Join pre-election briefing and debate on land rights

Invitation to a debate for political parties on land issues

Monday, 2 July 2012, 0900-1700 at Salaun Canossa, Haas-Laran, Dili
All political parties have been invited to this event, which is being organized by Rede ba Rai (Land Network). Land is a unique resource for Timor-Leste, especially for small and poor people, for whom land is a place to live, provides food, is culturally essential, and sustains their livelihoods. Access to land has created many problems since the Portuguese colonialism and Indonesian occupation, and recent proposed laws and development models could sabotage people's lives for economic reasons, turning land into a commodity. Rede ba Rai is organizing this debate, Oinsá Partidu Polítiku nia Polítika Atu Garante Povu Nia Direitu Asesu Ba Rai to help voters understand what each party and coalition plans to do about land during the next five years.
Download Tetum invitation or flyer.

Invitation to a briefing for journalists, observers and others 
Rights and Sustainability in Timor-Leste’s Development

At La’o Hamutuk, Bebora, Dili Tuesday, 3 July 2012. 10:00 am (sharp) – noon, followed by lunch 

Download this invitation in English or Tetum.
Download the briefing as a 16 MB Powerpoint, or 3 MB PDF.

The Timor-Leste Non-Governmental Organization La’o Hamutuk has monitored the development of this country since 2000. We research and analyze past and current realities, and future possibilities, in several fundamental sectors. This briefing will present an overview and respond to questions about these topics:

• Timor-Leste is the second-most petroleum-export dependent country on earth, but our oil and gas resources are limited. This determines our State, our economy and our future.
• Timor-Leste has almost no industry and an embryonic private sector, but state spending in growing faster than every country except Zimbabwe. Our “baby boom” is entering school, and we have just taken out our first foreign loans. What does the future hold?
• Current development plans, centered on physical infrastructure, will not provide a sustainable improvement in our people’s lives. The unrealistic dreams of the Tasi Mane project rely on the petroleum industry and Greater Sunrise gas, which may never come here.
• Impunity for past crimes, especially those committed as part of the Indonesian occupation, undermines the rule of law today and tomorrow.
• Land is the basis of our culture and lives, and recent events could increase injustice and conflict.

Many of the observers and journalists coming for the Parliamentary elections have asked us for interviews, and we will meet individually when requested. In addition, we are offering this briefing to give people a quick, deep understanding of aspects of Timor-Leste’s current reality and future prospects.  Non-journalists are welcome to attend. Some of this material is on La’o Hamutuk’s website and blog, including a similar briefing last May. The July briefing will primarily be in English, but we will provide information in Tetum. This map shows the location of our office, which is behind Dili Cathedral on the left side of the main road westward toward Bairro Pite.

Thank you for your interest and participation. Please let us know if you plan to attend the briefing.

For more election-related information, click here.

UN discusses poverty in Timor-Leste

Everyone knows that many people in Timor-Leste are impoverished -- and the rural poor know it far better than the economists and policy-makers in Dili and around the globe. Last week, at the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva, the world got a glimpse of Timor-Leste's reality. The UN Special Rapporteur on Extreme Poverty and Human Rights, invited by Government to visit here last November, discussed her findings with the Council and with people all over the world. Here in Dili, civil society, Government and UN staff watched it via UN webcast (photo at right).

La'o Hamutuk worked with three international NGOs to make written and video statements to the Council, supporting the Rapporteur's report and explaining that poverty here could get much worse in about ten years, when Timor-Leste's oil runs out, our youth population doubles and debt repayments escalate. For more information on the Special Rapporteur and Timor-Leste, including other documents, see http://www.laohamutuk.org/econ/SRPoverty/12SREP.htm.

Timor-Leste's Government gave qualified support to the Rapporteur's recommendations: While certain premises in the report could have taken current reality of Timor-Leste into account, we appreciate the analysis and recommendations of the Special Rapporteur."  In that regard, La'o Hamutuk encourages the Government to publish the results of the Household Income and Expenditure Survey conducted last year. According to the just-released Ministry of Finance Handover Report, "the recent Household Income and Expenditure Survey combined with others will yield new insights into poverty."

The video testimony presented by La'o Hamutuk's Ines Martins on behalf of Madre was the first time ever that an NGO participated by video in an Interactive Dialogue with a Special Rapporteur at the Human Rights Council. Below is a transcript, which is a shortened version of our written statement:

Questions for Voters to ask Political Party Campaigns

Atu hare'e blog ida ne'e iha Tetum, hili iha ne'e.

To support citizens’ participation in the election, La’o Hamutuk has published a pamphlet with questions for voters to ask each political party. You can download it as a Tetum PDF (or English) or find more information about the electoral process on La’o Hamutuk’s website.

La’o Hamutuk is a Civil Society Organization which monitors and analyzes the development process. In July, you will vote for Members of the National Parliament. This process is a democratic path to determine your future and that of the next generation.

The political campaign has already started, and we think that your participation will help future leaders to decide on good and appropriate policies for Timor-Leste’s actual situation.In addition to helping you understand each party’s program for the next five years, this will also help you vote wisely, according to your conscience.

Therefore, we are distributing some questions to help you participate in the campaign dialogue process. Voters can ask these questions of political parties when they campaign in your communities. We suggest the following questions:

Economy

• At present, half of our domestic economy and nearly all state activities are paid for with petroleum revenues. What policies will your political party undertake to continue state services and sustain people’s lives when the oil is used up and the Petroleum Fund is empty 12 years from now?
• At present, more than half of the state budget is spent on physical infrastructure, especially electricity. Only a little is allocated for human resources, like education and health. Do you think it is good to continue these priorities, or to develop the capacity of Timor-Leste’s people to carry the nation forward?
• Ten years from now, our youth population will be much larger, and unemployment may be higher than it is today. What policy will your party propose to help Timor-Leste deal with this program, and which human resources will you prioritize to develop this nation?
• Timor-Leste’s Government just began to borrow from overseas, and there is a plan to borrow much more to finance the National Strategic Development Plan. How can Timor-Leste pay back the debt, when our oil and gas is gone?
• At present, the Government prioritizes the Tasi Mane Project on the South Coast, which will rely on the Greater Sunrise gas field. If we cannot bring the Greater Sunrise pipeline to Timor-Leste, what will underpin this project? What does your political party think about this investment or spending of the people’s money?
• If Government actually develops this Tasi Mane project, does your political party think that the project will provide work for many Timorese people, or benefit rich people more than the poor? What is your party’s approach to the participation of women and men in this project?

Governance and Justice

• During its illegal occupation, Indonesia killed nearly 200,000 people, and after independence impunity continues to prevail for Indonesian generals involved in crimes against humanity in Timor-Leste. Does your party think it is important for perpetrators to be brought to court? What will your party do to end this impunity?
• Timor-Leste has not yet ratified the International Convention for the Protection of All Person from Enforced Disappearance. Does your party think we should sign and ratify it? If so, how do you think we should implement this Convention?
• Corruption is an obstacle to development, especially in countries whose state budget depends on oil revenues, like Timor-Leste. What policies will your party propose to prevent corruption, including in Public Institutions and state-owned businesses?
• At present, Timor-Leste is trying hard to join ASEAN, but nearly all ASEAN countries supported Indonesia’s illegal occupation of Timor-Leste for 24 years. What will your party do to help stop human rights violations within ASEAN, such as in Burma and West Papua?

Agriculture

• Former President Ramos-Horta vetoed three laws about access to land, because he saw that these laws could violate the rights of ordinary people. What will your party’s policy be to protect and ensure small people’s rights to access land?
• What policy will your party propose to develop a productive, sustainable economy, such as agriculture, to reduce our economic dependence on exporting nonrenewable resources? How will you reduce imports of food and basic necessities, so that Timor-Leste can achieve economic and food sovereignty?

Perguntas Eleitores ba Kampaña Partidu Politiku sira

To see this blog entry in English, click here. 
Atu lee resposta husi partidu politiku balun, hili iha ne'e.

Atu apoiu sidadaun sira nia partisipasaun iha eleisaun, La'o Hamutuk foin publika pamfletu ida ho preguntas eleitor sira bele husu ba kada partidu polítiku. Bele download iha ne'e hanesan PDF, (mos Ingles) ka hetan informasaun tan kona ba prosesu eleisaun husi LH nia website.

La’o Hamutuk nudár Organizasaun Sosiedade Sivíl ne’ebé monitor no analiza prosesu dezenvolvimentu. Iha Jullu ita-boot sira sei hili Deputadu/a sira iha Parlamentu Nasionál. Prosesu ne’e nudár dalan demokrasia atu determina futuru ita-boot sira no jerasaun futuru.

Daudauk ne’e prosesu eleitorál ba kampaña polítiku la’o hela, ami hanoin partisipasaun ita-boot sira sei ajuda futuru ukun-na’in sira atu deside polítika ne’ebé di’ak no apropriadu ba kontextu reál Timor-Leste.

Aleinde atu ajuda ita-boot sira hodi komprende kada partidu nia programa iha tinan lima oin mai, no mós bele ajuda hodi vota tuir konsiénsia no matenek.

Nune’e ami distribui perguntas atu ajuda ita-boot sira hodi partisipa ba prosesu kampaña diálogu. Eleitores sira bele utiliza kada perguntas hodi husu ba partidu polítiku sira durante sira hala’o sira nia kampaña iha fatin ne’ebé de’it.

Perguntas hirak ne’e mak hanesan tuir mai:

Ekonomia

• Daudauk ne’e, metade ekonomia rai laran no mós besik atividade estadu nian tomak finansia husi reseitas petrolíferu. Polítika saida mak ita-boot nia partidu polítiku sei halo atu kontinua servisu estadu no sustenta povu nia moris bainhira mina-rai maran no Fundu Petrolíferu sai mamuk iha tinan 12 tuir mai?
• Daudauk ne’e, liu metade orsamentu estadu gasta ba infrastrutura fízika, liu-liu eletrisidade. No aloka uitoan de’it ba rekursu umanu, hanesan edukasaun no saúde Ita hanoin di’ak atu kontinua prioridade hanesan ne’e, ka atu dezenvolve kapasidade povu Timor-Leste atu lori nasaun ba oin?
• Tinan 10 tuir mai, númeru populasaun joven sei sa’e maka’as, no dezempregu bele aumenta kompara ohin loron. Polítika saida mak ita-boot nia partidu polítiku sei trasa atu ajuda Timor-Leste hodi bele enfrenta problema ne’e, no rekursu umanu saida mak ita-boot nia partidu polítiku sei prioritiza atu dezenvolve nasaun ida ne’e?
• Governu Timor-Leste foin hahú atu empresta husi rai li’ur, no iha planu atu empresta barak liu tan atu finansia Planu Estratéjiku Dezenvolvimentu Nasionál. Oinsá Timor Leste bele selu fali tusan, bainhira mina no gás hotu ona?

• Daudauk ne’e Governu prioritiza mós projetu Tasi Mane iha Kosta Súl ne’ebé sei sadere ba kampu gas Greater Sunrise. Karik kadoras Greater Sunrise labele lori mai iha Timor-Leste, projetu ne’e atu sadere tan ba saida? Ita-boot nia partidu polítiku nia hanoin katak ne’e investimentu ka sei gasta de’it osan povu nian?
• Karik Governu dezenvolve duni projetu Tasi mane ne’e, ita nia partidu polítiku nia hanoin katak projetu ne’e sei fó servisu ba ema Timor barak? ka benefísiu de’it ema riku sira duke ema kiak? Oinsá ita nia Partidu nia aproximasaun kona-ba partisipasaun feto ho mane iha projetu ne’e?

Governasaun no Justisa

• Durante okupasaun ilegál Indonézia ne’ebé oho ema besik rihun atus rua hafoin ukun-an impunidade nafatin prevalese, ba Jenerál sira iha Indonézia ne’ebé envolve iha krime kontra umanidade iha Timor Leste, karik ita-boot nia partidu polítiku hanoin ne’e importante ba autór kriminozu sira atu ba hatán iha Tribunál? Polítika saida mak ita nia partidu sei halo atu hakotu impunidade ne’e?
• Daudauk ne’e TL seidauk ratifika Konvensaun Internasionál ba Ema Lakon (International Convention for the Protection of All Person from Enforced Disappearance), ita boot nia partidu polítiku hanoin ne’e presiza atu ratifika? Karik hakarak ratifika, oinsá atu implementa konvensaun ne’e tuir ita-boot nia partidu polítiku sei prefere?

• Korrupsaun nudár obstákulu ba dezenvolvimentu, liu-liu iha nasaun ne’ebé nia orsamentu estadu depende ba reseitas petrolíferu hanesan Timor- Leste. Polítika saida mak ita-boot nia partidu polítiku sei trasa atu prevene korrupsaun, inklui iha Institutu Públiku no Empreza Públiku iha Timor-Leste?
• Daudauk ne’e Timor-Leste esforsu an atu tama ba iha ASEAN maibé iha parte seluk, besik hotu membru ASEAN apoiu okupasaun ilegál Indonézia iha Timor- Leste durante tinan 24. Saida mak ita boot nia partidu polítiku sei halo atu ajuda hapara violasaun direitus umanu iha ASEAN laran hanesan iha Burma no Papua Barat?

Agrikultura

• Eis Prezidente Ramos-Horta veto ba lei tolu kona ba asesu ba rai tanba nia hare lei hirak ne’e bele viola direitu ba povu ki’ik. Oinsá ita boot nia polítika partidu ninian atu proteje no asegura direitu povu ki’ik sira hodi asesu ba rai?
• Polítika saida mak ita nia partidu sei trasa atu dezenvolve ekonomia produtivu ne’ebé sustentável, hanesan agrikultura, atu hamenus dependénsia ba ekonomia husi esportasaun rekursu naun-renovavel? Oinsá ita nia polítika partidu nian hodi hamenus importasaun ai han no nesesidade báziku atu Timor-Leste bele atinje soberania ekonómiku no ai han?

How Timor-Leste got Ten Billion Dollars

... and how Quickly we will Spend it all.

Liga ba artigu ida ne'e iha Tetum

La'o Hamutuk appreciates Timor-Leste's level of transparency about oil and gas revenues, and the information in this posting comes from published official sources.  We encourage everyone to read and understand these essential facts, so that you can be informed and involved in policy discussions and decision-making.

The balance in Timor-Leste's Petroleum Fund reached U.S. $10 billion two months ago, the unspent part of $13.3 billion which has been deposited into the Fund since it started in 2005. The graph at right (click on it to see it larger) has colored bars in the same sequence as the key above it and the list below. It shows where the money came from, in millions of US dollars not adjusted for inflation:

$    829m return on investing the Petroleum Fund
$        8m interest paid to ANP for delayed "profit oil" payments
$ 5,155m taxes paid by petroleum companies
$ 6,022m "profit oil" additional royalties from Bayu-Undan
$     24m royalties from Kitan oil sold at sea
$   277m royalties from Bayu-Undan gas (LNG piped to Darwin)
$   736m royalties from Bayu-Undan oil sold at sea
$     32m royalties from Elang-Kakatua oil sold at sea

The graph at right enlarges the five lowest bars on the previous graph to show the royalty (FTP -- First Tranche Petroleum) income from each field and product. Each payment is approximately 9% of the gross  revenue the companies received from selling that product during the previous month. This roughly follows the production from each field and the world market price for crude oil (red line).

Natural gas from Bayu-Undan is piped to Australia, where it is liquified and shipped to Japan. The money paid by Japanese buyers, which is linked to world market oil prices, is reflected in payments from the pipeline/LNG plant to the Bayu-Undan Joint Venture, and in royalties those companies then pay to Timor-Leste (90%) and Australia (10%).

With nonrenewable resources like oil and gas, the past does not predict the future. As the oil and gas in the Bayu-Undan and Kitan reserves are used up, production and revenues will decline. The graph at right uses oil price and inflation predictions used by Timor-Leste's Ministry of Finance, and shows that our total oil and gas reserves are only enough to support half the current level of State spending.

This could empty the Petroleum Fund by early 2022, two years before Bayu-Undan production stops, as we explained in a recent blog entry. Some people thought that our assumptions in that blog were too conservative, so we redid the calculations with more optimistic (less prudent) estimates of future oil prices.  The graph at right, based on the most recent "Reference case" projections from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows that the Petroleum Fund could be empty by 2023. That is five years later than recent policies would cause. However, the increased oil price projections over the conservative ones (average of EIA Low and Reference cases) used by the Ministry of Finance to calculate Timor-Leste's Estimated Sustainable Income extends the Petroleum Fund by only two years.

With luck, prayers, world crises and a strong global economy for the next few decades, oil sales prices might be as high as the EIA's "High case." Although we believe it would be foolhardy to plan Timor-Leste's future based on dreams, we modeled this case as well, as shown at right. It gives us only five more years -- enough time for babies born today to finish secondary school.

It will be difficult to avoid this disaster, but it is not impossible. Citizens, Government and development partners should work together to:

• Reduce growth in State expenditures, ensuring that money is spent wisely on activities that will produce a return to Timor-Leste's people.
• Invest in our people -- health care, education, sanitation, water, rural roads -- rather than in large, showy infrastructure mega-projects which mainly benefit foreign contractors and a few rich people.
• Strengthen our non-oil, productive economy, especially agriculture and light industry, to reduce dependence on imports and provide livelihoods and necessities for our people after the oil money is gone.
• Take responsibility for our own development, rather than relying on foreign investors, lenders, international oil companies, visitors, and imported goods, services and expertise. These send our money and our non-renewable resource wealth out of Timor-Leste, squandering our petroleum birthright and leaving little to show for it.

Oinsá Timor-Leste hetan dolar biliaun sanulu . . .

... no oinsá ita sei gasta tomak ho lalais.

[Link to this blog entry in English.]

La’o Hamutuk apresia nivel transparénsia Timor-Leste kona-ba reseitas gas no petróleu, no informasaun iha artigu ida ne’e mai husi fontes publikasaun ofisiál. Ami enkoraja ema-hotu atu lee no kompriende faktu esensiál sira ne’e, nune’e ita-boot sira sei hetan informasaun no involve iha diskusaun polítika no foti desizaun nian.

Iha fulan rua kotuk, saldu Fundu Petrolíferu Timor-Leste to’o ona biliaun $10, daudauk ne’e parte husi biliaun $13.3 ne’ebé seidauk gasta ne’e rai hela iha Fundu Petrolíferu dezde fundu ne’e hahú harii iha 2005. Gráfiku iha liman los (klik atu hare ho boot) iha barra koloridu tu-tuir malu ne’ebé hanesan nudár xave atu hatene informasaun iha leten ho lista iha okos. Gráfiku ne’e hatudu osan ne’e mai husi ne’ebé, iha tokon dolar Amerikanu ne’ebé la sura ho inflasaun:

t$   829 retornu husi investimentu Fundu Petrolíferu.
t$       8 funan ne’ebé selu ba ANP tanba pagamentu “lukru petróleu” ne’ebé tarde
t$5,155 taxa selu husi kompañia mina-rai
t$6,022 “Lukru petróleu” nudár royalti adisionál husi Bayu Undan
t$     24 royalti (FTP) husi fan mina-rai husi Kitan iha ró iha tasi laran
t$   277 royalti husi gas Bayu-Undan (kadoras ba Darwin LNG)
t$   736 royalti husi fan mina-rai husi Bayu-Undan iha tasi laran
t$     32 royalti husi fan mina-rai husi Elang-Kakatua iha tasi laran

Gráfiku iha liman los halo boot barra ki’ik lima iha gráfiku anterior hodi hatudu rendimentu royalti (FTP – First Tranche Petroleum) husi kada kampu no kada produtu. Kada pagamentu aproximamente 9% husi rendimentu brutu ne’ebé kompañia sira simu husi fan produtu ne’e durante fulan anterior no presu mina-rai matak iha merkadu mundiál (liña mean).

Gas natural husi Bayu-Undan dada ho kadoras ba Australia, atu halo likifasaun no tula ho ró ba Japaun. Osan ne’ebé Japonés sira selu husi sosa gas, ne’e tuir presu mina-rai mundiál refleta ba iha pagamentu husi kadoras/planta LNG ba konsorsiu Bayu-Undan, no refleta ba iha royalti ne’ebé kompañia sira selu ba Timor-Leste (90%) no Australia (10%).

Ho rekursu naun-renovavel hanesan mina-rai no gas, pasadu labele halo prediksaun ba futuru. Bainhira rezerva mina-rai no gas iha Bayu-Undan no Kitan maran tiha, produsaun no reseitas sei menus. Gráfiku iha liman los uza prediksaun presu mina-rai no inflasaun ne’ebé Ministériu Finansa Timor-Leste uza, no hatudu katak ita nia total rezerva gas no mina-rai nato’on de’it atu suporta metade gastu estadu iha nivel ohin loron.

Ida ne’e sei hamamuk Fundu Petrolíferu iha inísiu 2022, tinan rua molok produsaun Bayu-Undan remata, hanesan ami esplika iha ami nia blog foin daudauk ne’e. Ema balu hanoin katak ami nia asumsaun iha blog ne’e konservativu demais, nune’e ami halo fila fali kalkulasaun ho estimatizasaun optimistiku liu (menus prudente) ba presu mina-rai. Gráfiku iha liman los, bazeia ba projesaun “Reference case” foun liu husi Energy Information Administration (EIA) Estadus Unidus, hatudu katak Fundu Petrolíferu bele sei maran iha 2023. Ida ne’e tinan lima tan hafoin kauza polítika ohin loron nian. Maske nune’e, projesaun presu mina-rai nian ne’ebé as liu fali projesaun konservativu (entre EIA nia “Low case” no “Reference case”) ne’ebé Ministériu Finansa uza hodi kalkula Rendimentu Sustentável Estimadu Timor-Leste, sei aumenta tempu moris tinan rua de’it ba Fundu Petrolíferu.

Ho sorte, reza, krize mundiál no ekonomia global ida ne’ebé forte ba dékada balu oin mai, presu ba fan mina-rai bele sai as hanesan EIA nia “High case.” Maske ami hanoin ida ne’e sei fó risku ba futuru planeamentu Timor-Leste ne’ebé bazeia ba mehi, ami modela “case” ida ne’e mós, hanesan hatudu iha liman los. Modelu ida ne’e fó de’it ita tinan lima tan ba Fundu Petrolíferu—tempu nato’on ba labarik kosok oan sira ne’ebé moris ohin loron atu remata eskola sekundária.

Sei difisil atu evita dezastre ne’e, maibé la’ós imposivel. Sidadaun, Governu no Parseiru Dezenvolvimentu sira tenke servisu hamutuk atu:

• Redús kreximentu despeza Estadu, asegura katak osan gasta ho matenek ba atividade ne’ebé sei prodús retornu ba povo Timor-Leste.
• Investe ba iha ita nia povo – asisténsia saúde, edukasaun, sanitasaun, bee mos, estrada rurais – duke ba iha projetu infrastrutura ne’ebé boot, atraitivu ne’ebé barak liu benefisia kompañia estranjeiru sira no ema riku balu.
• Haforsa ita nia ekonomia naun petróleu no produtivu, espesialmente agrikultura no indústria ki’ik, atu redús dependénsia ba importasaun no fornese fontes rendimentu no nesesidade ba ita nia povo hafoin osan mina-rai maran hotu tiha.
• Foti responsabilidade ba ita nia dezenvolvimentu rasik, duke sadere ba investor estranjeiru, emprestador, kompañia mina-rai internasionál, vizitantes, no importasaun sasán, servisu no peritus. Ida ne’e haruka ita nia osan no riku-soin naun renovavel sai husi Timor-Leste, estraga ita nia patrimóniu petróleu no husik uitoan de’it atu hatudu ba jerasaun futuru sira.

Celebrate La'o Hamutuk's 12th Birthday

Please join us to celebrate La'o Hamutuk's 12 Birthday!

La'o Hamutuk la'o ona tinan 12!

Mai ita selebra hamutuk.

Friday, 1 June 2012.   4:30 - 9:00 pm

Sesta, 1 Juni 2012.  16.30 - 21.00 OTL

La'o Hamutuk office, Bebora, Dili

Edifisio La'o Hamutuk, Bebora, Dili