Rezultadu husi Global Hunger Index 2020 kredivel ka lae?

Link to this article in English

Relatóriu Índise Hamlaha Globál (Global Hunger Index – GHI) 2020 hamosu debate no diskusaun iha media no sosiedade sivíl, tanba tuir rezultadu husi relatóriu nee haktuir katak Timor-Leste nia númeru malnutrisaun aas liu kompara ho nasaun sira seluk. Artigu badak ne’e ho objetivu atu esplika konteúdu relatóriu no fó sujestaun balun oinsá Timor-Leste bele rezolve problema malnutrisaun iha Timor-Leste. Relatóriu GHI públika husi NGO internasionál rua: Welte Hunger Hilfe no Concern Worldwide, ne’ebé uza dadus husi UNICEF, WHO, no ajénsia ONU seluk. Ajénsia hirak ne’e mós hetan dadus husi relatóriu ofisiál Governu Timor-Leste nian.

Relatóriu estudu ne’e foka ba aspetu haat: persentajen husi populasaun ne’ebé enfrenta nutrisaun menus (undernourished); persentajen husi labarik ho idade menus husi tinan lima isin ra’es badak (stunted); labarik ho isin krekas (wasted), no taxa mortalidade labarik sira ho idade menus husi tinan 5 (mortality rate). Depois halibur dadus hotu husi kada nasaun, peskizadór sira halo kalkulasaun atu hatene valór komparativu. Valór final kompostu husi nivel mate sedu no nutrisaun menus fó kontribuisaun boot liu kompara ho nivel isin ra’es badak no isin krekas ka isin-ki’ik.

Rezultadu final fó valór ba kada nasaun. Valór ho númeru 0 signifika nasaun ida ne’e la hasoru hamlaha, no valór besik númeru 100 signifika katak populasaun tomak hamlaha. Timor-Leste hetan valor 37.6, nee katak iha nasaun ida de’it (nasaun Chad, iha Áfrika) ne’ebá hetan valór aas liu. Tanba ne’e, Timor-Leste tama iha kategoria “alarming” ka tenke hetan atensaun sériu. Iha nasaun balun, ne’ebé la hetan valór, tanba dadus la iha inklui nasaun balun ne’ebé hasoru hela konflitu no krize boot hanesan Iemen no Síria. Maski nune’e, rezultadu hatudu katak husi nasaun 107 ne’ebé iha dadus, iha nasaun ida de’it mak iha situasaun grave liu duke Timor-Leste.

Informasaun husi relatóriu ida ne’e la’ós buat foun liga ho situasaun iha Timor-Leste. Ita hatene ona katak problema nutrisaun nudár problema nasionál no presiza entidade hotu nia atensaun. Tuir dadus TLDHS (Timor-Leste Demographic and Health Survey) 2016, 13% de’it husi labarik ho idade fulan 6 to’o fulan 23 hetan ai-han ho nutrisaun ne’ebé sufisiente (tuir “minimal acceptable diet”). Problema nutrisaun la’ós de’it ba labarik sira; dadus TLDHS mós hatudu katak 23% husi feto ho idade tinan 15-49 enfrenta mós anemia.

Relatóriu Índise Hamlaha Global 2020 relata dadus balu diferente ho dadus TLDHS nian, maibé refleta nafatin TLDHS nia informasaun kona ba problema malnutrisaun ne’ebé aas iha Timor-Leste. Tabela tuir mai hatudu diferensa entre dadus ne’ebé GHI uza atu kalkula valor Timor-Leste, no dadus husi TLDHS 2016.

Diferensa entre dadus TLDHS no estatístika ne’ebé uza iha GHI la signifika katak rezultadu GHI nian la kredivel. La’o Hamutuk hafoin lee relatóriu GHI, kontaktu ba peskizadór sira iha GHI, hodi konfirma kona ba dadus ne’ebé sira uza. Tuir esplikasaun husi GHI, dadus ne’ebé relatóriu ne’e uza mai husi UNICEF, Banku Mundial, no Organizasaun Saúde Mundial (OMS/WHO) ne’ebé halibur iha database JME (Joint Malnutrition Estimates), no database Banku Mundial nian kona ba nutrisaun labarik nian. GHI analiza dadus ne’e, no refere mós ba estatístika ka dadus seluk ne’ebé fó impaktu mós ba labarik ho nivel isin ra’es badak no labarik ho isin krekas. Sira uza ona modelu analiza ida ne’e durante tinan 5, no haree katak modelu refere bele fó estimasaun ne’ebé loos. Se karik sira uza dadus TLDHS nian de’it, rezultadu sei hatudu katak situasaun Timor-Leste nian sei aat liu fali; katak Timor-Leste bele hetan valór to 41.4 bainhira uza de’it dadus husi TLDHS, kompara ho valór 37.6 ne’ebé mai husi metodolojia GHI nian. Entaun bazeia ba fonte dadus rua ne’e, situasaun ne’ebé Timor-Leste hasoru sériu tebes.

Hare ba realidade, povu barak iha Timor-Leste seidauk asesu ba ai-han ne’ebé ho nutritivu, liu-liu labarik sira, la hetan ai-han sufisiente ho nutrisaun di’ak. Situasaun ne’e kria impaktu todan ba ita nia labarik sira jerasaun futuru nasaun nian. Aleinde la asesu ba ai-han di’ak, iha mós problema ho sira nia saúde, edukasaun, produtividade, kapasidade no família iha futuru. Situasaun no problema hirak ne’e susar atu rezolve no kompleksu tebes. Disponibilidade ai-han nutritivu menus tanba produsaun iha rai laran ladún sai prioridade no depende maka’as ba konsumu foos duke diversidade ai-han, kustu ai-han di’ak ho nutritivu ne’ebé karun. [referensia]

Iha Timor-Leste, so 25% husi populasaun de’it iha asesu ba ai-han ne’ebé seguru. [referensia] Moras hanesan diaréia bele kauza nutrisaun menus. Diaréia hetan impaktu husi falta bee mós no fasilidade saneamentu; bazeia ba DHS 2016, 50% de’it husi uma kain iha Timor-Leste bele asesu ba fasilidade saneamentu ne’ebé di’ak, signifika katak sira uza sentina ho tanke séptiku (pit latrine), no 58% de’it husi uma-kain iha area rurál hetan asesu ba bee moos iha sira nia uma ka besik sira nia hela fatin.

Hodi responde no hadi’ak situasaun ne’e presiza investimentu ba saneamentu no bee mós nudár fatór importante tebes. Promove no konsumu ai-han lokál ne’ebé ho variedade diversifikadu, promove setór peska no akuakultura atu fornese ikan ho folin baratu ba komunidade. Halo tuir rekomendasaun husi Ministériu Saúde kona-ba dieta saudavel ka han ai-han lokál ne’ebé ita kuda rasik iha rai laran (hanesan ai-han hodi fó forsa (enerjia) hanesan fehuk, talas, foos, lakeru nsst, ai-han hodi haburas hanesan ikan, manu tolun, koto no fore sira no ai-han ba protesaun hanesan modo no ai-fuan sira). 

La’o Hamutuk kontinua ezije ema hotu iha Timor-Leste, inklui autoridade kompetente sira, tenke servisu hamutuk hodi luta kontra malnutrisaun. Maske ita bele debate númeru barak iha relatóriu sira, ita hotu tenke koko, ho meta klaru no planu realistíku, atu hadi’ak problema nutrisaun iha rai doben ida ne’e.

How credible is the 2020 Global Hunger Index?

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The 2020 Global Hunger Index (GHI) report has sparked debate and discussion in the media and civil society, partly because the report says that Timor-Leste’s malnutrition is among the highest in the world. This article aims to explain the report’s findings and suggests how Timor-Leste can overcome malnutrition. 

The GHI report was published by two international NGOs, Welte Hunger Hilfe and Concern Worldwide, and draws on data from UNICEF, the WHO and other UN agencies. In turn, those agencies used national-level data from the Government of Timor-Leste.

The report focuses on four dimensions of hunger and malnutrition: the percentage of the total population who are undernourished; the percentage of children under five years old who are stunted; the percentage of children under five years old who are wasted; and the rate of child mortality. After collecting relevant data from each nation, the researchers processed and analyzed the data so that results can be compared among countries. Each nation’s final value consists of rates of child mortality and overall malnutrition (which contribute the majority of the score), and rates of wasting and stunting.

The final results give a score to each country. A score of zero means that a nation has absolutely no malnutrition or hunger, while a score of 100 signifies that a nation has universal hunger. Timor-Leste received a score of 37.6, with only one nation - Chad - receiving a higher (worse) score. The report therefore notes that Timor-Leste faces an ‘alarming’ situation requiring serious action. Although some countries were not scored because of lack of data (including some in the midst of conflict and crises such as Yemen and Syria), the results demonstrate that of the 107 countries with sufficient data, only one faces a situation more grave than Timor-Leste.

The information contained in the report isn’t surprising. We already know that malnutrition here is a national problem that demands everyone’s attention. The Timor-Leste Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) in 2016 showed that only 13% of infants between 6 and 23 months old receive the minimal acceptable diet. The problem of malnutrition is not limited to children; the DHS also showed that 23% of women aged 15-49 suffer anemia. 

The GHI 2020 uses data that differ from the DHS, but broadly reflect the same malnutrition problems. The table at right shows the differences between the data used in the GHI to calculate Timor-Leste’s score, and data from the 2016 DHS.

The differences between DHS data and the data used in the GHI do not mean that the GHI results are not credible. La’o Hamutuk contacted the researchers who prepared the GHI report, to confirm how they obtained the data used. They explained that they use the UNICEF, World Bank and WHO data compiled in the Joint Malnutrition Estimates database, and the World Bank’s database on child nutrition. GHI then analyzed this data, and also referred to other indicators that are known to reflect levels of stunting and wasting. GHI has been using this model for five years and they are confident that it is accurate. If they had used DHS data directly, this would have shown Timor-Leste’s malnutrition problem to be even worse; using DHS data, Timor-Leste would receive a score of 41.4, compared to 37.6 it receives using the GHI data. Whichever data source is used, it is clear that people in Timor-Leste face a very serious situation.

The reality is that many Timorese people, especially children, do not have access to enough nutritious food. This situation has a grave impact on the next generation. Lack of proper nutrition has consequences for their future health, education, productivity and capacity. This situation is complex and not easy to resolve. The availability of nutritious food is exacerbated because agricultural production is not a national priority, by reliance on rice consumption and lack of food diversity, and by the prohibitive cost of nutritious foods [reference].

In Timor-Leste, only 25% of the population lives with food security [reference]. Health conditions such as diarrhea also impact nutrition. Diarrhea is often caused by unavailability of clean water and sanitation; according to the 2016 DHS, only 50% of households have access to improved sanitation facilities (a toilet or a pit latrine), and only 58% of people in rural areas have access to potable water (which can be made safe to drink by boiling) in or close to their homes.

To address this serious situation, Timor-Leste must invest adequately in water and sanitation. We should promoting production and consumption of diverse local foods, including fishing and aquaculture to make fish available and affordable. The Ministry of Health has published recommendations about healthy diets based on foods that can be grown locally, including foods for energy such as yams, taro, rice and pumpkins; proteins such as fish, eggs, and beans; and immune-system-building foods such as healthy greens and fruits.

La’o Hamutuk continues to urge everyone, including the relevant authorities, to work together to combat malnutrition. Although we may debate the numbers in different reports, we all need to work with a clear goal and realistic plan so that more people in our beloved nation are better nourished.

Hatene Impaktu Husi Atividade Umanu ba Mudansa Klimátika

Liga ba artigu naruk liu hanesan PDF.

Saida mak Mudansa Klimátika?

Mudansa Klimátika mosu tanba rezultadu husi atividade umanu nian. Emisaun gàs estufa mak kauza temperatura sai aas, no bele estraga estabilidade ekolojiku ne’ebé too ohin sai hanesan fonte moris ba ema no natureza.

Maioria husi gàs estufa ne’ebé kontribui ba mudansa klimátika kompostu husi karbon dioksida no metana (bele haree mós ba ita nia artigu blog husi tinan 2009). Bainhira montante gàs estufa sai maka’as, gàs hirak ne’e sai hanesan manta iha mundu leten ne’ebé hasa’e temperatura iha okos. Gàs estufa ne’e prevene manas atu sai.

Gàs estufa kompostu husi tipu gàs oi-oin, inklui karbon dioksida no metana. Bainhira ema ka kompañia sunu carvão (batubara), mina-rai ka gàs natural, karbonu (suar) sei sa’e ba kalohan. Kontribuisaun seluk mai husi sistema agrikultura (hakiak animal) iha eskala boot, no sistema transportasaun ne’ebé depende ba petrolíferu ka gàs, hanesan aviaun no karreta, hirak ne’e mós kontribui maka'as ba emisaun gàs estufa.

Ita nia sistema ekolojiku iha kapasidade atu simu gàs estufa ho montante ki’ik. Ai-horis iha rai laran no iha tasi laran bele ‘kaptura’ karbonu, maibé bainhira ema estraga ai laran, ka estraga ai-horis sira iha tasi laran no aumenta produsaun gàs estufa refere, ninia impaktu mak temperatura mundiál sa’e.

Ho nune’e, liu husi hamenus ita nia dependénsia ba petrolíferu no indústria, transportasaun, no sistema agrikultura sira ne’ebé fó emite gàs estufa barak, ita bele hamenus emisaun karbonu no methane no la estraga klima.

Saida mak impaktu husi Mudansa Klimátika? La’ós temperatura de’it!

Nudár rezultadu husi atividade sira ne’ebé hamosu emisaun estufa, temperatura iha mundu tomak aumenta grau 1°C kompara ho tempu anterior produsaun industrial (tinan 1880), no sei nafatin kontinua.

Se karik ita falta atu foti asaun, temperatura bele sai to’o grau 3.2 ka liu iha tinan 2100 kompara ho periodu anterior produsaun industrial; situasaun ida ne’e sei hamosu mudansa piór tebes iha mundu tomak.

Illa ki’ik sira, no nasaun sira ne’ebé depende ba setór agrikultura, ka nasaun iha rejiaun besik liu iha liña equator (khatulistiwa) hanesan Timor-Leste, sai vulneravel liu ba impaktu husi mudansa klimátika.

Maski mudansa temperatura ida ne’e ladún boot, mudansa ki’ik de’it bele fó impaktu maka’as. Mudansa klimátika bele halo mudansa ba udan (la mai tuir tempu), no bele hamosu inundasaun (bee sa’e) aumenta maka'as, no tempu maran (bailoro) bele mós dura ba tempu kleur. Mudansa klimátika bele mós estraga ba ai laran ka inséndiu, hanesan ezemplu ne’ebé akontese ona iha floresta Amazon, floresta Kalimantan, no floresta Australia. Impaktu ida tan mak tasi sai aumenta aas liu; nee sei fó impaktu negativu ba disponibilidade bee mós, no fó ameasa ba komunidade ne’ebé hela besik iha tasi ibun.

Ema balu hanoin katak emisaun kontamina de’it iha udan. Maibé kuaze 25% husi emisaun karbonu mós kontaminadu iha tasi laran. Impaktu husi kontaminasaun ne’e mak rezulta nivel ásidu aumenta maka'as. Ita nia rekursu tasi nian, hanesan ikan, ahu ruin, no animal tasi nian sira susar tebes atu bele moris iha kondisaun ho nivel ásidu aas.

Impaktu boot seluk ne’ebé akontese bainhira laiha ona estabilidade ekolojiku mak fó ameasa boot no rezulta impaktu negativu ba ita nia seguransa ai han, ita nia saúde, no bele mós hamosu dezastre ne’ebé kauza husi mudansa ida ne’e sei halo ita nia jerasaun foun sai vítima ba mudansa klimátika.

Hasoru fenómenu mudansa klimátika presiza asaun polítika forte. Ita boot bele lee La’o Hamutuk nia perspetiva kona ba solusaun ba mudansa klimátika iha versaun artigu kompletu iha ne’e.

Akontesimentu Ekonomia Global fó impaktu boot ba Timor-Leste

Bele download PDF or link to English version.  Atualiza iha loron 14 no 31 Marsu, Maiu no Jullu; hare iha kraik.

Hahú husi 2015, Timor-Leste nia reseita estadu iha dependénsia ba rendimentu husi investimentu osan ne’ebé rai iha Fundu Petrolíferu, la’ós ona osan husi royalties no taxa husi ekstrasaun no esportasaun mina no gás.

Haree ba kondisaun dependénsia ba investimentu ne’e, La’o Hamutuk deside atu buka hatene oinsá mudansa ekonomia no merkadu finanseiru global sei afeta ba kapasidade no estabilidade finanseira husi governu Timor-Leste nia operasaun sira. Maske ita labele influénsia eventu ida ne’e, ita presiza komprende kona-ba eventu sira ne’e.

Artigu ne’e hanesan analiza prelimináriu kona-ba oinsá mudansa sira ne’ebé foin mosu lalais ne’e – husi 12 Fevreiru too 12 Marsu – fó impaktu ba ita nia Fundu Petrolíferu (FP).

Presu ekidade tun

Merkadu ekidade (asoens / stocks) iha Estadus Unidus no nasaun sira seluk tun kuaze 26% durante loron 30 ikus ne’e. Fundu Petrolíferu iha ekidade ho valór kuaze biliaun $6.6 iha fin 2019.  Tanba ne’e, ita lakon kuaze biliaun $1.7 valór merkadu husi ita nia asoens. Maibé, merkadu sempre iha flutuasaun (tun-sa’e), no ita la presiza fa’an ita nia asoens sira agora. Se situasaun iha merkadu sai di’ak fali (hanesan akontese iha 2019), ita sei lakon osan ki’ik liu, maibé se merkadu kontinua tun (hanesan akontese iha 2008), ita sei lakon osan barak liu tan.

Timor-Leste nia Fundu Petrolíferu mak úniku iha mundu ne’ebé la lakon osan durante krize ekonómiku global iha 2008, tanba ita la investe iha asoens. (Nasaun Noruega lakon kuaze biliaun $90.) Iha 2010, bainhira halo revizaun ba lei Fundu Petrolíferu hodi bele uza Fundu ne’e barak liu ba sosa asoens, La’o Hamutuk husu “Oinsá Governu Timor-Leste bele responde ba preokupasaun publiku no politikus nain sira seluk wainhira ita nia fundu nia kapital sei lakon tamba deit labele kontrola merkadu, ka tamba desizaun ida be ladiak husi jestor eksternal ida? Oinsa ita bele asegura katak ita sei la sosa bainhira presu sae no fan bainhira nia presu tun?”

Mezmu ita la fa’an ita nia asoens, balansu iha FP nafatin uza atu kalkula Rendimentu Sustentável Estimativa (RSE) ne’ebé determina osan montante hira mak bele foti ho sustentável husi Fundu Petrolíferu. Redusaun biliaun $1.7 iha balansu FP sei hamenus RSE kuaze tokon $51 – kuaze dala-rua despeza estadu nian ba agrikultura kada tinan.

Taxa funan (taxa de juros) tun

Fundu Petrolíferu barak liu mak investe iha títulu husi governu sira, inklui biliaun $7.9 (iha fin 2019) iha títulu ne’ebé fó sai husi Tezouru Estadu Unidus nian, no biliaun $1.6 iha nasaun seluk. Taxa rendimentu ba médiu-prazu iha títulu Estadu Unidus nian tun too menus husi metade nivel uluk nian. Tinan kotuk, Fundu Petrolíferu hetan tokon $420 iha funan no dividendu,3 no ida ne’e bele tun too tokon $200 se bainhira taxa hirak ne’e kontinua hanesan agora ne’e. Se sira ne’e tun ba nafatin, Timor-Leste sei simu funan no dividendu ki’ik liu tan.

Presu mina tun

Maski esportasaun mina no gás la sai ona hanesan Timor-Leste nia fonte rendimentu prinsipál (no karik sei para total iha tinan tolu nia laran), Fundu ida ne’e nafatin sei simu reseita balu husi esportasaun mina no gás. Tinan kotuk, Ministériu Finansa projeta katak reseita husi mina no gás iha 2020 sei too tokon $595, bazeia ba espetasaun presu mina Brent nian, $62 kada barríl. Maibé, iha 13 Marsu presu mina mak $33 kada barríl. Se presu estabiliza nafatin iha maizumenus $35, reseita petróleu iha 2020 sei la too metade husi Ministériu nia projesaun, no RSE sei tun kuaze tokon $12. Se presu tun liu tan, nia impaktu sei aat liu tan.

Presu mina ne’ebé ki’ik, sei limita dezenvolvimentu petróleu iha mundu tomak, inklui Timor-Leste. Se presu kontinua ki’ik nafatin, projetu sira se fó lukru menus ba kompañia sira, no Bayu-Undan bele para produsaun lalais liu duké 2022, tuir saida mak sira planu ona. (Ida ne’e akontese ona ba Kitan iha 2015).

Kompañia no investór sira sei avalia fila fali valor ekonomia husi kada projetu iha futuru – inklui esplorasaun iha rai maran (onshore), Buffalo, Chuditch, Greater Sunrise no Tasi Mane – iha posibilidade atu atraza ka kansela. Avizu atu oferese fatin ba halo projetu (bidding round) ne’ebé ANPM daudaun ne’e halo hela sei hetan interese menus liu, tanba kompañia sira lakohi atu hahú ka investe iha projetu foun bainhira sira laiha serteza katak sira sei hetan lukru. 

Konkluzaun

Se presu no taxa funan nian ne’ebé diskute iha leten la sai aat liu (ka di’ak liu) durante tinan ida ne’e nia laran, too tinan 2020 nia rohan Timor-Leste nia investimentu Fundu Petrolíferu sei lakon loloos (net loss) kuaze biliaun $1.5. Ida ne’e biliaun rua menus manán tokon $640 ne’ebé Ministériu Finansa estimatiza iha proposta orsamentu 2020 nian. Aleinde ne’e, royalty no taxa husi mina no gás sei ki’ik liu tokon $300 husi saida mak Governu projeta ona ‘ho prudente.’ Lakon hirak ne’e bele kontinua iha tinan hirak tuir mai.

Tinan kotuk, La’o Hamutuk estimatiza katak Fundu Petrolíferu bele mamuk iha 2028, mezmu se ita la uza Fundu ne’e hodi selu ba kustu kapitál projetu Tasi Mane nian. Se tendénsia global ne’e mantén nafatin, FP sei mamuk lalais liu tan tinan balu.

Governu VIII sesante hakarak foti tokon $250 husi Fundu Petrolíferu tanba funsionamentu ba mákina estadu labele kontinua se laiha osan. Hahú iha Janeiru (hanesan iha 2018), despeza estadu ne’ebé la’o neineik hafraku ekonomia iha territóriu Timor-Leste, halo ema kiak sira sai kiak liu tan. Redusaun maka’as atividade ekonomia hatudu katak populasaun sira depende maka’as ba estadu nia despeza husi Fundu Petrolíferu – no hatudu frakeza boot husi ita nia ekonomia.

Ameasa ne’ebé oras ne’e mosu ba Fundu ne’e nia ezisténsia médiu-prazu la’ós buat foun ida, no bele sai aat liu tan tanba mudansa klimátika no redusaun iha balansu Fundu nian. Ameasa hirak ne’e fó hanoin fali mai ita katak Timor-Leste iha urjénsia tebes atu diversifika nia ekonomia ne’ebé la’ós petróleu ka investimentu. Ita liu ona tempu ita tenke investe iha ita nia labarik sira nia saúde no edukasaun, ho nune’e ita nia produtividade, sustentabilidade no ekonomia ne’ebé ekitável – agrikultura, indústria ki’ik no eko-turizmu – bele hakbiit ita nia povu sira atu bele moris ho prospero. Ida ne’e mak dalan úniku atu atinje Fundu Petrolíferu nia objetivu atu benefisia jerasaun sira tuir mai.

Glosáriu:

• Royalty: rendimentu ne’ebé estadu hetan husi produsaun mina no gas iha tasi okos ka rai maran.
• Ekidade: asoens (stocks) ne’ebé investe iha kompañia sira, fa’an iha merkadu internasionál
• Títulu: Hanesan instrumentu ba rendimentu fiksa ne’ebé reprezenta fó empréstimu ruma, espesialmente ba Governu E.U. no nasaun sira seluk
• Dividendu: distribuisaun ne’ebé rekompensa husi lukru balu ne’ebé kompañia na’in hetan no selu balu ba na’in husi asoens. 
• Kustu Kapitál: despeza ne’ebé tenke halo atu harii projetu ida

Atualiza 14 Marsu 2020

Ami hakerek artigu iha leten iha loron 13 Marsu 2020, bazeia ba presu no taxa sira bainhira oras negósiu remata iha loron Kinta, 12 Marsu. Loron ida tuir mai, númeru tolu ne’ebé ita uza atu halo projesaun sira hadi’ak uitoan, no montante ne’ebé Fundu Petrolíferu sei lakon agora mak biliaun $1.8, menus husi lakon biliaun $2.3 ne’ebé ami kalkula horiseik. Númeru sira ne’e sei muda loron-loron, no bele sai di’ak liu ka aat. Ita-boot bele hetan dadus husi:

• S&P 500 índise ba merkadu ekidade (2,711 iha 13 Marsu): https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/spx/charts
• Taxa rendimentu husi títulu iha Tezouru Estadus Unidus (0.74% iha 13 Marsu): https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield
• Presu spot mina Brent ($34.69 iha 13 Marsu): https://www.exchangerates.org.uk/commodities/live-oil-prices/BRT-USD.html

Atualiza 31 Marsu 2020

Trimestre ikus mak monu iha fulan ida ne’e nia rohan, situasaun merkadu asoens iha Estadus Unidus aat liu dezde 2008. Situasaun iha Fundu Petrolíferu hetan aat liu iha 23 Marsu nia laran, maibé hafoin di’ak uitoan iha fulan ne’e nia rohan, to’o hanesan ho nivel ida ne’ebé artigu ida ne’e orijinálmente hakerek. Se bainhira situasaun ne’e nafatin la iha mudansa durante periodu 2020, balansu Fundu iha tinan ikus sei iha kuaze biliaun $1.9 menus liu kompara ho saida mak espekta iha inísiu tinan ida ne’e. (Artigu orijinál uza 12 Fevereiru hanesan referénsia; hahú husi pontu inísiu ne’e lakon ona rendimentu kuaze biliaun $2.1.)

Relatóriu mensal BCTL iha fulan Fevreiru hatudu balansu Fundu ne’ebé tuun ba tokon $344 durante fulan Fevreiru. Maske relatóriu fulan Marsu nian seidauk hasai, La’o Hamutuk estimatiza katak ida ne’e sei tuun ba tokon $500.

Ba Timor-Leste, bainhira folin mina ne’ebé kontinua tuun sei sai preokupasaun boot liu tan, no peritu sira hanoin katak ida ne’e bele tun to’o menus $20/barríl. Reseita husi kampu Bayu-Undan durante 2021-2023 sei menus husi montante tokon $260 hanesan ne’ebé sira antisipa ona. Ba tempu naruk, projetu petróleu ne’ebé iha planu hahú tiha ona – inklui Buffalo, atividade iha rai laran, Chuditch no Greater Sunrise – sei labele hetan lukru sufisiente atu justifika sira nia kapitál investimentu, no sei la kontinua atu dezenvolve; atu hanesan mós ho projetu sira iha mundu tomak ne’ebé kanseladu.

Atualiza 1 Maiu 2020

Durante fulan Abril, merkadu asoens iha Estadus Unidus sa’e maka’as liu kompara ho fulan sira seluk durante tinan 33 nia laran, ne’ebé konsege rekupera fila fali maizumenus 60% husi lakon sira ne’ebé akontese iha médiu Fevereiru too iha semana datolu Marsu. Tanba impaktu ekonomia husi surtu sei kleur atu remata, analista sira preokupa katak rekuperasaun ne’e sei la kontinua.

Mina nia folin no taxa funan iha títulu Estadu Unidus tuun uitoan durante Abril. Se situasaun hanesan iha 30 Abril kontinua nafatin too tinan 2020 nia rohan, balansu Fundu Petrolíferu ne’e nian iha tinan nia rohan sei menus liu maizumenus biliaun $1.25 husi espetasaun iha inísiu tinan ida ne’e.

Balansu Fundu Petrolíferu iha fin Marsu mak biliaun $17.03, tuun tokon $476 durante fulan Marsu, no tokon $663 ki’ik liu kompara ho balansu iha inísiu 2020. Laiha levantamentu osan iha fulan Marsu. Embora balansu ba fulan Abril sa’e (dadus seidauk disponivel), manán hirak ne’e sei limita fali ho levantamentu tokon $250 atu finansia Fundu Espesiál Covid-19 no funsionamentu regular governu nian.

Maske situasaun merkadu asoens rekupera fali husi pontu ida ki’ik liu, ida ne’e nafatin sei tuun-sa’e no bele tuun liu tan, tanba surtu Covid-19 ne’e sei kontinua ba fulan barak tan.

Ba Timor-Leste, mina nia folin ne’ebé kontinua tuun ho la serteza sai preokupasaun boot ba oin, no peritu barak espekta mós katak folin mina kontinua no bele ki’ik liu $20/barrel ba fulan ka tinan balu. Rendimentu ne’ebé sei mai husi Bayu-Undan iha 2021-2023 sei la too tokon $260 ne’ebé projeta ona. Ba tempu naruk, projetu petroleum ne’ebé iha ona planu – inklui Buffalo, rai leten, Chuditch no Greater Sunrise – dalaruma sei la fó lukru nato’on atu justifika investimentu kapitál no bele la realiza; projetu sira hanesan ne’e barak iha mundu tomak mak kansela ona. Fundu Petrolíferu tokon $650 ne’ebé fó empresta ba TimorGap atu bele sosa asoens iha kampu Greater Sunrise nian, ne’ebé nafatin tama iha konta balansu, dalaruma sei la selu fila fali.

Aleinde ne’e, nasaun barak mak prolonga ka adia sira nia avizu atu oferese fatin ba esplorasaun (bidding round), maski ANPM nafatin iha esperansa no atu hetan aplikasaun molok fulan Outubru.

Balansu iha Fundu Petrolíferu sei tuun liu tan iha 2020 – tanba retornu negativu investimentu nian no levantamentu estraordináriu hodi responde ba surtu Covid-19 – no dalaruma sei laiha tan rendimentu petrolíferu hodi aumenta fila fali ba Fundu Petrolíferu. Oinsá Timor-Leste sei finansia nia governu hafoin buat hotu fila fali ba “normal”?

Atualiza 20 Jullu 2020

Durante fulan Maiu-Jullu, merkadu asoens iha Estadus Unidus kontinua atu sa’e, maske ekonomia iha EUA no globál kontinua atu enfrenta problema boot sira. Folin mina rekupera uitoan, maibé nafatin iha nivel metade kompara ho inísiu tinan 2020. Taxa funan iha títulu Estadu Unidus tuun uitoan durante fulan ida ne’e. 

Bainhira fulan Juñu remata, saldu iha Fundu Petrolíferu atinje biliaun $18.07, montante boot liu iha istória Fundu ne’e. Maske nune’e, reseita bainhira tinan 2020 remata sei tokon $500 menus liu kompara ho projesaun husi tinan kotuk. Tuir matadalan OJE 2020, levantamentu durante Jullu-Dezembru sei tokon $680, kompara ho tokon $250 iha Janeiru-Juñu.

ANPM prolonga bidding round ba tinan ida, ate fulan Outubru tinan 2021. No kompañia Australia Woodside, parseiru ida iha konsorsiu Greater Sunrise, dezvaloriza sira nia partisipasaun ba 45%. Ho mudansa iha lideransa iha TimorGap, Ministériu Petróleu no projetu Greater Sunrise, Timor-Leste nia futuru iha setór petróleu iha inserteza barak.

Durante fulan Abril no Maiu, Timor-Leste simu reseita petróleu rata-rata tokon $27/fulan, menus 50% kompara ho tokon $63/fulan ne’ebé Timor-Leste simu ona durante tinan 2019.

Tanba impaktu ekonomia husi surtu sei kleur atu remata, analista sira preokupa katak rekuperasaun ne’e sei la kontinua.

 

Global economic developments hit Timor-Leste hard

Download English PDF of this article ka verzaun Tetum husi iha ne'e

Original article 13 March 2020. See updates through 1 September below, with current graphs.

Since 2015, Timor-Leste’s state revenues have depended on income earned from investing the money saved in the Petroleum Fund, rather than on royalties and taxes from extracting and exporting oil and gas.

In this investment-dependent condition, La’o Hamutuk decided to look into how global economic and financial market changes will affect the financial capacity and stability of Timor-Leste’s government operations. Although we cannot influence these events, we need to understand them.

This article is a preliminary analysis of how recent changes – from 12 February to 12 March 2020 – are impacting our Petroleum Fund (PF).

Falling equity prices

Equity (stock) markets in the U.S. and other countries dropped about 26% during the last 30 days. The PF owned about $6.6 billion in equities at the end of 2019. Therefore, we have lost about $1.7 billion in the market value of our stocks. However, the market is very volatile, and we do not need to sell our stocks right now. If the market bounces back (as it did in 2019), we will lose less money, but if it continues to fall (as it did in 2008), we could lose a lot more.

Timor-Leste’s Petroleum Fund was the only one in the world which didn’t lose money during the 2008 global economic crisis, because we were not invested in stocks. (Norway lost about $90 billion.) In 2010, when the Petroleum Fund Law was being revised to allow more of the Fund to be used to buy stocks, La’o Hamutuk asked "How will Timor-Leste’s Government respond to opposition and public concern when the principal of the Petroleum Fund loses value due to market forces outside their control, or because of a poor decision by an external manager? How can we make sure that we don’t buy when prices are high and sell when they are low?"

Even if we don’t sell the stocks, the balance in the PF is used to calculate the Estimated Sustainable Income (ESI) guideline for how much can be withdrawn sustainably from the Petroleum Fund. A fall of $1.7 billion in the Fund’s balance reduces ESI by $51 million – about twice as much as the State spends on agriculture every year.

Falling interest rates

Most of the Petroleum Fund is invested in government bonds, including $7.9 billion (as of the end of 2019) in those issued by the United States Treasury, and $1.6 billion in other countries.  Yield rates of medium-term U.S. bonds have dropped to less than half of their previous levels. Last year, the Petroleum Fund received $420 million in interest and dividends, and this could drop to $200 million if rates stay where they are.  If they fall further, Timor-Leste will receive even less in interest and dividends.

Falling oil prices

Although oil and gas exports are no longer Timor-Leste’s main source of income (and may end entirely in about three years), the Fund still receives some revenue from them. Last year, the Ministry of Finance projected that oil and gas revenues in 2020 would be $595 million, based on an expected Brent oil price of $62 per barrel. However, on 13 March the price was $33. If prices stabilize at around $35, petroleum revenues in 2020 will be less than half of what the Ministry projected, and the ESI would drop by about $12 million. If they fall further, the impact will be even more severe.

Low oil prices will restrict petroleum development across the globe, including in Timor-Leste. If they stay low, projects will be less profitable for companies, and Bayu-Undan could stop production even earlier than 2022, as is currently planned. (This happened with Kitan in 2015.)

Companies and investors will reassess the economics of every future project – including on-shore exploration, Buffalo, Chuditch, Greater Sunrise and Tasi Mane – possibly leading to delays or cancellations. The bidding round that ANPM is currently conducting may attract less interest, because companies hesitate to embark on or invest in new projects when they are uncertain that they will make money.

Conclusion

If the prices and interest rates discussed above don’t get any worse (or better) during the rest of this year, by the end of 2020 Timor-Leste’s Petroleum Fund’s investments will have a net loss of about $1.5 billion, more than two billion lower than the $640 million gain the Ministry of Finance estimated in the proposed 2020 budget. In addition, oil and gas royalties and taxes will be $300 million less than the Government ‘prudently’ projected. The losses could continue in future years.

Last year, La’o Hamutuk projected that the Petroleum Fund could be empty by 2028, even if it is not used to pay capital costs of the Tasi Mane project. If current global trends persist, this will happen several years sooner.

The outgoing VIII Government intends to withdraw $250 million from the Petroleum Fund because the machinery of the state cannot continue to function without it. Since January (as in 2018), slower state spending has weakened Timor-Leste’s entire economy, making poor people even poorer. This reduced economic activity underscores how much our population depends on the state spending money from the Petroleum Fund – and how weak the rest of our economy is.

The recent threats to the Fund’s medium-term survival are not new, and could become even worse due to climate change and the reduced balance in the Fund. They remind us that Timor-Leste urgently needs to diversify its economy away from petroleum and investments. It is long past time to invest in our children’s health and education so that our productive, sustainable and equitable economy – agriculture, light industry and eco-tourism – can enable our people to survive and thrive. That is the only way to achieve the Petroleum Fund’s promise to benefit future generations.

Update, 14 March 2020

The above article was written on 13 March 2020, based on prices and yield rates at the close of business on Thursday 12 March. The following day, all three indices used in these calculations improved, and the drop in Petroleum Fund revenues became $1.8 billion, less than the $2.3 billion loss we calculated the day before. These numbers will change every day, and could get better or worse. The data is available at:

• S&P 500 Stock Market Index (2,711 on 13 March): https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/spx/charts
• U.S. Treasury Bond Yields (0.74% on 13 March): https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield
• Brent oil price ($34.69 on 13 March): https://www.exchangerates.org.uk/commodities/live-oil-prices/BRT-USD.html

Update, 31 March 2020

The end of the month was the end of the quarter, the worst for the U.S. stock market since 2008. The situation for the Petroleum Fund got much worse around 23 March, but recovered slightly by the end of the month, to about the same level as when the article above was originally written. If things stay unchanged for the rest of 2020, the Fund's balance at the end of the year will be about $1.9 billion less than was expected at the beginning of the year. (The previous article used 12 February as a reference; from that starting point the lost income is about $2.1 billion.)

The monthly BCTL report for February showed a drop in the Fund balance of $344 million during that month. Although the March report is not yet released, La'o Hamutuk estimates that it will show a further drop of $500 million.

For Timor-Leste, the continuing fall of the oil price is a more lasting worry, and many experts expect it to drop well below $20/barrel. Bayu-Undan's remaining revenue in 2021-2023 will be much less than the $260 million that has been projected. For the longer term, other petroleum projects on the drawing board -- including Buffalo, onshore, Chuditch and Greater Sunrise -- may not be profitable enough to justify the capital investment, and may not happen at all, as many other oil projects and contracting rounds around the world are being cancelled.

Update, 1 May 2020

During April, the U.S. stock market had its strongest month in 33 years, recovering about 60% of its losses between mid-February and the third week of March.

Oil prices and interest rates on U.S. bonds fell only slightly during April. If things stay as they were on April 30 for the rest of 2020, the Fund’s balance at the end of the year will be about $1.25 billion less than was expected at the beginning of the year.

The Petroleum Fund Balance at the end of March was $17.03 billion, a drop of $476 million during the month, and $663 million lower than at the beginning of 2020. No money was withdrawn in March. Although the balance went up to $17.60 billion in April, gains were limited by a $250 million withdrawal to finance the Covid-19 Special Fund and regular government operations.

Here’s how the components of the calculations in this blog did during the first four months of 2020. Although the stock market has recovered from its lowest point, it is still very volatile and could fall further, as the Covid-19 pandemic will continue for months.

For Timor-Leste, the continuing erratic drop in the oil price is a more lasting worry, and many experts expect that it could stay at or below $20/barrel for months or years. Bayu-Undan’s remaining revenue in 2021-2023 will be much less than the $260 million that had been projected. For the longer term, petroleum projects on the drawing board -- including Buffalo, onshore, Chuditch and Greater Sunrise -- may not be profitable enough to justify their capital investment and may not happen at all; similar projects around the world are being cancelled. The Petroleum Fund’s $650 million loan so that TimorGAP could buy participation in Greater Sunrise, which is still counted in its balance, may never be repaid.

In addition, many countries are extending or delaying their bidding rounds for new oil and gas exploration, although ANPM still hopes to get bids before October.

The Petroleum Fund balance will fall far in 2020 -- from negative investment returns and from extraordinary withdrawals to cope with the pandemic -- and there may not be any more petroleum revenues to replenish it. How will Timor-Leste finance its government after things return to “normal”?

Update, 2 July 2020

During May and June, the U.S. stock market continued to improve, in spite of major problems in the U.S. and global economies. However, if things stay as they were at mid-year, the end-of-2020 PF balance will still be about $780 million lower than was projected at the end of last year.

Oil prices also recovered a little, although they are still 37% lower than they were at the start of 2020. In April and May, Timor-Leste received an average of $27 million per month in oil revenues, less than half of the $63 million per month received during 2019.

Interest rates on U.S. Treasury Bonds dropped slightly during May and June.

Update, 2 September 2020

The U.S. stock market rose to historic highs, ignoring major problems in the U.S. and global economies. Oil prices and bond yields remained much lower than at the start of the year.

La’o Hamutuk estimates that the PF balance  at the end of 2020 will be about $60 million higher than was projected a year ago. Stock prices added $550m, but low interest rates subtracted about $330 million and oil revenues will be about $160m lower than projected due to continued low prices.

At the end of July, the balance in the Petroleum Fund was $18.4 billion, the highest in history. This is misleading, as only $250 million was withdrawn from the Fund in the first seven months of 2020, and at least $700 million more will be withdrawn in the remaining five months.

Oil and gas revenue in the second quarter of 2020 totaled only $66 million, down from $181m in the first quarter and an average of $189m/quarter during 2019. Even if the ANPM approves the request from new Bayu-Undan operator Santos to drill three new wells to suck the last drops out of the field, revenue will not return to pre-Covid levels (which were far below the $760m/quarter that Timor-Leste got in 2013).

The global economic impacts of the pandemic are far from over, and analysts worry that the stock market rebound may not continue. Oil prices could remain low for many years, casting doubt on future projects.

 

TL Laiha Mudansa iha Transparénsia Orsamentál tuir Klasifikasaun Internasionál

Link to this blog in English

Relatóriu Open Budget Survey ba tinan 2019 foin loke ba públiku, ho rezultadu global iha ne'e. Bele hetan relatóriu kona-ba Timor-Leste rasik iha Ingles no Portugés, no formuláriu kestionáriu ho resposta sira (Ingles).

La'o Hamutuk fó sai komunikadu imprensa tuir mai iha loron 30 Abril (bele hetan hanesan PDF ka iha Ingles).

TIMOR-LESTE LAIHA MUDANSA BA KLASIFIKASAUN INTERNASIONÁL KONA BA GOVERNU NIA TRANSPARÉNSIA IHA ORSAMENTU

Rezultadu hatudu katak presiza iha progresu tan, liu-liu durante Estadu Emerjénsia ba Prevensaun Covid-19

Dili, 30 Abril 2020 — Iha surtu global ida ne’e obriga estadu barak iha mundu atu estabelese medida foun ba sira nia despeza, ajénsia ida hanaran Parseiru Orsamentu Internasionál (International Budget Partnership - IBP), sira nia rezultadu husi Open Budget Survey ikus hatudu katak 4/5 husi nasaun 117 ne'ebé inklui iha peskiza la konsege atinje too iha valór mínimu (benchmark) atu hetan transparénsia no fiskalizasaun orsamentu ida ne’ebé di’ak no adekuadu, atu tuir standar/padraun internasionál nian. Timor-Leste nia valór transparénsia, hetan 40 de’it husi 100, laiha mudansa signifikativu dezde 2015, enkuantu nasaun barak iha Sudeste Ázia sira hadi’ak sira nia transparénsia liu tan.

Iha momentu kritiku ida ne’e, bainhira Timor-Leste seidauk aprova Orsamentu Jerál Estadu 2020 mezmu ida ne’e nesesáriu tebes atu gasta lalais iha estadu emerjénsia hodi nune’e bele enfrenta ba surtu Covid-19, ho nune’e importante tebes atu públiku bele hetan asesu ba informasaun sira relasiona ho despeza estadu nian. Ba futuru, prosesu konsultasaun públiku durante preparasaun orsamentu, no mós fiskalizasaun no relatóriu sira iha ezekusaun orsamentu, presiza tebes atu hadi’ak antes estadu emerjénsia ne’e remata, tanba orsamentu ba 2020 no 2021 tenke hetan aprovasaun lalais.

Bazeia ba relatóriu foun, esforsu sira Timor-Leste nian atu kumpre sasukat xave ba publikasaun dokumentu importante sira ne’ebé esplika ho klaru, detallu kona ba polítika orsamentu, desizaun no rezultadu sira ne’ebé hanesan iha Open Budget Survey 2017 nian, no hatudu situasaun aat uitoan kompara iha 2015. Iha Timor-Leste, haat (4) husi dokumentu orsamentu ualu (8) importante ne’ebé tuir loloos tenke publika maibé realidade ida ne’e la disponivel ba públiku, no ida ne’e hatudu katak piór liu iha valór média kompara ho nasaun hotu-hotu, ne’ebé kuaze 1/3 mak la’ós ba públiku ka la asesível ba públiku.

“Embora Surtu ida ne’e iha ezizénsia maka’as atu iha asaun lalais no rigorozu, transparénsia ba orsamentu, partisipasaun no supervizaun ida ne’ebé funsiona ho di’ak tebes mak presiza liu,” hatete Warren Krafchik, Diretór Ezekutivu IBP ninian. “Medida hirak ne’ebé governu sira foti atu responde ba emerjénsia boot saúde publika, orsamentu hirak ne’e tenke nakloke no transparente, no autoridade sira tenke permite envolvimentu públiku ida ne’ebé inkluzivu durante planu no implementasaun.”

Hanesan iha peskiza husi IBP no organizasaun sira hatudu katak, orsamentu sira ne’ebé nakloke oferese dalan ida ba nasaun sira atu dezenvolve ho di’ak liu iha sosiál no ekonómiku. Sira bele hadi’ak fila fali konfiansa iha governu, no hametin relasaun entre instituisaun públiku sira no ba povu hirak ne’ebé loloos sira tenke serve no tau atensaun ba.

Investigadór prinsipál ba Timor-Leste iha survey ida ne’e, peskizadóra La’o Hamutuk Eliziaria Febe Gomes, nota katak valór nasaun ida ne’e, 40/100, hanesan ho ida ne’ebé hatudu ona iha tinan rua kotuk.

“Ita nia valór nafatin iha nivel aseitável nia okos, piór liu fali 58% husi nasaun sira ne’ebé hetan survey. Iha tempu hanesan, ita nia nasaun viziñu sira iha mudansa – nasaun boot hitu iha ASEAN hadi’ak sira nia valór iha média husi pontu 11 iha tinan rua nia laran. Vietnam, Kamboja, Mianmar ne’ebé kuaze ita liu sira, husi pontu 26 ki’ik liu Timor-Leste iha 2017, agora ho média pontu 7 iha ita nia kotuk. Filipina, Indonézia no Tailándia, ne’ebé sira nia valór média pontu 22 boot liu ita nian iha 2017, agora sira iha 29 pontu di’ak liu ita. Maske Timor-Leste konsidera an hanesan nasaun ida ne’ebé demokrátiku liu iha Sudeste Ázia, ida ne’e hatudu momoos katak desizaun sira presiza nakloke no partisipativu liu, ho nune’e povu hotu hatene katak sira nia osan uza duni no bele asegura katak responde duni ba sira nia nesesidade urjente.”

Maske survey ikus iha Open Budget Survey (OBS) nian kompleta ona molok surtu espalla no uza dokumentu sira ne’ebé publika iha 2018 nian, ida ne’e mak indikadór ba Timor-Leste iha pratika atuál relasiona ho divulgasaun orsamentu, oportunidade ba envolvimentu públiku iha síkulu orsamentu, no efetividade check-balance. Ho razaun mudansa iha governasaun hafoin eleisaun antesipada iha Maiu 2018, Timor-Leste la aprova orsamentu estadu 2018 too iha Setembru 2018, no finalmente iha orsamentu 2019 hetan aprovasaun iha inísiu 2019, hafoin liu tiha loron ikus ba determinasaun OBS nian (31 Dezembru).

Entretantu, padraun atu observa nian durante survey hatudu konsisténsia iha antes no iha pratika atuál, no ohin loron Timor-Leste nafatin iha situasaun hanesan – fulan haat (4) too iha 2020, no nafatin laiha orsamentu estadu 2020, no autoridade sira kontinua esforsu hodi mantén funsionamentu estadu no responde ba Covid-19 ne’ebé nafatin iha situasaun provizóriu sistema duodesimal. Timor-Leste hahú Estadu Emerjénsia iha fulan Marsu nia rohan, lahó orsamentu, tokon $150 ho estraordináriu transfere husi Fundu Petrolíferu ba iha fundu orsamentu foun atu responde ba saúde emerjénsia no ba konsekuénsia ekonomia. Maske, lahó despeza adisionál, balansu iha Fundu Petrolíferu tun maka’as tebes, tanba reseita mina nian tun no investimentu iha merkadu mundiál mós tun.

Sasukat sira iha Open Budget

Transparénsia orsamentál (Budget transparency) avalia iha OBS liu husi disponibilidade ba públiku no konteúdu husi dokumentu importante ualu orsamentu nian ne’ebé governu sira tenke públika tuir padraun internasionál. Espesífikamente, ezamina peskiza sira ne’ebé publika iha online tuir tempu determinadu no fó sai informasaun ida ne’ebé komprensivu no detallu.

• Valór media global transparénsia ninian maka 45 husi 100, menus husi 61 konsidera hanesan valór mínimu atu promove debate iha públiku ida ne’ebé informadu.
• Timor-Leste nia valór 40 husi 100, hetan pozisaun 69 ne’ebé inklui husi nasaun 117.

Partisipasaun husi públiku (Public participation) avalia bazeia ba oportunidade formal ba organizasaun no ema sivíl sira atu partisipa no fó hanoin sira durante prosesu orsamentu. 

• Valór media global ba partisipasaun públiku ida ne’e aat tebes, 14 husi 100.
• Timor-Leste hetan de’it valór 6, piór liu kompara ho nasaun sira iha Sudeste Ázia úniku Mianmar (no hamutuk ho Kamboja).

Fiskalizasaun (Oversight) sukat bazeia ba funsaun husi lejislatura no Instituisaun Supremu Auditoria (SAI) iha prosesu orsamentu. 

• Valór 61 husi 100, ida ne’e konsidera adekuadu iha fiskalizasaun.
• Timor-Leste hetan valór 48.

Febe Gomes observa katak:

“Aleinde audiénsia parlamentár ne’ebé limitadu tebes, públiku la inklui iha prosesu preparasaun orsamentu no prosesu fiskalizasaun. Ministériu sira presiza rona mós husi povu bainhira sira prepara sira nia orsamentu, no informasaun kona ba despeza no reseita sira tenke disponivel hanesan ho saida mak sira halo ka implementa. Maske ita nia Governu orgullu ho Portal Transparénsia, portal finansa públika laiha informasaun kona ba 2020, enkuantu portal ba aprovizionamentu dala-ruma funsiona maibé laiha informasaun kona ba kontratu importante barak, inklui kontratu boot sira iha tinan hirak kotuk.

“Hanesan iha ita nia rezerva mina no gas ne’ebé hahú mamuk no osan iha ita nia Fundu Petrolíferu tun, Timor-Leste tenke ho kuidadu liu uza ita nia Fundu ho prudente, enkuantu diversifika ita nia ekonomia no finansa estadu sai husi dependénsia ba mina no gas ne'ebé laiha serteza. OBS ida ne’e hatudu katak oinsá ita bele hadi’ak informasaun públiku, partisipasaun no akontabilidade – ida ne’ebé sei sai esensiál liu iha futuru.”

IBP primeira vez lansa sira nia survey iha 2006 ho meta katak sidadaun hotu, liu-liu sira ne’ebé husi komunidade ne'ebé estadu haluha, iha oportunidade atu komprende no influensia kona ba oinsá osan povu nian – sira nia osan –  jere duni no gasta. Normálmente, iha baze ba kada tinan rua, dadus sira koleta husi sosiedade sivíl independente nudár peritu ba orsamentu, ne’ebé la pertense iha kualkér instituisaun governu nian. Sira nia rezultadu sei hetan revizaun fila fali husi parte anonimus, no IBP husi reprezentante governu nian atu halo revizaun no komentáriu iha rezultadu ne’e.

La’o Hamutuk, Institutu ba Analiza no Monitor Dezenvolvimentu iha Timor-Leste, nudár organizasaun sosiedade sivíl independente naun-partidáriu ne’ebé tau matan ba prosesu orsamentu iha Timor-Leste hahú antes restorasaun independénsia iha 2002, halo advokasia ba transparénsia, sustentabilidade no igualdade. Durante tempu barak ona, governu Timor-Leste nakonu ho osan husi esportasaun mina no gas, maibé populasaun sira nafatin moris kiak no labarik sira ho kondisaun malnutrisaun ne’ebé sai piór liu iha mundu. Ho reseita husi mina ne’ebé kuaze mohu no lakon osan iha investimentu, organizasaun ida ne’e servisu hamutuk ho sosiedade sivíl sira seluk atu asegura katak riku soin ne’ebé iha no limitadu ida ne’e uza duni atu responde ba povu sira nia nesesidade.