22 June 2022

Hanoin husi LH ba Parseiru Dezenvolvimentu sira

 Link to this blog in English

Iha 10 Juñu 2022, Governu Timor-Leste organiza reuniaun anuál ho Parseiru Dezenvolvimentu sira iha edifísiu Ministériu Finansa, Dili. Tuir mai mak hanoin badak balu husi La’o Hamutuk ne’ebé fahe ona ba partisipante. Bele liga ba informasaun kle’an liu kona ba soru-mutu refere (inklui video no aprezentasaun sira) no ami nia komentáriu iha lian Tetum no Ingles.  

Komentáriu husi La’o Hamutuk ba Enkontru Parseiru Dezenvolvimentu Timor-Leste 2022

La’o Hamutuk nudár organizasaun Sosiedade Sivíl ne’ebé liu dékada rua, partisipa ativu iha prosesu konstrusaun no dezenvolvimentu Timor-Leste nian, liu husi monitoriza, analiza no halo advokasia bazeia ba evidénsia no polítika públiku Timor-Leste nian. La’o Hamutuk mós asume papél hodi fahe informasaun oin-oin ba povu atu bele iha kbiit hodi enfrenta dezafiu sira nudár Estadu no Nasaun, no atu fahe informasaun no perspetiva sira ba ukun-na’in sira iha Governu no parseiru dezenvolvimentu sira.

Aproveita tempu ida ne’e, hato’o agradesimentu ba kontribuisaun hotu ne’ebé parseiru dezenvolvimentu sira oferese iha momentu difisil hotu povu Timor nian inklui krize saúde no dezastre naturais dala rua tuituir malu iha istória ikus Timor-Leste nian.

Situasaun atuál Timor-Leste nian

Fundu Petrolíferu Sei Mamuk Lalais.

Diskusaun no previzaun sira ne’ebé resposta husi Orsamentu Retifikativu 2022 no Proposta Lei Grande Opsaun do Planu ba OGE 2023, husik hela mensajen prinsipál ba ita hotu katak Fundu Petrolíferu sei hotu lalais liu sein investe ba interese Povu Timor-Leste nian ba tempu naruk.

Agora, produsaun Bayu-Undan besik atu remata, no laiha kampu seluk prontu atu fornese reseita. Durante Janeiru-Abril 2022, valor investimentu iha Fundu Petrolíferu tun 10% ($1.6 biliaun). Maske Ministériu Finansas inklui projesaun grave kona-ba presépio financeiro (fiscal cliff) iha Lei Grande Opsaun do Planu ba OGE 2023 ne’ebé foin pasa husi Parlamentu Nasionál, realidade katak situasaun ida ne’e bele mosu lalais liu kompara ho sira nia estimizasaun. 

Situasaun ida ne’e fó ameasa ba ita nia nasaun no bem-estar povu nian, tanba ita nia kapasidade atu finansia setór báziku hanesan saúde no edukasaun, sei perigozu tebes bainhira Fundu Petrolíferu kuaze mamuk ona. Situasaun ida ne’e bele mós fó ameasa ba ita nia soberania, se Governu deside atu foti empréstimu ne’ebé Timor-Leste sei susar atu selu fali.

Diversifikasaun Ekonómiku Seidauk Realiza.

Ami haree iha tendénsia atu kontinua gasta osan ba Projetu Tasi Mane no projetu boot sira seluk ne’ebé nia retornu nafatin iha duvida, too agora seidauk klaru ba benefísiu husi Projetu Tasi Mane atu dezenvolve ekonomia Timor-Leste nian. 

Tendénsia atu investe iha projetu boot sira ne’ebé falta atu hamosu diversifikasaun ekonómiku ne’ebé sustentável, ida ne’e lori konsekuénsia ba ita nia nasaun atu depende nafatin ba importasaun. Kada tinan, Timor-Leste importa sasán ho valór kuaze tokon $500. Esportasaun naun-petrolíferu maizumenus tokon $20 kada tinan. Produsaun ai-han lokál la sufisiente atu hasoru nesesidade populasaun.

To’o agora, Timor-Leste kobre défise komérsiu ida ne’e ho osan husi reseita petrolíferu no retornu investimentu. Maibé ne’e la’ós solusaun sustentável, tanba hanesan ita hatene ona Fundu Petrolíferu bele mamuk iha tinan sanulu tuir mai. 

Bainhira Fundu mamuk ona, nasaun ne’e sei la bele selu importasaun barak no impaktu ba povu sei todan liu tan se produsaun ai-han lokál seidauk aumenta maka’as. Agora, maioria husi populasaun la iha seguransa ai-han, no labarik ho idade menus husi tinan lima iha Timor-Leste ho kondisaun isin ra’es badak (stunted). Se situasaun ida ne’e sai grave liu, oinsá ho nia impaktu ba povu? Diversifikasaun ekonomia la’ós asuntu abstratu de’it - ne’e fó impaktu maka’as ba povu nia moris.

Mudansa Klimátika halo situasaun ida ne’e grave liu tan.

Mundu tomak preokupa tebes kona-ba mudansa klimátika, ne'ebe mai husi fonte sira inklui produsaun mina no gas ne’ebé hasai gas estufa hodi estraga klima no rezulta krize umanu oin-oin iha mundu inklui Timor-Leste. Timor-Leste la ketak husi planeta mundu nian, ida ne’ebé hetan efeitu no kontribui mós ba mudansa klimátika ne’ebé umanidade mundiál enfrenta.

Impaktu husi mudansa klimátika bele halo problema balun ne’ebé ita enfrenta hela sei sai todan liu tan, inklui inseguransa ai-han, produsaun agrikultura menus, asesu ba bee moos no kualidade infrastrutura. Ita la bele adapta-an nafatin ba situasaun ne’ebé kontinua sai grave liu tan, no presiza esforsu husi nasaun boot sira (inklui doadór) atu hamenus sira nia emisaun gás estufa.

Rekomendasaun ba Parseiru Dezenvolvimentu Sira

  • Aumenta investimentu ba ekonomia produtivu, ne’ebé orienta ba konsumu doméstiku. Ami hanoin katak Timor-Leste bele iha liu tan kbiit atu enfrenta situasaun aat oin-oin iha futuru kuandu ita harii duni ekonomia ida ne’ebé produtivu no sustentável. Ami husu doadór sira atu foka liu ba produsaun agrikultura ne’ebé bele responde ba krize seguransa ai-han no nutrisaun. Liu husi hametin sistema produsaun eskala-ki’ik ne’ebé eziste ona, no valoriza kapasidade, forsa no vontade inklui kondisaun ba atividade ne’ebé eziste ona iha populasaun.

  • Investe atu haforsa no hametin Timor-Leste nia rekursu ho valor boot liu – ita nia povu. Atu la’o ba futuru, Timor-Leste presiza apoiu husi doadór sira atu hadi’ak liu tan ita nia sistema edukasaun no saúde, no atu hamenus kedas malnutrisaun no pobreza. La ho povu ne’ebé forte, liuliu joven no labarik sira, ita nunka bele harii nasaun forte.

  • Ajuda polítiku na’in sira atu kompriende katak indústria estrativa sira – petróleu, mineiru – labele fornese osan no empregu adekuadu ba Timor-Leste, no sei labele sustenta ekonomia no orsamentu estadu iha futuru. Ita tenke hamenus atensaun ba fantasia ida ne’e, no halo esforsu maka’as atu dezenvolve ekonomia sustentável, bazeia ba rekursu umanu no renovavel sira ne'ebé ita iha duni – povu, agrikultura, indústria transformadóra, dezenvolve fatin turistiku komunitáriu inklui poténsia seluk ne’ebé bele adopta tuir karakterístika Timor-Leste nian rasik.

  • Parseiru dezenvolvimentu sira bele rekoñese realidade atuál Timor-Leste nian no kontinua aliña an iha prioridade no nesesidade loloos ne’ebé povu no nasaun ne’e presiza. Ami sujere atu kontinua ho inisiativa di’ak atu fó apoiu ba hirak ne’ebé marzinalizadu hanesan feto sira, hirak ne’ebé moris kbiit laek iha área rurál, ema ho defisiénsia, labarik sira ne’ebé ho kondisaun malnutrisaun, sira ne’ebé seidauk hetan asesu ba edukasaun no asesu ba saúde ho di’ak no adekuadu. Nune’e, povu hotu iha área remota sira ne’ebé falta atensaun ka seidauk hetan asisténsia bele moris ho kondisaun ne’ebé di’ak liu no ekitável liu.

  • Ami husu doadór hotu atu aliña sira nia programa kona-ba adaptasaun ba mudansa klimátika ho sira nia nasaun ida-idak nia polítika rasik. Dalan efetivu liu ba hasoru krize mudansa klimátika mak nasaun industrializadu sira tenke hamenus kedas sira nia emisaun. La bele husu nasaun ki’ik hanesan Timor-Leste atu adapta aan nafatin ba situasaun ne’ebé nasaun industrializadu kontinua atu prolonga.

  • Parseiru Dezenvolvimentu sira bele ajuda Governu atu atualiza dadus importante sira ne’ebé bele ajuda Governu dezenvolve polítika bazeia ba evidénsia, inklui halo analiza ba planu programa sai realistíku liu. Hanesan: Demographics and Health Survey ikus halo iha 2016, Household Income and Expenditure Survey halo iha 2011, Living Standards Survey iha 2014 no Labor Force Survey kompletu iha 2013.

Konkluzaun

Ami apresia tebes ba vontade másima husi parseiru sira ne’ebé hakarak apoia nasaun ida ne’e no nia povu. Nune’e ami sujere atu suporta ami nia desizor sira ba diresaun ida ne’ebé bele ajuda eleva kapasidade umanu liu-liu hirak ne’ebé marzinalizadu no hakbiit ami nia ekonomia rai laran hodi hametin liu tan ba konsumu doméstiku. Aleinde ne’e, bele nafatin fó asisténsia ba ami nia rai ne’ebé vulneravel tebes ba risku mundiál atu reforsa ami nia reziliénsia ne’ebé bele garante ba moris sustentável liu. Obrigada barak.

11 June 2022

LH thoughts for Development Partners

 Blog ida ne'e iha Tetum 

On 10 June 2022, the Government of Timor-Leste held its annual meeting with Development Partners at the Ministry of Finance in Dili. The following is an abridged version of some thoughts that La'o Hamutuk distributed to participants.  Links to more information about the meeting (including videos and presentations) and to our full statement in English or Tetum.

Thoughts from La’o Hamutuk for the 2022 Timor-Leste Development Partners Meeting

La’o Hamutuk, a 20-year-old civil society organization, actively participates in constructing and developing Timor-Leste through monitoring, analysis and evidence-based advocacy related to public policies. La’o Hamutuk also distributes information to help empower our people, and shares perspectives with leaders in Government and development partners.

At this time, we would like to thank development partners for their contributions in this difficult time, including the health crisis and two natural disasters.

Timor-Leste’s current situation

The Petroleum Fund will soon be empty.

The discussion and projections on the 2022 Budget Rectification and the 2023 Major Planning Options law reminded everyone that the Petroleum Fund will be used up quickly, unless we rapidly invest in the long-term interests of the Timorese people.

Right now, Bayu-Undan production is almost finished, and no other fields are ready to provide revenue. Between January and April 2022, the value of the Petroleum Fund’s investments dropped 10% ($1.6 billion).  Although the Ministry of Finance included alarming projections about a fiscal cliff in the Major Planning Options law which Parliament just passed, this calamity could happen even sooner than they estimated.

The fiscal cliff threatens our people’s well-being, because our capacity to pay for basic services, such as health and education, will be constrained when our Petroleum Fund is empty.  Our sovereignty is also at risk if Government takes out loans which it cannot repay.

Timor-Leste’s economy is not yet diversified.

We continue to spend money on the Tasi Mane Project, ports and airports -- projects with dubious returns. We have not seen any evidence that these projects will help develop Timor-Leste's economy.

The pattern of spending on large projects undercuts diversifying a sustainable economy, and causes our nation to continue to depend on imports. Every year, Timor-Leste imports around $500 million worth of goods, but our non-petroleum exports are about $20 million per year. Local food production cannot feed our people.

So far, Timor-Leste covers our trade deficit with money from petroleum revenues and investment returns. But this is not sustainable, as the Petroleum Fund could be empty in ten years.

When the Fund is empty, our nation will not be able to pay for imports, and, unless local food production has greatly increased, our people will suffer even more. Already, most people have no food security,  and most children under five are stunted. If this situation worsens, how will it impact us? Economic diversification is not an abstract issue – it is essential for survival.

Climate change makes this situation even worse.

The entire world is very worried about climate change, which is caused by large industries, including the production of oil and gas, which release greenhouse gases, leading to human crises all over the planet, including in Timor-Leste. We feel the impacts and also contribute to climate change that all humanity is confronting.

Climate change turns some of our problems into catastrophes, including food insecurity, reduced agricultural production, access to clean water, and quality of infrastructure. We cannot adapt indefinitely to a situation which continues to get worse, and every nation (especially large ones, including donors) must reduce its greenhouse gas emissions.

Recommendations for Development Partners

  • Invest more in the productive economy, oriented toward domestic consumption.  Timor-Leste will be able to confront difficult situations more effectively if our economy is productive and sustainable. Please prioritize agricultural production to address food insecurity and malnutrition by strengthening existing systems of small-scale production and building on the capacity, strength and commitment that our people already have.

  • Invest in Timor-Leste’s most valuable resource – our people. Donors can help improve our education and health systems, and to quickly reduce malnutrition and poverty. Without a strong population, especially children and youth, we will never build a strong nation.

  • Help our politicians understand that extractive industries – petroleum and mining – cannot provide enough money and jobs for Timor-Leste, and will be unable to sustain our economy and state budget. We must reduce our obsession with this fantasy, and develop an economy based on the human and renewable resources we actually have – people, agriculture, processing industries, community tourism, and other potential areas based in Timor-Leste’s own characteristics.

  • Development partners should continue good initiatives to support marginalized people, including women, the rural poor, disabled people, malnourished children, and those who cannot yet access adequate education and health care. People in remote areas are often neglected, or cannot access essential services – we need to improve equity.

  • We ask all donors to align their programs on climate change with their own policies. The most effective path to confront climate change is for industrialized countries to rapidly reduce their emissions. Don’t ask countries like Timor-Leste to keep adapting so that industrialized countries can continue to destroy the global climate.

  • Development partners can help our Government update key information for creating evidence-based policies. For example, the most recent Demographics and Health Survey was in 2016, the Household Income and Expenditure Survey in 2011, the Living Standards Survey in 2014, and a complete Labor Force Survey in 2013.

Conclusion

 
We greatly appreciate development partners' readiness to support our people. Therefore, we ask you to help our decision-makers move toward raising our human capacity to reinforce Timor-Leste’s economy to produce for domestic consumption. Please continue to help our vulnerable country, to reinforce our resilience. Thank you.