Proposta Orsamentu 2016 prioritiza liu fantasia duke povu nia nesesidade

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Iha 29 Outubru, Governu Timor-Leste haruka proposta orsamentu ba Parlamentu ne'ebé sei gasta Billaun $1.56 durante 2016. Montante ne'e esensialmente hanesan de’it ho orsamentu 2015 nian. Gastu ba zona ekonomia espesiál ZEESM iha Oecusse sa’e 63% ba tokon $218, no alokasaun ba estrada, portu, aeroportu no Projetu Tasi Mane sa’e besik dala rua.

Aumentu 27% iha gastu ba infrastrutura fíziku sei selu ho osan ne'ebé ko’a husi alokasaun ba servisu públiku sira, inklui saúde (14%), edukasaun (7%, maski labarik ho idade eskola barak liu tan), sistema judisiál (36%), benefísiu ba veteranu sira (22%), forsa seguransa (19%) no setór sel-seluk. Agrikultura ne'ebé hetan orsamentu menus husi 2% gastu estadu nian maski nia setór ne'ebé for moris ba família Timor-oan barak liu, nia orsamentu sei ko’a 20%.

Maski Governu dehan katak prioridade sira muda ona iha tinan hirak ikus ne'e, infrastrutura kontinua domina nafatin. Gastu aas iha 2011-2013 ba sentru no rede eletrisidade troka fali ona ho osan ba ZEESM no Tasi Mane, ne'ebé nia benefísiu ba ema barak la klaru liu tan. Tuir dokumentu orsamentu nian, gastu públiku ba ZEESM husi 2015 too 2020 sei liu billaun $1.1, no Tasi Mane (inklui Suai Supply Base, Aeroportu Suai no parte balu husi autoestrada Suai-Beaçu, maibé la sura ho konstrusaun refinaria Betano, Planta LNG Beaçu ka kadoras (pipeline) mai Timor-Leste) sei absorve osan liu billaun $1.4, maski montante ba ZEESM no Tasi Mane iha posibilidade boot sei sa’e tan.

Sexta kotuk, Banku Sentrál Timor-Leste fó sai relatóriu trimestral kona ba Fundu Petróleu, ne'ebé finansia liu 80% orsamentu estadu nian. Entre Juñu no Setembru 2015, Fundu ne'e nia investimentu lakon valor tokon $450, no Governu foti tokon $194. Balansu iha fundu ne'e tu’un to’o pontu ne'ebé ki’ik liu iha fulan sanulu resin neen nia laran.

Total rendimentu mina no petróleu ba Fundu ne'e tokon $218 iha terseira trimestre – menus metade husi média durante 2014 no menus liu 63% média 2013 nian. Maski ida ne'e iha parte balu tanba folin mina iha mundu tu’un, ida ne'e mós tanba tres-quartos husi Timor-Leste nia kampu produsaun mina no gas nian uza hotu ona. Durante fulan ualu uluk 2015 nian sira prodús barríl menus 27% kompara ho produsaun iha fulan hanesan iha tinan 2012, tinan ne'ebé produsaun to’o nia pontu aas liu. Kampu mina Kitan hapara produsaun tiha ona, no Bayu-Undan nia esplorasaun sei hapara iha tinan 2021. Maski iha posibilidade katak Greater Sunrise no kampu ne'ebé karik sei deskobre tan bele fó osan barak liu iha futuru, nia probabilidade ki’ik no la matenek sei aprova polítika gastu nian bazeia ba mehi de’it.

Infelizmente, Timor-Leste nia rendimentu (“doméstiku”) la’ós-mina ki’ik nafatin no la sa’e maka’as natoon atu taka kuak ne'ebé husik hela husi rendimentu mina nian ne'ebé lakon daudauk hela. Ba 2016, Governu projeta rendimentu doméstiku (impostu no taxa uzuariu) sa’e 0.6% de’it. Maski inflasaun no kresimentu populasaun nian tu’un ona (estima katak 1.8% in 2016), rendimentu per kapita ne'ebé nia inflasaun korije ona sei tu’un liu 3% iha 2016.

Maski Fundu Petróleu karik pasa ona nia pontu aas liu, proposta Orsamentu Estadu 2016 kontinua foti osan aas liu maka’as husi Rendimentu Sustentável Estimatiza (RSE). Orsamentu 2015 sei foti tokon $689 liu RSE “3%” maibé proposta ba 2016 atu gasta tokon $739 liu RSE.  Ne'e liu 7% husi nasaun ne'e nia rikusoin petróleu, persentu boot liu tinan hotu liu ba. Proposta ne'e espekta atu foti osan ne'ebé boot liu tan iha futuru, 8% iha 2017, 11% iha 2018 no 11% iha 2019.

Proposta orsamentu ne'e espekta Timor-Leste atu empresta tokon $821 durante tinan tolu oin mai no barak liu hafoin tinan tolu ne'e. Deve barak liu uza ba aeroportu Dili, Suai Supply Base no parte balu husi autoestrada Suai-Beaçu. Ba primeira vez, orsamentu ne'e inklui tokon $0.25 hodi selu deve, maibé subestima deve sira ne'e nia kustu iha tinan hirak oin mai no la diskute osan atu selu deve sira ne'e sei mai husi ne'ebé bainhira mina no gas laiha ona.

Maski total gastu ne'ebé planu ba 2016 atu barak hanesan de’it ho 2015 nian, gastu ba “Bens e Serviços” tun, dala ruma tanba Dollar US ne'ebé forte no servisu públiku ne'ebé efisiente liu ona. Osan ne'ebé poupa husi ne’ebá muda tiha ba Transferénsia Públika (Pagamentu ba ema indivíduu no instituisaun sira) no Capital Dezenvolvimentu (infrastrutura fíziku).

Transferénsia Públika la esplika detallu iha orsamentu ka iha governu nia mekanizmu transparénsia sira seluk, entaun ita la hatene saida mak sira selu ka hira mak lori husi tinan ida ba tinan seluk. Maibé, klaru ona katak ZEESM ho veteranus sira hetan porsaun ne'ebé boot liu, ho montante ki’ik ba pensaun sira seluk, bein estar públiku no subsídiu ba instituisaun estadu sira hanesan TimorGAP.

Ami preokupa katak orsamentu ba programa sira ne'ebé fó benefísiu ba ema barak liu – hanesan asistensia saúde, edukasaun, agrikultura, estrada rural no bee – hetan ko’a, maibé projetu sira ne'ebé en prinsípiu ema sira ne'ebé riku no iha podér de’it mak sei uza liu – aeroportu, autoestrada, prosesamentu mina – hetan alokasaun osan barak liu.  Bainhira Parlamentu hahú halo analiza, diskute, muda no aprova orsamentu estadu ne'e durante semana neen tuir mai, ami husu ba Distintu Deputadu sira atu konsidera ekidade, sustentabilidade, transparénsia no demokrasia.

Fatór barak – presu mina iha mundu, taxa de câmbio (foreign exchange rate), merkadu asoens internasionál, no realidade katak rezerva mina no gas labele hafoun fali – imposivel ba Timor-Leste atu kontrola. Buat ne'ebé ita iha mak kbiit no responsabilidade atu jere ita nia rekursu ne'ebé limitadu ho matenek, no labele soe rikusoin ne’e saugate de’it liu husi gastu sira ne'ebé la nesesáriu ka gasta sira ba projetu sira ne'ebé ninia benefísiu ekonomia no sosiál duvidozu hela.

Timor oan ida-idak iha direitu ba Timor-Leste nia rikusoin petróleu dezde kedas bainhira sira moris mai, la’ós lider, assessor no kontratór balu de’it mak iha direitu ba rikeza ne'e. Ami espera katak rikusoin petróleu ne'e sei aloka ho justu no ekitavel, tuir mandatu husi Konstituisaun, ho respeitu ba direitu sira jerasaun ohin no jerasaun futuru nian.

2016 budget proposal puts fantasies before people's needs

Liga ba artigu ida ne'e iha Tetum

On 29 October, Timor-Leste's Government sent Parliament a budget proposal which would spend $1.56 billion during 2016, essentially the same amount as in 2015. Spending for the ZEESM special economic zone in Oecusse grew 63% to $218 million, while appropriations nearly doubled for roads, ports, airports and the Tasi Mane project.

The 27% increase on spending for physical infrastructure is financed by cuts across the public service, including health (14%), education (7%, notwithstanding many more school-age children), the judicial system (36%), veterans' benefits (22%), security forces (19%) and other sectors. Agriculture, which receives less than 2% of state spending but is the livelihood for most Timorese families, will be cut by 20%.

Although Government's stated priorities have changed in the last few years, infrastructure remains dominant. High expenditures in 2011-2013 for the power plants and electricity grid have been replaced by money for ZEESM and Tasi Mane, whose benefits for most people are less clear.  According to the budget documents, public spending on ZEESM from 2015 through 2020 will exceed $1.1 billion, while Tasi Mane (including Suai Supply Base, Suai airport and part of the Suai-Beacu Highway, but not construction of the Betano refinery, Beacu LNG plant or Sunrise pipeline) will absorb more than $1.4 billion, although both amounts are likely to increase.

Last Friday, Timor-Leste's Central Bank issued its latest quarterly report on the Petroleum Fund, which finances more than 80% of the state budget. Between June and September 2015, the Fund's investments lost $450 million in value, and the Government withdrew $194 million to finance its activities during the same period. The balance in the Fund is lower than it has been in sixteen months.

Oil and gas revenues to the Fund totalled $218 million in the third quarter, -- less than half the average during 2014 and 63% lower than in 2013. Although this is partly because world oil prices are low, it is also because Timor-Leste's producing oil and gas fields are more than three-quarters used up. They produced 27% fewer barrels during the first eight months of 2015 than during the same period in 2012, the peak year of production. The Kitan field is already shutting down, and extraction from Bayu-Undan will cease in 2021.  Although it is possible that Greater Sunrise or yet-to-be discovered fields could provide more money in the future, the likelihood is low and it would be foolhardy to enact spending policies based on wishes.

Unfortunately, Timor-Leste's non-oil ("domestic") revenues remain small and are not growing fast enough to fill the gap left by vanishing oil revenues. For 2016, the Government projects domestic revenues (taxes and user fees) to increase by only 0.6%. Although inflation and population growth have slowed down (each is estimated at 1.8% in 2016), inflation-corrected per capita domestic revenues will drop more than 3% in 2016.

Although the Petroleum Fund may have passed its peak, the proposed 2016 State Budget continues to withdraw far more than the Estimated Sustainable Income (ESI). The 2015 budget will take $689 million more than the "3%" ESI, but the proposal for 2016 is to spend $739 more than ESI. That would be more than 7% of the nation's petroleum wealth, the highest percentage ever. The proposal expects even higher future withdrawals -- 8% in 2017, 11% in 2018 and in 2019.

The budget proposal also expects Timor-Leste to borrow $821 million during the next three years and more after that.  The largest loans are for Dili airport, the Suai Supply Base, and part of the Suai-Beacu Highway.  For the first time, the budget includes $0.25 million to repay loans, but understates how much debt will cost in future years and does not discuss where the repayments will come from after the oil and gas are gone.

Although total expenditure planned for 2016 will be as much as in 2015, spending for "goods and services" has dropped, perhaps due to the strong US dollar and improved public service efficiency. These savings have been shifted to Public Transfers (payments to individuals and institutions) and Development Capital (physical infrastructure).

Public Transfers are not broken down in the budget or in any of the Government's transparency mechanisms, so we do not know what they pay for or how much is carried over from one year to the next. However, it is clear that ZEESM and payments to veterans get the largest share, with smaller amounts for other pensions, public welfare, and subsidies for state institutions like TimorGAP.

We are concerned that programs which benefit most people -- such as health care, education, agriculture, rural roads and water --  are being cut, while projects which will be mainly used by the affluent and powerful -- airports, highways, oil processing -- get a larger share. As Parliament proceeds to analyze, discuss, amend and enact the state budget over the next six weeks, we urge the Distinguished Deputies to consider equity, sustainability, transparency and democracy.

Many factors -- world oil prices, foreign exchange rates, international stock markets and the non-renewable nature of oil and gas reserves -- are impossible for Timor-Leste to control. But we do have the power and the responsibility to manage our limited resources wisely, and not to squander them on wasteful spending or throw them away on projects with dubious economic or social benefits.

Timor-Leste's finite petroleum wealth is the birthright of every citizen, not only a few leaders, advisers and contractors. We hope that it will be allocated fairly and equitably, as the Constitution requires, respecting the rights of current and future generations.