LH Konsidera Proposta Orsamentu Estadu ba 2023 Ignora Realidade Situasaun Finansas Estadu

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Iha loron 18 Outubru 2022, ONG La’o Hamutuk hato'o submisaun ida  ba Deputadu/a sira iha Parlamentu Nasionál (PN) kona-ba proposta Orsamentu Jeral Estadu (OJE) ba tinan 2023. Ho submisaun ida ne’e, ami hakarak atu kontribui ba avaliasaun no diskusaun kona ba OJE 2023 hodi bele realiza orsamentu ne’ebé sustentável no haktuir nesesidade povu nian.

Debate Parlamentár durante periodu orsamentál kada tinan, tenke sai hanesan oportunidade polítika atu Membru PN, Governu no públiku uza ba avalia, diskute no dezeña planeamentu ne’ebé estratéjiku no nesesáriu hodi hatán ba problema sira ne’ebé Povu no Nasaun enfrenta tinan barak.

Pontu importante sira ne’ebé La’o Hamutuk hato’o liu husi submisaun hanesan tuir mai:

Sustentabilidade

Realidade situasaun finansiamentu estadu iha perigu nia laran, no La’o Hamutuk fó ona avizu iha tinan barak nia laran. Iha proposta OJE 2023, Governu aprezenta senáriu ida hodi prolonga vida util hosi Fundu Petrolíferu ate 2045. Signifika sei iha oportunidade boot ba governu atu diversifika ekonomia hodi adia krize ne’ebé bele mosu bainhira hasoru rai naruk fiskál (fiscal cliff) ne’ebe bainhira Fundu Petrolíferu mamuk ona, bele akontese iha tinan 2034 tuir predisaun Ministeriu Finansas nian. Tuir modelu sustentável liu ida ne’ebé governu aprezenta iha Livru Relatóriu Proposta OJE 2023, atu prolonga Fundu Petrolíferu to’o 2045, presiza redús despeza kada tinan 3% to’o 2034.

Maibé iha tabela balun iha livru OJE hatudu despeza inklui levantamentu Fundu Petrolíferu sei sa’e kada tinan to’o 2027. Nune’e ami hanoin katak maske governu rekoñese nasaun ne’e iha perigu ba monu iha rai naruk fiskal, maibé kontinua la fó importánsia no falta atu responde ba realidade ida ne’e. La iha valór atu diskute de’it modelu sustentável se la implementa.

Ami mós observa katak projesaun jerál ne’ebé Governu konsege fornese la iha konsisténsia, no sujere atu fornese ba PN no públiku projesaun loloos kona ba despeza globál no kustu ba kada program ba tinan haat ba oin, atu ajuda kada Deputadu/a foti desizaun matenek.

Dependénsia ba Petróleu

Iha submisaun ba PN, La’o Hamutuk nota katak agora daudaun Timor-Leste depende de’it ona ba investimentu Fundu Petrolíferu iha merkadu finanseiru internasionál, ne’ebé ita kuaze sofre ka lakon ona biliaun $2 resin iha tinan ne’e. Infelizmente, livru OJE falta atu deskreve ho loos risku sira, no senáriu sira kona ba Fundu Petrolíferu kontinua asume retornu 4.1% ba futuru no falta atu konsidera posibilidade ba retornu investimentu negativu ka ki'ik ba futuru.

Maske iha tinan barak nia laran, Fundu Petrolíferu finansia programa no atividade estadu durante ne’e, maibé infelizmente ita la konsege kaer oportunidade atu harii sistema ekonómiku ida ne’ebé produtivu, sustentável no diversifikadu. Governu kontinua mehi katak reseita indústria mina no gas sei ajuda nasaun ne’e nian ekonomia ba tempu naruk hodi ignora dezenvolve setór produtivu no sustentável. Ho nune’e, ami husu Deputadu/a atu rekoñese katak setór petróleu ho hanoin katak setór ida ne’e sei la resolve problema sira ne’ebé ita hasoru hela no sei falta atu lori benefísiu ba povu.

Transparénsia no Akontabilidade

Transparénsia no akontabilidade tenke kontinua sai prioridade iha governasaun no estadu ida ne’e. Infelizmente, ami observa frakeza balun iha implementasaun transparénsia iha prosesu orsamentál ida ne’e.

Por ezemplu, website hosi Parlamentu Nasionál ne’ebé la funsiona, no kona-ba 'audiénsia públiku‘ ne’ebé iha realidade la loke ba públiku. La’o Hamutuk mós sujere atu mantén pratika di’ak balun ne’ebé liu ona hodi prodús livru proposta OJE iha lingua Tetun no Ingles, la’os Portugés de‘it.

Hanesan sosiedade sivíl, triste tebes katak la hetan oportunidade atu fó testemuña iha audiénsia ne’ebé Komisaun C PN realiza. Ami hanoin katak prosesu orsamentál sai forte liu ho partisipasaun husi sosiedade sivíl, no enkoraja atu PN bele hadi'ak liu tan espasu ba ami no públiku hodi fornese analiza no hariku liu tan idea antes debate ho Governu.

Ministériu Finansas presiza klarifika orsamentu FCLN, no tenke konsidera FCLN re-apropria hosi 2022 ba OJE 2023 atu la halo konfuzaun ba públiku.

Prioridade no Estratéjia

La’o Hamutuk kestiona kapasidade Governu atu realiza medida 275 ho kualidade, konsidera nivel ezekusaun iha pasadu no mós realidade katak tinan oin Membru Governu barak no mós sira nia staff sei ba halo kampaña polítika. Di’ak liu fó prioridade ba programa ne’ebé realistíku tuir kbiit no rekursu umanu ne’ebé iha atu garante duni ezekusaun no kualidade.

Alokasaun ba setór sira ne’ebé liga diretamente ba dezenvolvimentu rekursu umanu (edukasaun, saúde, bee mós no agrikultura) hetan de’it 16% husi OJE tomak. Nune’e ami enkoraja Deputadu/a sira atu diskute ho kle’an ho Governu durante debate orsamentu.

Atu realiza orsamentu ne’ebé efikás, PN bele hametin fali prosesu avaliasaun programa atu asegura iha duni benefísiu ba povu, no atu revee fali alokasaun orsamentu balun ne’ebé seidauk iha evidénsia kona ba benefísiu. 

LH Considers that the Proposed 2023 State Budget Ignores the State’s Actual Financial Situation

 Liga ba artigu ida ne'e iha Tetum 

On 18 October 2022, the NGO La’o Hamutuk sent a submission to the Deputies in National Parliament about the proposed General State Budget for 2023. With this submission, La’o Hamutuk wants to contribute to the debate on the 2023 budget so that it will be more sustainable and responsive to people’s needs.

The annual Parliamentary debate about the budget is an opportunity for Members of Parliament, Government and the public to evaluate, discuss and design plans which are strategic and necessary to address the problems which have confronted our nation for years.

Our submission includes the following main points:

Sustainability

The real situation of state finances is already precarious, as La’o Hamutuk has advised for many years. The Ministry of Finance Report on the proposed 2023 budget presents one scenario to extend the life of the Petroleum Fund until 2045. This would give more time for the government to diversify the economy to delay the crisis which will come when we encounter a fiscal cliff because the Petroleum Fund is used up, which the Ministry of Finance projects will happen in 2034. According to the most sustainable model which maintains the Petroleum Fund until 2045, spending needs to be reduced by 3% every year through 2034. But tables in the budget books show spending, including withdrawals from the Petroleum Fund, increasing every year through 2027 (with no information after that). 

Therefore we think that even though Government knows that we are in danger of falling over a fiscal cliff, it continues not to see it as important, and fails to respond to this reality. There’s no value in discussing a sustainable model if it is not implemented.

We also observe that Government projections are inconsistent and suggest that they provide Parliament and the public with more accurate projections of total spending and the cost of each program for the next four years.

Petroleum Dependency

Timor-Leste now depends mainly on the investment of the Petroleum Fund in international financial markets, where it has lost more than $2 billion already this year. Unfortunately, the budget books fail to describe this risk accurately, and their scenarios about the Petroleum Fund continue to assume future returns of 4.1%/year, while failing to consider the possibility of lower or negative returns. 

Although the Petroleum Fund has financed state programs and activities for many years, unfortunately Timor-Leste's leaders did not use that opportunity to build an economy which is productive, sustainable and diversified. Government continues to dream that revenues from the oil and gas industry will support the economy for the long term, while ignoring the development of sustainable and productive sectors. Therefore, La’o Hamutuk asks the Deputies to recognize that petroleum will not resolve the problems which we confront, and is failing to bring benefits to our people.

Transparency and Accountability

Transparency and accountability should continue to be  priorities for this country. Unfortunately, we see weaknesses in implementing transparency in this budget process.

For example, Parliament’s website does not function, and ‘public’ hearings are not open to the public. We also suggest maintaining past good practices, such as producing budget books in Tetum and English, not only in Portuguese.

As civil society, we were very disappointed not to get the opportunity to testify in a hearing of Parliament Committee C. The budget process is stronger with the participation of civil society, and we encourage Parliament to improve space for us and the public to provide analysis which can further enrich ideas before the debate with the Government.

We also suggest that the Ministry of Finance should clarify the budget of the National Liberation Combatants Fund (FCLN), because the repetition of the appropriation to FCLN in both the 2022 and 2023 budgets causes confusion.

Priority and Strategy

La’o Hamutuk doubts that the Government can carry out the budget's 275 measures with quality, considering past execution levels and that many Government members and staff will be engaged in political campaigns next year. It would be better to prioritize programs which are realistic, according to abilities and human resources, and which can really be delivered with execution and quality.

The sectors directly linked to strengthening human resources – education, health, clean water and agriculture – receive only 16% of the allocations in the entire 2023 budget. Therefore, we encourage the Deputies to discuss this in-depth with the Government during the budget debate.

To create an efficient budget, Parliament should tighten evaluation processes for new programs to ensure that they really benefit the people, and should reassess budget allocations which have not yet proven their benefits.

La’o Hamutuk’s submission made seven specific recommendations to Parliament and Government to improve the 2023 budget and the budgeting process.

Click here for information on the 2023 State Budget, including documents, presentations schedules, analyses and graphics.