Pobreza iha Timor-Leste: Taxa Pobreza Nasionál Tun, Maibé kontinua nafatin Dezigualdade Ekonómika no Dezafiu Estruturál

Institutu Nasionál Estatístika Timor-Leste (INETL), I.P., hamutuk ho Ministériu Finansa, publika sumáriu husi rezultadu Peskiza Padraun Moris iha Timor-Leste 2024 (TLSLS 2024). Peskiza ida ne’e hala’o entre Abril no Outubru 2024, ho amostra uma-kain hamutuk 7.424, atu avalia situasaun pobreza, dezigualdade no kondisaun moris iha Timor-Leste. Rezultadu husi peskiza fó baze importante ba diskusaun públika no formulasaun polítika publika ne’ebé responde ba povu nian nesesidade. Infelizmente, ami nota katak, laiha informasaun no dados sira relevante kada tinan lima no dados peskiza ida ne’e publika tarde liu tinan rua hafoin peskiza.

Ba La’o Hamutuk, dadus hirak ne’e tenke analiza ho kritika no transparente atu garante katak progresu ne’ebé rejista iha estatístika tradús ba hadi’ak povu nian moris no hamenus dezigualdade iha sosiedade.

Relatóriu peskiza hatudu katak taxa pobreza nasionál tun husi 48,4% iha 2014 ba 37,0% iha 2024. Ida ne’e reprezenta redusaun pontu 11,4% durante períodu tinan sanulu. Maibé, importante atu nota katak valór 48,4% ba 2014 mak estimativa ne’ebé ajusta liu husi métodu estatístiku atu permite komparasaun ho 2024. Valór ida ne’e la hanesan ho estimativa 41,8% ne’ebé relata iha publikasaun orijinál kona-ba 2014, tanba estimativa rua ne’e bazeia ba métodu ne’ebé diferente. Tanba ne’e, komparasaun dokumentu rua tenke uza valór ne’ebé metodolojikamente komparável, atu evita interpretasaun sala kona-ba evolusaun pobreza iha Timor-Leste. Durante tinan 10 populasaun Timor-Leste aumenta 16.5%. nune’e, númeru ema moris iha pobreza aumenta.

Redusaun taxa pobreza nasionál nudár progresu importante ba povu no nasaun Timor-Leste. Maibé, rezultadu ida ne’e la signifika katak problema pobreza rezolve ona ka família sira hotu hetan benefísiu husi dezenvolvimentu ho maneira iguál. Taxa pobreza nasionál fó vizaun jerál, maibé presiza analiza mós distribuisaun pobreza, dezigualdade, rendimentu família, oportunidade servisu no asesu ba nesesidade bázika. Situasaun ida ne’e importante atu komprende se progresu ekonómiku lori benefísiu ba populasaun tomak ka benefísiu sira konsentra liu iha grupu balu.

Pobreza rurál no urbana: diferensa ne’ebé kontinua boot

TLSLS 2024 hatudu katak disparidade entre área rurál no urbana kontinua boot. Iha 2024, taxa pobreza iha área rurál 44,45%, kompara ho 18,43% iha área urbana. Ida ne’e signifika katak ema ne’ebé hela iha área rurál enfrenta pobreza ne’ebé grave liu kompara ho ema ne’ebé hela iha área urbana.

Tuir estimativa, ema na’in 523,000 ne’ebé moris iha situasaun pobreza, husi númeru ne’e, ema na’in 449,000, ka besik 86%, hela iha área rurál. Dadus ida ne’e hatudu katak pobreza iha Timor-Leste iha disparidade jeográfika ne’ebé klaru. Taxa pobreza iha área rurál la’ós de’it aas liu duké iha área urbana, maibé maioria ema sira ne’ebé moris iha situasaun pobreza mós hela iha área rurál.

Diferensa ida ne’e presiza hetan atensaun espesífika husi Governu, Parlamentu Nasionál no parseiru dezenvolvimentu sira. Polítika públika tenke haree ba obstákulu estruturál ne’ebé limita família rurál atu hadi’a sira nian moris, inklui falta oportunidade servisu, produtividade agrikultura ne’ebé ki’ik, asesu limitadu ba merkadu, transporte ne’ebé karu, infraestrutura ne’ebé seidauk sufisiente no asesu ba servisu báziku ne’ebé la hanesan iha fatin hotu. Ita mós presiza fó atensaun katak pobreza ne’ebé tun iha area urbana mós kontribui maka’as husi despeza públiku ne’ebé barak liu mai husi levantamentu Fundu Petrolíferu, Fundu ne’ebé ameasa atu hotu durante dékada ida tuir mai ka sedu liu.

Maibé, diferensa entre área rurál no urbana la bele diskute de’it husi lokálizasaun maibé presiza analiza mós fonte rendimentu, tipu empregu, produtividade, kustu moris, propriedade no asesu ba rekursu produtivu. Análize ne’ebé fahe dadus tuir munisípiu, seksu, idade, grupu rendimentu no tipu atividade ekonómika sei bele ajuda identifika grupu sira ne’ebé presiza apoiu prioritáriu no polítika saida mak bele responde ba sira nian nesesidade.

Pobreza  la’ós de’it problema individuál ka família ida-idak nian situasaun sósiu ekonómiku maibé mós iha relasaun ho estrutura ekonómika, distribuisaun oportunidade, asesu ba servisu públiku no orientasaun investimentu estadu. Tanba ne’e, hamenus pobreza presiza polítika ne’ebé la limita ba asisténsia temporária, maibé hametin kapasidade família no komunidade atu hetan rendimentu sustentável no asesu ba nesesidade bázika.

Dezigualdade ekonómika aumenta maski pobreza tun

Aleinde redusaun taxa pobreza, TLSLS 2024 hatudu katak dezigualdade ekonómika aumenta. Koefisiente Gini, indikadór estatístiku ne’ebé uza atu sukat dezigualdade iha distribuisaun, aumenta husi 0,31 iha 2014 ba 0,36 iha 2024. Iha indikadór ida ne’e, valór besik zero hatudu distribuisaun ne’ebé iguál liu, enkuantu valór besik ida hatudu dezigualdade ne’ebé aas liu. Aumentu 0,05 pontu Gini hatudu katak dezigualdade iha distribuisaun konsumu aumenta durante períodu ne’e.

Situasaun ida ne’e hatudu katak redusaun pobreza no redusaun dezigualdade la’ós rezultadu ne’ebé automatikamente akontese hamutuk. Pobreza bele tun, maibé se aumentu konsumu ka rendimentu la akontese ho ekuidade, diferensa entre grupu sira iha sosiedade bele sai boot liu tan.

Maibé, Koefisiente Gini de’it la deskreve kauza dezigualdade ka identifika grupu sira ne’ebé hetan benefísiu boot liu husi dezenvolvimentu. Atu komprende dinámika ida ne’e, presiza analiza distribuisaun konsumu tuir grupu rendimentu, diferensa entre área rurál no urbana, fonte rendimentu, empregu, transferénsia sosiál no asesu ba rekursu ekonómiku. Análize ne’e tenke mós haree ba distribuisaun benefísiu husi despeza públika, investimentu privadu no oportunidade ekonómika.

Ba La’o Hamutuk, avaliasaun dezenvolvimentu la bele haree de’it taxa kreximentu PIB ka redusaun taxa pobreza nasionál. Presiza hatene se mak hetan benefísiu husi kreximentu, se mak kontinua hela iha kotuk no oinsá polítika públika bele hamenus dezigualdade. Governu no INETL tenke publika análize desagregadu no informasaun metodolójiku ne’ebé klaru, atu sosiedade bele komprende no avalia mudansa ne’ebé akontese. Presiza mós nota katak, presiza uza Gini atu halo komparasaun maibé menus ema riku sira iha Timor-Leste mak partisipa iha peskiza ida ne’e, nune’e la dun iha reprezentasaun signifikante ruma. 

Progresu iha servisu báziku tenke akompaña ho kualidade no sustentabilidade

TLSLS 2024 mós hatudu progresu iha asesu ba infraestrutura bázika. Entre 2014 no 2024, persentajen populasaun ne’ebé la iha asesu ba eletrisidade tun husi 27,9% ba 1,7%. Persentajen populasaun ne’ebé la iha asesu ba bee hemu seguru tun husi 25,4% ba 9,1%, enkuantu persentajen ne’ebé la iha asesu ba saneamentu adekuadu tun husi 39,6% ba 24,4%. Iha períodu hanesan, persentajen populasaun ne’ebé hela iha uma ne’ebé relatóriu konsidera adekuada aumenta husi 22,4% ba 42,6%.

Progresu hirak ne’e importante ba hadi’a kondisaun moris, maibé dadus kona-ba asesu la signifika automatikamente katak servisu hirak ne’e iha kualidade di’ak, funsiona durante tempu tomak, kustu asesivel ka sustentável. Família sira bele iha ligasaun eletrisidade, maibé kontinuidade fornesimentu no kustu atu selu ba eletrisidade mós afeta sira nian moris – liu-liu folin atu selu ba eletrisidade sa’e liu tan bainhira Timor-Leste sofre rai naruk fiskál. Hanesan mós, asesu ba fonte bee la garante katak bee seguru no sufisiente ho maneira sustentavel.

Tanba ne’e, polítika públika labele limite de’it ba infraestrutura ne’ebé harii ka númeru uma-kain ne’ebé hetan asesu, maibé mós kualidade, estavel, sustentavel, kustu no manutensaun servisu. Informasaun kona-ba ezekusaun orsamentál, kustu operasaun, rezultadu no benefisiáriu tenke disponivel ba públiku, atu permite komunidade no Parlamentu Nasionál monitoriza prestasaun servisu.

Iha setór enerjia, dependénsia ba kombustivel solar husi importasaun no kustu operasaun ba sistema eletrisidade presiza hetan análize transparente. Investimentu iha enerjia renovavel, efisiénsia enérjetika no manutensaun rede tenke sai parte husi estratéjia nasionál ne’ebé buka hametin seguransa enérjetika no hamenus vulnerabilidade ba mudansa iha folin importasaun. Polítika ne’e mós presiza konsidera kapasidade família atu selu no kustu tomak durante tempu naruk.

Iha setór bee, asesu ba fonte bee la garante katak komunidade hetan bee seguru no sufisiente, estavel no sustentavel. Mudansa klimátika, udan ne’ebé la regulár, infraestrutura limitadu no jestaun rekursu bele aumenta komunidade nian vulnerabilidade. Tanba ne’e, protesaun bee-matan, rekolla no armazenamentu bee-udan, manutensaun ba sistema abastesimentu no monitorizasaun kualidade bee tenke sai prioridade. Planeamentu ba bee no enerjia mós tenke iha koordenasaun di’ak, liu-liu bainhira hasai bee husi rai ne’ebé depende ba eletrisidade.

Pobreza rurál no nesesidade atu hametin ekonomia doméstika

Agrikultura iha papél importante iha família rurál sira nian moris, seguransa ai-han no ekonomia nasionál. Tuir Organizasaun Nasoins Unidas ba Ai-han no Agrikultura (FAO), agrikultura kontribui 16,7% ba Produtu Internu Brutu (PIB) iha 2023 no sai fonte moris ba parte boot husi populasaun. FAO mós hatudu katak produtividade agrikultura kontinua ki’ik, ho obstákulu ne’ebé inklui asesu limitadu ba ekipamentu, irrigasaun, merkadu no ligasaun valór produtu. Tuir konta nasionál INETL, agrikultura kontribui 20.4% iha 2025.

Maibé, kontribuisaun agrikultura ba PIB la signifika katak agrikultór ki’ik sira hetan rendimentu adekuadu ka katak família rurál sira hotu iha seguransa ai-han. Produtór sira presiza asesu ba bee no irrigasaun, ekipamentu, asisténsia téknika, armazenamentu, transporte, kréditu ne’ebé apropriadu no merkadu ne’ebé justu.

Investimentu públiku tenke responde ba nesesidade hirak ne’e, la’ós liu de’it husi projetu infraestrutura boot, maibé mós liu husi apoiu prátiku ba agrikultura familiár no negósiu lokál. Aumenta produtividade, hamenus lakon produtu antes, durante no hafoin koleta, hadi’a ligasaun entre produtór no merkadu, no dezenvolve prosesamentu produtu iha rai-laran bele ajuda aumenta rendimentu família no kria oportunidade servisu.

Governu presiza mós konsidera oinsá polítika komérsiu, importasaun, transporte no infraestrutura sira bele afeta produtór lokál sira, parte sira interesada halo kampaña no edukasaun populár hodi sosa no konsumu produtu lokál atu kontribui ba hetan solusaun signifikante ba dezafiu existente. Investimentu iha produsaun doméstika tenke akompaña ho apoiu tékniku, asesu merkadu no planeamentu ne’ebé permite agrikultór sira hetan benefísiu husi sira nian produtu. La ho medida hirak ne’e, aumentu investimentu la garante katak produsaun aumenta ka rendimentu família sai di’ak liu tan.

Pobreza la’ós problema rendimentu de’it , maibé iha relasaun ho nutrisaun, saúde, edukasaun, bee hemu seguru, saneamentu no uma ne’ebé seguru ne’ebé bele influensia kapasidade família sira atu aprende, servisu no partisipa iha vida públika. Tanba ne’e, polítika publika kontra pobreza presiza iha estratéjia integradu, ho prioridade ba komunidade rurál no família sira ne’ebé enfrenta falta nesesidade bázika oioin. Programa sira tenke dezenvolve ho partisipasaun komunidade, inklui feto, joven, ema ho defisiénsia no grupu sira ne’ebé normálmente menus asesu ba prosesu desizaun.

OJE 2027 no Fundu Petrolíferu: rekursu públiku tenke transforma ekonomia

Orsamentu Jerál Estadu (OJE) nudár instrumentu importante atu uza rekursu públiku ba hadi’a povu nian moris. Proposta OJE 2027 ho montante biliaun $2.6 ne’ebé agora daudaun iha prosesu apresiasaun parlamentár no tuir kalendáriu sira durante fulan outobru no novembru sei halo audiénsia parlamentár no komisaun sei relatóriu paresér antes diskusaun iha plenária parlamentár.

Maibé, montante orsamentu de’it seidauk garante ba redusaun pobreza se despeza sira la ajuda atu aumenta produtividade, rendimentu família no oportunidade servisu. Parlamentu Nasionál no parte interesada sira labele avalia de’it montante hira mak Governu husu atu gasta, maibé mós diskute atu gasta oinsá, sé mak hetan benefísiu, no rezultadu ne’e sustentável ka lae.

Programa prinsipál sira tenke publika objetivu ne’ebé bele sukat, liña baze, benefisiáriu, prazu, kustu, entidade responsavel no indikadór husi rezultadu sira. Informasaun kona-ba ezekusaun orsamentál no rezultadu tenke disponivel ho regularidade no iha formatu ne’ebé públiku bele asesu. Ida ne’e permite Parlamentu, parte interesada hotu no komunidade sira bele diskute rekursu públiku bele prodús mudansa real iha povu nian moris ka lae.

Fundu Petrolíferu nudár patrimóniu nasionál ne’ebé depende ba rekursu naturál ne’ebé la renovavel. Tanba ne’e, nian utilizasaun tenke trata tuir sustentabilidade fiskál, benefísiu sosiál no ekonómiku, kapasidade produtiva ne’ebé harii no direitu jerasaun sira iha futuru. Se despeza públika kontinua depende ba rendimentu no mehi petróleu la ho diversifika ekonomia doméstika, aumenta produtividade no kria servisu ne’ebé dignu, Timor-Leste sei kontinua vulneravel ba hapara reseita petróleu.

Rekursu naturál ne’ebé limitadu tenke transforma ba kapasidade produtiva, seguransa ai-han, servisu públiku ne’ebé di’ak no ekonomia doméstika ne’ebé forte. Investimentu tenke diskute tuir kustu no benefísiu iha tempu naruk, impaktu ambientál, distribuisaun benefísiu no kapasidade instituisaun atu garante manutensaun. OJE 2027 indika despeza boot ba fantazia petrolífera, liuliu iha 2028 no tinan sira tuir mai.  Ita bele buka dalan di’ak liu atu hadi’ak familia kiak sira nia moris.

Tanba ne’e, La’o Hamutuk husu ba Governu no Parlamentu Nasionál atu trata OJE 2027 bazeia ba evidénsia, nesesidade komunidade no atu atinje rezultadu ne’ebé bele sukat. Investimentu iha agrikultura, bee, saneamentu, enerjia renovavel, saúde no edukasaun tenke responde ba povu nian nesesidade no iha planu ba manutensaun. Parseiru dezenvolvimentu sira mós tenke koordena ho prioridade nasionál, evita duplikasaun projetu no hametin kapasidade nasionál, la’ós kria dependénsia ba projetu ne’ebé para bainhira finansiamentu remata.

Konkluzaun

Redusaun taxa pobreza nasionál husi 48,4% ba 37,0% entre 2014 no 2024 nudár progresu importante ba Povu no Nasaun Timor-Leste, maske kontinua ho pobreza ne’ebé as liu iha nasaun sira iha membru ASEAN sira seluk. Maibé, taxa pobreza rurál ne’ebé aas, dezigualdade iha distribuisaun konsumu ne’ebé aumenta no dezafiu iha servisu báziku hatudu katak luta kontra pobreza tenke kontinua.

Ba La’o Hamutuk, prioridade mak transforma progresu estatístiku ba mudansa ne’ebé família sira sente iha sira nian moris loro-loron. Ida ne’e presiza polítika públika ne’ebé bazeia ba evidénsia, investimentu ne’ebé responde ba nesesidade komunidade sira nian, apoiu ba ekonomia produtiva doméstika no jestaun prudente ba Fundu Petrolíferu.

Susesu dezenvolvimentu tenke sukat husi aumenta rendimentu família, hametin seguransa ai-han, servisu ne’ebé dignu no asesu ba eletrisidade, bee no saneamentu ne’ebé seguru no sustentável. Objetivu la’ós de’it atu hamenus taxa pobreza iha estatístika, maibé atu garante katak ema hotu iha oportunidade atu moris ho dignidade no patrimóniu nasionál serve ba interese públiku no jerasaun sira tuir mai.

Timor-Leste Hetan Pontu Hamlaha Aas Liu iha Ázia Leste no Sudeste: La’o Hamutuk Husu Mudansa Estruturál, La’ós Resposta Emerjénsia De’it

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Relatóriu Índise Hamlaha Globál (Global Hunger Index — GHI) 2026 atribui ba Timor-Leste pontu 32,5, iha kategoria “Sériu” (Serious), no tau Timor-Leste iha pozisaun 114 iha lista 2026. Iha Ázia Leste no Sudeste, Timor-Leste iha pontu hamlaha aas liu. Tabela GHI 2026 hatudu katak pontu Timor-Leste nian mak 27,3 iha 2018 no 32,5 iha 2026; mudansa ne’e tenke interpreta tuir metodolojia no dadus referénsia ne’ebé uza iha relatóriu foun.

Ba La’o Hamutuk, rezultadu ne’e sai alerta sériu ida kona-ba seguransa ai-han no nutrisaun iha Timor-Leste. Hamlaha no malnutrisaun la’ós de’it problema kona-ba falta ai-han maibé mós liga diretamente ho kiak, asesu limitadu ba dieta nutritiva, produsaun agríkola ne’ebé la sufisiente, dependénsia ba importasaun no polítika públika ne’ebé seidauk garante reziliénsia ba família hotu.

Ami sujere katak resposta ba hamlaha presiza la’o hamutuk ho mudansa estruturál iha ekonomia, agrikultura, nutrisaun no protesaun sosiál. Medida emerjénsia sira importante, maibé la bele sai substitutu ba investimentu ne’ebé atu prevene krize no hametin kapasidade família atu sustenta sira nian moris.

Dependénsia ba importasaun aumenta vulnerabilidade

Tuir Programa Ai-han Mundiál (World Food Programme — WFP), Timor-Leste depende ba importasaun liu 60% husi nia fornesimentu ai-han. Iha tempu hanesan, agrikultura mak sai fonte importante populasaun ba sira nian moris, maibé produsaun nafatin ki’ik tanba produtividade ne’ebé ki’ik, asesu limitadu ba merkadu no impaktu husi udan ne’ebé la regular, rai maran no inundasaun.

Dependénsia ba importasaun ida ne’e halo família sira vulneravel ba mudansa presu iha merkadu internasionál no interrupsaun iha aprovizionamentu. Bainhira produsaun lokál tun ka presu ai-han sa’e, família ho rendimentu ki’ik sira enfrenta difikuldade boot atu garante ai-han sufisiente no nutritivu ba membru hotu.

La’o Hamutuk konsidera katak soberania ai-han tenke sai prioridade nasionál. Ida ne’e la signifika atu taka merkadu ba importasaun maibé atu hametin kapasidade Timor-Leste ba prodús ai-han lokál, apoia agrikultór familiár, hadi’a distribuisaun no garante katak família hotu bele hetan ai-han ne’ebé nutritivu no iha kbiit ba sosa.

El Niño aumenta risku ba produsaun no nutrisaun

Organizasaun Meteorolójika Mundiál (World Meteorological Organization — WMO), iha nian atualizasaun loron 3 Setembru 2026, hatudu katak El Niño forma ona no iha probabilidade aas tebes atu kontinua to’o Fevereiru 2027. Fenómenu ne’e bele altera padraun udan no temperatura, no aumenta risku rai maran, manas ekstremu no impaktu ba produsaun agríkola.

Governu Timor-Leste, iha komunikadu loron 15 Outubru 2026 kona-ba preparasaun nasionál ba El Niño, hatete katak previzaun sira hatudu posibilidade atu iha udan entre Novembru 2026 no Abril 2027. Risku hirak ne’e bele afeta asesu ba bee, produsaun agríkola, saúde, nutrisaun no abastesimentu bee.

Iha loron 19 Juñu 2026, Prezidente Repúblika José Ramos-Horta apela ba Governu atu hametin preparasaun nasionál, inklui kriadór grupu servisu interministeriál no konsiderasaun kona-ba orsamentu espesiál atu apoia komunidade vulneravel.

La’o Hamutuk rekoñese nesesidade atu prepara sedu. Maibé, preparasaun tenke sai planu asaun ne’ebé klaru, ho responsabilidade institusionál, orsamentu, kalendáriu, indikadór rezultadu no mekanizmu monitorizasaun. Governu tenke foti medida antes família sira lakon produsaun, bee ka kapasidade atu sosa ai-han.

El Niño la’ós kauza úniku ba hamlaha maibé bele aumenta risku ne’ebé eziste ona tanba kiak, produsaun lokál ne’ebé fraku, infraestrutura bee ne’ebé la sufisiente no asesu limitadu ba servisu públiku. Tanba ne’e, resposta klimátika tenke liga diretamente ho polítika agríkola, nutrisaun no protesaun sosiál.

Malnutrisaun labarik mak alerta ba futuru nasaun nian

GHI 2026 uza indikadór malnutrisaun no saúde labarik ne’ebé dadus referénsia ba períodu oioin. Estimatizasaun sira hatudu katak atrazu kreximentu labarik (stunting) no malnutrisaun aguda (wasting) kontinua sai dezafiu sériu ba Timor-Leste. Númeru sira ne’e la signifika katak indikadór hotu-hotu sukat iha 2026; tanba ne’e, tenke interpreta tuir períodu dadus no metodolojia ne’ebé relatóriu uza.

WFP mós informa katak análize Klasifikasaun Integrada ba Faze Seguransa Ai-han (Integrated Food Security Phase Classification — IPC), ne’ebé publika iha 2024, identifika uma-kain 27% ho inseguransa ai-han aguda. Análize kustu dieta ne’ebé atualiza iha 2023 hatudu katak 75% uma-kain la iha kapasidade atu selu ba dieta nutritiva, no kustu ai-han aumenta 78% entre 2019 no 2023. Dadus hirak ne’e refere ba períodu diferente, maibé hatudu nafatin difikuldade estruturál ne’ebé família barak enfrenta atu hetan dieta nutritiva.

Malnutrisaun labarik la’ós problema saúde nian de’it maibé bele afeta kreximentu, dezenvolvimentu kognitivu, aprendizajen no oportunidade iha futuru. Tanba ne’e, prevensaun no tratamentu malnutrisaun tenke sai prioridade nasionál, liu husi ligasaun entre saúde, nutrisaun, agrikultura, bee moos, saneamentu, edukasaun no protesaun sosiál.

Governu tenke asegura katak inan isin rua, inan fó-susu no labarik sira hetan apoiu nutritivu no servisu saúde ne’ebé apropriadu. Sentru saúde hotu-hotu mós presiza iha kapasidade atu deteta no trata malnutrisaun, no fó suplementasaun mikronutriente tuir orientasaun saúde públika.

Prioritiza povu nia moris, agrikultura familiár no soberania ai-han

La’o Hamutuk defende prinsipiu dezenvolvimentu sustentavel ne’ebé fó prioridade ba povu nian nesesidade, justisa sosiál no sustentabilidade ekonómika. Rekursu públiku limitadu tenke uza ho responsabilidade no transparénsia, ho konsiderasaun ba benefísiu diretu ba família no kapasidade produtiva nasionál.

Investimentu iha agrikultura familiár, irrigasaun, armazenamentu bee no ai-han, apoiu tékniku ba agrikultór, fini ne’ebé adapta ba kondisaun lokál no asesu ba merkadu bele hametin produsaun, kria oportunidade servisu no hamenus vulnerabilidade ba mudansa presu iha merkadu internasionál.

Programa merenda eskolár mós bele liga nutrisaun labarik ho produsaun nasionál. Bainhira programa sosa ai-han hosi agrikultór lokál tuir padraun kualidade no presu ne’ebé justu, nia bele ajuda labarik hetan hahán nutritivu no kria merkadu mais estavel ba produtór ki’ik sira.

Ba La’o Hamutuk, soberania ai-han la bele limita ba deklarasaun polítika maibé presiza apoiu finanseiru, polítika públika no mekanizmu implementasaun ne’ebé konkretu, ne’ebé rezultadu bele sukat no públiku bele monitoriza.

Rekomendasaun ba asaun imediata no mudansa estruturál

La’o Hamutuk husu Governu atu foti medida sira tuirmai:

1. Hametin protesaun sosiál ba família vulneravel, Identifika no fornese apoia sedu ba uma kain sira ne’ebé iha risku aas ba inseguransa ai-han, liu-liu iha komunidade ne’ebé sofre falta bee, produsaun agríkola menus ka asesu limitadu ba merkadu. Apoiu tenke bazeia ba dadus atualizadu, kritériu transparente no mekanizmu ne’ebé garante ajuda to’o ba família ne’ebé presiza.
   
   
2. Aumenta investimentu iha agrikultura familiár, Prioritiza irrigasaun, armazenamentu bee, fini ne’ebé adapta ba kondisaun lokál, formasaun téknika no apoiu ba agrikultór. Medida hirak ne’e tenke adapta ba kondisaun klimátika no nesesidade komunidade ida-idak.
   
   
3. Liga merenda eskolár ho produsaun lokál, Hadi’a programa merenda eskolár atu garante ai-han nutritivu ba labarik no aumenta oportunidade merkadu ba agrikultór ki’ik sira. Governu tenke publika informasaun kona-ba produsaun ne’ebé fa’an no sosa, kritériu selesaun fornese¬dór, kualidade ai-han no ezekusaun orsamentu.
   
   
4. Hametin servisu nutrisaun no saúde, Asegura deteksaun sedu ba malnutrisaun, tratamentu apropriadu, suplementasaun mikronutriente tuir orientasaun saúde públika, no monitorizasaun kreximentu labarik. Prioridade tenke fó ba inan isin-rua, inan fó-susu no labarik ki’ik sira.
   
   
5. Publika planu asaun no orsamentu ba El Niño, Governu tenke hatudu medida preparasaun no resposta, instituisaun responsavel, orsamentu alokadu, kalendáriu implementasaun no indikadór rezultadu. Informasaun kona-ba ezekusaun orsamentu no benefisiáriu tenke asesivel ba Parlamentu Nasionál, sosiedade sivíl, media no komunidade.
   
   
6. Hametin monitorizasaun no akontabilidade, Publika dadus atualizadu kona-ba presu ai-han, disponibilidade bee, produsaun agríkola, inseguransa ai-han no nutrisaun. Dadus ne’e tenke uza ba orienta desizaun públika no permite avaliasaun independente kona-ba rezultadu polítika no programa Governu nian.

Apelu ba media no públiku

La’o Hamutuk husu jornalista no media atu halo kobertura kle’an, independente no bazeia ba evidénsia kona-ba hamlaha, malnutrisaun, produsaun agríkola no preparasaun ba El Niño. Media iha papél importante atu hato’o informasaun ne’ebé loos, fó espasu ba komunidade afetada no monitoriza implementasaun kompromisu Governu nian.

La’o Hamutuk husu mós ba instituisaun públika, parseiru dezenvolvimentu, organizasaun agrikultór no komunidade atu hamutuk defende medida ne’ebé responde ba nesesidade imediata no muda kauza estruturál husi inseguransa ai-han.

Timor-Leste presiza resposta emerjénsia bainhira povu hasoru risku, maibé presiza liu tan polítika no investimentu ne’ebé bele hamenus família sira nian vulnerabilidade iha futuru. Seguransa ai-han tenke sai prioridade públika permanente, la’ós resposta temporária bainhira krize mosu.

Referénsia

• Global Hunger Index. (2026). Timor-Leste
  
  
• Global Hunger Index. (2026). Global Hunger Index 2026: Rankings, Scores & Country Data
  
  
• World Food Programme. (2025). Timor-Leste Country Strategic Plan (2026–2030)
  
  
• World Meteorological Organization. (2026, 3 September). El Niño set to become very strong, raising risks of extreme weather into 2027
  
  
• Governu Timor-Leste. (2026, 15 Outubru). Governo reforça preparação nacional para os impactos do El Niño
  
  
• TATOLI. (2026, 19 Juñu). Ramos-Horta convenes Government and United Nations to strengthen national preparedness for El Niño

TimorGAP’s Acquisition of Osaka Gas’ 10% Interest in Greater Sunrise

  Ligasaun ba artigu ida ne'e iha lian Tetum  

On 2 September 2026, TimorGAP, E.P. announced that it had reached a binding agreement with Osaka Gas Australia Pty Ltd to acquire their 10% participating interest in the Greater Sunrise project. The transaction covers Osaka Gas Australia’s interests in Production Sharing Contracts PSC 03-19 and PSC 03-20, together with retention leases NT/RL2 and NT/RL4, pending the finalization of a new single Production Sharing Contract under the Maritime Boundary Treaty between Timor-Leste and Australia. If completed, TimorGAP’s participating interest will increase from 56.56% to 66.56%, while Woodside will retain 33.44%. TimorGAP said that the acquisition will help accelerate outstanding work and facilitate the selection of a development concept for the Timor LNG option, but this remains unclear.

An increase in participating interest is an important development, but participation should not be confused with public benefit. A larger project interest may give Timor-Leste greater influence over joint venture decisions, development priorities and strategic negotiations. At the same time, however, a larger participating interest will increase the financial obligations associated with appraisal, development and infrastructure, as well as exposure to delays, cost escalation, financing costs and commercial uncertainty. The central public-interest question is therefore not simply how large Timor-Leste’s participation is, but what that participation will cost and what net benefit it can realistically deliver to the people of Timor-Leste.

On 24 September, the Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources, Francisco da Costa Monteiro, said that the acquisition price could not yet be disclosed publicly. He also acknowledged that increasing TimorGAP’s participation from 56.56% to 66.56% would increase the State’s financing requirements. Without public disclosure of the transaction’s value and financing structure, citizens and Parliament cannot independently determine the immediate financial cost of the acquisition or the scale of the additional obligations that may arise from it.

The Government and TimorGAP should therefore make clear how the acquisition will be financed, what commitments will follow from the additional participating interest, what guarantees or contingent liabilities may arise, and which public entity will ultimately bear those risks. These are not merely corporate questions. When a State-owned company participates in a major petroleum project using public capital and public institutional support, the financial consequences can ultimately affect the country’s fiscal position and the wealth belonging to present and future generations.

Timor-Leste has already experienced the financial complexity of Greater Sunrise participation. In 2018, the Government agreed to acquire the interests of ConocoPhillips and Shell, giving TimorGAP a 56.56% interest in Greater Sunrise. The acquisition cost $650 million and was financed through a loan from the Petroleum Fund to TimorGAP and its subsidiaries. The loan carries a contracted interest rate of 4.5% compounded annually.

The subsequent financial history demonstrates why this exposure requires careful scrutiny. TimorGAP’s Greater Sunrise investment was written down to zero in its 2020 financial statements, reflecting uncertainty surrounding the project. BCTL’s subsequent reporting shows that the value of the Petroleum Fund’s loan has also been affected by uncertainty surrounding the timing and scale of future cash flows from Greater Sunrise. At the end of 2025, the Petroleum Fund’s loan was valued at $561 million on a fair-value basis, while TimorGAP’s reported liability was $875 million.

The repayment schedule itself illustrates the problem. When the loan was made, repayments were expected to begin in 2028 and be completed by 2033. Recently, the Ministry of Finance suggested that they be delayed by five years, although no formal action has been taken.

This matters because Greater Sunrise is not yet producing revenue. Gas beneath the seabed becomes public revenue only through a chain of technical, commercial, legal and financial conditions: development approval, a viable project concept, infrastructure, financing, market access, commercial agreements, an agreed fiscal regime and the institutional capacity to manage a project of this scale. The IMF has described Greater Sunrise as a potential source of substantial future export receipts and public revenue, while also warning that the financing of Timor-Leste’s large equity stake could create fiscal risks during the development phase.

The current timetable reinforces the need for caution. On 24 September 2026, the Petroleum Minister stated that three major documents relating to the development of Greater Sunrise—the Petroleum Mining Code, the Production Sharing Contract and the fiscal regime—had been finalized, but that they were still undergoing internal processes in Timor-Leste and Australia. He hoped that production would begin around 2034, later than the previously stated target of 2032.

Osaka Gas Australia’s decision to divest its 10% participating interest also deserves careful examination, but it should not be used to support conclusions that are not established by evidence. Osaka Gas has publicly identified Sunrise as a pre-development asset within its portfolio. Its decision to sell the interest may reflect its own corporate portfolio strategy. It does not, by itself, demonstrate that Greater Sunrise is not commercially viable, although the lack of outside commercial investors raises doubts. At the same time, TimorGAP’s acquisition should not be seen as proof that the project will generate substantial financial returns for Timor-Leste. Both propositions require evidence.

Opportunity cost is key. Public capital and attention devoted to one long-duration project is not available for other priorities. Timor-Leste continues to face major structural challenges in agriculture, food production, fisheries, local industry, renewable energy, infrastructure, education, health and employment. The IMF has repeatedly warned that capital-intensive projects with limited linkages to the broader economy can carry high opportunity costs and has called for stronger economic diversification and better project appraisal.

The question is therefore not whether Timor-Leste should use its non-renewable natural resources, nor whether petroleum development should be rejected in principle. The more fundamental question is whether each additional dollar of public exposure to an extractive project produces greater and more sustainable public value than alternative uses of that dollar.

TimorGAP’s financial record makes this question particularly important. TimorGAP has depended almost entirely on public funding, with subsidies from the state budget totaling $362 million since 2011. This raises doubts about the company’s capacity to absorb additional financial responsibilities without transferring greater risk to the State and, ultimately, to the public.

There is also an important question about capital expenditure. La’o Hamutuk estimates upstream capital expenditure for Greater Sunrise to be approximately US$13 billion, without the LNG plant or Tasi Mane Project. TimorGAP’s increased participation will increase its share of this cost from $7.4 to $8.7 billion.

The State should publish the economic and financial analysis used to justify the acquisition,. If the transaction is expected to increase Timor-Leste’s public benefit, the Government should demonstrate that conclusion through evidence. If it increases financial exposure, the public should be able to understand the scale of that risk. Commercial confidentiality should not be used to justify withholding information about public financial commitments. Transparency is not merely an administrative requirement, it is an element of economic sovereignty and public accountability.

An extractive-development strategy also creates a broader intergenerational question. Greater Sunrise may eventually provide export earnings, government revenues and economic activity. However, non-renewable resources are finite. The strategic objective should therefore be to use resource wealth to build an economy that becomes progressively less dependent on extractive income, not more dependent on it. Petroleum revenues that are converted into productive agriculture, human capital, renewable energy, local enterprise, resilient infrastructure and diversified employment can contribute to a stronger economic foundation after petroleum production declines.

This is particularly important for Timor-Leste because the country’s development challenge is not simply to extract more value from natural resources. It is to transform natural-resource wealth into durable economic capabilities. A State-owned petroleum company can contribute to that objective only if its investments are governed by rigorous appraisal, transparency, institutional discipline and a clear public-interest mandate.

The acquisition of Osaka Gas Australia’s 10% participating interest should therefore be understood not simply as an increase from 56.56% to 66.56%, but as a potentially significant increase in Timor-Leste’s financial and institutional exposure to Greater Sunrise. The additional participation may increase influence over the project, but influence has a cost. That cost needs to be disclosed, evaluated and publicly debated.
The fundamental question is not, “How much participation does Timor-Leste have?” It is: “What will this participation cost, who will bear the risks, and what will the people receive in return?”

Economic sovereignty is not simply becoming a larger participant in the oil and gas sector. It also requires the capacity to protect public wealth, manage risks prudently, test major investments against their opportunity costs, and ensure that finite natural-resource wealth is transformed into a more productive, diversified and sustainable economy.

La’o Hamutuk calls on the Government, TimorGAP and the National Parliament to ensure that no additional public financial exposure is accepted without transparent disclosure, rigorous independent assessment and meaningful public accountability. Parliament should exercise its oversight role; relevant institutions should publish the evidence underlying major financial decisions; and civil society, universities, journalists and affected communities should have adequate information to examine and question the assumptions on which those decisions are based.

Greater Sunrise may eventually become an important source of public revenue and economic activity for Timor-Leste. However, its potential value must be assessed against the financial commitments, risks and opportunity costs that arise before revenues can be realized.

Ultimately, the measure of Greater Sunrise should not be the size of Timor-Leste’s participating interest, but whether that participation creates lasting public value. For a country seeking greater economic sovereignty, natural-resource wealth should serve as a means of building productive capacity, diversifying the economy and expanding opportunities for future generations, rather than becoming an end in itself.

La’o Hamutuk urges the Government, TimorGAP, Parliament and the wider public to insist on transparency, evidence and accountability before further public resources and obligations are committed to Greater Sunrise. This is not only about one petroleum project; it demonstrates how Timor-Leste will govern its nonrenewable resources, protect the public interest and choose its economic future.

TimorGAP Sosa Osaka Gas nian Partisipasaun 10% iha Greater Sunrise

 Link to this article in English 

Iha loron 2 fulan Setembru 2026, TimorGAP, E.P. fó sai katak deside ona atu sosa partisipasaun 10% husi Osaka Gas Australia iha projetu Greater Sunrise. Tranzasaun ne’e tenke hetan aprovasaun husi Governu no autoridade sira ne’ebé relevante. Partisipasaun TimorGAP sei aumenta husi 56,56% ba 66,56%, enkuantu Woodside sei iha 33,44%. Akizisaun ida ne’e inklui interese Osaka Gas iha PSC 03-19 no PSC 03-20, no lisensa retensaun NT/RL2 no NT/RL4, durante finalizasaun PSC foun tuir Tratadu Fronteira Marítima Timor-Leste-Austrália. TimorGAP hateten katak aumentu partisipasaun ne’e sei ajuda avansa servisu pendente no prosesu hili konseitu dezenvolvimentu LNG ba Greater Sunrise, maibé seidauk klaru.

Faktu hirak ne’e hatudu katak Timor-Leste, liu husi empreza nasionál, hakarak aumenta papél iha projetu ida ne’e, maibé aumentu propriedade la bele konsidera nudár garantia katak povu sei hetan benefísiu boot liu husi projetu. Propriedade boot liu bele fó espasu atu iha influénsia boot liu iha desizaun, maibé mós bele lori responsabilidade boot liu husi aspetu finansiamentu no kustu relevante sira seluk, inklui asume risku.

Iha 24 Setembru 2026, Ministru Petróleu no Rekursu Minerál hateten katak presu akizisaun seidauk bele divulga ba públiku, Ministru ne’e mós hateten katak aumentu partisipasaun husi 56,56% ba 66,56% sei aumenta nesesidade finansiamentu husi parte Estadu. Tanba presu no estrutura finansiamentu tranzasaun foun seidauk públiku, públiku labele halo konkluzaun kona-ba nian kustu loloos. Maibé, situasaun ida ne’e rasik justifika nesesidade atu husu: osan hira mak sei gasta? osan ne’e mai husi ne’ebé? obrigasaun saida mak sei mosu hafoin husi aumenta persentajen partisipasaun iha projetu? no sé mak sei lori risku bainhira kustu aumenta?

Enkuantu TimorGAP empresta t$650 husi Fundu Petrolifeiru (FP) ba sosa partisipasaun iha Greater Sunrise husi Shell no ConocoPhillips iha 2018. TimorGAP (no Woodside) dezvaloriza ‘investimentu’ ida ne’e ba zero. BCTL dezvaloriza 39%. Tuir akordu orijinál, TG tenke hahú atu selu fali liu tokon $120 kada tinan iha 2028, maibé tanba TimorGAP sei labele, iha proposta atu adia pagamentu inisiál to’o 2033, no atu prolonga empréstimu husi 2037 ba 2042. 

Pergunta hirak ne’e importante tanba Greater Sunrise la’ós projetu ho osan ne’ebé bele tama kedas iha konta Estadu ka Fundu Petrolíferu. Rekursu gás iha rai okos presiza konseitu dezenvolvimentu ne’ebé viavel, infraestrutura, investimentu, merkadu, finansiamentu, akordu komersiál, enkuadramentu fiskál no kapasidade téknika no institusionál antes bele transforma sai rendimentu públiku. International Monetary Fund - IMF, instituisaun no parte interesada sira konsidera Greater Sunrise nudár oportunidade ida ba rendimentu ba estadu no esportasaun, maibé mós subliña katak finansiamentu husi Timor-Leste bele hamosu risku fiskál durante faze dezenvolvimentu, liuliu tanba Timor-Leste nian partisipasaun boot liu husi TimorGAP.

Presiza haree ho kuidadu husi Osaka Gas fa’an nian partisipasaun 10%, La’o Hamutuk la konsidera Osaka Gas nian desizaun atu sai hanesan evidénsia katak Greater Sunrise la viavel, tanba faktu públiku atuál la permite halo konkluzaun kona-ba ida ne’e. Hanesan ne’e mós, akizisaun husi TimorGAP labele konsidera hanesan prova katak projetu sei lori retornu signifikante ba povu Timor-Leste.

Husi perspetiva La’o Hamutuk, asuntu prinsipál la’ós de’it atu kontra ka favorese akizisaun ida ne’e maibé presiza diskute oinsá Timor-Leste uza nian patrimóniu públiku no hili nian dalan dezenvolvimentu, aumenta partisipasaun iha projetu petróleu no gás ho kustu boot bele aumenta envolvimentu Estadu iha setór estrativu. Bainhira kapitál públiku no kapasidade institusionál gasta liu tan ba projetu ida ne’e, tenke haree mós ba oportunidade ne’ebé bele lakon iha agrikultura, peska, indústria lokál, produsaun ai-han, enerjia renovavel, infraestrutura produtiva, edukasaun, saúde no empregu ba juventude.

Ida ne’e mak kustu oportunidade, Osan públiku ne’ebé kompromete ba projetu ida, la bele uza iha tempu hanesan ba prioridade estratéjiku sira seluk. Tanba ne’e, pergunta ba Governu no TimorGAP la’ós de’it se Greater Sunrise bele fó benefísiu boot ka ki’ik maibé bele husu benefísiu ne’e iha valór ka lae ho kustu no risku ne’ebé povu tenke asume, no osan ne’ebé kompromete ba projetu ne’e sei ajuda ka lae se ita uza ba harii setór ekonómiku sira seluk? Enkuantu husi 2011-2026 TimorGAP simu subsídiu husi Povu no Governu Timor-Leste hamutuk tokon $362 (la inklui tokon $650 empresta husi Fundu Petrolíferu), maibé seidauk hetan retornu.

La’o Hamutuk haree ida ne’e hanesan parte husi problema dezenvolvimentu ne’ebé boot liu: Timor-Leste tenke sai husi dependénsia ba rekursu naturál naun renovavel, la’ós aumenta dependénsia kle’an liu tan. Greater Sunrise bele sai fonte rendimentu foun no bele kontribui ba reseita fiskál no ekonomia, maibé labele sai razaun atu adia investimentu iha ekonomia produtiva, diversifikada no sustentável. Estratéjia ida ne’ebé depende liu tan ba petróleu no gás bele hamosu vulnerabilidade bainhira presu, merkadu, kustu ka kondisaun komersiál aumenta ka muda. Estratéjia ida ne’ebé uza rekursu naun renovavel ba harii kapasidade produsaun, kapitál umanu no enerjia renovavel bele ajuda prepara ekonomia ba períodu seguru no naruk bainhira petróleu no gás hotu.

Tanba ne’e, diskusaun kona-ba akizisaun 10% Osaka Gas nian labele para iha númeru 66,56% maibé presiza diskute kona-ba presu tranzasaun, fonte no estrutura finansiamentu, obrigasaun investimentu iha futuru, risku ba patrimóniu públiku, avaliasaun ekonómika no finanseira, no planu atu asegura benefísiu ba povu. Aumenta 10% partisipasaun aumenta TG nian obrigasaun ba Capex (Capital expenditure) ba Greater Sunrise husi biliaun $7.4 até biliaun $8.7. Parlamentu no instituisaun fiskalizasaun tenke haree evidénsia ne’ebé bele sustenta desizaun; jornalista no universidade bele analiza dadus; sosiedade sivíl no komunidade sira tenke husu no debate.

Transparénsia iha kazu ida ne’e la’ós buat administrativu de’it maibé nudár parte husi proteje patrimóniu estadu Nasaun no povu Timor-Leste nian. Bainhira envolve risku kontra interese públiku, povu iha direitu atu hatene saida mak Estadu, povu sei asume no tanba sa tenke asume. La’o Hamutuk enkoraja Governu no TimorGAP atu públika informasaun no dokumentu ne’ebé bele divulga legalmente, no atu akontabiliza ho klaru kona-ba valór akizisaun, obrigasaun finansiál, risku no benefísiu ne’ebé sei hetan.

Ikus liu, pergunta boot ida kona-ba Greater Sunrise la’ós “Timor-Leste iha propriedade ka partisipasaun hira?” maibé “propriedade ida ne’e sei lori kustu hira, sé mak sei asume risku, no saida mak povu sei hetan?” Soberania ekonómika la’ós de’it kona-ba sai proprietáriu boot liu iha petróleu no gás maibé mós kona-ba kapasidade atu foti desizaun ho responsabilidade, proteje osan públiku, kontrola risku no uza patrimóniu naturál atu harii futuru ida ne’ebé produtiva, diversifikada no sustentável.

Tanba ida ne’e, La’o Hamutuk enkoraja presiza iha diskusaun públiku ne’ebé livre, informadu no bazeia ba evidénsia. Akizisaun 10% husi Osaka Gas nudár desizaun ne’ebé bele afeta ba patrimóniu no futuru ekonomia Timor-Leste. Públiku no Parlamentu Nasionál iha direitu atu husu, atu hatene no atu haree evidénsia antes deside atu aumenta risku ba finansas públiku. 

LH Submete Policy Brief Kona-ba Urjénsia Diversifikasaun Ekonómika iha TL

 Link to this article in English  

Díli, 26 Agostu 2026 — La’o Hamutuk  submete Policy Brief ho títulu “Investe iha Setór Produtivu sira atu Hametin Diversifikasaun Ekonomia iha Timor-Leste” ba Governu no instituisaun relevante sira, nu’udar kontribuisaun konstrutiva ba debate nasionál kona-ba oinsá Timor-Leste bele harii ekonomia ne’ebé produtiva, diversifikadu, inkluziva, sustentável no menus dependente ba petróleu.

Policy Brief ida ne’e bazeia ba rezultadu Kolókiu Nasionál ne’ebé hala’o iha 17–18 Marsu 2026, ho kolaborasaun ho Oxfam iha Timor-Leste no Core Group Transparency (CGT). Dokumentu ne’e analiza dezafiu estruturál sira ne’ebé Timor-Leste enfrenta no hato’o rekomendasaun polítika ba tempu badak, médiu no naruk, ho objetivu atu haforsa kapasidade produtiva doméstika, hamenus dependénsia ba importasaun no rendimentu petrolíferu, no harii baze ekonómiku ne’ebé bele sustenta povu nian moris di’ak no jerasaun sira tuir mai.

Diversifikasaun Ekonomia mak Prioridade Estratéjika

Timor-Leste kontinua enfrenta dezafiu estruturál iha dezenvolvimentu ekonómiku, inklui dependénsia aas ba rendimentu petrolíferu no Fundu Petrolíferu, baze produtiva doméstika ne’ebé sei limitadu, dependénsia ba importasaun no kapasidade esportasaun naun-petrolífera ne’ebé presiza haforsa. Iha kontestu ida ne’e, La’o Hamutuk konsidera katak diversifikasaun ekonomia tenke sai prioridade estratéjika nasionál.

Diversifikasaun la’ós de’it kona-ba aumenta númeru atividade ka setór ekonomia maibé signifika muda gradualmente estrutura ekonomia husi dependénsia aas ba rendimentu petrolíferu no importasaun ba ekonomia ne’ebé iha kapasidade produtiva doméstika ne’ebé forte, kria empregu produtivu, aumenta valór produtu lokál, promove esportasaun naun-petrolífera no hamenus vulnerabilidade ba xoke ekonomia husi li’ur.

Ba La’o Hamutuk, diversifikasaun ekonómika mós tenke haree hanesan oportunidade atu uza patrimóniu petrolíferu ne’ebé limitadu no naun renovavel atu harii kapasidade ekonómika ne’ebé bele dura liu tan husi tempu util petrolíferu.

Patrimóniu naun Renovavel

Fundu Petrolíferu reprezenta patrimóniu nasionál ne’ebé mai husi rekursu petrolíferu naun renovavel. Tanba natureza naun renovavel ida ne’e, jestaun no utilizasaun patrimóniu ida ne’e presiza halo ho responsabilidade, transparénsia, prudénsia fiskál no perspetiva interjerasionál.

La’o Hamutuk konsidera katak osan ne’ebé mai husi petróleu tenke iha medida ne’ebé apropriadu no sustentável, kontribui ba formasaun kapitál produtivu no kapasidade nasionál. Investimentu iha edukasaun, saúde, agrikultura, bee, infraestrutura produtiva, kompeténsia umana, inovasaun no instituisaun públika ne’ebé forte bele ajuda transforma patrimóniu naun renovavel sai kapasidade ne’ebé bele fó benefísiu ba jerasaun sira tuir mai.

Objetivu estratéjiku la bele limita ba oinsá atu sustenta gastu públiku iha tempu badak maibé  oinsá atu uza patrimóniu naun renovavel husi petróleu atu hamenus dependénsia ba petróleu rasik. Ita la bele substitui dependénsia ba petróleu ho dependénsia ba Fundu Petrolíferu. Ita presiza uza patrimóniu naun renovavel atu harii ekonomia ne’ebé iha kapasidade atu moris no dezenvolve ho ninian baze produtiva rasik.

Agrikultura no Soberania Ai-Han Nu’udar Pilár Diversifikasaun

Agrikultura iha papél estratéjiku ba ekonomia no povu nian moris, tanba iha liga diretamente ho seguransa no soberania ai-han, empregu, rendimentu família, ekonomia rurál no dezenvolvimentu komunidade.

Policy Brief ida ne’e rekomenda atu investimentu públiku fó prioridade ba aumentu produsaun agríkola doméstika no haforsa kapasidade agrikultór sira atu responde ba nesesidade merkadu rai-laran. Ida ne’e inklui apoiu ba fini lokál, produsaun ai-han ho valór nutrisaun aas no sistema agríkola ne’ebé apropriadu ho realidade no kondisaun ekolójika Timor-Leste.

Investimentu iha agrikultura tenke la’o liu husi infraestrutura no servisu sira ne’ebé agrikultór presiza, inklui bee no irrigasaun, armazenamentu, prosesamentu, transportasaun, asesu ba merkadu, teknolojia apropriada no asisténsia téknika. Objetivu la’ós de’it atu aumenta volume produsaun, maibé atu haforsa soberania ai-han, aumenta rendimentu agrikultór, kria valór iha rai-laran no hamenus dependénsia ba importasaun ai-han.

Indústria Transformadóra no Kadeia Valór Doméstika

Timor-Leste iha potensiál atu aumenta valór husi produtu lokál, inklui kafé, kakau, nu, au, ai-kameli, produtu testil no sira seluk. Indústria transformadóra, tanba ne’e, bele sai komponente importante ida iha estratéjia diversifikasaun ekonomia. La’o Hamutuk rekomenda atu dezenvolvimentu indústria liga ho agrikultura no setór produtivu sira seluk, atu matéria prima lokál bele prosesadu liu tan iha rai laran no kria tan valór iha ekonomia doméstika.

Indústria transformadóra presiza la’o hamutuk ho investimentu iha enerjia, bee, infraestrutura, merkadu, kompeténsia profisionál no inovasaun. Polítika industriál mós tenke konsidera viabilidade ekonómika, nesesidade merkadu, impaktu sosiál, sustentabilidade ambientál no kapasidade atu opera no dezenvolve iha tempu naruk. Ba La’o Hamutuk, industriálizasaun la bele signifika de’it aumenta estrasaun rekursu naturál. Transformasaun ekonomia presiza aumenta valór iha rai laran, kria empregu produtivu, haforsa kapasidade produtiva nasionál no respeita limite ekolójiku no natureza naun renovavel rekursu naturál sira.

Juventude, Edukasaun no Kapitál Umanu

Diversifikasaun ekonomia presiza kapitál umanu ne’ebé iha koñesimentu, abilidade, inovasaun no kapasidade atu responde ba mudansa iha ekonomia no merkadu servisu.

Policy Brief ne’e rekomenda atu aumenta apoiu ba juventude sira ne’ebé hala’o atividade ekonómika, haforsa kompeténsia téknika no dijitál, promove inovasaun no hadi’a ligasaun entre edukasaun, formasaun profisionál no nesesidade merkadu servisu.

Timor-Leste mós bele aproveita esperiénsia, koñesimentu no poupansa husi sidadaun sira ne’ebé servisu iha rai li’ur, liu husi ambiente no mekanizmu apropriadu ne’ebé fasilita sira nian kontribuisaun ba ekonomia doméstika, inklui bainhira sira fila mai. Investimentu iha edukasaun no formasaun, tanba ne’e, la’ós de’it despeza sosiál maibé nudár investimentu iha soberania no kapasidade ekonómika nasaun.

Infraestrutura Produtiva, Bee no Reziliénsia Ambientál

Infraestrutura públika tenke responde ba nesesidade ekonomia produtiva no povu nian moris di’ak. Bee, eletrisidade, estrada, irrigasaun no infraestrutura ba retensaun no jestaun bee presiza planeadu ho estratéjia integradu, atu suporta produsaun, produtividade, seguransa ai-han no reziliénsia ba mudansa klimátika.

La’o Hamutuk konsidera katak investimentu públiku labele haree de’it husi montante osan ne’ebé gasta ka númeru infraestrutura ne’ebé konstrui, maibé mós bazeia ba benefísiu ne’ebé infraestrutura sira fó ba povu, produtividade ekonomia, sustentabilidade no kapasidade atu opera no mantén infraestrutura sira. Protesaun bee-matan, rai, floresta, biodiversidade no ekosistema mós tenke integra iha planeamentu ekonómika. Diversifikasaun ekonómika ne’ebé degrada baze naturál produsaun sei la bele sustentável iha tempu naruk.

Kooperativa no Setór Privadu Doméstiku

Setór privadu doméstiku no kooperativa sira iha poténsia atu sai motor importante ba diversifikasaun ekonómika, liu-liu iha área rurál no iha kadeia valór produtu lokál.

Policy Brief rekomenda dezenvolvimentu polítika kooperativa ne’ebé klaru atu enkoraja no promove kooperativa produtiva, liu-liu sira ne’ebé bele aumenta produsaun, prosesamentu, merkadu no rendimentu komunidade. Apoiu públiku ba kooperativa no negósiu doméstiku tenke bazeia ba kritériu transparente, asesu justu, responsabilidade no rezultadu ne’ebé bele sukat. Mekanizmu apoiu tenke evita kria dependénsia permanente ba subsídiu ka kontratu públiku no ajuda harii kapasidade negósiu ne’ebé sustentável.

Rekomendasaun Estratéjika ba Governu no Instituisaun Relevante Sira

Bazeia ba análize no rekomendasaun iha Policy Brief, La’o Hamutuk konvida Governu no instituisaun relevante sira atu konsidera prioridade sira tuir mai:

1.    Haforsa agrikultura no soberania ai-han

Aumenta investimentu iha produsaun doméstika, fini lokál, bee, irrigasaun, armazenamentu, prosesamentu no asesu ba merkadu, ho prioridade ba agrikultór ki’ik no ekonomia rurál.

2.    Promove indústria transformadóra no kadeia valór doméstika

Dezenvolve indústria ne’ebé aumenta valór produtu lokál, kria empregu produtivu no haforsa ligasaun entre produsaun, prosesamentu no merkadu.

3.    Prioriza infraestrutura produtiva

Integra investimentu iha bee, eletrisidade, estrada, irrigasaun no infraestrutura retensaun bee ho nesesidade ekonomia, sosiál no ambientál.

4.    Investe iha juventude no kapitál umanu

Haforsa edukasaun, formasaun profisionál, kompeténsia dijitál, peskiza, inovasaun no oportunidade ekonómika ba juventude.

5.    Haforsa kooperativa no setór privadu doméstiku

Kria ambiente regulatóriu, finanseiru no merkadu ne’ebé transparente no klaru no estavel, atu fasilita dezenvolvimentu atividade produtiva doméstika.

6.    Haforsa governansa no responsabilidade fiskál

Garante transparénsia iha planeamentu, alokasaun no ezekusaun investimentu públiku, inklui monitorizasaun, avaliasaun no responsabilidade kona-ba rezultadu.

7.    Integra sustentabilidade ambientál iha polítika ekonomia

Garante katak protesaun bee, rai, floresta, biodiversidade no reziliénsia klimátika sai parte integrante husi planeamentu no implementasaun diversifikasaun ekonomia.

Diversifikasaun Ekonomia Hanesan Dalan Atu Hamenus Dependénsia Estrativista

Ba La’o Hamutuk, dezafiu Timor-Leste la’ós de’it oinsá atu hetan fonte rendimentu foun maibé liu-liu oinsá atu muda estrutura ekonomia atu hamenus dependénsia ba modelu estrativista, ne’ebé bazeia aas liu ba estrasaun no esportasaun rekursu naturál, liu-liu rekursu ne’ebé naun renovavel.

Modelu ekonomia diversifikadu presiza fó valór boot liu tan ba produsaun, koñesimentu, traballu, inovasaun, natureza no kapasidade komunidade. Ne’e presiza haforsa kapasidade atu transforma matéria prima lokál sai produtu ho valór liu tan, kria empregu produtivu no aumenta benefísiu ne’ebé hela iha ekonomia doméstika.

Hanesan parte husi prosesu ida ne’e, polítika ekonomia presiza haree mós impaktu sosiál no ambientál husi atividade ekonomia. Rekursu naturál la bele haree de’it hanesan fonte rendimentu ka matéria prima komersiál maibé nudár parte husi patrimóniu nasionál no sa baze ba komunidade nian moris no jerasaun sira tuir mai. Tanba ne’e, diversifikasaun ekonómika presiza la’o hamutuk ho soberania ai-han, justisa sosiál, protesaun ambientál, transparénsia, partisipasaun komunidade no responsabilidade interjerasionál.

Proposta ba Diálogu no Asaun Nasionál

Liu husi submisaun Policy Brief ida ne’e, La’o Hamutuk husu Governu no instituisaun relevante sira atu konsidera evidénsia no rekomendasaun sira ne’ebé aprezenta iha prosesu planeamentu, formulasaun no implementasaun polítika ekonomia no orsamentu estadu.

La’o Hamutuk mós apela ba Parlamentu Nasionál, setór privadu, kooperativa, agrikultór, juventude, instituisaun akadémika, organizasaun sosiedade sivíl no komunidade sira atu partisipa ativamente iha debate nasionál kona-ba futuru ekonomia Timor-Leste.

Diversifikasaun ekonómika presiza lideransa polítika, planeamentu bazeia ba evidénsia, responsabilidade fiskál, transparénsia no partisipasaun públika. Maibé, susesu depende mós ba vontade no kapasidade atu transforma patrimóniu no rekursu ne’ebé iha agora sai investimentu ne’ebé haforsa povu nian kapasidade atu prodús, transforma, inova no moris ho dignidade.

Timor-Leste iha direitu no responsabilidade atu hili dalan dezenvolvimentu ne’ebé garante katak patrimóniu naturál no rekursu públiku sira serve interese povu ohin loron no jerasaun sira tuir mai. Diversifikasaun ekonómika tenke sai estratéjia atu hamenus dependénsia ba petróleu, haforsa soberania ekonómika no harii ekonomia ne’ebé produtiva, justa, sustentável no reziliente.

La’o Hamutuk hein katak Policy Brief ida ne’e bele kontribui ba diálogu polítika no debate públiku kona-ba transformasaun estrutura ekonomia Timor-Leste — husi dependénsia aas ba rekursu naun renovavel ba ekonomia ne’ebé bazeia liu tan ba kapasidade produtiva doméstika, koñesimentu, traballu, inovasaun, komunidade no rekursu sustentável.

Bele hetan, lee no fahe dokumentu Policy Brief kompletu. 

LH Submits Policy Brief on the Urgency of Economic Diversification in Timor-Leste

 Liga ba artigu ida ne'e iha lian Tetum 

Díli, 26 August 2026 — La'o Hamutuk submitted a Policy Brief entitled “Invest in Productive Sectors to Strengthen Economic Diversification in Timor-Leste” to the Government and relevant institutions, as a constructive contribution to the national debate on how Timor-Leste can build a sustainable, diverse, sustainable and inclusive economy less dependent on oil and gas exports.

This Policy Brief is based on the results of a National Colloquium on 17-18 March 2026, in collaboration with Oxfam Timor-Leste and Core Group Transparency (CGT). The document analyzes structural challenges facing Timor-Leste and makes short, medium and long term policy recommendations aimed at strengthening domestic productive capacity, reducing dependence on imports and petroleum revenues, and building an economic base that can sustain the well-being of the people and future generations.

Economic Diversification is a Strategic Priority

Timor-Leste continues to face structural challenges in economic development, including high dependence on petroleum revenues and the Petroleum Fund, a limited domestic productive base, dependence on imports and non- petroleum export capacity that needs to be strengthened. In this context, La'o Hamutuk considers that economic diversification should be a national strategic priority.

Diversification is not only about increasing the number of activities or sectors of the economy but means gradually changing the structure of the economy from a high dependence on petroleum revenues and imports to an economy that has strong domestic productive capacity, creates productive jobs, increases the value of local products, promotes non-petroleum  exports and reduces the vulnerability of the economy to foreign shocks.

For La'o Hamutuk, economic diversification must also be seen as an opportunity to use limited and non-renewable petroleum assets to build economic capacity that can last beyond the era of petroleum extraction.

Non-Renewable Assets

The Petroleum Fund represents a national asset derived from non-renewable petroleum resources. Due to its non-renewable nature, the management and use of this asset needs to be done with responsibility, transparency, fiscal prudence and an intergenerational perspective.

La'o Hamutuk considers that the money from petroleum must be spent appropriately and sustainably, contributing to the formation of productive capital and national capacity. Investment in education, health, agriculture, water, productive infrastructure, human capacity, innovation and strong public institutions can help transform non-renewable assets into capacity that will benefit future generations.

The strategic objective cannot be limited to how to sustain public spending in the short term but must include how to use non-renewable petroleum  assets to reduce dependence on petroleum  itself. We cannot replace dependence on petroleum with dependence on the Petroleum Fund. We need to use non-renewable assets to build an economy that has the capacity to survive and develop on its own productive base.

Agriculture and Food Sovereignty as Pillars of Diversification

Agriculture plays a strategic role in the economy and people's lives, as it is directly linked to food security and sovereignty, employment, family income, rural economy and community development.

This Policy Brief recommends that public investment prioritize increasing domestic agricultural production and strengthening farmers' capacity to respond to domestic market needs. This includes support for local seeds, food production with high nutritional value and agricultural systems that are appropriate to the reality and ecological conditions of Timor-Leste.

Investment in agriculture should flow through infrastructure and services that farmers need, including water and irrigation, storage, processing, transportation, market access, appropriate technology and technical assistance. The objective is not only to increase production volumes, but to strengthen food sovereignty, increase farmer incomes, create domestic value and reduce dependence on food imports.

Processing Industry and the Domestic Value Chain

Timor-Leste has the potential to increase the value of local products, including coffee, cocoa, coconut, wood, candlenut and textiles. The processing industry, therefore, can be an important component of economic diversification strategy. La'o Hamutuk recommends to develop industry linked to agriculture and other productive sectors, so that local raw materials can be further processed in the country and create more value in the domestic economy.

The processing industry needs to advance together with investment in energy, water, infrastructure, markets, professional capacity and innovation. Industrial policy should also consider economic viability, market needs, social impact, environmental sustainability and the capacity to operate and develop over the long term. For La'o Hamutuk, industrialization cannot only mean increasing natural resource extraction. Economic transformation requires increasing domestic value, creating productive jobs, strengthening national productive capacity and respecting ecological limits and the non-renewable nature of natural resources.

Youth, Education and Human Capital

Economic diversification requires human capital that has knowledge, skills, innovation and the capacity to respond to changes in the economy and the labor market.

The Policy Brief recommends increasing support for youth engaged in economic activities, strengthening technical and digital competence, promoting innovation and improving connections between education, vocational training and labor market needs.

Timor-Leste can also take advantage of the experience, knowledge and savings of citizens who work abroad, through appropriate environments and mechanisms that facilitate their contribution to the domestic economy, including after they return. Investment in education and training, therefore, is not only a social expenditure but an investment in the sovereignty and economic capacity of the nation.

Productive Infrastructure, Water and Environmental Resilience

Public infrastructure must respond to the needs of a productive economy and people's well-being. Water, electricity, roads, irrigation and water retention and management infrastructure need to be planned with an integrated strategy, to support production, productivity, food security and resilience to climate change.

La'o Hamutuk considers that public investment cannot be seen only from the amount of money spent or the number of infrastructures built, but should also be viewed on the benefits that infrastructures provide to the people, economic productivity, sustainability and the capacity to operate and maintain infrastructure. The protection of water sources, soils, forests, biodiversity and ecosystems should also be integrated into economic planning. Economic diversification that degrades the natural base of production will not be sustainable in the long run.

Cooperatives and the Domestic Private Sector

The domestic private sector and cooperatives have the potential to be important drivers of economic diversification, especially in rural areas and in local product value chains.
The Policy Brief recommends the development of clear policies to encourage and promote productive cooperatives, especially those that can increase production, processing, market and community income. Public support for cooperatives and domestic businesses should be based on transparent criteria, fair access, accountability and measurable results. Support mechanisms should avoid creating permanent dependence on subsidies or public contracts and help build sustainable business capacity.

Strategic Recommendations to the Government and Relevant Institutions

Based on the analysis and recommendations in the Policy Brief, La’o Hamutuk invites the Government and relevant institutions to consider the following priorities:

1.    Strengthen agriculture and food sovereignty 

Increase investment in domestic production, local seeds, water, irrigation, storage, processing and market access, with priority given to smallholder farmers and rural economies.

2.    Promote processing industries and domestic value chains 

Develop industries that increase the value of local products, create productive jobs and strengthen the link between production, processing and the market.

3.    Prioritize productive infrastructure 

Integrate investment in water, electricity, roads, irrigation and water retention infrastructure with economic, social and environmental needs.

4.    Invest in youth and human capital 

Strengthen education, vocational training, digital competence, research, innovation and economic opportunities for youth.

5.    Strengthen cooperatives and the domestic private sector 

Create a transparent and clear and stable regulatory, financial and market environment to facilitate the development of domestic productive activity.

6.    Strengthen governance and fiscal accountability 

Ensure transparency in the planning, allocation and execution of public investment, including monitoring, evaluation and accountability for results.

7.    Integrate environmental sustainability into economic policy 

Ensure that the protection of water, land, forests, biodiversity and climate resilience become an integral part of planning and implementation of economic diversification.

Economic Diversification as a Way to Reduce Dependence on Extraction

For La'o Hamutuk, Timor-Leste's challenge is not only how to find new sources of income but especially how to change the economic structure to reduce dependence on the extractivist model, which is based heavily on the extraction and export of natural resources, especially non-renewable resources.

A diversified economic model needs to give greater value to production, knowledge, labour, innovation, nature and community capacity. This requires strengthening the capacity to transform local raw materials into more valuable products, creating productive jobs and increasing the benefits that stay in the domestic economy.

As part of this process, economic policy needs to consider the social and environmental impacts of economic activity. Natural resources cannot be seen only as a source of income or commercial raw material, but as part of the national heritage and the basis for the community's livelihood and future generations. Therefore, economic diversification needs to go hand in hand with food sovereignty, social justice, environmental protection, transparency, community participation and intergenerational responsibility.

Proposal for National Dialogue and Action

Through the submission of this Policy Brief, La'o Hamutuk calls on the Government and relevant institutions to consider the evidence and recommendations it presents in the processes of planning, formulating and implementing economic policy and the state budget.

La'o Hamutuk also calls on the National Parliament, the private sector, cooperatives, farmers, youth, academic institutions, civil society organizations and local communities to participate actively in the national debate on the future of Timor-Leste's economy.

Economic diversification requires political leadership, evidence-based planning, fiscal responsibility, transparency and public participation. However, success also depends on the will and capacity to transform existing assets and resources into investments that strengthen the people's capacity to produce, transform, innovate and live with dignity.

Timor-Leste has the right and responsibility to choose a development path that ensures that natural assets and public resources serve the interests of the people today and for future generations. Economic diversification must be a strategy to reduce dependence on petroleum, strengthen economic sovereignty and build a productive, fair, sustainable and resilient economy.

La'o Hamutuk hopes that this Policy Brief will contribute to policy dialogue and public debate on the transformation of Timor-Leste's economic structure — from a high dependence on non-renewable resources to an economy based more on domestic productive capacity, knowledge, labour, innovation, community and sustainable resources.

You can find, read and share the full Policy Brief document.

Komunidade Sagadate Rejeita Programa Peskiza Estrella Resources iha Rai Kultura no Rai Lisan

La’o Hamutuk hala’o monitorizasaun ba konsultasaun públika ne’ebé kompañia Estrella Resources (ESR) no Murak Rai Timor (MRT) organiza iha Suku Sagadate, Postu Administrativu Laga, Munisípiu Baucau. Enkontru ida ne’e aprezenta planu peskiza no perfurasaun minerál iha área lisensa esplorasaun ANM (MEL2023/2024).

Maibé, rezultadu husi enkontru ne’e hatudu klaru katak komunidade lokál la simu proposta ne’e. Liuliu, komunidade husi Aldeia Alasafa no Aldeia Onebuu, ne’ebé sai hanesan área prinsipál afetada, rejeita atu bele kontinua atividade peskiza no perfurasaun iha sira nian rai.

Razaun husi rejeisaun ne’e mak: rai sira ne’e la’ós de’it espasu ba moris, maibé mós rai kultura no lisan, ho fatin sagradu hanesan iha Rate Antigu Lulik, Fatin Lulik, semitériu, no bee matan ne’ebé suporta sira nian moris no agrikultura. Komunidade hato’o ho firmeza katak sira sei defende rai ne’ebé simu husi bei’ala sira no la prontu atu troka identidade kulturál ho atividade mineiru ne’ebé bele hetan impaktu ambientál no sosiál ne’ebé grave.

Durante enkontru, kompañia husu apoiu husi komunidade atu fleksibiliza espasu ne’ebé disponivel hodi hala’o peskiza. Maibé, to’o enkontru remata, la iha aseitasaun ruma atu kontinua atividade ne’e. Komunidade hatudu ona sira nian pozisaun, no kompañia dehan katak sei mai fali iha futuru atu kontinua halo aproximasaun.

La’o Hamutuk apoia direitu komunidade atu rejeita projetu ne’ebé ameasa sira nian kultura, natureza, no sistema moris lokál. Ami rekoñese nesesidade dezenvolvimentu no apoiu maneira dezenvolvimentu ne’ebé produtivu, renovavel no sustentavel, la’ós kontinua halo peskiza no produsaun ba rekursu estrativa ne’ebé bele husik venenu tóksiku ba, rai, bee, anin, ambiente, saúde públiku inklui risku sosiál no ekonómiku.

La’o Hamutuk husu ba Autoridade Nasionál Minerál (ANM) no Governu atu respeita prinsípiu Konsentimentu Livre, Previa no Informadu (FPIC), no tenke rekoñese pozisaun komunidade Alasafa no Onebuu. Ami mós husu ba Estrella Resources atu respeita vontade komunidade nian atu la kontinua projetu ida ne’ebé komunidade rasik la simu. Dezenvolvimentu ida ne’ebé di’ak tenke bazeia ba konsentimentu komunidade, la’ós presaun husi li’ur.

La’o Hamutuk sei kontinua monitoriza situasaun ida ne’e no apoia komunidade hotu–hotu inklusivamente Sagadate iha sira nian esforsu atu proteje sira nian rai, kultura, no moris sustentavel iha sira nian komunidade.