Sosa Partisipasaun 100% iha Greater Sunrise:

Entre Soberania Formál, Risku Fiskál no Futuru Dezenvolvimentu Nasionál

 Link to this article in English 

Artigu ida ne’e, hakerek atu elabora pontu kritika kona-ba asuntu ne’ebé bolu atensaun públiku kona-ba desizaun TimorGAP no Governu Timor-Leste ba sosa tan partisipasaun kompañia Woodside hafoin semana hirak ba kotuk deside sosa partisipasaun Osaka Gas nian partisipasaun iha projetu Greater Sunrise. Akizisaun ne'e hamosu debate públiku kona-ba soberania, transparénsia, responsabilidade finansiál no benefísiu ba povu.

La’o Hamutuk rekoñese katak akordu ne’ebé TimorGAP, E.P. asina atu sosa partisipasaun Osaka Gas Australia no Woodside Energy iha Greater Sunrise mudansa iha estrutura partisipasaun. Maibé, konsidera katak presiza iha avaliasaun krítika no transparente, liu-liu kona-ba kustu, responsabilidade finansiál, kapasidade operasionál no benefísiu reál ba povu Timor-Leste no jerasaun futuru.

Akizisaun muda estrutura partisipasaun

Greater Sunrise deskobre iha tinan 1974, maibé to’o agora seidauk hahú produsaun, tanba okupasaun ilegál Indonézia, disputa kona-ba fronteira marítima, desakordu kona-ba fatin atu prosesu gás, no difikuldade atu hetan akordu kona-ba modelu dezenvolvimentu ne’ebé viável. Aleinde ida ne’e, seidauk iha investidór potensiál ida mak hatudu nian interese atu envolve iha projetu ne’e.

Timor-Leste iha ona esperiénsia anteriór kona-ba akizisaun partisipasaun iha Greater Sunrise. Iha 2019, Governu kompleta akizisaun 30% husi ConocoPhillips no 26,56% husi Shell Australia, hamutuk 56,56% partisipasaun ba TimorGAP. Akizisaun 56,56% ho montante tokon $650, TimorGAP seidauk hahú atu selu fali empréstimu husi Fundu Petrolíferu.

Iha 2 Setembru 2026, TimorGAP fó sai akordu ida atu sosa tan 10% partisipasaun husi Osaka Gas Australia. Depois, iha 27 Outubru 2026, TimorGAP asina akordu sosa no fa’an ho Woodside Energy atu sosa nian partisipasaun 33,44% iha Greater Sunrise. Akordu ho Woodside determina folin másimu tokon $200, ne’ebé sei selu tuir etapa no kondisaun kontratuál sei seluk parte boot hafoin Greater Sunrise hahú produsaun. Montante Osaka Gas sei hetan nafatin segredu.

Hafoin hetan aprovasaun nesesária ba akordu ho Osaka Gas no Woodside, TimorGAP sei sai na’in ba 100% husi partisipasaun iha Greater Sunrise. Akordu hirak ne’e la’ós de’it muda persentajen partisipasaun, maibé mós hamosu pergunta importante kona-ba razaun komersiál ne’ebé lori ConocoPhillips, Shell, Osaka Gas no Woodside atu fa’an sira nian partisipasaun, no kona-ba kapasidade TimorGAP no Timor-Leste atu asume responsabilidade sira ne’ebé antes fahe ho parseiru internasionál.

La’o Hamutuk fiar katak kompañia sira nian desizaun ba fa’an partisipasaun indika sira la fiar katak Greater Sunrise viavel komersiálmente no la fó lukru tuir sira nian hakarak, karik sira lakohi hein tan projetu ne’ebé la’o tiha ona tinan 52. Maibé, sira nian desizaun atu fa’an partisipasaun tenke analiza ho, klareza, objetividade, no Governu presiza esplika oinsá sei asegura kapasidade téknika, operasionál no finansiál ba dezenvolvimentu projetu, inklui kustu kapitál ka investimentu tomak hira mak sei uza husi Fundu Petrolíferu, risku potensiál, oinsá atu jere risku hirak ne’e, no se iha investidór estranjeiru prontu atu avansa dolar biliaun. Karik laiha, osan sei mai husi ne’ebé? TimorGAP no promotór sira labele trata asuntu ne’e ho de’it sentimentu patriótiku temporáriu no segredu iha kontratu estadu nian.

Partisipasaun 100% la garante benefísiu públiku

La’o Hamutuk konsidera katak aumentu partisipasaun TimorGAP nian iha Greater Sunrise bele hametin nian influénsia iha negosiasaun no desizaun komersiál, maibé la garante viabilidade projetu, kapasidade operasionál ka benefísiu ekonómiku ba Estadu no povu Timor-Leste. Partisipasaun boot liu mós aumenta nesesidade kapitál no responsabilidade finansiál, tuir La’o Hamutuk nian estimasaun kustu kapitál ba Greater Sunrise iha upstream liu biliaun $16, seidauk inklui kustu atu selu ba Osaka Gas no Woodside nian partisipasaun, liu-liu bainhira parseiru komersiál sira ne’ebé antes ne’ebé bele fahe investimentu no risku hili atu fa’an sira nian interese. TimorGAP nian obrigasaun aumenta biliaun $7.

Presiza distingue entre partisipasaun komersiál no autoridade soberania atu foti desizaun. Parte husi Greater Sunrise sei iha teritoriu Australia no kampu iha Rejime Espesiál ne’ebé estabelese iha Tratadu Fronteira Marítima entre Timor-Leste no Austrália. Desizaun importante sira, inklui kona-ba planu dezenvolvimentu, sujeitu ba mekanizmu governansa no konsensu tuir Tratadu. Tanba ne’e, maski TimorGAP kompleta akizisaun 100% husi interese partisipasaun komersiál, ida ne’e la signifika katak Timor-Leste bele foti desizaun mesak hotu kona-ba dezenvolvimentu no jestaun projetu.

Ba La’o Hamutuk, soberania ekonómika labele sukat de’it husi persentajen partisipasaun iha projetu, maibé tenke sukat husi kapasidade téknika no finansiál, podér negosiasaun, transparénsia, jestaun risku no abilidade atu transforma rekursu petróleu ba benefísiu públiku ne’ebé sustentável. Tanba ne’e, pergunta fundamentál la’ós de’it se Timor-Leste sei kontrola partisipasaun 100% maibé aumenta interese komersiál no bele aumenta nesesidade kapitál; obrigasaun efetiva depende ba kontratu no mekanizmu finansiamentu.

Risku Finansiál no Patrimóniu Jerasaun Futuru

Esperiénsia akizisaun iha 2019 hatudu katak partisipasaun iha Greater Sunrise iha konsekuénsia finansiál ne’ebé boot. Uza Fundu Petrolíferu hodi sosa instrumentu dívida privada husi TimorGAP, ho montante prinsipál tokon $650, taxa jurus anuál 4,5%, prazu reembolsu tinan 18 no períodu karénsia ba pagamentu prinsipál durante tinan ualu, períodu ne’e hotu iha 2027 maibé sei prolonga.

 Interese partisipasaun iha demonstrasaun finansiál TimorGAP avalia ho valór kontabilístiku zero, tanba inserteza kona-ba rejime fiskál no regulatória projetu nian. Nune’e presiza konsidera kle’an ba risku avaliasaun investimentu bainhira konseitu dezenvolvimentu, kondisaun komersiál no estrutura fiskál seidauk klaru.

La’o Hamutuk preokupa katak akizisaun foun bele aumenta nesesidade kapitál no responsabilidade finansiál TimorGAP no Timor-Lete nian, enkuantu estrutura finansiamentu seidauk klaru ba públiku. Tanba ne’e, Governu tenke esplika se finansiamentu sei mai husi ne’ebé, empréstimu, orsamentu Estadu, Fundu Petrolíferu ka fonte seluk, no se mak sei asume obrigasaun bainhira kustu dezenvolvimentu aumenta ka projetu atrazu.

Kona-ba posibilidade partisipasaun ka investimentu husi empreza Xina iha projetu ne’e, ida ne’e bele loke oportunidade atu hetan kapitál, teknolojia no asesu ba merkadu, maibé mós bele hamosu risku finanseiru, kontratuál no jeopolítiku, liu-liu iha relasaun ho Austrália. Maski iha ona diskusaun kona-ba interese empreza Xina sira atu envolve iha projetu ne’e, to’o agora seidauk iha akordu ne’ebé konfirma sira-nia partisipasaun.

Fundu Petrolíferu nudár patrimóniu nasionál ne’ebé mai husi rekursu naturál naun renovavel, tanba ne’e tenke jere ho responsabilidade atu garante benefísiu ba jerasaun agora no jerasaun futuru, la’ós trata hanesan fonte finansiamentu ilimitadu ba projetu empresariál ne’ebé nian retornu seidauk klaru.

Dependénsia estrativa no nesesidade ba dezenvolvimentu alternativa

La’o Hamutuk nian preokupasaun fundamentál la’ós de’it kona-ba presu akizisaun ka montante empréstimu maibé preokupa katak Timor-Leste kontinua tau esperansa boot iha estrasaun no indústria mina no gás, enkuantu setór produtivu simu investimentu no prioridade ne’ebé adekuadu.

Situasaun ida ne’e lori risku ne’ebé iha literatura dezenvolvimentu koñesidu hanesan malisan rekursu (resource curse): bainhira estadu iha dependénsia ba rendimentu husi rekursu estrativa naun renovavel, ida ne’e konsentra desizaun polítika, kapitál no investimentu públiku iha setór estrativu, enkuantu produtividade, sustentabilidade, indústria lokál, empregu no ignora diversifikasaun ekonomia.

Ita presiza Timor-Leste nian esperiensia ne’ebé hatudu katak dependénsia naruk ba Fundu Petrolíferu no investimentu iha projetu kapitál-intensivu limita oportunidade atu harii baze produtiva ne’ebé forte, sustentavel no diversifikadu ekonomia produtiva.

Prioridade estratéjika la bele substitui avaliasaun kustu-benefísiu no análize ba risku. Kada projetu estrativu presiza prova katak nian viavel téknikamente, komersiálmente no finansiálmente, no benefísiu ne’ebé espera justifika kustu, obrigasaun no risku ne’ebé Estadu no povu tenke asume. Projetu petrolíferu mak kauza prinsipál ba mudansa klimátika no hamosu impaktu sosiál no ambiente oin-oin. Efeitu husi krize klimátika ezije mudansa estruturál iha ekonomia global Inklui diskusaun kona-ba prosesu atu husik gradualmente uza kombustível fosil. Se Greater Sunrise eventualmente prodús LNG, opera to’o tinan 2055. Iha tempu ne’ebá, kombustível fósil bele hetan ona bandu tuir lei.

Timor-Leste presiza mudansa iha modelu dezenvolvimentu, husi dependénsia estrativa ba ekonomia produtiva, renovavel, diversifikadu no ekonomia sustentável. Ida ne’e presiza prioridade ba agrikultura no soberania alimentár, peska, transformasaun produtu lokál, indústria ki’ik no média, enerjia renovavel, turizmu sustentável, edukasaun, saúde, dezenvolvimentu rekursu umanu no infraestrutura produtiva.

Investimentu iha setór hirak ne’e bele aumenta produsaun nasionál, hamenus dependénsia ba importasaun, kria empregu komunitaria no hadi’a rendimentu família sira nian. Liu husi dalan ida ne’e, Timor-Leste bele harii ekonomia ne’ebé bele sustenta nasaun maski rekursu petróleu no gás hotu ona.

Diversifikasaun ekonómika la’ós de’it fó atensaun ba setór ne’ebé la fór atensaun maibé mós bele harii kapasidade produtiva, aumenta valór produtu nasionál, kria merkadu no garante katak benefisiu ekonómika bele fahe ho justu ba povu tomak.

Apelu ba transparénsia no responsabilidade públika

La’o Hamutuk husu ba Governu no TimorGAP atu publika informasaun kompletu kona-ba akizisaun atuál Osaka Gas no Woodside no projetu Greater Sunrise, inklui kustu, razaun komersiál, estratéjia investimentu, kondisaun pagamentu, modelu no asumpsaun fundamentál sira, métodu avaliasaun, fonte finansiamentu, garantia, obrigasaun kapitál no responsabilidade potensiál, no impaktu sosiál no ambientál. Públiku no komunidade espesifiku afetadu sira tenke hetan informasaun kona-ba TimorGAP nian kapasidade, parseiru teknika no operasionál, estimativa kustu dezenvolvimentu, no projesaun reseita líkida no iha konsultasaun ne’ebé efetivu.

Ami husu Governu atu hetan avaliasaun ekonómika no finansiál independente, objetiva antes iha desizaun finál ba investimentu, inklui análize kona-ba risku ba atrazu, aumentu kustu, mudansa presu no merkadu, no komparasaun ho oportunidade investimentu iha setór produtivu. Parlamentu Nasionál no instituisaun sira seluk tenke hala’o kontrolu independente.

La’o Hamutuk la kontra dezenvolvimentu, soberania nasionál ka utilizasaun rekursu estrativa naun renovavél. Maibé, amo kontra modelu dezenvolvimentu ne’ebé kontinua hakle’an dependénsia estrativa, transfere risku finansiál ba povu no jerasaun sira iha futuru, enkuantu setór alternativa produtiva, renovavel no sustentável la hetan atensaun.

Konkluzaun

Akordu atu aumenta partisipasaun TimorGAP iha Greater Sunrise la’ós garantia katak Timor-Leste sei hetan benefísiu públiku ne’ebé boot liu, no bele aumenta krize bainhira Fundu Petrolíferu mamuk. Aumenta Partisipasaun presiza akompaña ho kapasidade operasionál, finansiamentu, transparénsia no responsabilidade institusionál.

Ba La’o Hamutuk, soberania ekonómika la’ós de’it kontrola persentajen partisipasaun iha kampu mina no gás. Soberania reál mak kapasidade atu foti desizaun informadu, proteje patrimóniu públiku, garante justisa entre jerasaun no transforma rekursu naturál ne’ebé limitadu ba ekonomia produtiva, renovavel, diversifikadu no ekonomia sustentável. Governu tenke asegura katak dezenvolvimentu Greater Sunrise la aumenta dependénsia ba Fundu Petrolíferu, maibé kontribui ba hametin ekonomia produtiva, kria empregu sustentável no proteje patrimóniu públiku ba jerasaun ohin no jerasaun tuir mai.

Buying a 100% Stake in Greater Sunrise:

Between Formal Sovereignty, Fiscal Risk and Future National Development

  Liga ba artigu ida ne'e iha lian Tetum 

This article discusses key issues about the decision by TimorGAP and the Government of Timor-Leste to buy a larger stake in the Greater Sunrise project. The acquisitions sparked a public debate on sovereignty, transparency, financial accountability and benefits for our people.

La'o Hamutuk recognizes that the agreements signed by TimorGAP, E.P. to purchase the shares in Greater Sunrise from Osaka Gas Australia and Woodside Energy changes its ownership structure. However, we see a need for a critical and transparent assessment, especially of costs, financial responsibility, operational capacity and real benefits to the people of Timor-Leste and to future generations.

Acquisition changes shareholding structure

Greater Sunrise was discovered in 1974, but still has not started production, due to Indonesia’s illegal occupation, maritime border disputes, disagreement over where to process the gas, and difficulties in agreeing on a viable development model, as well as because no potential investors have come forth.

Timor-Leste has previous experience with acquiring a stake in Greater Sunrise. In 2019, the Government bought 30% participation from ConocoPhillips and 26.56% from Shell Australia, totaling a 56.56% share now owned by TimorGAP. After buying this stake with $650 million borrowed from the Petroleum Fund, TimorGAP has not yet begun to repay this loan.

On 2 September 2026, TimorGAP announced an agreement to purchase an additional 10% stake from Osaka Gas Australia. Then, on 27 October 2026, TimorGAP signed a purchase and sale agreement with Woodside Energy to purchase its 33.44% stake in Greater Sunrise. The agreement with Woodside sets a maximum price of $200 million, which will be paid in stages, mostly after Greater Sunrise begins production. The amount to be paid to Osaka Gas is still secret.

After the agreements with Osaka Gas and Woodside receive necessary approvals, TimorGAP will own 100% of Greater Sunrise. These agreements do not only change the percentage of participation, but also raise important questions about the commercial reasons that led ConocoPhillips, Shell, Osaka Gas and Woodside to sell their interests, and about the capacity of TimorGAP and Timor-Leste to assume responsibilities previously shared with international partners.

La'o Hamutuk believes that the companies' decisions to sell their stakes indicates that they expect that Greater Sunrise is commercially unviable or not as profitable as they would like; perhaps they do not want to wait longer for a project that has already been in process for 52 years. However, their decisions to abandon Greater Sunrise should be clearly and objectively analyzed, and our Government should explain how it will ensure technical, operational and financial capacity to develop the project, including how much capital or total investment will come from the Petroleum Fund, potential risks and how to manage them, and whether there are foreign investors ready to advance several billion dollars. If not, where will the money come from? TimorGAP and other project proponents must not deal with this issue only through transient patriotism and secret contracts by public institutions.

100% participation does not guarantee public benefit

La'o Hamutuk understands that TimorGAP's increased participation in Greater Sunrise may strengthen its influence in negotiations and commercial decisions, but that does not guarantee project viability, operational capacity or economic benefits to the State and people of Timor-Leste. The enlarged share also increases capital requirements and financial liability. La'o Hamutuk estimates the capital cost for Greater Sunrise upstream at more than $16 billion, not including the cost of paying for Osaka Gas and Woodside's stakes. When these two participants, who would have shared investment and risk, sell their interests, TimorGAP's responsibility increases by $7 billion.

It is important to distinguish between commercial participation and sovereign authority to make decisions. Part of Greater Sunrise is still in Australian territory and the field is under the Special Regime established by the 2018 Maritime Boundary Treaty between Timor-Leste and Australia. Major decisions, including development plans, are subject to governance mechanisms and consensus under the Treaty. Therefore, even when TimorGAP owns the entire project, this does not mean that Timor-Leste alone can make all decisions regarding the development of the project. 

For La'o Hamutuk, economic sovereignty is not measured only by the percentage of participation in the project, but must be measured by technical and financial capacity, bargaining power, transparency, risk management and the ability to transform petroleum resources into sustainable public benefit. Therefore, the fundamental question is not only whether Timor-Leste will control 100% participation but increased commercial interest and capital needs; the effective obligations depend on the contract and financing mechanisms.

Financial Risk and the Assets of Future Generations

The acquisition experience in 2019 showed that a stake in Greater Sunrise has major financial consequences. TimorGAP borrowed $650 million from the Petroleum Fund with an annual interest rate of 4.5% and repayment over 18 years after a grace period of eight years, which ends in 2027 but will probably be extended.

The participating interest is valued at zero in TimorGAP's financial statements, due to uncertainty about the project's fiscal benefits and regulatory regime. Therefore, we need careful assessment of investment risk while the development concept, commercial conditions and fiscal structure remain undecided.

La'o Hamutuk is concerned that the new acquisition will increase the capital needs and financial responsibility of TimorGAP and Timor-Leste, while the financing structure is not clear to the public. Therefore, the Government must explain where the financing will come from -- borrowing, the State budget, the Petroleum Fund or other sources -- and who will be responsible when development costs increase or the project is delayed.

Regarding the possibility of participation of or investment from Chinese companies, this could bring opportunities for capital, technology and market access, but will also pose financial, contractual and geopolitical risks, especially with Australia. There have been discussions about the involvement of Chinese companies, but so far there is no agreement for their participation in the project.

The Petroleum Fund is a national asset derived from non-renewable natural resources; therefore, it must be managed responsibly to benefit current and future generations, and not treated as an unlimited source of financing for speculative projects whose returns are still unclear.

Extractive dependence and the need for alternatives

La'o Hamutuk's fundamental concern is not only the acquisition price or the amount to be borrowed, but that Timor-Leste continues to place high hopes on extraction and the oil and gas industry, while productive sectors do not receive enough investment or priority.

This situation carries a risk known in the development literature as the resource curse: when a country depends on revenue from non-renewable resource extraction, it concentrates political decisions and public investment in the extractive sector, while productivity, sustainability, local industries employment and economic diversification are ignored.

We need to consider Timor-Leste's experience, which shows that decades of depending on the Petroleum Fund and investing in capital-intensive projects crowds out opportunities to build a strong, sustainable and diversified productive economy.

Political prioritization should not replace cost-benefit and risk analyses. Every extractive project needs to be technically, commercially and financially viable, with expected public benefits that justify the costs, obligations and risks that the State and the people take on. Petroleum projects are a principal cause of climate change and bring many other social and environmental impacts. The climate crisis requires structural changes in the global economy, including discussions on phasing out fossil fuels. If Greater Sunrise eventually produces LNG, it could operate until 2055, by which time fossil fuels may be outlawed.

Timor-Leste needs to shift from extractive dependency to a productive, renewable, diversified and sustainable economy. This requires prioritizing agriculture and food sovereignty, fisheries, local product processing, small and medium-sized industries, renewable energy, sustainable tourism, education, health, human resource development and productive infrastructure.

Investment in these sectors can increase national production, reduce dependence on imports, create community jobs and improve household incomes. In this way, Timor-Leste can build an economy that will sustain the country even after its oil and gas resources are exhausted. Economic diversification not only supports neglected sectors, but can also build productive capacity, increase the value of national products, create markets and ensure that economic benefits are shared by all our people.

Call for transparency and public accountability

La'o Hamutuk calls on the Government and TimorGAP to publish complete information on the recent acquisitions from Osaka Gas and Woodside and on the Greater Sunrise project, including costs, commercial rationale, investment strategy, payment terms, models and underlying assumptions, sources of financing, capital obligations, potential liabilities, and social and environmental impacts. The public, especially affected communities should be informed about TimorGAP's capacity, operational and technical partners, estimated development costs and projected net state revenue and consulted meaningfully.

We urge the Government to get an independent, objective economic and financial assessment before making a final investment decision, including analyses of the risks of delay, cost increases, price and market changes, and comparison with investment opportunities in productive sectors. The National Parliament and other oversight institutions should exercise independent control.

La'o Hamutuk does not oppose development, national sovereignty or the use of non-renewable resources. However, we are against development models that continue to increase extractive dependence and impose financial risks on our people and future generations, while ignoring productive, renewable and sustainable alternatives.

Conclusion

The agreements to increase TimorGAP's stake in Greater Sunrise do not guarantee that Timor-Leste will receive greater public benefits and could exacerbate the crisis when the Petroleum Fund is exhausted. Increased participation must be accompanied by operational capacity, financing, transparency and institutional accountability.

For La'o Hamutuk, economic sovereignty is not merely about controlling the percentage of participation in an oil and gas field. Real sovereignty is the capacity to make informed decisions, protect public assets, ensure intergenerational justice and transform limited natural resources into a productive, renewable, diversified and sustainable economy. The Government must ensure that the development of Greater Sunrise does not increase dependence on the Petroleum Fund, but instead contributes to a productive economy, sustainable employment and the protection of public assets for today's and tomorrow's generations.

Proposta OJE 2027 Seidauk Garante Sustentabilidade Fiskál no Reziliénsia Ekonómika

 Link to this article in English  

La’o Hamutuk apresia esforsu Governu nian iha elaborasaun proposta OJE ba 2027, inklui Konsulta Sidadania iha munisípiu hotu to’o aprezentasaun proposta OJE ba Parlamentu Nasionál 2027, no hala’o seminariu Jornada Orsamentál. Maibé, presiza hadia’ prosesu konsultasaun atu garante partisipasaun públika ne’ebé efetiva no reflete ba prioridade povu nian.

Publikasaun dokumentu PPL no livru (OJE) 2027 seidauk garante asesu públiku ne’ebé kompletu no fasil, tanba dokumentu balun difísil atu asesu no iha inkonsisténsia. Ministériu Finansa no Parlamentu Nasionál tenke garante katak dokumentu orsamentál publika iha tempu sufisiente no fasil atu asesu, atu sidadaun no sosiedade sivíl bele analiza no fó kontribuisaun.

La’o Hamutuk mós preokupa ho diferensa iha projesaun levantamentu Fundu Petrolíferu entre Tabela 60, iha Livru Relatóriu Orsamentál, no Tabela 5, iha Livru Elementus Informativu, Volume I. Governu presiza esplika no rezolve diferensa ida ne’e atu garante informasaun orsamentál ne’ebé konsistente no bele fiar. Preokupasaun prinsipál sira seluk kona-ba Proposta Lei OJE 2027 mak hanesan tuir mai;

Sustentabilidade Fiskál no Fundu Petrolífeiru

Iha Proposta OJE 2027, reseita ba OJE sei depende maka’as ba Fundu Petrolífeiru, enkuantu reseita doméstika kontribui de’it parte ki’ik ba orsamentu. Maske nune’e despeza estadu kontinua aumenta, inklui saláriu no vensimentu, ne’ebé sa’e husi tokon $487 ba tokon $523, no despeza totál projeta sa’e to’o 12% kompara ho OJE 2026. Situasaun ida ne’e hatudu katak konsolidasaun fiskál seidauk rezolve problema estruturál sira.

La’o Hamutuk mós preokupa ho Proposta do Lei OJE iha Artigu 5 sobre Dívida Públiku, ne’ebé husu atu autoriza Governu hodi halo empréstimu públiku to’o biliaun $1.600 hodi finansia infraestrutura, atividade petróleu no gás inklui, atividade sira seluk hodi garantia ekonomia Timor-Leste. Dívida ho montante boot no prazu naruk bele aumenta risku fiskál no hatodan jerasaun futuru se investimentu sira la prodús retornu ekonómiku ne’ebé klaru.

Kreximentu Ekonómiku no Diversifikasaun Ekonomia

Maski projesaun kreximentu PIB hatudu 4,3% iha 2026 no sei sa’e ba 4,6% iha 2027, kreximentu ida ne’e seidauk prova ekonomia nasionál produtiva, inkluziva no sustentável. Governu presiza haree mós indikadór sira seluk hanesan; kriasaun empregu, produtividade setór privadu, pobreza, inflasaun, balansu komérsiu no kapasidade kompra família sira, La’o Hamutuk konsidera Timor-Leste nian kreximentu PIB la sufisiente bainhira indikadór sósiu ekonómiku seluk la hatudu progresu.

Relatóriu Komérsiu Esternu 2025 hatudu défise komersiál sasán liu tokon $900, ne’ebé reflete dependénsia maka’as ba produtu importadu. Entretantu, Taxa dezempregu 1,6%–1,8% iha 2025, maibé partisipasaun forsa traballu 30,5% de’it, maioria traballadór iha setór informál no la tama iha estatístika dezempregu, empregu formál limitadu, liu-liu oportunidade aborsaun ba foinsa’e sira. 

La’o Hamutuk preokupa katak prioridade orsamentál kontinua orienta ba atividade petróleu no Greater Sunrise, enkuantu setór produtivu hanesan agrikultura, peskas, turizmu, indústria manufatura no empreza ki’ik no médiu seidauk hetan investimentu adekuadu. Maski despeza estadu iha investimentu setór Ekonomia Azúl sa’e to’o tokon $492, maibé programa espesífiku ba ekonomia azúl to’o de’it 3%, no kuaze 55% mak aloka ba setór petróleu no gas maske atividade mina-rai no gás la’ós parte husi ekonomia azúl.

Reseita Estadu, Seguransa Ai-han no Investimentu Estratéjiku

La’o Hamutuk apresia esforsu Governu nian atu reforma sistema impostu hodi aumenta reseita doméstika. Maibé, introdusaun Impostu Valór Akresentadu (IVA) no impostu seletivu presiza iha avaliasaun kle’an atu evita todan ba família vulnerável sira ho rendimentu ki’ik.

Ami preokupa katak proposta OJE ba 2027, setór estratejiku sira ne’ebé bele ajuda kontribui ba diversifikasaun ekonomika hotu totál hetan de’it 18%, bele hetan informasaun no dadus iha submisaun. Setór estratejiku hirak ne’e, loloos tenke simu oportunidade finansiál husi Fundu Petroliferu hodi bele transforma ekonomia atuál ba diresaun ida ne’ebé sustentavel.

Iha Proposta OJE 2027, agrikultura hetan de’it 2,1% husi alokasaun orsamentál, enkuantu finansiamentu resposta ba mudansa klimátika mós limitadu. Maski Governu rekoñese importánsia husi agrikultura, seidauk hatudu prioridade ne’ebé sufisiente iha asaun konkretu. Resposta ba problema estruturál sira labele limita de’it husi subsidiu temporariu.

Pandemia COVID-19 no konflitu iha Médiu Oriente iha 2026, inklui risku aumentu folin ai-han, hatudu vulnerabilidade Timor-Leste nian tanba depende ba merkadu internasionál. 

Projetu Tasi Mane, Greater Sunrise no Fundu Infraestrutura

La’o Hamutuk preokupa viabilidade ekonómika, retornu finanseiru no impaktu Projetu Tasi Mane no atividade petróleu sira seluk. Maski Governu gasta ona despeza balun, benefísiu sustentável ba ekonomia no povu seidauk klaru.

Iha Proposta OJE 2027, MPRM propoin alokasaun signifikativa ba atividade sira relasiona ho Greater Sunrise, inklui tokon $193,5 ba negosiasaun no estudu dezenvolvimentu, tokon $38,35 ba estudu tékniku pipeline ba Natarbora, no montante seluk ba estudu Kampu Bayu-Undan no Projetu Tasi Mane, inklui programa sira seluk ne’ebé MPRM propoin iha Proposta OJE 2027.

Fundu Infraestrutura mós presiza planeamentu realistíku. Despeza ne’ebé propoin ba 2027 tokon $327, no projesaun ba 2028 aumenta maka’as to’o biliaun $1.807. La’o Hamutuk preokupa katak montante boot bele sai risku se instituisaun sira la iha kapasidade atu planeia, ezekuta no monitoriza projetu ho kualidade, transparénsia no responsabilidade.

Rekomendasaun

Bazeia ba preokupasaun sira ne’ebé temi iha leten, La’o Hamutuk rekomenda ba Governu no Parlamentu Nasionál atu konsidera no hala’o medida sira tuir mai:

1. Hadi’a transparénsia no partisipasaun públika. Publika dokumentu orsamentál hotu-hotu iha tempu sufisiente, kompletu, konsistente no fasil atu asesu, no garante oportunidade sufisiente ba publiku interesada no sosiedade sivíl atu analiza no fó kontribuisaun antes foti aprovasaun finál globál.
   
   
2. Hametin sustentabilidade fiskál no jestaun Fundu Petróleu. Estabelese estratéjia fiskál ne’ebé klaru no bele sukat, hodi hamenus dependénsia ba Fundu Petróleu, aumenta reseita doméstika no asegura katak despeza Estadu tuir kapasidade finanseira nasaun nian iha tempu naruk.
   
   
3. Revee ho rigor proposta dívida públika to’o tokon $1.6. Antes fó autorizasaun, avalia kapasidade Estadu atu selu fila-fali empréstimu, kustu finanseiru, risku no retornu ekonómiku no sosiál, liu-liu ba atividade petróleu no gás, atu evita risku fiskál no todan ba jerasaun sira iha futuru.
   
   
4. Garante despeza ba projetu estratéjiku sira ho avaliasaun independente. Antes halo despeza públika boot ba Projetu Tasi Mane, Greater Sunrise no atividade estrativa sira, liu-liu iha 2027 no 2028, Governu presiza publika estudu viabilidade, kustu totál, fonte finansiamentu, investidór, retornu esperadu no risku ambientál no sosiál. Desizaun kona-ba investimentu tenke bazeia ba evidénsia ne’ebé transparente no komparasaun ho alternativa sira ne’ebé bele fó benefísiu sustentável ba povu.
   
   
5. Garante reforma tributária ne’ebé justu. Antes introdús Impostu Valór Akresentadu (IVA) no impostu seletivu, avalia impaktu ba família vulnerável sira, liu-liu família ho rendimentu ki’ik, no prepara medida atu proteje sira nian asesu ba ai-han nutritivu no nesesidade bázika.
   
   
6. Prioritiza seguransa ai-han no reziliénsia hasoru mudansa klimátika. Aumenta investimentu iha produsaun ai-han lokál, irrigasaun, jestaun bee, peskiza agríkola, infraestrutura no apoiu ba agrikultór sira, atu hamenus vulnerabilidade ba merkadu internasionál no mudansa folin ai-han.
   
   
7. Rediresiona investimentu ba diversifikasaun ekonomia no empregu sustentável. Hametin setór agrikultura, peska, turizmu, indústria no empreza ki’ik no médiu, hodi aumenta produsaun lokál, kria oportunidade servisu, hamenus dependénsia ba importasaun no harii baze ekonómika ne’ebé sustentável liu.

The Proposed 2027 Budget Does Not Ensure Fiscal Sustainability or Economic Resilience

 Liga ba blog ida ne'e iha lian Tetum  

La'o Hamutuk appreciates the Government's efforts to elaborate the 2027 budget proposal, from the Citizens' Consultation in all municipalities to the presentation of the budget proposal to the National Parliament, and the Budget Day seminar. However, the consultation process needs to be improved to ensure effective public participation and reflect the priorities of the people.

The publication of the 2027 Proposed budget law and books does not guarantee complete and easy public access, as some documents are hard to find and have inconsistencies. The Ministry of Finance and the National Parliament must ensure that budget documents are published in sufficient time and easily accessible, so that citizens and civil society can analyze and contribute.

La'o Hamutuk is concerned about the difference in projected Petroleum Fund withdrawals between Table 60, in the Budget Report Book, and Table 5, in the Informative Elements Book, Volume I. The Government needs to explain and resolve this difference to ensure consistent and reliable budget information. Our other main concerns regarding the 2027 Budget Bill are as follows:

Fiscal Sustainability and the Petroleum Fund

In the 2027 Budget Proposal, budget revenues will depend heavily on the Petroleum Fund, while domestic revenues contribute only a small part. However, state expenditure continues to increase, including salaries and wages, which increased from $487 million to $523 million, and total expenditure is projected to increase by 12% compared to 2026. This shows that fiscal consolidation has not solved structural problems.

La'o Hamutuk is also concerned with Article 5 in the Budget Bill on Public Debt, which authorizes the Government to contract up to $1.6 billion in loans to finance infrastructure, oil and gas activities  and other activities to support economic security. Large amounts of long-term debt increase fiscal risk and burden future generations if investments do not produce clear economic returns.

Growth and Economic Diversification

Although the projected GDP growth is 4.3% in 2026 and will rise to 4.6% in 2027, this growth has not indicated a productive, inclusive and sustainable national economy. The government needs to look at other indicators such as; job creation, private sector productivity, poverty, inflation, trade balance and household purchasing power. La'o Hamutuk considers that Timor-Leste's GDP growth is not enough when other socio-economic indicators do not show progress.

The 2025 External Trade Statistics Report shows a goods trade deficit of more than $900 billion, reflecting a heavy reliance on imported products. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is 1.6%-1.8% in 2025, but the labor force participation is only 30.5%; most workers are in the informal sector and are not included in unemployment statistics There is limited formal employment, especially opportunities for young people.

La'o Hamutuk is concerned that budgetary priorities continue to be oriented to petroleum activities and Greater Sunrise, while productive sectors such as agriculture, fisheries, tourism, manufacturing, and small and medium enterprises do not yet receive adequate investment. Although state expenditure on investment in the Blue Economy increased to $492 million, the specific program for the Blue Economy only grew 3%, and almost 55% was allocated to oil and gas even though oil and gas activities are not part of the Blue Economy.

State Revenue, Food Security and Strategic Investment

La'o Hamutuk appreciates the Government's efforts to reform the tax system to increase domestic revenue. However, the introduction of Value Added Tax (VAT) and selective taxation need to be thoroughly evaluated to avoid burdening vulnerable low-income families.

We are concerned that in the proposed 2027 budget, strategic sectors that can contribute to economic diversification total only 18%; more data is in our submission. These strategic sectors should get financial opportunities from the Petroleum Fund to transform the current economy into a sustainable direction.

In the proposed 2027 Budget, agriculture receives only 2.1% of the budgetary allocation, while climate change response funding is also limited. Although the Government recognizes the importance of agriculture, it has not prioritized concrete actions. Responses to structural problems should not be limited to temporary subsidies.

The COVID-19 pandemic and 2026 conflict in the Middle East, leading to rising food prices, show Timor-Leste's vulnerability to dependence on the international market.

Tasi Mane Project, Greater Sunrise and the Infrastructure Fund

La'o Hamutuk is concerned about the economic viability, financial return and impact of the Tasi Mane Project and other petroleum activities. Although the Government has already spent some money, the sustainable benefits to the economy and the people are not yet clear.

In the 2027 Budget Proposal, MPRM proposes significant allocations for activities related to Greater Sunrise, including $193.5 million for negotiations and development studies, $38.35 million for a Natarbora pipeline technical study, and other amounts for Bayu-Undan and Tasi Mane Project studies, as well as other programs.

The Infrastructure Fund also requires realistic planning. The proposed expenditure for 2027 is $327 million, and the projection for 2028 increases greatly significantly to $1.807 billion. La'o Hamutuk is concerned that large amounts of money may be wasted if institutions do not have the capacity to plan, execute and monitor projects with quality, transparency and accountability.

Recommendations

Based on the above concerns, La'o Hamutuk recommends that the Government and the National Parliament consider and implement the following measures:

1. Improve transparency and public participation. Publish all budget documents in a timely, complete, consistent and easy-to-access manner, and ensure sufficient opportunity for the public and civil society to analyze and contribute before final approval.
   
   
2. Strengthen fiscal sustainability and management of the Petroleum Fund. Establish a clear and measurable fiscal strategy to reduce dependence on the Petroleum Fund, increase domestic revenues and ensure that State expenditure is in line with the country's long-term financial capacity.
    
3. Rigorously review public debt proposals up to $1.6 billion before authorizing them. Assess the State's capacity to repay loans, financial costs, economic and social risks and returns, especially for oil and gas activities, to avoid fiscal risks and burdens on future generations.
   
   
4. Condition expenditure on strategic projects with independent evaluations. Before making large public expenditures on the Tasi Mane Project, Greater Sunrise and extractive activities, especially in 2027 and 2028, the Government should publish a feasibility study including total costs, sources of financing, investors, expected return and environmental and social risks. Investment decisions should be based on transparent evidence and compared with alternatives that can provide sustainable benefits to the people.
   
   
5. Ensure fair tax reform. Before introducing a Value Added Tax (VAT) and selective taxation, assess the impact on vulnerable families, especially low-income families, and prepare measures to protect their access to nutritious food and basic necessities.
   
   
6. Prioritize food security and resilience to climate change. Increase investment in local food production, irrigation, water management, agricultural research, infrastructure and support to farmers, to reduce vulnerability to international markets and food price changes.
   
   
7. Redirect investment towards economic diversification and sustainable employment. Strengthen agriculture, fisheries, tourism, manufacturing and small and medium enterprises, to increase local production, create jobs, reduce dependence on imports and build a more sustainable economic base.

Pobreza iha Timor-Leste: Taxa Pobreza Nasionál Tun, Maibé kontinua nafatin Dezigualdade Ekonómika no Dezafiu Estruturál

Institutu Nasionál Estatístika Timor-Leste (INETL), I.P., hamutuk ho Ministériu Finansa, publika sumáriu husi rezultadu Peskiza Padraun Moris iha Timor-Leste 2024 (TLSLS 2024). Peskiza ida ne’e hala’o entre Abril no Outubru 2024, ho amostra uma-kain hamutuk 7.424, atu avalia situasaun pobreza, dezigualdade no kondisaun moris iha Timor-Leste. Rezultadu husi peskiza fó baze importante ba diskusaun públika no formulasaun polítika publika ne’ebé responde ba povu nian nesesidade. Infelizmente, ami nota katak, laiha informasaun no dados sira relevante kada tinan lima no dados peskiza ida ne’e publika tarde liu tinan rua hafoin peskiza.

Ba La’o Hamutuk, dadus hirak ne’e tenke analiza ho kritika no transparente atu garante katak progresu ne’ebé rejista iha estatístika tradús ba hadi’ak povu nian moris no hamenus dezigualdade iha sosiedade.

Relatóriu peskiza hatudu katak taxa pobreza nasionál tun husi 48,4% iha 2014 ba 37,0% iha 2024.  Maibé, importante atu nota katak valór 48,4% ba 2014 mak estimativa ne’ebé ajusta liu husi métodu estatístiku atu permite komparasaun ho 2024. Valór ida ne’e la hanesan ho estimativa 41,8% ne’ebé relata iha publikasaun orijinál kona-ba 2014, tanba estimativa rua ne’e bazeia ba métodu ne’ebé diferente. Tanba ne’e, komparasaun dokumentu rua tenke uza valór ne’ebé metodolojikamente komparável, atu evita interpretasaun sala kona-ba evolusaun pobreza iha Timor-Leste. Durante tinan 10 populasaun Timor-Leste aumenta 17,6%.

Redusaun taxa pobreza nasionál nudár progresu importante ba povu no nasaun Timor-Leste. Maibé, rezultadu ida ne’e la signifika katak problema pobreza rezolve ona ka família sira hotu hetan benefísiu husi dezenvolvimentu ho maneira iguál. Taxa pobreza nasionál fó vizaun jerál, maibé presiza analiza mós distribuisaun pobreza, dezigualdade, rendimentu família, oportunidade servisu no asesu ba nesesidade bázika. Situasaun ida ne’e importante atu komprende se progresu ekonómiku lori benefísiu ba populasaun tomak ka benefísiu sira konsentra liu iha grupu balu.

Pobreza rurál no urbana: diferensa ne’ebé kontinua boot

TLSLS 2024 hatudu katak disparidade entre área rurál no urbana kontinua boot. Iha 2024, taxa pobreza iha área rurál 44,45%, kompara ho 18,43% iha área urbana. Ida ne’e signifika katak ema ne’ebé hela iha área rurál enfrenta pobreza ne’ebé grave liu kompara ho ema ne’ebé hela iha área urbana.

Tuir estimativa, ema na’in 523,000 ne’ebé moris iha situasaun pobreza, husi númeru ne’e, ema na’in 449,000, ka besik 86%, hela iha área rurál. Dadus ida ne’e hatudu katak pobreza iha Timor-Leste iha disparidade jeográfika ne’ebé klaru. Taxa pobreza iha área rurál la’ós de’it aas liu duké iha área urbana, maibé maioria ema sira ne’ebé moris iha situasaun pobreza mós hela iha área rurál.

Diferensa ida ne’e presiza hetan atensaun espesífika husi Governu, Parlamentu Nasionál no parseiru dezenvolvimentu sira. Polítika públika tenke haree ba obstákulu estruturál ne’ebé limita família rurál atu hadi’a sira nian moris, inklui falta oportunidade servisu, produtividade agrikultura ne’ebé ki’ik, asesu limitadu ba merkadu, transporte ne’ebé karu, infraestrutura ne’ebé seidauk sufisiente no asesu ba servisu báziku ne’ebé la hanesan iha fatin hotu. Ita mós presiza fó atensaun katak pobreza ne’ebé tun iha area urbana mós kontribui maka’as husi despeza públiku ne’ebé barak liu mai husi levantamentu Fundu Petrolíferu, Fundu ne’ebé ameasa atu hotu durante dékada ida tuir mai ka sedu liu.

Maibé, diferensa entre área rurál no urbana la bele diskute de’it husi lokálizasaun maibé presiza analiza mós fonte rendimentu, tipu empregu, produtividade, kustu moris, propriedade no asesu ba rekursu produtivu. Análize ne’ebé fahe dadus tuir munisípiu, seksu, idade, grupu rendimentu no tipu atividade ekonómika sei bele ajuda identifika grupu sira ne’ebé presiza apoiu prioritáriu no polítika saida mak bele responde ba sira nian nesesidade.

Pobreza  la’ós de’it problema individuál ka família ida-idak nian situasaun sósiu ekonómiku maibé mós iha relasaun ho estrutura ekonómika, distribuisaun oportunidade, asesu ba servisu públiku no orientasaun investimentu estadu. Tanba ne’e, hamenus pobreza presiza polítika ne’ebé la limita ba asisténsia temporária, maibé hametin kapasidade família no komunidade atu hetan rendimentu sustentável no asesu ba nesesidade bázika.

Dezigualdade ekonómika aumenta maski pobreza tun

Aleinde redusaun taxa pobreza, TLSLS 2024 hatudu katak dezigualdade ekonómika aumenta. Koefisiente Gini, indikadór estatístiku ne’ebé uza atu sukat dezigualdade iha distribuisaun, aumenta husi 0,31 iha 2014 ba 0,36 iha 2024. Iha indikadór ida ne’e, valór besik zero hatudu distribuisaun ne’ebé iguál liu, enkuantu valór besik ida hatudu dezigualdade ne’ebé aas liu. Aumentu 0,05 pontu Gini hatudu katak dezigualdade iha distribuisaun konsumu aumenta durante períodu ne’e.

Situasaun ida ne’e hatudu katak redusaun pobreza no redusaun dezigualdade la’ós rezultadu ne’ebé automatikamente akontese hamutuk. Pobreza bele tun, maibé se aumentu konsumu ka rendimentu la akontese ho ekuidade, diferensa entre grupu sira iha sosiedade bele sai boot liu tan.

Maibé, Koefisiente Gini de’it la deskreve kauza dezigualdade ka identifika grupu sira ne’ebé hetan benefísiu boot liu husi dezenvolvimentu. Atu komprende dinámika ida ne’e, presiza analiza distribuisaun konsumu tuir grupu rendimentu, diferensa entre área rurál no urbana, fonte rendimentu, empregu, transferénsia sosiál no asesu ba rekursu ekonómiku. Análize ne’e tenke mós haree ba distribuisaun benefísiu husi despeza públika, investimentu privadu no oportunidade ekonómika.

Ba La’o Hamutuk, avaliasaun dezenvolvimentu la bele haree de’it taxa kreximentu PIB ka redusaun taxa pobreza nasionál. Presiza hatene se mak hetan benefísiu husi kreximentu, se mak kontinua hela iha kotuk no oinsá polítika públika bele hamenus dezigualdade. Governu no INETL tenke publika análize desagregadu no informasaun metodolójiku ne’ebé klaru, atu sosiedade bele komprende no avalia mudansa ne’ebé akontese. Presiza mós nota katak, presiza uza Gini atu halo komparasaun maibé menus ema riku sira iha Timor-Leste mak partisipa iha peskiza ida ne’e, nune’e la dun iha reprezentasaun signifikante ruma. 

Progresu iha servisu báziku tenke akompaña ho kualidade no sustentabilidade

TLSLS 2024 mós hatudu progresu iha asesu ba infraestrutura bázika. Entre 2014 no 2024, persentajen populasaun ne’ebé la iha asesu ba eletrisidade tun husi 27,9% ba 1,7%. Persentajen populasaun ne’ebé la iha asesu ba bee hemu seguru tun husi 25,4% ba 9,1%, enkuantu persentajen ne’ebé la iha asesu ba saneamentu adekuadu tun husi 39,6% ba 24,4%. Iha períodu hanesan, persentajen populasaun ne’ebé hela iha uma ne’ebé relatóriu konsidera adekuada aumenta husi 22,4% ba 42,6%.

Progresu hirak ne’e importante ba hadi’a kondisaun moris, maibé dadus kona-ba asesu la signifika automatikamente katak servisu hirak ne’e iha kualidade di’ak, funsiona durante tempu tomak, kustu asesivel ka sustentável. Família sira bele iha ligasaun eletrisidade, maibé kontinuidade fornesimentu no kustu atu selu ba eletrisidade mós afeta sira nian moris – liu-liu folin atu selu ba eletrisidade sa’e liu tan bainhira Timor-Leste sofre rai naruk fiskál. Hanesan mós, asesu ba fonte bee la garante katak bee seguru no sufisiente ho maneira sustentavel.

Tanba ne’e, polítika públika labele limite de’it ba infraestrutura ne’ebé harii ka númeru uma-kain ne’ebé hetan asesu, maibé mós kualidade, estavel, sustentavel, kustu no manutensaun servisu. Informasaun kona-ba ezekusaun orsamentál, kustu operasaun, rezultadu no benefisiáriu tenke disponivel ba públiku, atu permite komunidade no Parlamentu Nasionál monitoriza prestasaun servisu.

Iha setór enerjia, dependénsia ba kombustivel solar husi importasaun no kustu operasaun ba sistema eletrisidade presiza hetan análize transparente. Investimentu iha enerjia renovavel, efisiénsia enérjetika no manutensaun rede tenke sai parte husi estratéjia nasionál ne’ebé buka hametin seguransa enérjetika no hamenus vulnerabilidade ba mudansa iha folin importasaun. Polítika ne’e mós presiza konsidera kapasidade família atu selu no kustu tomak durante tempu naruk.

Iha setór bee, asesu ba fonte bee la garante katak komunidade hetan bee seguru no sufisiente, estavel no sustentavel. Mudansa klimátika, udan ne’ebé la regulár, infraestrutura limitadu no jestaun rekursu bele aumenta komunidade nian vulnerabilidade. Tanba ne’e, protesaun bee-matan, rekolla no armazenamentu bee-udan, manutensaun ba sistema abastesimentu no monitorizasaun kualidade bee tenke sai prioridade. Planeamentu ba bee no enerjia mós tenke iha koordenasaun di’ak, liu-liu bainhira hasai bee husi rai ne’ebé depende ba eletrisidade.

Pobreza rurál no nesesidade atu hametin ekonomia doméstika

Agrikultura iha papél importante iha família rurál sira nian moris, seguransa ai-han no ekonomia nasionál. Tuir Organizasaun Nasoins Unidas ba Ai-han no Agrikultura (FAO), agrikultura kontribui 16,7% ba Produtu Internu Brutu (PIB) iha 2023 no sai fonte moris ba parte boot husi populasaun. FAO mós hatudu katak produtividade agrikultura kontinua ki’ik, ho obstákulu ne’ebé inklui asesu limitadu ba ekipamentu, irrigasaun, merkadu no ligasaun valór produtu. Tuir konta nasionál INETL, agrikultura kontribui 18,8% iha 2025.

Maibé, kontribuisaun agrikultura ba PIB la signifika katak agrikultór ki’ik sira hetan rendimentu adekuadu ka katak família rurál sira hotu iha seguransa ai-han. Produtór sira presiza asesu ba bee no irrigasaun, ekipamentu, asisténsia téknika, armazenamentu, transporte, kréditu ne’ebé apropriadu no merkadu ne’ebé justu.

Investimentu públiku tenke responde ba nesesidade hirak ne’e, la’ós liu de’it husi projetu infraestrutura boot, maibé mós liu husi apoiu prátiku ba agrikultura familiár no negósiu lokál. Aumenta produtividade, hamenus lakon produtu antes, durante no hafoin koleta, hadi’a ligasaun entre produtór no merkadu, no dezenvolve prosesamentu produtu iha rai-laran bele ajuda aumenta rendimentu família no kria oportunidade servisu.

Governu presiza mós konsidera oinsá polítika komérsiu, importasaun, transporte no infraestrutura sira bele afeta produtór lokál sira, parte sira interesada halo kampaña no edukasaun populár hodi sosa no konsumu produtu lokál atu kontribui ba hetan solusaun signifikante ba dezafiu existente. Investimentu iha produsaun doméstika tenke akompaña ho apoiu tékniku, asesu merkadu no planeamentu ne’ebé permite agrikultór sira hetan benefísiu husi sira nian produtu. La ho medida hirak ne’e, aumentu investimentu la garante katak produsaun aumenta ka rendimentu família sai di’ak liu tan.

Pobreza la’ós problema rendimentu de’it , maibé iha relasaun ho nutrisaun, saúde, edukasaun, bee hemu seguru, saneamentu no uma ne’ebé seguru ne’ebé bele influensia kapasidade família sira atu aprende, servisu no partisipa iha vida públika. Tanba ne’e, polítika publika kontra pobreza presiza iha estratéjia integradu, ho prioridade ba komunidade rurál no família sira ne’ebé enfrenta falta nesesidade bázika oioin. Programa sira tenke dezenvolve ho partisipasaun komunidade, inklui feto, joven, ema ho defisiénsia no grupu sira ne’ebé normálmente menus asesu ba prosesu desizaun.

OJE 2027 no Fundu Petrolíferu: rekursu públiku tenke transforma ekonomia

Orsamentu Jerál Estadu (OJE) nudár instrumentu importante atu uza rekursu públiku ba hadi’a povu nian moris. Proposta OJE 2027 ho montante biliaun $2.6 ne’ebé agora daudaun iha prosesu apresiasaun parlamentár no tuir kalendáriu sira durante fulan outobru no novembru sei halo audiénsia parlamentár no komisaun sei relatóriu paresér antes diskusaun iha plenária parlamentár.

Maibé, montante orsamentu de’it seidauk garante ba redusaun pobreza se despeza sira la ajuda atu aumenta produtividade, rendimentu família no oportunidade servisu. Parlamentu Nasionál no parte interesada sira labele avalia de’it montante hira mak Governu husu atu gasta, maibé mós diskute atu gasta oinsá, sé mak hetan benefísiu, no rezultadu ne’e sustentável ka lae.

Programa prinsipál sira tenke publika objetivu ne’ebé bele sukat, liña baze, benefisiáriu, prazu, kustu, entidade responsavel no indikadór husi rezultadu sira. Informasaun kona-ba ezekusaun orsamentál no rezultadu tenke disponivel ho regularidade no iha formatu ne’ebé públiku bele asesu. Ida ne’e permite Parlamentu, parte interesada hotu no komunidade sira bele diskute rekursu públiku bele prodús mudansa real iha povu nian moris ka lae.

Fundu Petrolíferu nudár patrimóniu nasionál ne’ebé depende ba rekursu naturál ne’ebé la renovavel. Tanba ne’e, nian utilizasaun tenke trata tuir sustentabilidade fiskál, benefísiu sosiál no ekonómiku, kapasidade produtiva ne’ebé harii no direitu jerasaun sira iha futuru. Se despeza públika kontinua depende ba rendimentu no mehi petróleu la ho diversifika ekonomia doméstika, aumenta produtividade no kria servisu ne’ebé dignu, Timor-Leste sei kontinua vulneravel ba hapara reseita petróleu.

Rekursu naturál ne’ebé limitadu tenke transforma ba kapasidade produtiva, seguransa ai-han, servisu públiku ne’ebé di’ak no ekonomia doméstika ne’ebé forte. Investimentu tenke diskute tuir kustu no benefísiu iha tempu naruk, impaktu ambientál, distribuisaun benefísiu no kapasidade instituisaun atu garante manutensaun. OJE 2027 indika despeza boot ba fantazia petrolífera, liuliu iha 2028 no tinan sira tuir mai.  Ita bele buka dalan di’ak liu atu hadi’ak familia kiak sira nia moris.

Tanba ne’e, La’o Hamutuk husu ba Governu no Parlamentu Nasionál atu trata OJE 2027 bazeia ba evidénsia, nesesidade komunidade no atu atinje rezultadu ne’ebé bele sukat. Investimentu iha agrikultura, bee, saneamentu, enerjia renovavel, saúde no edukasaun tenke responde ba povu nian nesesidade no iha planu ba manutensaun. Parseiru dezenvolvimentu sira mós tenke koordena ho prioridade nasionál, evita duplikasaun projetu no hametin kapasidade nasionál, la’ós kria dependénsia ba projetu ne’ebé para bainhira finansiamentu remata.

Konkluzaun

Redusaun taxa pobreza nasionál husi 48,4% ba 37,0% entre 2014 no 2024 nudár progresu importante ba Povu no Nasaun Timor-Leste, maske kontinua ho pobreza ne’ebé as liu iha nasaun sira iha membru ASEAN sira seluk. Maibé, taxa pobreza rurál ne’ebé aas, dezigualdade iha distribuisaun konsumu ne’ebé aumenta no dezafiu iha servisu báziku hatudu katak luta kontra pobreza tenke kontinua.

Ba La’o Hamutuk, prioridade mak transforma progresu estatístiku ba mudansa ne’ebé família sira sente iha sira nian moris loro-loron. Ida ne’e presiza polítika públika ne’ebé bazeia ba evidénsia, investimentu ne’ebé responde ba nesesidade komunidade sira nian, apoiu ba ekonomia produtiva doméstika no jestaun prudente ba Fundu Petrolíferu.

Susesu dezenvolvimentu tenke sukat husi aumenta rendimentu família, hametin seguransa ai-han, servisu ne’ebé dignu no asesu ba eletrisidade, bee no saneamentu ne’ebé seguru no sustentável. Objetivu la’ós de’it atu hamenus taxa pobreza iha estatístika, maibé atu garante katak ema hotu iha oportunidade atu moris ho dignidade no patrimóniu nasionál serve ba interese públiku no jerasaun sira tuir mai.

Timor-Leste Hetan Pontu Hamlaha Aas Liu iha Ázia Leste no Sudeste: La’o Hamutuk Husu Mudansa Estruturál, La’ós Resposta Emerjénsia De’it

 Artigu ida ne'e hanesan PDF 

Relatóriu Índise Hamlaha Globál (Global Hunger Index — GHI) 2026 atribui ba Timor-Leste pontu 32,5, iha kategoria “Sériu” (Serious), no tau Timor-Leste iha pozisaun 114 iha lista 2026. Iha Ázia Leste no Sudeste, Timor-Leste iha pontu hamlaha aas liu. Tabela GHI 2026 hatudu katak pontu Timor-Leste nian mak 27,3 iha 2018 no 32,5 iha 2026; mudansa ne’e tenke interpreta tuir metodolojia no dadus referénsia ne’ebé uza iha relatóriu foun.

Ba La’o Hamutuk, rezultadu ne’e sai alerta sériu ida kona-ba seguransa ai-han no nutrisaun iha Timor-Leste. Hamlaha no malnutrisaun la’ós de’it problema kona-ba falta ai-han maibé mós liga diretamente ho kiak, asesu limitadu ba dieta nutritiva, produsaun agríkola ne’ebé la sufisiente, dependénsia ba importasaun no polítika públika ne’ebé seidauk garante reziliénsia ba família hotu.

Ami sujere katak resposta ba hamlaha presiza la’o hamutuk ho mudansa estruturál iha ekonomia, agrikultura, nutrisaun no protesaun sosiál. Medida emerjénsia sira importante, maibé la bele sai substitutu ba investimentu ne’ebé atu prevene krize no hametin kapasidade família atu sustenta sira nian moris.

Dependénsia ba importasaun aumenta vulnerabilidade

Tuir Programa Ai-han Mundiál (World Food Programme — WFP), Timor-Leste depende ba importasaun liu 60% husi nia fornesimentu ai-han. Iha tempu hanesan, agrikultura mak sai fonte importante populasaun ba sira nian moris, maibé produsaun nafatin ki’ik tanba produtividade ne’ebé ki’ik, asesu limitadu ba merkadu no impaktu husi udan ne’ebé la regular, rai maran no inundasaun.

Dependénsia ba importasaun ida ne’e halo família sira vulneravel ba mudansa presu iha merkadu internasionál no interrupsaun iha aprovizionamentu. Bainhira produsaun lokál tun ka presu ai-han sa’e, família ho rendimentu ki’ik sira enfrenta difikuldade boot atu garante ai-han sufisiente no nutritivu ba membru hotu.

La’o Hamutuk konsidera katak soberania ai-han tenke sai prioridade nasionál. Ida ne’e la signifika atu taka merkadu ba importasaun maibé atu hametin kapasidade Timor-Leste ba prodús ai-han lokál, apoia agrikultór familiár, hadi’a distribuisaun no garante katak família hotu bele hetan ai-han ne’ebé nutritivu no iha kbiit ba sosa.

El Niño aumenta risku ba produsaun no nutrisaun

Organizasaun Meteorolójika Mundiál (World Meteorological Organization — WMO), iha nian atualizasaun loron 3 Setembru 2026, hatudu katak El Niño forma ona no iha probabilidade aas tebes atu kontinua to’o Fevereiru 2027. Fenómenu ne’e bele altera padraun udan no temperatura, no aumenta risku rai maran, manas ekstremu no impaktu ba produsaun agríkola.

Governu Timor-Leste, iha komunikadu loron 15 Outubru 2026 kona-ba preparasaun nasionál ba El Niño, hatete katak previzaun sira hatudu posibilidade atu iha udan entre Novembru 2026 no Abril 2027. Risku hirak ne’e bele afeta asesu ba bee, produsaun agríkola, saúde, nutrisaun no abastesimentu bee.

Iha loron 19 Juñu 2026, Prezidente Repúblika José Ramos-Horta apela ba Governu atu hametin preparasaun nasionál, inklui kriadór grupu servisu interministeriál no konsiderasaun kona-ba orsamentu espesiál atu apoia komunidade vulneravel.

La’o Hamutuk rekoñese nesesidade atu prepara sedu. Maibé, preparasaun tenke sai planu asaun ne’ebé klaru, ho responsabilidade institusionál, orsamentu, kalendáriu, indikadór rezultadu no mekanizmu monitorizasaun. Governu tenke foti medida antes família sira lakon produsaun, bee ka kapasidade atu sosa ai-han.

El Niño la’ós kauza úniku ba hamlaha maibé bele aumenta risku ne’ebé eziste ona tanba kiak, produsaun lokál ne’ebé fraku, infraestrutura bee ne’ebé la sufisiente no asesu limitadu ba servisu públiku. Tanba ne’e, resposta klimátika tenke liga diretamente ho polítika agríkola, nutrisaun no protesaun sosiál.

Malnutrisaun labarik mak alerta ba futuru nasaun nian

GHI 2026 uza indikadór malnutrisaun no saúde labarik ne’ebé dadus referénsia ba períodu oioin. Estimatizasaun sira hatudu katak atrazu kreximentu labarik (stunting) no malnutrisaun aguda (wasting) kontinua sai dezafiu sériu ba Timor-Leste. Númeru sira ne’e la signifika katak indikadór hotu-hotu sukat iha 2026; tanba ne’e, tenke interpreta tuir períodu dadus no metodolojia ne’ebé relatóriu uza.

WFP mós informa katak análize Klasifikasaun Integrada ba Faze Seguransa Ai-han (Integrated Food Security Phase Classification — IPC), ne’ebé publika iha 2024, identifika uma-kain 27% ho inseguransa ai-han aguda. Análize kustu dieta ne’ebé atualiza iha 2023 hatudu katak 75% uma-kain la iha kapasidade atu selu ba dieta nutritiva, no kustu ai-han aumenta 78% entre 2019 no 2023. Dadus hirak ne’e refere ba períodu diferente, maibé hatudu nafatin difikuldade estruturál ne’ebé família barak enfrenta atu hetan dieta nutritiva.

Malnutrisaun labarik la’ós problema saúde nian de’it maibé bele afeta kreximentu, dezenvolvimentu kognitivu, aprendizajen no oportunidade iha futuru. Tanba ne’e, prevensaun no tratamentu malnutrisaun tenke sai prioridade nasionál, liu husi ligasaun entre saúde, nutrisaun, agrikultura, bee moos, saneamentu, edukasaun no protesaun sosiál.

Governu tenke asegura katak inan isin rua, inan fó-susu no labarik sira hetan apoiu nutritivu no servisu saúde ne’ebé apropriadu. Sentru saúde hotu-hotu mós presiza iha kapasidade atu deteta no trata malnutrisaun, no fó suplementasaun mikronutriente tuir orientasaun saúde públika.

Prioritiza povu nia moris, agrikultura familiár no soberania ai-han

La’o Hamutuk defende prinsipiu dezenvolvimentu sustentavel ne’ebé fó prioridade ba povu nian nesesidade, justisa sosiál no sustentabilidade ekonómika. Rekursu públiku limitadu tenke uza ho responsabilidade no transparénsia, ho konsiderasaun ba benefísiu diretu ba família no kapasidade produtiva nasionál.

Investimentu iha agrikultura familiár, irrigasaun, armazenamentu bee no ai-han, apoiu tékniku ba agrikultór, fini ne’ebé adapta ba kondisaun lokál no asesu ba merkadu bele hametin produsaun, kria oportunidade servisu no hamenus vulnerabilidade ba mudansa presu iha merkadu internasionál.

Programa merenda eskolár mós bele liga nutrisaun labarik ho produsaun nasionál. Bainhira programa sosa ai-han hosi agrikultór lokál tuir padraun kualidade no presu ne’ebé justu, nia bele ajuda labarik hetan hahán nutritivu no kria merkadu mais estavel ba produtór ki’ik sira.

Ba La’o Hamutuk, soberania ai-han la bele limita ba deklarasaun polítika maibé presiza apoiu finanseiru, polítika públika no mekanizmu implementasaun ne’ebé konkretu, ne’ebé rezultadu bele sukat no públiku bele monitoriza.

Rekomendasaun ba asaun imediata no mudansa estruturál

La’o Hamutuk husu Governu atu foti medida sira tuirmai:

1. Hametin protesaun sosiál ba família vulneravel, Identifika no fornese apoia sedu ba uma kain sira ne’ebé iha risku aas ba inseguransa ai-han, liu-liu iha komunidade ne’ebé sofre falta bee, produsaun agríkola menus ka asesu limitadu ba merkadu. Apoiu tenke bazeia ba dadus atualizadu, kritériu transparente no mekanizmu ne’ebé garante ajuda to’o ba família ne’ebé presiza.
   
   
2. Aumenta investimentu iha agrikultura familiár, Prioritiza irrigasaun, armazenamentu bee, fini ne’ebé adapta ba kondisaun lokál, formasaun téknika no apoiu ba agrikultór. Medida hirak ne’e tenke adapta ba kondisaun klimátika no nesesidade komunidade ida-idak.
   
   
3. Liga merenda eskolár ho produsaun lokál, Hadi’a programa merenda eskolár atu garante ai-han nutritivu ba labarik no aumenta oportunidade merkadu ba agrikultór ki’ik sira. Governu tenke publika informasaun kona-ba produsaun ne’ebé fa’an no sosa, kritériu selesaun fornese¬dór, kualidade ai-han no ezekusaun orsamentu.
   
   
4. Hametin servisu nutrisaun no saúde, Asegura deteksaun sedu ba malnutrisaun, tratamentu apropriadu, suplementasaun mikronutriente tuir orientasaun saúde públika, no monitorizasaun kreximentu labarik. Prioridade tenke fó ba inan isin-rua, inan fó-susu no labarik ki’ik sira.
   
   
5. Publika planu asaun no orsamentu ba El Niño, Governu tenke hatudu medida preparasaun no resposta, instituisaun responsavel, orsamentu alokadu, kalendáriu implementasaun no indikadór rezultadu. Informasaun kona-ba ezekusaun orsamentu no benefisiáriu tenke asesivel ba Parlamentu Nasionál, sosiedade sivíl, media no komunidade.
   
   
6. Hametin monitorizasaun no akontabilidade, Publika dadus atualizadu kona-ba presu ai-han, disponibilidade bee, produsaun agríkola, inseguransa ai-han no nutrisaun. Dadus ne’e tenke uza ba orienta desizaun públika no permite avaliasaun independente kona-ba rezultadu polítika no programa Governu nian.

Apelu ba media no públiku

La’o Hamutuk husu jornalista no media atu halo kobertura kle’an, independente no bazeia ba evidénsia kona-ba hamlaha, malnutrisaun, produsaun agríkola no preparasaun ba El Niño. Media iha papél importante atu hato’o informasaun ne’ebé loos, fó espasu ba komunidade afetada no monitoriza implementasaun kompromisu Governu nian.

La’o Hamutuk husu mós ba instituisaun públika, parseiru dezenvolvimentu, organizasaun agrikultór no komunidade atu hamutuk defende medida ne’ebé responde ba nesesidade imediata no muda kauza estruturál husi inseguransa ai-han.

Timor-Leste presiza resposta emerjénsia bainhira povu hasoru risku, maibé presiza liu tan polítika no investimentu ne’ebé bele hamenus família sira nian vulnerabilidade iha futuru. Seguransa ai-han tenke sai prioridade públika permanente, la’ós resposta temporária bainhira krize mosu.

Referénsia

• Global Hunger Index. (2026). Timor-Leste
  
  
• Global Hunger Index. (2026). Global Hunger Index 2026: Rankings, Scores & Country Data
  
  
• World Food Programme. (2025). Timor-Leste Country Strategic Plan (2026–2030)
  
  
• World Meteorological Organization. (2026, 3 September). El Niño set to become very strong, raising risks of extreme weather into 2027
  
  
• Governu Timor-Leste. (2026, 15 Outubru). Governo reforça preparação nacional para os impactos do El Niño
  
  
• TATOLI. (2026, 19 Juñu). Ramos-Horta convenes Government and United Nations to strengthen national preparedness for El Niño

TimorGAP’s Acquisition of Osaka Gas’ 10% Interest in Greater Sunrise

  Ligasaun ba artigu ida ne'e iha lian Tetum  

On 2 September 2026, TimorGAP, E.P. announced that it had reached a binding agreement with Osaka Gas Australia Pty Ltd to acquire their 10% participating interest in the Greater Sunrise project. The transaction covers Osaka Gas Australia’s interests in Production Sharing Contracts PSC 03-19 and PSC 03-20, together with retention leases NT/RL2 and NT/RL4, pending the finalization of a new single Production Sharing Contract under the Maritime Boundary Treaty between Timor-Leste and Australia. If completed, TimorGAP’s participating interest will increase from 56.56% to 66.56%, while Woodside will retain 33.44%. TimorGAP said that the acquisition will help accelerate outstanding work and facilitate the selection of a development concept for the Timor LNG option, but this remains unclear.

An increase in participating interest is an important development, but participation should not be confused with public benefit. A larger project interest may give Timor-Leste greater influence over joint venture decisions, development priorities and strategic negotiations. At the same time, however, a larger participating interest will increase the financial obligations associated with appraisal, development and infrastructure, as well as exposure to delays, cost escalation, financing costs and commercial uncertainty. The central public-interest question is therefore not simply how large Timor-Leste’s participation is, but what that participation will cost and what net benefit it can realistically deliver to the people of Timor-Leste.

On 24 September, the Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources, Francisco da Costa Monteiro, said that the acquisition price could not yet be disclosed publicly. He also acknowledged that increasing TimorGAP’s participation from 56.56% to 66.56% would increase the State’s financing requirements. Without public disclosure of the transaction’s value and financing structure, citizens and Parliament cannot independently determine the immediate financial cost of the acquisition or the scale of the additional obligations that may arise from it.

The Government and TimorGAP should therefore make clear how the acquisition will be financed, what commitments will follow from the additional participating interest, what guarantees or contingent liabilities may arise, and which public entity will ultimately bear those risks. These are not merely corporate questions. When a State-owned company participates in a major petroleum project using public capital and public institutional support, the financial consequences can ultimately affect the country’s fiscal position and the wealth belonging to present and future generations.

Timor-Leste has already experienced the financial complexity of Greater Sunrise participation. In 2018, the Government agreed to acquire the interests of ConocoPhillips and Shell, giving TimorGAP a 56.56% interest in Greater Sunrise. The acquisition cost $650 million and was financed through a loan from the Petroleum Fund to TimorGAP and its subsidiaries. The loan carries a contracted interest rate of 4.5% compounded annually.

The subsequent financial history demonstrates why this exposure requires careful scrutiny. TimorGAP’s Greater Sunrise investment was written down to zero in its 2020 financial statements, reflecting uncertainty surrounding the project. BCTL’s subsequent reporting shows that the value of the Petroleum Fund’s loan has also been affected by uncertainty surrounding the timing and scale of future cash flows from Greater Sunrise. At the end of 2025, the Petroleum Fund’s loan was valued at $561 million on a fair-value basis, while TimorGAP’s reported liability was $875 million.

The repayment schedule itself illustrates the problem. When the loan was made, repayments were expected to begin in 2028 and be completed by 2033. Recently, the Ministry of Finance suggested that they be delayed by five years, although no formal action has been taken.

This matters because Greater Sunrise is not yet producing revenue. Gas beneath the seabed becomes public revenue only through a chain of technical, commercial, legal and financial conditions: development approval, a viable project concept, infrastructure, financing, market access, commercial agreements, an agreed fiscal regime and the institutional capacity to manage a project of this scale. The IMF has described Greater Sunrise as a potential source of substantial future export receipts and public revenue, while also warning that the financing of Timor-Leste’s large equity stake could create fiscal risks during the development phase.

The current timetable reinforces the need for caution. On 24 September 2026, the Petroleum Minister stated that three major documents relating to the development of Greater Sunrise—the Petroleum Mining Code, the Production Sharing Contract and the fiscal regime—had been finalized, but that they were still undergoing internal processes in Timor-Leste and Australia. He hoped that production would begin around 2034, later than the previously stated target of 2032.

Osaka Gas Australia’s decision to divest its 10% participating interest also deserves careful examination, but it should not be used to support conclusions that are not established by evidence. Osaka Gas has publicly identified Sunrise as a pre-development asset within its portfolio. Its decision to sell the interest may reflect its own corporate portfolio strategy. It does not, by itself, demonstrate that Greater Sunrise is not commercially viable, although the lack of outside commercial investors raises doubts. At the same time, TimorGAP’s acquisition should not be seen as proof that the project will generate substantial financial returns for Timor-Leste. Both propositions require evidence.

Opportunity cost is key. Public capital and attention devoted to one long-duration project is not available for other priorities. Timor-Leste continues to face major structural challenges in agriculture, food production, fisheries, local industry, renewable energy, infrastructure, education, health and employment. The IMF has repeatedly warned that capital-intensive projects with limited linkages to the broader economy can carry high opportunity costs and has called for stronger economic diversification and better project appraisal.

The question is therefore not whether Timor-Leste should use its non-renewable natural resources, nor whether petroleum development should be rejected in principle. The more fundamental question is whether each additional dollar of public exposure to an extractive project produces greater and more sustainable public value than alternative uses of that dollar.

TimorGAP’s financial record makes this question particularly important. TimorGAP has depended almost entirely on public funding, with subsidies from the state budget totaling $362 million since 2011. This raises doubts about the company’s capacity to absorb additional financial responsibilities without transferring greater risk to the State and, ultimately, to the public.

There is also an important question about capital expenditure. La’o Hamutuk estimates upstream capital expenditure for Greater Sunrise to be approximately US$13 billion, without the LNG plant or Tasi Mane Project. TimorGAP’s increased participation will increase its share of this cost from $7.4 to $8.7 billion.

The State should publish the economic and financial analysis used to justify the acquisition,. If the transaction is expected to increase Timor-Leste’s public benefit, the Government should demonstrate that conclusion through evidence. If it increases financial exposure, the public should be able to understand the scale of that risk. Commercial confidentiality should not be used to justify withholding information about public financial commitments. Transparency is not merely an administrative requirement, it is an element of economic sovereignty and public accountability.

An extractive-development strategy also creates a broader intergenerational question. Greater Sunrise may eventually provide export earnings, government revenues and economic activity. However, non-renewable resources are finite. The strategic objective should therefore be to use resource wealth to build an economy that becomes progressively less dependent on extractive income, not more dependent on it. Petroleum revenues that are converted into productive agriculture, human capital, renewable energy, local enterprise, resilient infrastructure and diversified employment can contribute to a stronger economic foundation after petroleum production declines.

This is particularly important for Timor-Leste because the country’s development challenge is not simply to extract more value from natural resources. It is to transform natural-resource wealth into durable economic capabilities. A State-owned petroleum company can contribute to that objective only if its investments are governed by rigorous appraisal, transparency, institutional discipline and a clear public-interest mandate.

The acquisition of Osaka Gas Australia’s 10% participating interest should therefore be understood not simply as an increase from 56.56% to 66.56%, but as a potentially significant increase in Timor-Leste’s financial and institutional exposure to Greater Sunrise. The additional participation may increase influence over the project, but influence has a cost. That cost needs to be disclosed, evaluated and publicly debated.
The fundamental question is not, “How much participation does Timor-Leste have?” It is: “What will this participation cost, who will bear the risks, and what will the people receive in return?”

Economic sovereignty is not simply becoming a larger participant in the oil and gas sector. It also requires the capacity to protect public wealth, manage risks prudently, test major investments against their opportunity costs, and ensure that finite natural-resource wealth is transformed into a more productive, diversified and sustainable economy.

La’o Hamutuk calls on the Government, TimorGAP and the National Parliament to ensure that no additional public financial exposure is accepted without transparent disclosure, rigorous independent assessment and meaningful public accountability. Parliament should exercise its oversight role; relevant institutions should publish the evidence underlying major financial decisions; and civil society, universities, journalists and affected communities should have adequate information to examine and question the assumptions on which those decisions are based.

Greater Sunrise may eventually become an important source of public revenue and economic activity for Timor-Leste. However, its potential value must be assessed against the financial commitments, risks and opportunity costs that arise before revenues can be realized.

Ultimately, the measure of Greater Sunrise should not be the size of Timor-Leste’s participating interest, but whether that participation creates lasting public value. For a country seeking greater economic sovereignty, natural-resource wealth should serve as a means of building productive capacity, diversifying the economy and expanding opportunities for future generations, rather than becoming an end in itself.

La’o Hamutuk urges the Government, TimorGAP, Parliament and the wider public to insist on transparency, evidence and accountability before further public resources and obligations are committed to Greater Sunrise. This is not only about one petroleum project; it demonstrates how Timor-Leste will govern its nonrenewable resources, protect the public interest and choose its economic future.