14 March 2012

Where do the Candidates Stand on the Issues?

Nearly two weeks ago, La’o Hamutuk circulated a questionnaire to all the Presidential candidates and their campaigns, asking for their views on issues important to the future of Timor-Leste.  Although several candidates or “Teams Success” told us they would respond, in the end, we did not get any answer other than printed campaign brochures. However, many candidates spoke about these topics as they campaigned around the country.

We had planned to tabulate the candidates’ responses to inform the voters, but the lack of response makes this impossible. However, we translated our questionnaire and hope that it will help focus voters’ decisions on issues, and perhaps inform the Presidential Second Round and Parliamentary elections.

Last week, La’o Hamutuk briefed journalists and others on many of these topics. Download the briefing (in English) here.
  1. Parliament recently approved a Land Law, but this law does not respect the rights of little and poor people to access land. How will you protect people’s rights?
  2. Since 2011, the Government has evicted many people. What do you think the State should do before evicting someone? What can you do to ensure good lives for vulnerable people forced to move by the development process? Do you think that non-economic (spiritual, cultural, environmental) values are as important as economic values?
  3. Many people in Timor-Leste find it hard to sustain their lives. How can the President reduce poverty in Timor-Leste?
  4. Today, Timor-Leste depends on imports. How do you think we can increase local production to reduce import dependency?
  5. Nearly 80% of Timorese people live by agriculture. What can be done to strengthen the agricultural economy?
  6. Perpetrators of crimes against humanity during the Indonesian occupation live freely with impunity. What do you think about this?
  7. How can Timor-Leste find the balance between diplomacy with Indonesia and the legal obligation to achieve accountability for 1975-1999 crimes? What is the President’s responsibility for truth, justice and accountability? How will you use your power to grant pardons and clemency?
  8. Timor-Leste has not signed and ratified the International Convention for the Protection of All Persons from Enforced Disappearance. Do you think Timor-Leste should join this Convention?
  9. The CAVR Chega! Report, Indonesian KPP-HAM, and UN Commission of Experts all recommended that the UN should create an international tribunal to try past crimes if Indonesian and Timorese processes are unable to. How can you advance the implementation of these recommendations?
  10. Bayu Undan and Kitan will be empty in 12 years. How can Timor-Leste emerge from dependency on exporting oil and gas?
  11. In every year since 2009, our Government has spent more money from the Petroleum Fund than the Estimated Sustainable Income. What do you think about this?
  12. There’s a loud debate about the development of the Greater Sunrise gas field. What are your thoughts about bringing the Sunrise pipeline to the South Coast? How can you help resolve Timor-Leste’s maritime boundaries with Australia and Indonesia?
  13. Timor-Leste is giving priority to the petroleum industry on the South Coast, rather than investing in agriculture, light industry and other sustainable sectors. Do you think this is good for our country’s future?
  14. Timor-Leste invests less in education and health than other nations. Do you think Timor-Leste should give more priority to human resources?
  15. Timor-Leste plans to borrow money from international lenders. What do you think about this?
We think every Timor-Leste citizen deserves to have their leaders answer these questions. Don't you?

12 March 2012

Borrowing from the next generation

Timor-Leste's voters will choose their next President this weekend and a new Parliament in a few months. But obligations incurred by the current Government will have to be repaid several terms of office from today. This country is about to take out the first foreign loans in its history, with plans to borrow half a billion dollars during the next four years. Link to information about current borrowing plans and how we got here.

This map shows projects in the 2012 State Budget, as well as the road west from Liquica financed by a grant from the Asian Development Bank (ADB). No loan agreements have been signed yet, although the Japanese (JICA) one for the Dili-Baucau road (blue) and the ADB loans for the Dili-Liquica and Tibar-Gleno (red) roads are imminent. The World Bank loans for the roads south from Dili (green) won't be contracted until November 2012, and others are next year or later.

The graph shows La'o Hamutuk's projections of the annual cost of repaying the loans on the map. Figures for the JICA, ADB and World Bank loans come the lenders, but those from China and the not-yet-identified financer for the South Coast Highway are estimates by La'o Hamutuk (yellow cells in the table below).

The map and graph include the following loans:

Project Financed byLoan Grace period (yrs) Term (yrs) Interest rate Total repaid
Dili-Liquica-Gleno roads ADB ADF concessional $9.1m 8 32 1.0% / 1.5% $12m
Dili-Liquica-Gleno roads ADB OCR commercial $30.9m 5 25 LIBOR + 0.19% $46m
Dili-Ainaro, Same, Ermera roads WB IDA concessional $20m 10 25 2.5% $28m
Dili-Ainaro, Same, Ermera roads WB IBRD commercial $20m 5 30 LIBOR + 0.46% $32m
Dili-Baucau road JICA concessional $68.7m 10 30 0.7% $77m
Dili drainage China Ex-Im bank $40m 10 25 3.0% $60m
Manatuto-Natarbora road ADB commercial (?) $75m 5 25 LIBOR + 0.19% $110m
Tasi Mane highway
unknown commercial $220m 10 20 4.0% $352m
Total $484m $717m

This is only the foot in the door. Some estimate that Timor-Leste may borrow six billion dollars to finance the Strategic Development Plan, and even more if we pay to build components of the Tasi Mane petroleum infrastructure project in addition to the Suai Supply Base.

03 March 2012

LH Media Briefing 9 March

An updated, expanded version of the presentation from this briefing is available for download as a PowerPoint presentation (14 MB), a color PDF (2 slides/page, 4 MB) or a black-and-white PDF (6 slides/page, 2 MB) for printing. We welcome your comments and suggestions.
Invitation to a Media Briefing
Rights and Sustainability in Timor-Leste’s Development
Friday, 9 March 2012 10:00 am – noon, followed by lunch
At La’o Hamutuk, Bebora, Dili
[Behind Dili Cathedral on the left side of the main road toward Bairro Pite.  Map]
La’o Hamutuk, a Timorese NGO, has researched, monitored and analyzed the reconstruction and development of Timor-Leste for nearly twelve years. During that time, we have developed a lot of information about past, current and future prospects on a number of key issues which relate to the political future of this country. The briefing will present a brief overview and respond to questions about the following topics:
We have received requests for interviews from many journalists coming to cover the Presidential election, and we will meet individually when asked. However, we have organized this press briefing to provide information in a more coherent, organized way, to support people who need a quick, deep understanding of Timor-Leste’s current reality and future prospects.

Information on many of these topics is on La’o Hamutuk’s website and blog.  The briefing will be in English and Tetum. Link to PDF version of this invitation.

Thank you for your interest and participation. Please let us know if you plan to attend by email to info@laohamutuk.org, phone to 332-1040 or SMS to 734-8703.

01 March 2012

If you spend $400 million, you don’t have it any more.

In late January 2012, Timor-Leste’s Ministry of Finance published the “final” Budget Books for the 2012 State Budget, which document the budget as amended and approved by Parliament and promulgated by the President. Although these books show projected spending for 2013-2016 of about $100 million per year more than the Government told Parliament when they submitted the budget last September, they do not show the Petroleum Fund withdrawals that will finance that spending.  

The Ministry told La’o Hamutuk that the increased spending comes from Parliament’s amendments to the budget, which removed $200 million for the Timor-Leste Investment Corporation but added $111 million in 2012 expenditures and earlier implementation of projects planned for future years.  According to the Ministry’s projection model, Parliament unconsciously increased expenditures in 2013-2016, although these cannot be executed until Government and Parliament enact the budgets for each year.

Compared with the 2012 Budget as presented to Parliament, the “final” budget shows larger future Estimates of Sustainable Income due to Parliament’s reduction of 2012 spending by $89 million, but it does not show reduced ESI from the projected $397 million increase in spending in 2013-2016.

In countries where most revenue comes from converting nonrenewable resource wealth into cash, policymakers often forget that spending costs money. This happens here, as demonstrated by the inconsistency in the “final” 2012 Budget Book 1.  Although the additional $397 million in spending will be financed by withdrawals from the Petroleum Fund, the balance in the fund does not reflect this, so the ESI (Estimate Sustainable Income) is unrevised. In other words, the larger withdrawals in tables 2.2 and 4.2 of Book 1 are not reflected in tables 5.8 and 5.10 of the same book, which attempt to show how much money will be in the Petroleum Fund.

The Ministry made a similar mistake when they proposed the 2011 State Budget to Parliament in late 2010, but corrected it in the final 2011 budget after La’o Hamutuk pointed out the error.

After La’o Hamutuk sent a draft of this article to the Ministry on 22 February 2012, they quickly and quietly revised 2012 Budget Book 1 on their website. We appreciate the prompt response, and hope that this is an indication of future collaboration and good will in preventing Timor-Leste from falling further into the resource curse.
Click for more information on the 2012 State Budget in English or Tetum.

16 February 2012

LH urges UN SC to focus on justice and sustainability

The UN Security Council will renew UNMIT's mandate following discussions in New York on 22-23 February.  To inform their debate, La'o Hamutuk has written the following letter to the Council, which can also be downloaded here

La’o Hamutuk, Timor-Leste Institute for Development Monitoring and Analysis
Rua Martires da Patria, Bebora, Dili, Timor-Leste
Tel: +670 3321040  email: info@laohamutuk.org  Web: www.laohamutuk.org

15 February 2012

Members of the United Nations Security Council
New York, New York, USA  10017

Dear Distinguished Members of the United Nations Security Council:

We are writing to bring some concerns to your attention prior to your meetings next week to discuss UNMIT and Timor-Leste. We expect that this will be the last year for a United Nations Peacekeeping Mission in our country. Even though time is short, we hope you will use this opportunity to start meeting some unfulfilled obligations and to lay a solid groundwork for the evolution of Timor-Leste as a stable, democratic nation, as well as for future United Nations engagement here.

La’o Hamutuk is a Timorese civil society organization which has followed UN activities in Timor-Leste since 2000, often meeting with UN officials and writing to the Security Council, especially about the unmet international commitment never to tolerate impunity for crimes against humanity.

The most recent Secretary-General’s report on UNMIT highlights several important developments but focuses on political events in Dili, rather than the situation of the majority of the Timorese population, most of whom are rural farmers. Although relations and activities among leaders are progressing fairly well, skyrocketing inflation and negligible progress in developing the non-petroleum economy are leading to increasing rural poverty and a widening gap between rich and poor.  [According to the National Statistics Directorate, year-on-year inflation was 17.4% at the end of 2011, with food at 19.8%.]

More than three billion dollars of petroleum revenue have been spent, but this has scarcely improved the lives of most people, while greatly benefiting a few. This social injustice lays the basis for insecurity and instability which threatens to undo all the UN’s good work. In about a decade, declining oil revenues will not be able to sustain an economy which totally depends on government spending and imported production, running an annual non-oil trade deficit of over a billion dollars, and about to incur debt repayment obligations.

We expect that the electoral process and formation of a new Government will go fairly smoothly, and that the conditions for UNMIT withdrawal at the end of 2012 are likely to be met, but we are less confident in Timor-Leste’s journey after that. We hope that Timor-Leste will not disappear down a memory hole, and that the Security Council will continue to pay attention to this UN “poster child” as she grows up. In particular, we encourage the Council and the UN family to help build a strong foundation for justice, equity, inclusion and sustainable economic development which will enable security for current and future generations of Timorese citizens.

We continue to be concerned by the reluctance of UNMIT, the Security Council, the international community and the government of Indonesia to exercise their responsibility to hold accountable the perpetrators of serious crimes during the illegal Indonesian invasion and occupation between 1975 and 1999, during which more than 150,000 of our people were slaughtered. The authors of these crimes against humanity, most of which were committed under the direction of the Indonesian state, continue to enjoy impunity – many are still in positions of power in Indonesia, committing similar crimes against people in West Papua.

Members of the Security Council unfairly and disingenuously place the burden of reconciliation and justice on the Timor-Leste Government and Parliament, urging Dili to enact legislation for Timor-Leste to provide reparations to survivors and to create an institution to follow up the Commission for Reception, Truth and Reconciliation (CAVR). Your governments limited the mandate of  UNMIT to assembling case files on a few hundred murders committed during 1999 –ignoring the hundreds of thousands of Timorese murdered, imprisoned, raped and tortured by Indonesian forces between 1975 and 1998, as well as Jakarta’s current facilitation of impunity for anyone who committed crimes here before and during 1999.

We call your attention to the recommendations which CAVR directed to the international community, especially to members of the Security Council and countries which supported Indonesia’s brutal, illegal occupation, which include recommendations 1.1, 1.4, 1.6, 1.7, 1.8, 1.9, 1.10, 1.11, 7.1.1, 7.1.2, 7.1.3, 7.1.7, 7.1.9, 7.1.12 and 7.2.1 (international tribunal) and 12.10 (reparations).  Council members should also encourage the Indonesian government to implement the CAVR recommendations directed to Jakarta, including 1.3, 3.2.3, 4.1.2, 4.2.7, 7.1.5 and 7.1.11, 7.5.5, 10, 11 and 12.10.

We also encourage the Council to discuss the still-relevant report of the independent UN Commission of Experts, which was put to sleep on your agenda in 2005, when Timor-Leste was one-third as old as it is today.

After laying out time frames that ended more than five years ago without their recommendations being implemented, the Experts recommended:
    525. If for any reason the above recommendations relevant to Timor-Leste and Indonesia are not initiated by the respective Governments within the time frames set out above, or are not retained by the Security Council, the Commission recommends that the Security Council adopt a resolution under Chapter VII of the Charter of the United Nations to create an ad hoc international criminal tribunal for Timor-Leste, to be located in a third State.
In their final paragraph, the Experts concluded
    531. The international community is fully aware of the story of murders, rape, torture and enforced disappearances of East Timorese in 1999 and before. These are crimes that extend beyond the responsibility of the Governments of Timor Leste and Indonesia. These are crimes that concern humanity. The Report of the Commission of Experts may provide the last opportunity for the Security Council to ensure that accountability is secured for those responsible for grave human rights violations and human suffering on a massive scale and delivery of justice for the people of Timor-Leste.
We implore you not to discard this “last opportunity” and entrench impunity for the foreseeable future. Ongoing impunity undermines future peace, stability and development. When accountability is ignored, institutional consolidation, judicial mechanisms and security forces cannot preserve the accomplishments of UN missions in Timor-Leste over the last twelve years.

Impunity is a time bomb, undermining rule of law and planting the seeds of instability and insecurity. It must be disarmed.

In our letter to the Council last November, La’o Hamutuk was disappointed with the UN’s preoccupation with maintaining security through police and military force. We urged more attention to human resources – health and education – and sustainable development, which could provide longer-lasting security from poverty, hunger and disease. We will not reiterate the argument here, although it remains critically important.

We encourage the Security Council to urge UN agencies in Timor-Leste to be more honest and outspoken, even if their priorities or conclusions are not the same as the government of the day. Only last week, a UNDP-Government conference, originally planned to discuss how developing the (currently almost non-existent) private sector in Timor-Leste could contribute to inclusive economic growth, was watered down into a discussion of cooperatives, which make only a tiny contribution to development here and which may contradict Timor-Leste’s extended-family society.

The UN can perform a valuable service to citizens of this country and the world by using its experience and expertise to encourage longer-term, practical thinking, providing information on development models appropriate to this country which will benefit its people.  In this promise-filled election year, with the ruling party dangling an unachievable vision of achieving upper-middle status by 2030 by squandering its resource birthright on wasteful petroleum industry infrastructure, truths and serious planning are often overlooked.

The UN and its agencies can help citizens, civil society and leaders from all sectors and parties develop paths which will reach more realistic goals, rather than chasing a chimera.

When UNMIT departs Timor-Leste in less than a year, we hope you will leave with a proud record, having helped this country achieve nationhood and lay a foundation for sustainable, equitable economic, legal and social security for our people. This would help fulfill the time-tested promise of the UN Charter, wherein the peoples of the United Nations expressed their determination
  • to reaffirm faith in fundamental human rights, in the dignity and worth of the human person, in the equal rights of men and women and of nations large and small, and
  • to establish conditions under which justice and respect for the obligations arising from treaties and other sources of international law can be maintained, and
  • to promote social progress and better standards of life in larger freedom,
  • to employ international machinery for the promotion of the economic and social advancement of all peoples,
Thank you for your attention, and we are happy to respond to questions or concerns.

Sincerely,
Inês Martins, Mariano Ferreira, Juvinal Dias, Charles Scheiner, Guteriano Neves

14 February 2012

Human Rights Review for TL coming up

Every four years, the United Nations Human Rights Council in Geneva conducts a process called Universal Periodic Review (UPR) on the human rights situation in every country. Timor-Leste is currently undergoing this process for the first time, and La'o Hamutuk has posted a web page with key information and documents from this process.

Following the presentation of information and submissions from several sources during 2011, a HRC Working Group reviewed Timor-Leste on 12 October 2011. The members gave many suggestions to Timor-Leste's Government, which will be discussed and adopted in a Council plenary meeting on 16 March 2012, as described on this Fact Sheet (also Tetum) from UNMIT and the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR).

Click here for information on other UN-related processes in Timor-Leste.

24 January 2012

Final 2012 budget documents online

Nearly two months after Parliament approved the 2012 state budget and more than a month after the President promulgated it, Timor-Leste's Ministry of Finance has posted the six books for the promulgated General State Budget to their website, with changes made by Parliament and some other changes. They include the final version of the Budget Law, and reduce information about borrowing and infrastructure spending after this year.

La'o Hamutuk made some of the files smaller and posted them to our page on the budget. You can also download them here: