s lives and Timor-Leste’s economy. The Government delayed publication of the HIES report for a year, removing the calculation of the Poverty Line (to avoid comparison with 2007, when 49.9% of Timor-Leste’s people lived on less than 88 cents/day), but a great deal of useful data remains. Here are a few tidbits:
- The mean (average) monthly income per person is $93 in urban households and $50 in rural ones.
- Less than one-fourth of this is from wages; in rural areas more than half is from agriculture.
- The median per capita monthly income (including in-kind income and imputed rent) is $40 ($24 in Oecusse), meaning that half of Timor-Leste’s people get by on less than $1.33 per day. [With 34% overall inflation from 2007 to 2011, the poverty line is significantly higher than 2007’s 88¢/day.]
- The richest 10% receives nearly 14 times as much income as the poorest 10%.
- Urban people spend more than twice as much as rural people, even when the value of food obtained by labor or barter is included. More than half of rural people spend less than a dollar a day.
- Rural people spend 78% of their household budget on food, of which less than 40% is bartered or produced by themselves.
- 57% of all wage income is paid by the Government.
- Urban households consume four times as much fish and dairy as rural ones, and twice as much meat and vegetables, but rural people eat more rice, tubers and roots.
- Urban households spend seven times as much on beer as rural ones, although rural people spend more on locally-produced alcohol.
- The HIES report also discusses education, age, health, possessions, hunger, crime, smoking, transportation, social benefits, ceremonies and many other issues.
2000-2011 National Accounts
This report, the second of its kind, estimates the size of each component of Timor-Leste’s economy using three methods: production, expenditure and income. In addition to calculating the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and watching it grow over time, the NA report shows money coming into and out of the country, as well as the contribution and trends of various sectors. Among its interesting revelations:
- 80.5% of our GDP in 2011 came from oil and gas extraction. The non-oil GDP was $1.1 billion in current prices, out of a total of $5.8 billion.
- Of the non-oil GDP, 21% was from construction, 20% from public administration, 19% from trade, 17% from agriculture, 8% from real estate and 15% from all other sectors.
- Total non-oil GDP increased 12% from 2010 to 2011. In that time, agriculture shrank by 20% while (mostly state-financed) construction grew by 40% and public administration grew by 25%.
- During 2011, Timor-Leste exported $34 million in goods (excluding oil) and $77m in services, for a total export income of $111 million.
- During 2011, we imported $325 million in goods and $1,033m in services (excluding the oil sector), for a balance of payments deficit of $1.25 billion, 16% higher than in 2010.
2011 Business Activities Survey
GDS interviewed a sample of 1,073 of the 5,273 business registered in Timor-Leste, excluding the petroleum sector but including all large companies operating here, and compared the responses with their 2010 study. Among the interesting results:
- 58,200 people were employed by the private sector at the end of 2011, 75% whom were male, out of a total working age population of more than 600,000.
- Between 2010 and 2011, the number of women employed increased by only 7% while the number of men increased 25%. (This is partly from the large increase in the construction sector, but the gender bias is in most sectors.)
- Although business profits increased by 39% over 2010 (to $355 million), capital expenditure (investing to make the business grow) dropped by 13%. Dili-based businesses re-invested only 9% of their profits in 2011 (down from 20% in 2010), while companies in the districts re-invested 55% (up from 26% in 2010). Although this is partly because foreign companies are primarily registered in Dili, investment was less than 20% of profit in every sector of the economy.
Series 2 Consumer Price Index
Although GDS has sampled prices and published the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for many years, in late 2012 they used the HIES to redesign their methodology, changing the way data is collected, the weights given to different types of products, and publishing separate CPIs for Dili and the rest of Timor-Leste. They recently released reports for the first four months of 2013, the first using the new methodology. These reports and GDS’s explanatory papers are on La’o Hamutuk’s website; future reports will be accessible from the GDS website. 
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